March Madness returns to action on Thursday and Friday, and I’ve got a trio of best bets from the Sweet 16 games.
The pregame narrative: Facing arguably the toughest defensive matchup possible, I like the No. 4 Purdue Boilermakers to break through on offence and clear their modest team total. I’m also backing a pair of underdogs to cover their spreads (No. 3 Kentucky Wildcats, No. 4 Maryland Terrapins)
Check out my March Madness best bets for NCAA college basketball action on March 27-28.
March Madness best bets
Best bet: Purdue over 62.5 points (-114)
The Boilermakers play very slowly, and so do their opponents, the 1-seed Houston Cougars. Pacing is the primary concern for this wager.
But I see a pathway to Purdue having an efficient offensive night on Friday — inside and out.
- In the paint, Purdue has a size mismatch with Trey Kaufman-Renn (6-foot-9) and Caleb Furst (6-foot-10). The tallest players on Houston’s roster are 6-foot-8.
- On the outside, the Boilermakers rank ninth in NCAA Division I in 3-point percentage (38.5%). They have four players shooting north of 38.0 3PT% on multiple attempts per game.
Purdue has only gone under 62.5 points twice in 35 games this year. For a team that ranks seventh in offensive efficiency, per KenPom.com, why on earth is this line so low?
Well, it’s because Houston ranks No. 1 in scoring defence (58.4 PPG) and No. 1 in defensive efficiency.
But the Cougars have allowed three of five postseason opponents to clear this point total, and I expect the Boilermakers to keep that rolling.
It also helps that this is practically a home game for Purdue despite Houston being the higher seed.
The game will take place at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. That’s an hour south of Purdue’s campus by car … and two hours north of Houston’s campus by plane.
Ket stat: Purdue averaged 77.7 PPG this year (79th in D-I).
NCAA college basketball picks
Kentucky +4.5 (-115): It’s difficult to beat a team three times in one season, and it’s rare to even get the opportunity. But that’s what Kentucky will try to do on Friday night.
The Wildcats beat the Tennessee Volunteers, 78-73, in late January on the road. They followed that up with a 75-64 win at home on Feb. 11.
Kentucky is 8-4 ATS as an underdog this year, so even if the season sweep falls short, I think Mark Pope’s squad will hang around.
Tennessee shoots a lot of 3-pointers (43.3% of its total field goal attempts, which is 79th in D-I), and that’s what Kentucky is best at defending. The Wildcats hold opponents to a 30.6 3PT%, which is 24th in the country.
Maryland +7 (-112): If you have any friends who are Maryland fans, tell them to get their blood pressure checked. It’s been that kind of season for the Terps.
- All eight of their losses have come by six or fewer points.
- Each of their past four losses came on a game-winning shot in the final seconds.
- Maryland is coming off a buzzer-beater win of its own in the second round (vs. No. 12 Colorado State).
Florida is 0-2 ATS to open the tournament, and it suffered a genuine scare over the weekend against No. 8 UConn (trailing inside the final four minutes before gutting out a 77-75 win).
Maryland has the best interior player in this game (all-Big Ten honouree Derik Queen), as well as a perimeter defence (15th in 3PT%) capable of slowing down Walter Clayton Jr.
I expect Florida to win, but likely in heart-racing fashion.
March Madness best bets made at 1:05 p.m. ET 03/25/2025