The No. 4 Maryland Terrapins look to continue the Big Ten’s dominance at March Madness in Sunday’s second-round matchup against the No. 12 Colorado State Rams.
The pregame narrative: Maryland and the rest of the Big Ten entered Sunday a combined 9-2 so far in the NCAA tournament. I’m backing the Terps to win on a trimmed-down spread and expecting stars on both sides (Nique Clifford, Derik Queen) to show up.
Check out my Colorado State vs. Maryland SGP predictions for their second-round matchup on March 23.
Colorado State vs. Maryland predictions
Parlay: Maryland -4.5 | Clifford 30+ PRA | Queen 10+ rebounds (+380)
Maryland -4.5 (-186): KenPom.com and BartTorvik.com both project a seven-point win for the Terrapins. On paper, Maryland seems to be better practically across the board.
- Maryland: 8-7 record in Quad 1 games, 23rd in offensive efficiency (57th in eFG%), 6th in defensive efficiency (20th in eFG%).
- Colorado State: 4-5 record in Quad 1 games, 41st in offensive efficiency (24th in eFG%), 52nd in defensive efficiency (66th in eFG%).
The Rams shoot a lot of 3s, but that happens to be what the Terrapins are best at defending. Maryland ranks 20th in NCAA Division I in opponent 3-point percentage (30.4%).
This was a season of close calls for Maryland (26-8, 14-6 Big Ten), a team whose eight losses all came by six or fewer points.
Colorado State enters on an 11-game win streak and is 22-13 ATS on the year. But that doesn’t tell the full story.
All five of the Rams’ Quad 1 losses came by at least eight points, and they own a 5-7 ATS record as underdogs.
NCAA SGP legs
Clifford 30+ points/rebounds/assists (-195): Colorado State scraped by in the first round despite a poor effort from its first-team All-Mountain West star.
Although I don’t except the Rams to win tonight, a better showing from Clifford should be expected.
The fifth-year senior leads the Rams in points, rebounds and assists, averaging 33.0 PRA this year. Any hope of an upset starts with him.
Clifford is in particularly good form over his past 18 games, which dates back to Jan. 18:
- 35.9 PRA
- 30+ PRA in 14 of 18 games
- 49.8 FG%
- 42.7 3PT%
Queen 10+ rebounds (-137): Queen was recruited to be great, and he’s fulfilling that prophecy.
The five-star freshman has averaged 16.2 points and 9.2 rebounds this season for Maryland. He earned first-team all-conference honours in the Big Ten and has a shot at being a lottery pick in this year’s NBA draft.
NBA dreams can wait, though, because Queen is a force for a strong Maryland squad looking to make a deep tourney run.
- He had 15 rebounds in Maryland’s first-round win over Grand Canyon.
- Since Jan. 26, Queen has 10+ rebounds in 11 of 14 games.
At 6-foot-10, Queen is at least two inches taller than anyone in Colorado State’s regular rotation.
The Rams struggle on the offensive glass (272nd in D-I in offensive rebounding rate), so Queen should clean up on the defensive side.
Colorado State vs. Maryland predictions made at 11:05 a.m. on 03/23/25
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.