Jordan Horrobin

March Madness is an opportunity for anonymous heroes to emerge, and I’m targeting four players to show up big in Thursday’s first round.

The pregame narrative: Bennett Stirtz has done it all for the Drake Bulldogs this year, and he’s got a nice price to continue leading the charge for them offensively. I also have prop milestone predictions on Silas Demary Jr. (Georgia), Nick Townsend (Yale) and Harlan Obioha (UNC Wilmington).

Check out the best March Madness prop bets for March 20.

March Madness prop bets

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Best bet: Stirtz 20+ points (+128)

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I like No. 11 Drake to pull off an upset over the No. 6 Missouri Tigers, and if that has any chance of happening, Stirtz will need to come up big.

• Stirtz leads NCAA Division I in minutes per game (39.3) and paced the Missouri Vally Conference in scoring (19.1 points/game).

• He takes nearly twice as many shots as anyone else on the Bulldogs (13.3 FGA; the next highest is 7.4 FGA).

• Stirtz has efficient shooting splits (49.3/38.6/79.5), which justifies his high shot volume.

Stirtz is a junior, but this is his first season at the D-I level. He spent the past two seasons as a star for D-II Northwest Missouri, before following coach Ben McCollum to Drake this year.

The Missouri native now faces the Missouri Tigers, who might try to turn this game into a track meet.

Mizzou plays at the 55th-fastest offensive pace in D-I, per KenPom.com, while Drake plays at the slowest pace in the country (364th). If the Tigers can liven up the pace, that should just result in more shots for Stirtz.

Key stat: In his past 13 games, Stirtz is averaging 21.3 PPG and has cashed this bet 10 times.

Best March Madness picks

Demary 3+ threes (+135): For a guy who’s only canning 1.8 threes per game, this might seem like a bit of a reach.

But Demary’s 3-point shot volume is way up right now, and I think that could continue for No. 9 Georgia’s matchup against the No. 8 Gonzaga Bulldogs.

Here’s what Demary has accomplished from the 3-point line in his past 10 games:

• 6+ attempts in 9 games
• 2+ makes in 10
• 38.2 3PT% on 7.6 attempts

Demary cashed this prop in five of those 10 matchups, but he was a threat to do it every time.

Gonzaga allows 24.4 attempted 3s per game, which ranks 79th in D-I.

Obioha 6+ rebounds (-117): UNC Wilmington was a successful rebounding-by-committee squad this year, ranking 24th in rebounds per game despite no players averaging 7.0 RPG or more.

Obioha is, quite literally, at the centre of the Seahawks’ success.

• The 7-foot centre averages 5.9 rebounds per game.

• He has 6+ rebounds in 5 of his past 6 matchups.

• On the season, Obioha has 5+ rebounds in 21 of 34 games.

The Niagara transfer is especially active on the offensive glass with a 14.7% rebounding rate (24th in D-I, per KenPom.com).

Although the 14th-seeded Seahawks are expected to go down against the No. 3 Texas Tech Red Raiders, I don’t expect Obioha to get pushed around.

He’ll be the tallest player on the court Thursday, and at 280 pounds, he is 55 pounds heavier than anyone on the Red Raiders’ side.

Townsend 25+ points/rebounds/assists (+110): The No. 4 Texas A&M Aggies are scrappy, but that scrappiness leads to plenty of fouls. With that in mind, I think Townsend should be a force for the No. 13 Yale Bulldogs.

Townsend is a 6-foot-7, 250-pound forward who shoots well from the free-throw line (76.3%). He’s also a stat-stuffer across the board.

• On the season, Townsend is averaging 15.4 points, 7.2 rebounds and 3.6 assists (26.2 PRA).

• He has 25+ PRA in 13 of 19 games since Dec. 20.

Texas A&M is an elite rebounding team, but none of its rotation players are taller than 6-foot-9. And the squad ranks 317th in offensive effective field goal rate.

