Jordan Horrobin

With March Madness beginning, the road to the Final Four is now officially underway.

Among the four regions of the NCAA tournament, there are three odds-on favourites — and I’ve got my eye on one of them.

This isn’t a fully chalky list of Final Four predictions, though. Check out my March Madness best bets to win each 2025 region.

March Madness best bets: Regional picks

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Whether you’re a contrarian by nature or just want to avoid a vanilla bracket, there might be some temptation to avoid some or all of the No. 1 seeds when making your Final Four picks.

But No. 1 seeds are at the top for a reason, and history is largely on their side.

• 62 of 156 Final Four teams (39.74%) since 1985 were No. 1 seeds

• For context, Nos. 2-4 seeds account for 64 Final Four teams in that same span.

• 13 of the past 17 title winners were No. 1 seeds.

Then again, only one tournament has featured all four No. 1 seeds (2008; Kansas, Memphis, North Carolina and UCLA). So something unexpected is bound to happen.

That’s why you won’t see an all-chalk lineup in my regional winner picks.

East Region prediction

The favourites: Duke Blue Devils (-138)
The pick: Wisconsin Badgers (+1,000)
East Region odds

Let’s get my unlikeliest prediction out of the way first.

If you’ve already checked out my long shot championship picks, I’m going to start sounding like a broken record. But Wisconsin hits on some traits that I really, really like.

• The Badgers put fundamentals first. They lead NCAA Division I in free throw percentage (82.8%) and rank 17th in turnover rate (14.1%), per KenPom.com.

• They’re an experienced bunch, ranking 45th in average D-I experience and 90th in minutes continuity.

Sixth-year transfer John Tonje is one of three seniors in Wisconsin’s starting lineup, and he’s the type of go-to star that can fuel a lengthy tournament run.

Tonje averages 19.2 points and is a 90.8% free throw shooter. He shot 12-for-26 (46.2%) from 3-point range in the Big Ten tournament to lead the Badgers to the championship game.

Midwest Region pick

The favourites: Houston Cougars (+150)
The pick: Houston Cougars (+150)
Midwest Region odds

Houston underperformed as the second-overall seed in last year’s NCAA tournament, but a huge chunk of that squad is running it back as a 1-seed again.

Headlined by four returnees from last year’s starting five, the Cougars have a 67.2% minutes continuity (eighth-highest in D-I).

Houston (30-4, 19-1 Big 12) ripped through a talented pool of Big 12 foes and is 26-1 since the start of December.

The Cougars boast some seriously elite balance, ranking in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency, per KenPom.

All four of the Cougars’ losses came against tourney-bound teams — Auburn, Alabama, San Diego State, Texas Tech — and three of those were in overtime.

March Madness best bets: South Region

The favourites: Auburn Tigers (-112)
The pick: Iowa State Cyclones (+500)
South Region odds

Here’s another team that will try to make good on a second chance after failing to meet expectations last March.

Despite having KenPom’s top-ranked defence last season, the Cyclones bowed out in the Sweet 16 last year as a 2-seed. Four of five starters are back, eager for better results.

Once again, this team is built on frenzied defence and ranks in the top 15 in both turnover rate and defensive efficiency.

But the offensive numbers have notably improved over last season.

Iowa State ranks 50th in effective field goal percentage (was 100th last year) and 60th in free throw percentage (was 264th).

The toughest test for the Cyclones should be top-seeded Auburn, who Iowa State lost to earlier this season. But it was a tight game (83-81) that the Cyclones once led by 18.

West Region prediction

The favourites: Florida Gators (-120)
The pick: Florida Gators (-120)
West Region odds

Rolling with an odds-on favourite feels iffy, given how unpredictable this tournament is.

But I think Florida is just that good.

Like Houston, the Gators are a top-10 squad in both offensive and defensive efficiency.

Florida (30-4, 14-4 SEC) beat everyone in the gauntlet-like SEC this year — aside from Kentucky, who the Gators played on the road to open conference play in January.

Keep an eye on Walter Clayton Jr., the leader of Florida’s No. 1-rated offence (based on efficiency). In his past five games, Clayton is averaging 21.4 PPG on 46.8/44.4/81.3 shooting splits.

March Madness best bets made at 4:10 p.m. on 03/17/25.

The very first March Madness action of the year tips off Tuesday with a pair of First Four play-in matchups.

The pregame narrative: Can the North Carolina Tar Heels prove their doubters wrong in an 11-vs.-11 matchup? Maybe, but I still expect the San Diego State Aztecs to cover. In the earlier game, fade a pair of disastrous offences.

Check out my March Madness First Four best bets for March 18.

March Madness First Four predictions

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Best Bet: St. Francis/Alabama State under 140.5 points (-125)

It’s shocking that the St. Francis Red Flash found their way into the tournament given how atrocious their offence was in the Northeast Conference championship game.

