Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.
Jose Berrios looks to bounce back from an ugly Opening Day start when he and the Toronto Blue Jays host the Washington Nationals on Tuesday night.
The pregame narrative: I have three plus-money prop predictions for tonight, including a fade of Berrios. On Washington’s side, I’m targeting Trevor Williams and Nate Lowe.
Check out my Nationals vs. Blue Jays prop picks for April 1.
In the first few weeks of the season, it’s easy to rush to overreactions — good and bad.
So maybe it seems like the expected thing for me to fade Berrios after his atrocious outing (six runs on nine hits in 5.0 innings) on March 27.
But take a look at Berrios’ three full seasons with the Blue Jays, and you’ll notice he’s an exceptionally durable pitcher who lacks elite strikeout stuff (MLB percentile rankings in parentheses):
Season
K%
Whiff %
2022
19.8% (28th)
21.3% (15th)
2023
23.5% (50th)
25.5% (46th)
2024
19.5% (22nd)
21.1% (13th)
Last season, according to Baseball Savant, Berrios finished in the bottom-25th percentile in xERA, xBA, whiff rate, K rate and hard-hit rate.
One poor start in 2025 isn’t a trend. But coming off a rough season, it certainly doesn’t inspire confidence.
The tricky thing about betting unders with Berrios is that he has a long leash. In 2024, he tossed at least 6.0 IP in 23 of 32 starts.
But the Nationals are one of the least strikeout-friendly squads in the majors, so I’m still willing to take the plunge. Since the start of last season, the Nats have the seventh-lowest K rate in MLB (20.7%).
Washington’s lineup only struck out four times in 6.0 IP against Bowden Francis on Monday. Even if Berrios pushes for the sixth inning, I think this under is attainable.
Key stat: Berrios only has six Ks in 45 plate appearances against the active Nationals lineup (13.3 K%). Washington hitters are 12-for-42 (.286) against him, with two homers and a double.
Prop predictions
Williams over 3.5 Ks (+132): Williams was excellent in a small sample last year, posting a 2.03 ERA and a roughly-league-average K rate (22.7%) in 13 starts.
He missed more than three months with a muscle strain but finished strong in two September outings: six hits, one run and 12 Ks in 10.0 innings.
Spring training stats don’t mean a ton, but I like that Williams fared well. He built up to 5.0 IP in back-to-back starts by the end of spring and finished with 19 Ks in 18.1 innings.
One more small-sample argument for you: Williams has posted seven strikeouts against the current Jays lineup in just 16 plate appearances (43.8 K%).
Lowe over 1.5 bases (+165): Through the first week-ish of the season, Lowe has been an all-or-nothing type of masher.
6-for-16 (.375)
.813 SLG
8 Ks
Five of his eight balls in play clocked in at 104-plus mph, but half of his at-bats ended in a strikeout.
I’m not terribly concerned about his strikeout issues against Berrios, and I like that they have some familiarity already.
Lowe, formerly of the Texas Rangers, is 4-for-6 off Berrios.
Nationals vs. Blue Jays prop picks made at 11:00 a.m. ET on 04/01/2025.
A long, cold winter is over. Toronto Blue Jays baseball is back with Thursday’s Opening Day matchup against the Baltimore Orioles.
The pregame narrative: For the second consecutive year, Jose Berrios and Zach Eflin will duke it out in the season opener. I’m backing the Jays on the five-inning moneyline and looking for Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to do damage.
Check out the best Blue Jays picks vs. the Orioles for Opening Day on March 27.
Blue Jays picks vs. Orioles
MLB Opening Day Boost: Jays to win & Santander to homer. Bet now (+578)
At an even-money price, Guerrero’s bases prop was always worth a look last season — especially in the second half.
Check out Vladdy’s post-all-star production in 2024:
.376 BA
1.127 OPS
2+ bases in 37 of 63 games
That late-season push didn’t lead to a $500-plus-million extension in the offseason, but it served as a reminder of how elite Guerrero is with a bat in his hands.
In 2024, Guerrero posted the highest xBA in the majors (.321), per Baseball Savant, and ranked in the 98th percentile in xSLG (.567) and average exit velocity (93.8 mph).
On Opening Day, he’s in a great matchup to mash against Eflin.
Guerrero is 7-for-19 (.368) with two HRs and one double against Eflin.
Eflin had a 98th-percentile walk rate in 2024 (3.5%), which is a plus for bases props because walks don’t count toward the total.
At home last season, Guerrero batted .335 with a .970 OPS in 79 games.
Expect Vladdy to put on a show for the Rogers Centre crowd.
