Jordan Horrobin

A pair of 3-point props and a rebounding milestone round out my March Madness prop bets for Sunday’s action.

The pregame narrative: Nate Bittle (Oregon) has peaked at the right time and looks like a good bet to rack up rebounds tonight. I’m also interested in Milan Momcilovic (Iowa State) and Mark Sears (Alabama) finding success beyond the arc.

Check out the best March Madness prop bets for March 23.

March Madness prop bets

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Best bet: Bittle 8+ rebounds (-124)

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My colleague Avery Perri backed Bittle at this number in the first round and it paid off. Despite a reduced workload in a blowout win, Bittle grabbed 10 rebounds in 22 minutes against Liberty.

Bittle, a finalist for the Kareem Abdul-Jabbar Award — presented to the top centre in NCAA Division I — has enjoyed a stellar senior year after two significant waves of adversity as a junior.

Last year, Bittle missed multiple months with a broken wrist. Two games following his return, he was sidelined the rest of the year due to long COVID symptoms that reportedly caused a 30-pound weight loss.

The 7-footer once again tips the scales at 240 pounds, according to the Oregon athletics website, and he’s putting that size to good use on the glass.

• 7.5 rebounds/game this season
• 8+ rebounds in 17 of 34 games
• 7+ rebounds in 22 of 34 games

The 5-seed Oregon Ducks tend to play quickly, with the 100th-fastest average possession length, per KenPom.com. They face the 4-seed Arizona Wildcats, who have the 45th-fastest average possession length.

Put ’em together and we should have ample possessions that lead to ample rebounds.

I like Bittle to cash this bet for a fifth consecutive game.

Key stat: Over his past 10 matchups, Bittle has averaged 8.8 rebounds.

Best March Madness picks

Momcilovic 3+ threes (-107): Opportunity volume is always an important aspect of prop betting, and Momcilovic should have plenty of chances to score from deep on Sunday night.

The 41.1% 3-point shooter averages 2.3 makes on 5.6 attempts, so efficiency hasn’t been an issue most of the year.

Now he faces the 6-seed Mississippi Rebels, who allow 24.4 attempted 3s per game — 77th-most out of 364 D-I schools.

• The sophomore forward has cashed this bet in 4 of his past 6 games.

• He has 2+ threes in 9 of 10 since Feb. 15.

Sears 2+ threes (-137): Sunday’s matchup between the 2-seed Alabama Crimson Tide and the 7-seed Saint Mary’s Gaels is an epic clash of styles.

Saint Mary’s plays at the fifth-slowest pace. On a per-game basis, the Gaels allow the second-fewest 3-point makes (5.4) and attempts (17.6).

Alabama, meanwhile, plays at the nation’s quickest pace and averages 29.5 threes per game (14th-most in D-I). Leading the way on that front is Sears, who averages 2.3 made threes on 6.9 attempts.

The matchup is a daunting one, but Sears will have a good chance as long as the Tide — who are 6-point favourites — stick to their game plan.

• He has 2+ threes in 21 of 34 games this season.

• In his past six March Madness games, Sears is shooting 21-for-49 (42.9%) from deep. He cashed this bet in five of those matchups.

March Madness prop bets made at 9:20 a.m. ET on 03/23/2025.

The latter half of the Sweet 16 field will be decided with Sunday’s March Madness slate.

The pregame narrative: I like what I saw from the No. 3 Kentucky Wildcats in their tourney opener, and they should match up well with the No. 6 Illinois Fighting Illini on Sunday. This +300 parlay also includes a moneyline pick on the No. 3 Iowa State Cyclones.

Check out my March Madness parlay predictions for NCAA basketball action on March 23.

March Madness parlay predictions

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Parlay: Kentucky +5 | Saint Mary’s/Alabama over 147.5 points | Iowa State ML (+300)

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Kentucky +5 (-190): Kentucky is the higher seed in its matchup but is a slight underdog against the No. 6 Illinois Fighting Illini. To me, that just creates a nice opportunity to bank a few extra points with the Wildcats.

• Kentucky is 11-10 in Quad 1 matchups this year, covering this number (or pushing) in 15 of 21 games.

• Illinois is 7-11-1 against a -5 spread in Quad 1 matchups.

