Jimmy Butler returns to South Beach to face the Miami Heat tonight, and I’ve got my eye on that matchup.
The pregame narrative: Can vengeance carry Butler to a quality effort against the Heat? I’m hoping so. I also like Trae Young and Spencer Dinwiddie to exceed their respective assist props.
Check out the best NBA prop bets for March 25.
NBA prop bets
Best Bet: Dinwiddie over 5.5 assists (-121)
I’m all in on Dinwiddie, who has taken up the mantle as the primary facilitator for the Mavericks amid their slew of injuries.
His statistical boost in the passing department aligns with Kyrie Irving’s season-ending injury, which was sustained on March 3.
- In 11 games since Irving’s injury, Dinwiddie has averaged 6.2 assists and is 7-4 against this prop.
- In previous matchups this season, Dinwiddie had averaged 3.7 assists and was just 13-46 against this prop.
On Tuesday, Dinwiddie faces the New York Knicks, who he thrived against when he last faced them in late November: 21 points and nine assists in 33 minutes.
Dallas is on a back-to-back tonight, so it’ll be worth checking the NBA injury report closer to game time to see about any injuries. But I don’t expect to see Dinwiddie pop up.
The last time Dinwiddie played on zero rest, he had six assists in 37 minutes (on March 10).
Key stat: Dinwiddie has gone over 5.5 assists in seven of his past nine starts. He’s averaging 5.8 assists as a starter this year.
Best NBA picks
Young over 9.5 assists (-118): Young faces arguably his toughest matchup possible tonight, the Houston Rockets, but I still have a difficult time fading him at this number.
- Young leads the NBA in both assists per game (11.4) and potential assists per game (20.7).
- He has 10+ assists in 43 of 66 games (65.2%).
The Rockets allow the fewest assists to their opponents, as well as the second-fewest to point guards in particular, per Betting Pros.
Young finished with nine assists against the Rockets on Jan. 28, but he had 14 when he faced them on the road last season.
While understanding the difficulty of the matchup, I still think Young has a better chance than not of cashing this bet tonight in Houston.
Butler over 20.5 points (-127): Heads up, this play is a bit narrative-heavy. But I feel compelled to back Butler in his return to Miami.
Butler is facing the Heat for the first time since a messy departure earlier this season. Following a trade request and three suspensions in a month’s time, Butler was finally dealt to the Golden State Warriors in early February.
The marriage with the Warriors is working out so far, especially from a volume standpoint. Butler has averaged 11.8 field goal attempts and 7.9 free throw attempts through 19 games.
I am paying a bit of narrative tax here, given that Butler’s points prop is set notably higher than his scoring average with the Warriors (17.6 PPG).
But pettiness can be a powerful drug, and I still want to buy in on Butler.
The veteran forward has scored 23-plus points in three of his past four games.
NBA prop picks made at 9:20 a.m. ET on 03/25/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.