With March Madness beginning, the road to the Final Four is now officially underway.
Among the four regions of the NCAA tournament, there are three odds-on favourites — and I’ve got my eye on one of them.
This isn’t a fully chalky list of Final Four predictions, though. Check out my March Madness best bets to win each 2025 region.
March Madness best bets: Regional picks
Whether you’re a contrarian by nature or just want to avoid a vanilla bracket, there might be some temptation to avoid some or all of the No. 1 seeds when making your Final Four picks.
But No. 1 seeds are at the top for a reason, and history is largely on their side.
- 62 of 156 Final Four teams (39.74%) since 1985 were No. 1 seeds
- For context, Nos. 2-4 seeds account for 64 Final Four teams in that same span.
- 13 of the past 17 title winners were No. 1 seeds.
Then again, only one tournament has featured all four No. 1 seeds (2008; Kansas, Memphis, North Carolina and UCLA). So something unexpected is bound to happen.
That’s why you won’t see an all-chalk lineup in my regional winner picks.
East Region prediction
The favourites: Duke Blue Devils (-138)
The pick: Wisconsin Badgers (+1,000)
East Region odds
Let’s get my unlikeliest prediction out of the way first.
If you’ve already checked out my long shot championship picks, I’m going to start sounding like a broken record. But Wisconsin hits on some traits that I really, really like.
- The Badgers put fundamentals first. They lead NCAA Division I in free throw percentage (82.8%) and rank 17th in turnover rate (14.1%), per KenPom.com.
- They’re an experienced bunch, ranking 45th in average D-I experience and 90th in minutes continuity.
Sixth-year transfer John Tonje is one of three seniors in Wisconsin’s starting lineup, and he’s the type of go-to star that can fuel a lengthy tournament run.
Tonje averages 19.2 points and is a 90.8% free throw shooter. He shot 12-for-26 (46.2%) from 3-point range in the Big Ten tournament to lead the Badgers to the championship game.
Midwest Region pick
The favourites: Houston Cougars (+150)
The pick: Houston Cougars (+150)
Midwest Region odds
Houston underperformed as the second-overall seed in last year’s NCAA tournament, but a huge chunk of that squad is running it back as a 1-seed again.
Headlined by four returnees from last year’s starting five, the Cougars have a 67.2% minutes continuity (eighth-highest in D-I).
Houston (30-4, 19-1 Big 12) ripped through a talented pool of Big 12 foes and is 26-1 since the start of December.
The Cougars boast some seriously elite balance, ranking in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency, per KenPom.
All four of the Cougars’ losses came against tourney-bound teams — Auburn, Alabama, San Diego State, Texas Tech — and three of those were in overtime.
March Madness best bets: South Region
The favourites: Auburn Tigers (-112)
The pick: Iowa State Cyclones (+500)
South Region odds
Here’s another team that will try to make good on a second chance after failing to meet expectations last March.
Despite having KenPom’s top-ranked defence last season, the Cyclones bowed out in the Sweet 16 last year as a 2-seed. Four of five starters are back, eager for better results.
Once again, this team is built on frenzied defence and ranks in the top 15 in both turnover rate and defensive efficiency.
But the offensive numbers have notably improved over last season.
Iowa State ranks 50th in effective field goal percentage (was 100th last year) and 60th in free throw percentage (was 264th).
The toughest test for the Cyclones should be top-seeded Auburn, who Iowa State lost to earlier this season. But it was a tight game (83-81) that the Cyclones once led by 18.
West Region prediction
The favourites: Florida Gators (-120)
The pick: Florida Gators (-120)
West Region odds
Rolling with an odds-on favourite feels iffy, given how unpredictable this tournament is.
But I think Florida is just that good.
Like Houston, the Gators are a top-10 squad in both offensive and defensive efficiency.
Florida (30-4, 14-4 SEC) beat everyone in the gauntlet-like SEC this year — aside from Kentucky, who the Gators played on the road to open conference play in January.
Keep an eye on Walter Clayton Jr., the leader of Florida’s No. 1-rated offence (based on efficiency). In his past five games, Clayton is averaging 21.4 PPG on 46.8/44.4/81.3 shooting splits.
March Madness best bets made at 4:10 p.m. on 03/17/25.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.