The Fighting Illini are a curiously stubborn team when it comes to 3-point shots. They shoot a ton (fourth-most in NCAA Division I) but have a terrible 3-point percentage (31.4%, 313th in D-I).

Now they face a Kentucky squad that allows just a 30.7 3PT%, which is 27th-best in the country.

Kentucky also shoots 3s well in its own right (37.4 3PT%, 24th in D-I). Winning the battle beyond the arc should be a key to success for the Wildcats

College basketball parlay picks

Saint Mary’s/Alabama over 147.5 points (-130): Alabama’s lowest projected total this season was 153 points, per Covers.com. And its average game total was 172.5 points.

With that in mind, this total seems like it should be a breeze to clear.

It won’t be quite that simple, as Saint Mary’s ranks No. 7 in defensive efficiency, per KenPom.com, with the fifth-slowest average possession time on offence.

But I know Alabama wants to push the pace, and I still think the Tide can win out in a strength-on-strength clash of styles.

Alabama has the fourth-fastest average possession time on offence, and it leads the country in scoring (91.1 PPG).

This over has cashed in 31 of the Tides’ 34 games this season, including each of its past 17.

Iowa State moneyline (-225): Iowa State is traditionally known as a stout defensive squad, but the team took some significant strides on offence this year.

• The Cyclones rank 39th in eFG% and 64th in FT% this season. Last year, when the Cyclones were a 2-seed in the NCAA tournament, they were 100th in eFG% and 264th in FT%.

• Defence is still a priority for Iowa State, though. The Cyclones rank eighth in defensive efficiency and 13th in turnover rate.

This Iowa State squad lost by two against top-seeded Auburn earlier this season and finished 9-7 in Quad 1 matchups.

Ole Miss is 8-10 in Quad 1 games and simply isn’t elite on either side of the ball. The Rebels rank 156th in offensive eFG% and 145th in defensive eFG%. They’re also 3-6 ATS in their past nine.

Iowa State is 24-5 when favoured this year and should advance to Week 2 of the tournament.

March Madness parlay predictions made at 1:30 p.m. ET 03/22/2025

The No. 6 BYU Cougars face the No. 3 Wisconsin Badgers in second-round action on Saturday, with a trip to the Sweet 16 on the line.

The pregame narrative: This March Madness game is priced at a pick’em, but I’m bullish on the Badgers to win. This +420 SGP also includes prop bets on John Tonje and Egor Demin.

Check out my BYU vs. Wisconsin SGP predictions for their first-round matchup on March 21.

BYU vs. Wisconsin predictions

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Parlay: Wisconsin ML | Tonje 20+ points | Demin 4+ assists (+420)

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Wisconsin moneyline (-122): This is a pretty even matchup on paper, I must admit.

• BYU: 20-13-1 ATS, 7-7 record in Quad 1 games

• Wisconsin: 22-13-1 ATS, 8-8 in Quad 1 games

So why do I think the Badgers have the edge? They have more experience and balance, as well as a game-breaking star.

• The Badgers are 45th in average NCAA Division I experience (2.60 years), per KenPom.com, and 90th in minutes continuity (46.3%). The Cougars are 130th in D-I experience and 133rd in continuity.

• Wisconsin ranks inside the top 25 in offensive and defensive efficiency. BYU ranks inside the top 10 on the offensive side but is 69th on defence.

As for the game-breaking star, first-team All-Big Ten guard John Tonje (19.1 PPG, 39.0 3PT%) is that dude for the Badgers. But more on him in a moment.

There’s one more feather in Wisconsin’s cap: free throw shooting. The Badgers are the best in D-I from the line (82.7%), while BYU is 245th (70.4%).

Most tightly-contested March Madness games come down to free throws, and Wisconsin has a distinct advantage.

NCAA SGP legs

Tonje 20+ points (-148): Tonje got off to a relatively quiet — but efficient — effort in the NCAA tournament.

In a blowout win over the Montana Grizzlies, Tonje shot 2-for-5 from the floor and 9-for-9 from the free-throw line to finish with 15 points.

Against an undersized Montana squad, Wisconsin was able to run most of its offence from inside the arc.