Key stat: Guerrero went over 1.5 bases in all four games against Eflin last year (three times while Eflin was with the Rays, and once while he was with the Orioles).
Quick pick
Blue Jays tie no bet – first five innings (-108): Whether he was on the Rays or the O’s last year, Eflin got knocked around pretty good by Toronto’s lineup.
In four starts, he allowed 15 runs (5.79 ERA) and a .313/.327/.515 opponent slash line. Woof.
Toronto went 3-1-0 on the F5 moneyline in those games.
Berrios went 0-1-1 on the F5 moneyline against the O’s last year (remember, Eflin was still on the Rays when they faced each other), but with just two total F5 runs from the Toronto lineup.
Given that Berrios has a 2.96 ERA in eight starts against Baltimore since 2022, I think it’s fair to expect he’ll hold up his end of the bargain. Especially with the Orioles’ top hitter, Gunnar Henderson, sidelined with an injury.
Shohei Ohtani has countless accolades as a pro, but he’s never led MLB in home runs. Could that change this year?
The latest: Ohtani is tied for the favourite (+400) to be MLB’s HR leader with Aaron Judge. I’m making a case for Ohtani to win this futures market, with Brent Rooker profiling as a compelling alternative.
Check out the latest MLB home run leader predictions ahead of the 2025 season.
MLB home run leader predictions
Check out the latest MLB home run leader odds.Click linked odds to add selection to your betslip.
The two players with odds inside of 12-to-1 are Ohtani and Judge, who led their respective leagues in homers last season.
So I’m not exactly sticking my neck out with this pick.
But at 6-to-1, the case for Ohtani is still awfully compelling — and hopefully lucrative.
Ohtani has been a consistently spectacular masher for four consecutive seasons:
45 HRs per year
.602 SLG
.984 OPS
99th or 100th percentile xSLG in all four seasons
The 30-year-old’s finest work came last season, when he became the charter member of the 50-50 club. And his NL-best .646 SLG was actually a slight underperformance on his xSLG (.660), per Baseball Savant.
When comparing Ohtani to Judge, there’s one key reason why I prefer the slightly longer odds accompanying the Los Angeles Dodgers’ two-way superstar: lineup protection.
Ohtani is slated to bat ahead of Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman and Teoscar Hernandez, all of whom were all-stars with .840-or-better OPS rates last season.
It’s less likely that opponents will want to pitch around Ohtani compared to Judge, who no longer bats alongside Juan Soto.
Both stars are largely durable, but Ohtani has played 150-plus games in three of the past four seasons and is two years younger.
When you’re talking about the two best HR hitters in the world, details like that could be what makes the difference.
Key stat: Ohtani has the most HRs in the majors over the past two seasons (98). Judge (94) is the only other player with 90-plus homers in that span.
MLB HR leader long shot pick
Brent Rooker (+2,000)
If you want a long shot, Rooker is your guy. He’s a certified slugger who should be in a much friendlier offensive environment this season compared to the past two years.
Rooker put up back-to-back 30-homer seasons for the Oakland Athletics despite playing in a pitcher’s paradise.
According to Baseball Savant, the Oakland Coliseum was the fifth-worst ballpark for righties to hit home runs during the 2024 campaign. Damp, mild weather conditions played a role in that, as did the Coliseum’s expansive foul territory.
So what’s in store for Rooker at Sacramento’s Sutter Health Park? We won’t really know until we see it.
But Sacramento is known to be much hotter in the summer, and its foul territory is on par with standard MLB parks. The outfield dimensions will be about the same, though right field is five feet shorter at Sutter than at the Coliseum.
Park factors are one thing, but they aren’t everything. Rooker can tattoo a baseball in any stadium.
Last season, the 30-year-old blasted a career-high 39 dingers while finishing in the 97th percentile in barrel rate (16.6%) and xSLG (.557).
MLB HR leader notes
I’m not sold on Kyle Schwarber (+1,500) at his price point, but he’s a three-true-outcome guy who plays in a very homer-friendly park. So he’s at least worth having on your radar. Philadelphia’s Citizens Bank Park was the second-friendliest HR environment for lefties last year, and three other Phillies divisional opponents rank in the top half of MLB. Schwarber has elite bat speed and posted a 96th-percentile barrel rate (15.6%) last year.
Which Adolis Garcia (+2,500) will show up this year? The all-star and ALCS MVP from 2023, or the whiff-heavy disappointment from a season ago? Garcia flirted with a 40-homer season in 2023 and would at least be in the HR leader conversation if he did it again. It helps that he plays at Globe Life Field, which was the fourth-friendliest home run environment for righties last year.
