The No. 6 BYU Cougars face the No. 3 Wisconsin Badgers in second-round action on Saturday, with a trip to the Sweet 16 on the line.
The pregame narrative: This March Madness game is priced at a pick’em, but I’m bullish on the Badgers to win. This +420 SGP also includes prop bets on John Tonje and Egor Demin.
Check out my BYU vs. Wisconsin SGP predictions for their first-round matchup on March 21.
BYU vs. Wisconsin predictions
Parlay: Wisconsin ML | Tonje 20+ points | Demin 4+ assists (+420)
Wisconsin moneyline (-122): This is a pretty even matchup on paper, I must admit.
- BYU: 20-13-1 ATS, 7-7 record in Quad 1 games
- Wisconsin: 22-13-1 ATS, 8-8 in Quad 1 games
So why do I think the Badgers have the edge? They have more experience and balance, as well as a game-breaking star.
- The Badgers are 45th in average NCAA Division I experience (2.60 years), per KenPom.com, and 90th in minutes continuity (46.3%). The Cougars are 130th in D-I experience and 133rd in continuity.
- Wisconsin ranks inside the top 25 in offensive and defensive efficiency. BYU ranks inside the top 10 on the offensive side but is 69th on defence.
As for the game-breaking star, first-team All-Big Ten guard John Tonje (19.1 PPG, 39.0 3PT%) is that dude for the Badgers. But more on him in a moment.
There’s one more feather in Wisconsin’s cap: free throw shooting. The Badgers are the best in D-I from the line (82.7%), while BYU is 245th (70.4%).
Most tightly-contested March Madness games come down to free throws, and Wisconsin has a distinct advantage.
NCAA SGP legs
Tonje 20+ points (-148): Tonje got off to a relatively quiet — but efficient — effort in the NCAA tournament.
In a blowout win over the Montana Grizzlies, Tonje shot 2-for-5 from the floor and 9-for-9 from the free-throw line to finish with 15 points.
Against an undersized Montana squad, Wisconsin was able to run most of its offence from inside the arc.
But this is a team that loves to shoot 3s and should be highly encouraged to do so on Saturday.
- Wisconsin attempts 47.9% of its shots from 3-point range (20th-most in D-I).
- BYU allows 44.9% of opponent shots to come from 3-point range (30th-most in D-I).
- Tonje leads all Badgers in 3-point makes (2.3) and attempts (5.8).
This scoring milestone asks a bit more of Tonje than his season average, but the matchup is a great one for 3-point shooters. The sixth-year senior has 20-plus points in 10 of his past 18 games.
Demin 4+ assists (-165): Turnovers have been a problem for Demin in postseason play, but I don’t expect that to carry over to this matchup.
For all of its strengths, Wisconsin is dreadful at forcing turnovers. Its defence ranks 332nd in turnover rate.
After coughing up 13 turnovers in his past three games, this is a good time for BYU’s assists leader to get back on track.
Demin averages 5.3 APG and has four-plus assists in 22 of 31 games.
BYU vs. Wisconsin predictions made at 10:55 a.m. on 03/22/25
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.