In a nails-on-the-chalkboard game that featured just 89 total points, the Red Flash shot 31.7% from the field while sinking 3-of-7 free throws.

Their offence isn’t always that bad, but it hardly sets the world on fire. According to KenPom.com, St. Francis ranks 299th out of 364 schools in offensive efficiency.

The Alabama State Hornets aren’t much better (270th), and they’ve played a ton of low-scoring games lately.

• Unders are 8-2 in Alabama State’s past 10 games.

• In that span, the average total in Alabama State games is 131.8 points.

Offensively, the Hornets attempt a lot of 3-pointers (27.2/game, 44th-most in NCAA Division I). But that lines up well for the Red Flash, who’ve allowed a 32.3 3PT% this season (92nd in D-I).

All three of St. Francis’ conference tourney games went under this total, and the Red Flash should keep that postseason streak alive on Tuesday.

Key stat: Unders are 20-12-1 this season in Alabama State matchups, per Team Rankings, which includes an 11-7 record when the Hornets are favoured.

Quick pick

San Diego State +4.5 (-110): Many college basketball pundits and casual fans were puzzled — if not incensed — to see the North Carolina Tar Heels added to the 68-team field. And I can see why.

If you wanted to spin UNC’s situation positively, you’d say the team is 8-2 in its past 10 games and both losses came against Duke.

But if you look closer, you’ll see that the Tar Heels hardly beat anyone of merit this year.

• UNC went 1-12 in Quad 1 matchups, per BartTorvik.com.

• The Tar Heels went 0-5 against the ACC’s other tourney-bound teams (Duke, Clemson, Louisville).

Maybe they’ll scratch out a win against San Diego State, but I don’t expect that to happen comfortably. The Aztecs have an elite defence, ranking first in block rate (18.5%) and sixth in eFG% (45.3).

Both KenPom and Bart Torvik project a two-point win for UNC.

March Madness upset picks made at 4:00 p.m. ET on 03/17/2025.

Upsets are the backbone of what makes March Madness exhilarating. We know we’ll have some — it’s just a matter of picking the right ones.

The pregame narrative: The No. 12 UC San Diego Tritons haven’t lost in two months, and I expect them to keep the good times rolling against the No. 5 Michigan Wolverines. I’m also backing the No. 12 Liberty Flames and the No. 11 Drake Bulldogs.

Check out my March Madness upset picks for the first round of the NCAA tournament.

March Madness upset picks

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Best Bet: UC San Diego moneyline (+125)

Congratulations, Michigan, on a stellar run to a Big Ten tournament championship.

Your reward is a nightmarish first round matchup that requires you to travel west and face one of NCAA Division I’s hottest teams.

UC San Diego is riding the nation’s longest win streak (15 games) and should be a matchup nightmare for Michigan.

• UCSD had the best turnover margin in D-I this year, averaging a +7.3 turnover advantage per game. The Tritons forced the 8th-most turnovers while allowing the 2nd-fewest.

• Michigan committed the 23rd-most turnovers per game this season and had a -2.7 turnover disadvantage per game.

UCSD is a much smaller team than Michigan, with no rotation players taller than 6-foot-8 (while the Wolverines have two 7-footers in their starting five). But that shouldn’t rattle the Tritons’ offensive plans.

The Tritons are volume shooters from deep, attempting 49.6% of their field goals beyond the 3-point line (eighth-most in D-I).

And in its past 13 games, UCSD is shooting 40.1% from beyond the arc.

Keep in mind that Michigan is also at a situational disadvantage, having played in the last pre-tournament game on Sunday before travelling west for Thursday’s matchup in Denver.

Key stat: UC San Diego has the best ATS record in the country (25-7-0) and is 5-1 straight up as an underdog.

NCAA underdog predictions

Liberty moneyline (+235): Only two schools finished in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive eFG% — Duke and … Liberty.

Yes, the Flames benefitted from playing in Conference USA, a one-bid conference that doesn’t have any other top-100-ranked schools at KenPom.com. But that doesn’t completely explain away the Flames’ scorching shooters.

• Liberty ranks 5th in D-I in 3PT% (39.5). The Flames have five players who shoot 38.9% or better from deep on at least 2.2 attempts.

• The Flames’ offensive balance is exemplified by Taelon Peter, who leads the team in scoring (13.9 PPG) while coming off the bench. The senior D-II transfer owns a 46.0 3PT% and a 76.1 2PT%.

The No. 5 Oregon Ducks (24-9, 12-8 Big Ten) are a solid team without any glaring losses. But the Flames are a dangerous bunch on offence, and if they get hot enough, the Ducks will have problems.

Drake moneyline (+210): Drake is 18-1 since Jan. 8, and its only loss came by two points more than a month ago.

It’s great to see how well this team is gelling right now considering the roster was almost completely remade after last year’s tourney appearance.