While the Tokyo Series kicked things off, the big day is March 27. And it’s coming fast, meaning it’s time to write about what we think will happen this season.
Check out our 2025 MLB predictions and find out our staff’s favourite futures bets for the upcoming season.
MLB 2025 predictions
MLB 2025 predictions via NorthStar Bets writers Chris Toman, Jordan Horrobin and Avery Perri.
You’ll find picks on who they like to win the major individual awards and which teams they’re betting on to capture the Fall Classic.
Make sure to check out the key links below for all your MLB needs.
Toman’s pick: Philadelphia Phillies (+1,200) Analysis: The Dodgers are clearly the best team in baseball but a lot still has to go right for them to win the World Series, so I’m not touching them at by far the shortest odds in MLB.
I’m rolling with the Phillies, who I liked ahead of last season’s playoffs. They’re returning an offence that was top 10 in wRC+ and added to a rotation that was sixth in FIP and third in fWAR.
Jesus Luzardo makes a strong rotation — led by ace Zack Wheeler, the NL Cy Young runner-up — even nastier. And getting more than 121 games out of Trea Turner would certainly help.
Let’s not forget about the potential 70 homers and 200 walks they could get out of Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber. This is a dangerous veteran team.
Horrobin’s pick: Texas Rangers (+2,200) Analysis: The World Series hangover was real in Arlington. Texas followed up its 2023 title run with 78 wins and an early offseason.
But you don’t have to squint to see the star power on this team, and with some injury luck it wouldn’t be crazy to see everything fall into place (especially in a thinner-than-usual American League).
In the sections below, you’ll read about MVP and Cy Young candidates from this club.
There’s also the always-steady Marcus Semien, the playoff-dominant Nathan Eovaldi and more than a couple of youngsters to dream on (Wyatt Langford, Evan Carter, Jack Leiter, Kumar Rocker).
Perri’s pick: Dodgers (+225) Analysis: This is a boring pick, but it’s the right one.
L.A. has warped baseball’s competitive landscape with another boatload of elite free-agent signings, headlined by two-time Cy Young winner Blake Snell and Japanese phenom Roki Sasaki.
They’ll slot in alongside Tyler Glasnow, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and, eventually, Shohei Ohtani in the starting rotation.
Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman bat alongside Ohtani in a murderer’s row no pitcher wants to see. Injuries are the only thing that can derail L.A.’s bid for another title.
Toman’s pick: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+1,200) Analysis: The Toronto Blue Jays’ win total projection has been in the 78-80 range, a number I expect them to comfortably clear. I think the Jays are being slept on after last season’s disaster.
This looks like a bubble playoff team to me, and Guerrero possesses enormous upside as the club’s offensive catalyst.
Guerrero, 26, already has one MVP runner-up season and did this in the second half last year (MLB ranks in parentheses):
.376 BA (1st)
1.127 OPS (2nd)
10.1 K% (3rd)
It led to a 165 wRC+ season and a career-best .323 average. Guerrero has been a model of good health, too, playing at least 156 games in four consecutive seasons. At +1,500, this screams value.
Horrobin’s pick: Corey Seager (+1,100) Analysis: I like Witt, but I’ll leave Avery to make the case for the Kansas City Royals superstar. Another non-Judge option worth looking at is Seager.
Injuries are the main concern for Seager, who underwent sports hernia surgery last fall (his second one in less than a year). But he played restriction-free this spring, so hopefully the worst is behind him.
The 2023 MVP runner-up has finished in the 96th percentile or better in xBA and xSLG in three straight seasons, per Baseball Savant.
Perri’s pick: Bobby Witt Jr. (+295) Analysis: Witt and Judge were the only players to post 10+ fWAR seasons in 2024, and the 24-year-old hasn’t even reached his prime.
A true five-tool player, Witt can hit for power and average and is a menace on the basepaths.
A 40-40 season is very much in the cards. If you pair that with an AL batting title — which he won last year — it’ll be hard to give this award to someone else other than the Royals shortstop.
Toman’s pick: Elly De La Cruz (+1,400) Analysis: Here’s what I love about De La Cruz:
He’s 23 years old and coming off a 6.4 fWAR season (9th in MLB).
He has big pop with elite speed (67 steals, 1st in MLB) and defence at a premium position.
The projection systems see a step back in his defensive value and no real growth in his offensive game, which I would quibble with.
De La Cruz plays at one of the most hitter-friendly parks in the game, increased his walk rate considerably last season, and has a skill set that few in the game possess.
The Cincinnati Reds shortstop is only 258 games into his MLB career and is coming off a scorching hot spring, for whatever that’s worth.