But this is a team that loves to shoot 3s and should be highly encouraged to do so on Saturday.

• Wisconsin attempts 47.9% of its shots from 3-point range (20th-most in D-I).

• BYU allows 44.9% of opponent shots to come from 3-point range (30th-most in D-I).

• Tonje leads all Badgers in 3-point makes (2.3) and attempts (5.8).

This scoring milestone asks a bit more of Tonje than his season average, but the matchup is a great one for 3-point shooters. The sixth-year senior has 20-plus points in 10 of his past 18 games.

Demin 4+ assists (-165): Turnovers have been a problem for Demin in postseason play, but I don’t expect that to carry over to this matchup.

For all of its strengths, Wisconsin is dreadful at forcing turnovers. Its defence ranks 332nd in turnover rate.

After coughing up 13 turnovers in his past three games, this is a good time for BYU’s assists leader to get back on track.

Demin averages 5.3 APG and has four-plus assists in 22 of 31 games.

BYU vs. Wisconsin predictions made at 10:55 a.m. on 03/22/25

Gear up for Saturday’s second-round March Madness action with a trio of prop bets.

The pregame narrative: I’m targeting three players to cash in on scoring milestones. Steven Ashworth (Creighton) should stay hot from 3-point land, while Nolan Hickman (Gonzaga) and Bennett Stirtz (Drake) can fill the net from all over.

Check out the best March Madness prop bets for March 22.

March Madness prop bets

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Best bet: Ashworth 3+ threes (-139)

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Ashworth has the kind of 3-point shot volume that makes this playable.

• 8.4 attempts/game
• 3+ threes in 24 of 34 games
• 7+ attempts in 27 of 34 games

Experience oozes from Ashworth, a fifth-year senior with 166 NCAA Division I games (including six March Madness games) under his belt.

So while the top-seeded Auburn Tigers pose a daunting matchup (fifth-lowest opponent 3PT%, per KenPom.com), I don’t expect anything about Ashworth’s game to change.

This will be a test of strengths, as Auburn tends not to give up much at all beyond the arc. The Tigers have held opponents to 5.9 made 3s per game this season, which is the 14th-fewest in D-I.

But if Creighton sticks to its typical game plan, volume shouldn’t be an issue for Ashworth. He and the Bluejays average 9.5 threes (43rd-most) on 27.7 attempts (31st-most).

Ashworth is coming off a 22-point performance (4-for-8 from deep) in Creighton’s underdog first-round win. He should be encouraged to keep on chucking.

Key stat: Ashworth has cashed this bet in 12 of his past 16 games, shooting 39.7% from deep in that span. He had two-plus 3s in 15 of those 16 games.

Best March Madness picks

Hickman 10+ points (-114): Like Ashworth, I expect Hickman to get some looks from beyond the arc in a very difficult defensive matchup.

The No. 1 Houston Cougars allow the second-lowest effective field goal percentage in D-I (44.6%). But they do allow their opponents to heave plenty of 3s.

Houston’s opponents attempt 43.2% of their shots from beyond the arc, which is the 54th-most out of 364 D-I squads.

Enter Hickman, who went 5-for-6 from deep in the first round and is a 45.0 3PT% shooter on the season.

The senior guard has had a scoring dip this year, but he’s still averaging 11.2 PPG.

Hickman has cleared this point total in six of his past eight games, landing on exactly nine points in one of the outliers.

Stirtz 20+ points (+128): This plus-money milestone cashed for me on Thursday, and I’m happy to go back to the well.

Stirtz, who logs more minutes than anyone in the country (39.4/game), led the Missouri Valley Conference in scoring this year (19.2 PPG).

Despite Drake’s exceptionally slow pace, Stirtz tends to get enough looks — both in quality and quantity — to be dangerous against this line.

In his past 14 games, Stirtz has 20-plus points 11 times. He’s averaging 21.3 points on 52.8/49.3/78.9 shooting splits.

Stirtz’s No. 11 Drake Bulldogs are underdogs again after knocking off the No. 6 Missouri Tigers in the first round. They should lean on their best player with a Sweet 16 berth at stake.

March Madness prop bets made at 9:10 a.m. ET on 03/22/2025.

