The latter half of the Sweet 16 field will be decided with Sunday’s March Madness slate.
The pregame narrative: I like what I saw from the No. 3 Kentucky Wildcats in their tourney opener, and they should match up well with the No. 6 Illinois Fighting Illini on Sunday. This +300 parlay also includes a moneyline pick on the No. 3 Iowa State Cyclones.
Check out my March Madness parlay predictions for NCAA basketball action on March 23.
March Madness parlay predictions
Parlay: Kentucky +5 | Saint Mary’s/Alabama over 147.5 points | Iowa State ML (+300)
Kentucky +5 (-190): Kentucky is the higher seed in its matchup but is a slight underdog against the No. 6 Illinois Fighting Illini. To me, that just creates a nice opportunity to bank a few extra points with the Wildcats.
- Kentucky is 11-10 in Quad 1 matchups this year, covering this number (or pushing) in 15 of 21 games.
- Illinois is 7-11-1 against a -5 spread in Quad 1 matchups.
The Fighting Illini are a curiously stubborn team when it comes to 3-point shots. They shoot a ton (fourth-most in NCAA Division I) but have a terrible 3-point percentage (31.4%, 313th in D-I).
Now they face a Kentucky squad that allows just a 30.7 3PT%, which is 27th-best in the country.
Kentucky also shoots 3s well in its own right (37.4 3PT%, 24th in D-I). Winning the battle beyond the arc should be a key to success for the Wildcats
College basketball parlay picks
Saint Mary’s/Alabama over 147.5 points (-130): Alabama’s lowest projected total this season was 153 points, per Covers.com. And its average game total was 172.5 points.
With that in mind, this total seems like it should be a breeze to clear.
It won’t be quite that simple, as Saint Mary’s ranks No. 7 in defensive efficiency, per KenPom.com, with the fifth-slowest average possession time on offence.
But I know Alabama wants to push the pace, and I still think the Tide can win out in a strength-on-strength clash of styles.
Alabama has the fourth-fastest average possession time on offence, and it leads the country in scoring (91.1 PPG).
This over has cashed in 31 of the Tides’ 34 games this season, including each of its past 17.
Iowa State moneyline (-225): Iowa State is traditionally known as a stout defensive squad, but the team took some significant strides on offence this year.
- The Cyclones rank 39th in eFG% and 64th in FT% this season. Last year, when the Cyclones were a 2-seed in the NCAA tournament, they were 100th in eFG% and 264th in FT%.
- Defence is still a priority for Iowa State, though. The Cyclones rank eighth in defensive efficiency and 13th in turnover rate.
This Iowa State squad lost by two against top-seeded Auburn earlier this season and finished 9-7 in Quad 1 matchups.
Ole Miss is 8-10 in Quad 1 games and simply isn’t elite on either side of the ball. The Rebels rank 156th in offensive eFG% and 145th in defensive eFG%. They’re also 3-6 ATS in their past nine.
Iowa State is 24-5 when favoured this year and should advance to Week 2 of the tournament.
March Madness parlay predictions made at 1:30 p.m. ET 03/22/2025
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.