First-year coach Ben McCollum, who led D-II Northwest Missouri State to a dynastic 11 consecutive conference titles, brought three of his best players with him to Drake.

The Bulldogs have the least D-I experience among the 68-team March Madness field (0.33 years/player), yet they absolutely dominated a decent Missouri Valley Conference.

On the flip side, the No. 6 Missouri Tigers (22-11, 10-8 SEC) had a so-so record in the vaunted SEC. Mizzou went 2-5 down the stretch.

To win as an underdog, you often need to create a disruption of some kind. Drake, which plays at the slowest adjusted tempo in D-I, has the chance to get Missouri off schedule and pull off the upset.

March Madness upset picks made at 11:50 a.m. ET on 03/17/2025.

In the 68-team, single-elimination format of March Madness, all sorts of wild and unpredictable outcomes are bound to happen. And they do.

That’s why even some of the best programs enter the tournament with odds of 30-to-1 (3.23% implied probability) or longer. You just never know how things will shake out.

Leaning into the potential for anarchy, I’ve identified three compelling March Madness long shot picks for the 2025 NCAA men’s basketball tournament.

March Madness long shot picks

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For most of the season, two teams stood out well ahead of the pack: the Duke Blue Devils and the Auburn Tigers.

Both squads are still well ahead of the rest of the field on the March Madness odds leaderboard. But they’ve shown some recent vulnerabilities that are worth highlighting.

• Auburn lost back-to-back games to close out the regular season — after losing just two previous games all year.

• Duke’s freshman megastar, Cooper Flagg, sustained an ankle injury in the ACC tournament quarterfinal. He then missed the semis and the final.

A No. 1 seed has won the national championship in six of the past seven tourneys, and Duke and Auburn are locked in as top seeds this year. But I think there are some valuable options further down the board.

Best March Madness long shot

Wisconsin Badgers (+4,500)

The Badgers have some standout traits that should make them legitimate threats to go the distance in this tourney.

• Strong showing in a tough conference: The Big Ten is projected to have eight tournament teams, per ESPN’s Joe Lunardi, which is tied for the second-most in NCAA Division I. Wisconsin went 13-7 in the Big Ten and reached the conference tournament title game.

• Fundamentally sound: Wisconsin has the No. 1 free throw percentage in the country (82.8%) and ranks 19th in offensive turnover rate (14.4%), per KenPom.com.

• Has experience: Led by a trio of seniors in the starting lineup, Wisconsin ranks 45th in the nation in average D-I experience (2.59 years).

• Has a game-breaking star: Sixth-year transfer John Tonje averages a team-high 19.1 points while shooting 39.8% from deep and 91.3% from the free-throw line.

Wisconsin doesn’t have a truly ugly loss, either. The Badgers’ worst loss came against Penn State, which is ranked No. 60 of 364 by KenPom.

I’m sometimes wary of teams that shoot a ton of 3s, and Wisconsin is one of those. But the Badgers’ NCAA-best free throw shooting provides a nice offensive safety net.

It’s been almost a decade, but coach Greg Gard has shepherded two Wisconsin squads into the Sweet 16 in his tenure. I think he has the pieces to go even further this time.

Other March Madness long shots

Gonzaga Bulldogs (+4,000)

By Gonzaga’s sky-high standards, this is a down year. The Bulldogs are 25-8, at risk of matching their lowest season win total since the Kelly Olynyk era in 2010-11.

Still, Gonzaga won another West Coast Conference tournament title and enters the Big Dance with a stellar offence:

• 2nd in PPG (86.6)
• 5th in FT% (80.1)
• 5th in turnover% (13.2)
• 11th in 2PT% (57.8)

The Zags are a March Madness staple, reaching the Sweet 16 or better in nine consecutive tournaments (including two national title appearances). Mark Few knows how to rise to the high-pressure occasion in March.

Last year’s squad ran into a Zach Edey-sized buzzsaw in the Sweet 16, but four of Gonzaga’s five starters are back for vengeance.

Like Wisconsin, there aren’t really any ugly losses to speak. All eight of the Zags’ losses came by a single-digit margin against a top-90-ranked KenPom team, and three of them were in overtime.

Clemson Tigers (+7,000)

You’re going to notice a theme now. I like experienced teams that have solid roster continuity.

Clemson fits that bill, with the eighth-most average D-I experience (3.02 years) and the 89th-most minutes continuity from last year (46.3%).

Ex-Tiger PJ Hall will be missed in this year’s tourney, but there are still plenty of contributors from last season’s Elite Eight squad.

That includes all-ACC forward Ian Schieffelin, who’s averaging close to a double-double (12.8 points, 9.4 rebounds).

Clemson is a balanced team that ranks inside the top 25 in offensive and defensive efficiency. The Tigers are also the only ACC program to beat Duke this year, and they’re 15-2 since Jan. 11.

March Madness picks made at 10:00 a.m. on 03/17/25