Penny Hardaway’s Memphis Tigers face the Colorado State Rams in first-round March Madness action on Friday afternoon.

The pregame narrative: No. 5 Memphis is a slight underdog, and I’m banking a few extra points with the Tigers in this +290 SGP. I also have prop bets on Nique Clifford (Colorado State) and Dain Dainja (Memphis).

Check out my Colorado State vs. Memphis SGP predictions for their first-round matchup on March 21.

Colorado State vs. Memphis predictions

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Parlay: Memphis +4.5 | Clifford 20+ points | Dainja 8+ rebounds (+290)

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Memphis +4.5 (-177): It’s exceedingly rare to see a 5-seed positioned as an underdog against a 12-seed. I’m sure Memphis feels the disrespect.

I’m not expecting Memphis to simply roll over, especially because the Tigers have been at their best in their biggest games this season.

• Memphis is 6-1 in Quad 1 games. Colorado State, by comparison, is just 3-5 in Quad 1 games.

• Memphis is 16-1 since Jan. 19 — and its own loss came on the road in overtime.

The Rams are a talented bunch, winning 10 straight games en route to a Mountain West tournament title. But Colorado State didn’t punch up against quality foes as well as Memphis did, and that matters in tourney time.

Memphis is 6-2 ATS as an underdog this year, per Team Rankings.

NCAA SGP legs

Clifford 20+ points (-182): Clifford paced the MWC in effective field goal percentage this season (58.0%) and is coming off a stellar conference tournament run.

Here’s what the fifth-year senior did in three conference tourney games:

• 25.0 PPG
• 24+ points in 3 of 3 games
• 50.0 FG%
• 43.8 3PT%

Clifford has now cashed this bet in 13 of his past 17 games, averaging 21.4 PPG. His 51.3/45.8/80.0 shooting splits in that span are absurd.

I like that Clifford is an elite free-throw shooter who gets to the line at a solid clip. He’s averaging 6.4 free throw attempts in his past 11 games.

Memphis allows the 97th-most free throws per game (20.4), so that could be a pathway to production for Clifford if his shooting cools off at all.

Dainja 8+ rebounds (-215): Dainja’s season rebounding average is a bit under this mark (7.2 RPG), but he’s only been a starter for about half the year.

After starting for Memphis early on, Dainja was moved to the bench. But he returned to the starting lineup in late January and never looked back.

• Starter (18 games): 29.7 minutes/game, 8.1 rebounds/game

• Reserve (16 games): 23.4 minutes/game, 6.3 rebounds/game

The 6-foot-9 transfer from Illinois has cashed this bet in 11 of 18 matchups as a starter.

Colorado State has one of the worst offensive rebounding rates in NCAA Division I (26.4%, 279th in D-I), so Dainja should do damage on the defensive glass.

Colorado State vs. Memphis predictions made at 3:20 p.m. on 03/20/25

Among the four late-night March Madness matchups on Friday, I’ve got picks from three of them in this +289 parlay.

The pregame narrative: The UConn Huskies aren’t as heralded as in recent years, but I don’t expect a one-and-done showing from the two-time defending champs. I’ve got UConn to win, plus an alt total involving the Michigan State Spartans and an alt spread for the Liberty Flames.

Check out my March Madness parlay predictions for NCAA basketball action on March 21.

March Madness parlay predictions

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Parlay: UConn ML | Bryant/Michigan State u155.5 points | Liberty +9.5 (+289)

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UConn moneyline (-240): After back-to-back national championships, is No. 8 UConn really going to bow out in the first round?

I don’t buy it.

Dan Hurley’s squad couldn’t crack St. John’s, but it otherwise handled its business in a strong Big East conference. During the non-conference slate, the Huskies picked up wins over three tournament teams (Gonzaga, Baylor and Texas).

UConn is 4-2 against Quad 1-A opponents, per BartTorvik.com. The Oklahoma Sooners are just 4-10 against Quad 1-A foes.

Oklahoma played in the toughest conference in the country, the SEC, but it didn’t exactly set the world on fire. A “quality loss” is a term SEC football fans love to throw around, but I won’t apply it to basketball.

College basketball parlay picks

Bryant/Michigan State under 155.5 points (-143): Unders are hot for the No. 15 Bryant Bulldogs, and I expect that trend to continue against No. 2 Michigan State.

