The No. 5 Michigan Wolverines are on upset watch Thursday night in a late matchup against the No. 12 UC San Diego Tritons.
The pregame narrative: Michigan is a narrow favourite despite just winning the Big Ten tournament on Sunday afternoon. I’m tacking a few extra points on UC San Diego’s alt spread, and combining that with props on Danny Wolf and Hayden Gray in a +280 SGP.
Check out my UC San Diego vs. Michigan SGP predictions for their first-round matchup on March 20.
UC San Diego vs. Michigan predictions
Parlay: UC San Diego +5.5 | Wolf 25+ PRA | Gray 2+ threes (+280)
UC San Diego +5.5 (-175): There’s a chance I’ve got too many eggs in the UC San Diego basket. I like the Tritons to win outright against Michigan, and I’m also backing them at this alt spread in a +309 first-round parlay.
But dammit, let’s triple down.
- UC San Diego is on a 15-game win streak — the longest active streak in NCAA Division I.
- The Tritons have the best average turnover margin in D-I (+7.3).
- Michigan’s main fallibility is ball control. The Wolverines have a -2.7 average turnover margin and commit the 23rd-most turnovers in the country.
The Tritons are undersized, but they shoot a lot of 3s, and they shoot them well (57th in D-I in 3PT%).
UCSD also has the best ATS mark in the country (25-7). Michigan is just 10-16 ATS as a favourite.
NCAA SGP legs
Wolf 25+ PRA (-220): Speaking of UCSD’s lack of size, that should make things a little easier for Wolf to operate on Thursday.
None of the Tritons’ rotational players are taller than 6-foot-8, so Wolf (7 feet) will have a notable size advantage.
Wolf is on a great statistical run in the past five games:
- 17.0 PPG
- 10.8 RPG
- 3.8 APG
- 25+ PRA in 4 of 5
He’s a double-double threat on a nightly basis and should be a menace on the glass for any of UCSD’s errant 3-pointers.
Offensively, he’s attempted 11.4 shots per game since the start of February and should have a stable floor.
Gray 2+ threes (-180): Gray is on a heater from beyond the 3-point line, and this is a reasonable way to buy in.
- Over his past 16 games, Gray is 37-of-80 (46.3%) from deep.
- He has 2+ threes in 11 of those 16 games.
Shot volume is a concern for Gray sometimes, but I’m hoping he won’t be shy about chucking 3 against Michigan. UCSD should be encouraged to live on the perimeter, given that the Wolverines have two 7-footers clogging the paint.
Michigan allows the 77th-most 3s per game in D-I.
UC San Diego vs. Michigan predictions made at 11:30 a.m. on 03/20/25
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.