Look for Townsend to grab some boards and be a focal point for Yale’s offence.

March Madness prop bets made at 9:20 a.m. ET on 03/20/2025.

Canadian universities don’t participate in March Madness. But some of Canada’s best collegiate hoopers do.

If you’re filling out a bracket, you probably already have a rooting interest in the NCAA tournament. But why not add to that by cheering on some local talent?

Here are the four Canadian March Madness players that bettors need to know about before the NCAA tournament begins.

Canadian March Madness players

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Ryan Nembhard

Team: Gonzaga Bulldogs
Hometown: Aurora, Ontario
PPG: 10.8 | RPG: 3.1 | APG: 9.8

Last year, in his first season with Gonzaga, Nembhard paced the West Coast Conference in assists per game (6.9).

He’s outdone himself this year, leading all of NCAA Division I in that category (9.8).

Nembhard is a familiar face for March Madness fans, as he played into the second weekend of the tournament in both previous seasons (first with Creighton, then with Gonzaga).

Despite nabbing another WCC tournament title this year — their 11th in the past 13 seasons — the Zags enter the tournament as an 8-seed. That’s their worst seeding since the 2015-16 season.

If Nembhard and Gonzaga survive an all-Bulldog battle in the first round against Georgia, a daunting test against the No. 1 Houston Cougars awaits.

Will Riley

Team: Illinois Fighting Illini
Hometown: Kitchener, Ontario
PPG: 12.5 | RPG: 4.1 | 2PT%: 50.2

The true freshman earned Big Ten Sixth Man of the Year honours in 2024-25, following in the footsteps of players like Aaron Wiggins, Duncan Robinson and, once upon a time, Draymond Green.

After stellar production off the bench, Riley earned a starting gig in late February and hasn’t given it up.

In his past five games, the 6-foot-8 forward is averaging 17.2 points, 5.4 rebounds and 3.4 assists while shooting a clean 50.0% from the floor.

No. 6 Illinois is on the opposite end of the Midwest Region from No. 8 Gonzaga, so an Elite Eight showdown between two of Canada’s best is possible (albeit unlikely).

Josh Omojafo

Team: Robert Morris Colonials
Hometown: Hamilton, Ontario
PPG: 11.4 | RPG: 3.8 | FT% 81.4

Unlike Nembhard and Riley, who were four and five-star high school recruits, respectively, Omojafo took an unheralded route to the March Madness spotlight.

The 6-foot-5 guard spent his first two collegiate seasons with D-II Gannon University in Erie, Pennsylvania.

Gannon went 3-23 in Omojafo’s first season before a remarkable turnaround in Year 2 — a 32-3 record and a D-II Elite Eight appearance, with Omojafo leading the way at 20.0 PPG.

He transferred to Robert Morris for the 2024-25 season and became an instant asset.

Omojafo had a game-high 24 points in RMU’s Horizon League conference title game, which secured the March Madness berth.

If the 15th-seeded Colonials are going to shock the No. 2 Alabama Crimson Tide, expect Omojafo to be at the centre of it.

Canadian March Madness players to watch: Michael Nwoko

Team: Mississippi State Bulldogs
Hometown: Toronto, Ontario
PPG: 6.3 | RPG: 4.6 | BPG: 0.8

Nwoko doesn’t often light up the box score, but he’s a starting big who knows how to throw down a powerhouse slam.

The Miami (FL) transfer had 10 points, five rebounds and a pair of blocks earlier this season against Kentucky, so he’s capable of showing out in a marquee matchup.

No. 8 Mississippi State faces the No. 9 Baylor Bears in the first round. If the Bulldogs get through that, the Cooper Flagg-led Duke Blue Devils are on deck.

On Thursday, the 2025 March Madness college basketball tournament will be underway in full force.