• Unders are 8-3 in Bryant’s past 11 games.

• Unders are 22-11 in Michigan State games this season (tied for the ninth-highest rate in NCAA Division I).

• Both the Bulldogs and Spartans rank in the top 50 in effective field goal rate on defence … and they both rank outside the top 150 in eFG% on offence.

This under has cashed in nine of MSU’s past 10 games.

Bryant plays at the seventh-fastest pace in D-I, and a high-event game is definitely the biggest risk for this pick.

But quantity doesn’t guarantee quality, and I expect Michigan State’s defence — No. 5 in adjusted efficiency, per KenPom.com — to put the clamps on.

Liberty +9.5 (-165): There are only two D-I teams that rank in the top 10 in eFG% on offence and defence. One of them is Duke, and the other one is Liberty.

I’m less fixated on No. 12 Liberty’s defensive success, given that most of its games came against good-not-great Conference USA opponents.

But I do respect how effectively Liberty can fill the net.

• 2nd in eFG%
• 5th in 3PT%
• 14th in 2PT%

I don’t have a lot of bad things to say about the No. 5 Oregon Ducks, but I struggle to boast about them, either. Oregon is 105th in eFG% on offence and 91st in eFG% on defence.

Lacking any elite traits, I don’t expect Oregon to run away with this one.

KenPom projects a four-point win for Oregon, while Bart Torvik projects the Ducks to win by two.

March Madness parlay predictions made at 1:25 p.m. ET 03/20/2025

The No. 5 Michigan Wolverines are on upset watch Thursday night in a late matchup against the No. 12 UC San Diego Tritons.

The pregame narrative: Michigan is a narrow favourite despite just winning the Big Ten tournament on Sunday afternoon. I’m tacking a few extra points on UC San Diego’s alt spread, and combining that with props on Danny Wolf and Hayden Gray in a +280 SGP.

Check out my UC San Diego vs. Michigan SGP predictions for their first-round matchup on March 20.

UC San Diego vs. Michigan predictions

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Parlay: UC San Diego +5.5 | Wolf 25+ PRA | Gray 2+ threes (+280)

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UC San Diego +5.5 (-175): There’s a chance I’ve got too many eggs in the UC San Diego basket. I like the Tritons to win outright against Michigan, and I’m also backing them at this alt spread in a +309 first-round parlay.

But dammit, let’s triple down.

• UC San Diego is on a 15-game win streak — the longest active streak in NCAA Division I.

• The Tritons have the best average turnover margin in D-I (+7.3).

• Michigan’s main fallibility is ball control. The Wolverines have a -2.7 average turnover margin and commit the 23rd-most turnovers in the country.

The Tritons are undersized, but they shoot a lot of 3s, and they shoot them well (57th in D-I in 3PT%).

UCSD also has the best ATS mark in the country (25-7). Michigan is just 10-16 ATS as a favourite.

NCAA SGP legs

Wolf 25+ PRA (-220): Speaking of UCSD’s lack of size, that should make things a little easier for Wolf to operate on Thursday.

None of the Tritons’ rotational players are taller than 6-foot-8, so Wolf (7 feet) will have a notable size advantage.

Wolf is on a great statistical run in the past five games:

• 17.0 PPG
• 10.8 RPG
• 3.8 APG
• 25+ PRA in 4 of 5

He’s a double-double threat on a nightly basis and should be a menace on the glass for any of UCSD’s errant 3-pointers.

Offensively, he’s attempted 11.4 shots per game since the start of February and should have a stable floor.

Gray 2+ threes (-180): Gray is on a heater from beyond the 3-point line, and this is a reasonable way to buy in.

• Over his past 16 games, Gray is 37-of-80 (46.3%) from deep.

• He has 2+ threes in 11 of those 16 games.

Shot volume is a concern for Gray sometimes, but I’m hoping he won’t be shy about chucking 3 against Michigan. UCSD should be encouraged to live on the perimeter, given that the Wolverines have two 7-footers clogging the paint.

Michigan allows the 77th-most 3s per game in D-I.

UC San Diego vs. Michigan predictions made at 11:30 a.m. on 03/20/25