After a gauntlet of an SEC tournament, we’re down to this: the Florida Gators against the Tennessee Volunteers in the championship matchup on Sunday.
The pregame narrative: Both teams won and covered on home court against each other during the regular season, and now they’re on a neutral site in Nashville. Instead of backing a side, I’m focused on the game total for my best bet.
Check out my Tennessee vs. Florida predictions for the SEC tournament championship on March 16.
Tennessee vs. Florida predictions
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Best Bet: Under 144.5 points (-121)
If you watched any of Florida’s first two games in the SEC tournament — especially the 104-82 win over Alabama on Saturday — you might be thinking, “How on Earth can the Gators go under a total like this?”
It’s true that 11 of Florida’s past 12 games have gone over this total. But every matchup is its own beast, and I expect today’s tilt to be defence-first.
Check out our Un-Bustable Bracket Challenge
Florida can run wild and play a track-meet style of game when needed. It can also muck things up in a defensive slog.
Enter Tennessee, a team that plays at the 15th-slowest adjusted tempo in NCAA Division I, per KenPom.com.
The Gators and Volunteers both rank inside the top 10 in D-I in three significant defensive categories:
- Adjusted efficiency
- Effective field goal percentage
- 3-point percentage
Both teams attempt more than 40% of their shots from beyond the arc, so that top-notch perimeter defence is crucial for this over/under pick.
And by the way, we’ve already seen elite defence defeat elite offence in their two prior matchups.
- Jan. 7: 73-43 win for Florida (116 total points)
- Feb. 1: 64-44 win for Tennessee (108 total points)
Forget what you’ve seen from Florida in recent weeks. Points should be at a premium on Sunday.
Key stat: Unders are 10-5 when Tennessee is playing on the road or in a neutral site this season.
Quick pick
Parlay: Zakai Zeigler 15+ points, 6+ assists (+165): Zeigler completely flopped when he faced Florida on Jan. 7, and then he missed the rematch due to a knee injury.
But he’s played some excellent basketball since that gaffe against the Gators, and he’s the guy the Vols should lean on today.
- Before Jan. 8 (15 games): 11.3 PPG, 7.5 APG, 46.8 eFG%
- After Jan. 8 (17 games): 15.1 PPG, 7.1 APG, 50.6 eFG%
Zeigler has cleared this total in nine of his past 17 matchups.
Tennessee vs. Florida predictions made at 9:20 a.m. on 03/16/25
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.