The pregame narrative: This +309 parlay has plays on three evening matchups from the 16-game slate. I’m taking the under on an alternative total when the Arkansas Razorbacks face the Kansas Jayhawks, and I also have recommendations on the No. 11 Drake Bulldogs and No. 12 UC San Diego Tritons.

Check out my March Madness parlay predictions for NCAA basketball action on March 20.

March Madness parlay predictions

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Parlay: Arkansas/Kansas u148.5 pts | Drake +9.5 | UC San Diego +5.5 (+309)

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Arkansas/Kansas under 148.5 points (-155): This game has by far the most coaching clout of any first-round tilt, and I expect it to be a defence-first chess match.

Bill Self and John Calipari’s squads are both stronger on the defensive side, per KenPom.com:

• Kansas: 11th in defensive efficiency, 48th in offensive efficiency

• Arkansas: 20th in defensive efficiency, 73rd in offensive efficiency

The Jayhawks and Razorbacks also both hit unders more often than overs. Combined, unders are 39-27 (59.1%) in their games this season.

When Kansas is favoured, unders are 18-9. And the Jayhawks have gone under this total in 19 of 33 games on the year.

College basketball parlay picks

Drake +9.5 (-177): The Bulldogs are one of my favourite first-round upset picks. So let’s give them a bunch of points, shall we?

The Bulldogs’ roster is a who’s who of non-NCAA Division I transfers, including three players who came over from D-II Northwest Missouri State with first-year coach Ben McCollum.

And they sure seem to be gelling, as Drake has posted an 18-1 record since Jan. 8 — and the lone blemish was a two-point loss more than a month ago.

The Missouri Tigers stumbled to a 2-5 record down the stretch. Coming out of the SEC, they’re a battle-tested bunch… but a blowout win is far from a sure thing.

Mizzou has only covered this number in 16 of 33 games.

UC San Diego +5.5 (-175): Like Drake, I’ve tabbed UC San Diego as an upset team to watch.

But the Tritons (+2.5) are hardly underdogs against the 5-seed Michigan Wolverines, so I’d prefer to give them a bit more cushion.

After winning the Big Ten tournament, Michigan got a raw deal from the selection committee. The Wolverines had to travel west from Indianapolis to Denver for a matchup on the first day of the Round of 64.

The team waiting for them is a matchup nightmare, too.

• UC San Diego is riding the longest win streak in NCAA Division I (15 games).

• The Tritons own the best turnover margin in the country (+7.3/game). They forced the 8th-most turnovers and allowed the 2nd-fewest.

• Michigan has a major turnover problem. The Wolverines committed the 23rd-most and had a -2.7 average turnover margin.

To top it off, USCD has the best ATS record in D-I (25-7-0).

March Madness parlay predictions made at 1:45 p.m. ET 03/18/2025

Do the North Carolina Tar Heels belong in March Madness? We’ll find out Tuesday night when they face the San Diego State Aztecs in First Four play-in action.

The pregame narrative: UNC was arguably the most lenient addition to the 68-team field after putting up a shaky regular season resume. I’m riding with San Diego State on an alt spread while backing RJ Davis and Nick Boyd in the prop market.

Check out my North Carolina vs. San Diego State SGP predictions for their First Four college basketball matchup on March 18.

North Carolina vs. San Diego State predictions

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Parlay: SDSU +7.5 | Davis 15+ points | Boyd 2+ threes (+310)

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San Diego State +7.5 (-186): I backed the Aztecs at +4.5 in one of my First Four best bets for Tuesday, so let’s kick off this SGP by banking a few extra points.

North Carolina is 8-2 in its past 10 games, and both losses in that span came against Duke. Sounds nice, right?

Sure, except that it illustrates the Tar Heels’ smoke-and-mirrors record this season. UNC is 22-13 overall, but just 1-12 in Quad 1 matchups.

San Diego State is a Quad 1-calibre foe with an elite defence, ranking first in block rate (18.5%) and sixth in effective field goal percentage (45.3%).

Also, the Aztecs are 3-6 in Quad 1 matchups — including wins over Houston and Creighton.

Both KenPom.com and BartTorvik.com project a two-point victory for UNC tonight.

NCAA SGP legs

Davis 15+ points (-162): Tuesday could be Davis’ last game in Carolina blue. I expect him to play with plenty of urgency.

Davis is the focal point of UNC’s offence, leading the team in every notable volume stat:

• PPG (17.8)
• FGA (13.3)
• 3PA (6.5)

He also plays a team-high 34.4 minutes per night. So again, it’s fair to expect him to leave it all out on the floor.

The fifth-year senior has seen plenty of highs and lows in his career as a Tar Heel. With an 18.2 PPG scoring average over the past three seasons, he’s proven to be a reliable offensive asset many times over.

Since the 2022-23 season, Davis has cashed this milestone in 74 of 105 games (70.5%).

Boyd 2+ threes (-136): Two years ago, Boyd torched San Diego State in a Final Four matchup by shooting 4-for-7 from deep as a member of the Florida Atlantic Owls.

Now he’s the Aztecs’ leading scorer, looking to ride a hot streak from 3-point range to lift SDSU back into the Round of 64.

• Boyd has 2+ threes in 5 of his past 6 games, with a 48.4 3PT% in that span.

• Boyd has 2+ threes in 17 of 30 games this season.

The Tar Heels play at the 34th-fastest adjusted tempo, per KenPom, so Boyd could get additional looks if they push the pace.

North Carolina vs. San Diego State predictions made at 11:00 a.m. on 03/18/25

Play-in action marches on with another First Four college basketball doubleheader on Wednesday.

The pregame narrative: The Xavier Musketeers battle the Texas Longhorns for a spot in the Round of 64. I’m expecting plenty of offence and I also have a play for the American Eagles vs. Mount St. Mary’s Mountaineers game.

Check out my NCAA First Four picks for the March 19 tournament games.

NCAA First Four picks

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Best Bet: Xavier/Texas over 149 points (-108)

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This looks like an evenly matched game between two teams that should produce offence.

• Xavier and Texas rank sixth and 66th, respectively, in offensive 3-point percentage. They both shoot 35.9% or better from deep.

• Both teams rank in the top third of NCAA Division I in average offensive possession length. Xavier plays particularly fast, ranking 46th in offensive possession length (16.4 seconds).

Neither team shoots an overwhelming number of 3s, but they both excel from beyond the arc. If one side gets hot, the other might be encouraged to start firing more from deep.

This game features solid star power, including Texas guard Tre Johnson. The projected lottery pick led the SEC in scoring (19.8 PPG) en route to earning SEC Freshman of the Year honours.

Xavier is led by Zach Freemantle (17.3 PPG) and Ryan Conwell (16.8 PPG). Conwell is on a blazing pace right now, shooting 53.8% from 3-point land over his past seven games.

If the Musketeers’ shooting goes cold, they should be able to find offence from the free-throw line.

Texas has allowed the 35th-most free throws in D-I this year, and Xavier owns the eighth-best FT% in the country (79.4).

Key stat: In their past 10 games, Xavier is 7-3 to the over and Texas is 9-1.

March Madness prediction

American over 65.5 points (-125): This bet will almost certainly come down to whether or not the Eagles make their 3s — because it’s a safe bet that Mount St. Mary’s will let them shoot plenty.

The Mountaineers allow the 17th-most attempted 3s per game (27.0), and deep shooting is the best part of what the Eagles do offensively.

American shoots 35.1% from long range, which is 103rd in D-I. The Eagles average a hearty 24.2 attempted 3s per game.

Because American plays at one of the most sluggish paces in the country, it isn’t a high-scoring team.

But the Eagles still average 68.6 PPG. They’ve cleared this line in four straight and in 23 of 34 games this season.

NCAA First Four picks made at 9:10 a.m. ET on 03/18/2025.