FanGraphs projects a last-place finish for Cincinnati, which is one thing that could hold him back. But I’m expecting big things from De La Cruz in 2025.
Horrobin’s pick: Ohtani (+135) Analysis: It breaks my brain a little bit to tout an MVP winner with odds like this. But Ohtani is just that dude.
Last year, when Ohtani was shelved as a pitcher while recovering from Tommy John surgery, I was pretty sure someone else would earn NL MVP honours. Nope.
Authoring the first 50-50 season in league history, Ohtani won his third consensus MVP in four seasons.
Ohtani isn’t returning to an MLB mound just yet, but it seems that could happen as early as May. Combining his 50-homer bat with a career 3.01 ERA and 11.4 K/9 as a pitcher is simply unfair.
Perri’s pick: Austin Riley (+4,500) Analysis: Ohtani will probably win this award but I just can’t get down with a +125 price tag. So instead, I’ll take a flier on the Atlanta Braves’ Austin Riley.
The power-hitting third baseman is coming off a down year but had posted three stellar seasons before that, mashing 108 total home runs and never batting south of .270.
He’s going to hit behind Jurickson Profar and Ronald Acuna Jr., which is enviable for run production.
Toman’s pick: Logan Gilbert (+1,100) Analysis: As a frontrunner ahead of some arms with clear red flags, I don’t mind Skubal at +300. But I’ll recommend someone with more value.
Enter Gilbert, who throws in an ultra-kind pitching environment in Seattle that helps him suppress runs (3.38 ERA/3.52 FIP since 2022).
The Mariners ace is coming off his first 200-inning season, is an above-average strikeout arm, and is elite at limiting free passes.
Gilbert has been consistently good, and another step forward should help him move up the board after a sixth-place Cy Young finish in 2024.
Horrobin’s pick: Gilbert (+1,100) Analysis: For my money, the Mariners have the nastiest rotation in baseball. And Gilbert is the best of the bunch.
Last year’s MLB leader in innings (208.2) and WHIP (0.887) is a throwback workhorse with pinpoint command.
He hasn’t missed a start since debuting in 2021, and he’s ranked in the 95th percentile in walk rate in back-to-back years.
Gilbert isn’t expected to post gaudy strikeout numbers, but he has a deep and balanced arsenal. In 2024, four of his five pitch types had a whiff rate of 27.2% or better (league average was 25.3%).
Perri’s pick: Jacob deGrom (+1,400) Analysis: This is a risky play, and there’s no other way to put it.
deGrom hasn’t pitched a full season since 2019 (when he won this award for a second time) and has made 20 total starts over his last three campaigns.
But his ceiling is arguably higher than anyone in baseball, and we’ve seen veterans return to elite form after Tommy John surgery before. Just look at what Chris Sale did with the Braves last year.
deGrom has the fourth-highest K/9 rate in MLB history and the second-lowest ERA among all starters in the live ball era (min. 25 starts). I’ll take the plunge and bet on a triumphant return to form.
Toman’s pick: Yoshinobu Yamamoto (+1,800) Analysis: The NL has some intriguing value plays, and Yamamoto at +2,000 is one of them.
He has elite stuff, showed flashes of brilliance in his rookie season, and delivered in the playoffs for the World Series-winning Dodgers.
Yamamoto had a strong K rate in his first taste of the majors and did a good job at limiting walks and home runs, something he consistently did during his time in Japan.
You can do much worse than the hard-throwing righty with plus offerings who pitches on the best team in the majors.
Horrobin’s pick: Hunter Greene (+2,800) Analysis: There was a five-week injured list stint mixed in, but Greene’s numbers from July onward last year were marvellous:
9 starts
1.02 ERA
.198 opponent SLG
30.0 K%
Greene’s third MLB season — worth 6.2 bWAR despite some time off — was easily his best yet. He was an all-star and a down-ballot Cy Young candidate who posted a .188 xBA (96th percentile).
The Reds righty is a two-pitch pitcher, which is perfectly fine when you sit upper 90s with your fastball and generate a 39.0% whiff rate with your slider (17th among all pitches in MLB last year).
Perri’s pick: Spencer Schwellenbach (+2,500) Analysis: Schwellenbach’s solid rookie season was overshadowed by Skenes’ historic one but I think he can bridge the gap and then some this year:
Schwellenbach: 3.35 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 9.24 K/9 rate
Skenes: 1.96 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 11.50 K/9 rate
Schwellenbach righted the ship after an ugly first month in the majors, posting a 2.54 ERA in his last 15 starts. Moreover, the Braves fireballer had a 96th-percentile chase rate, but only a 70th-percentile K rate in 2024.
A few positive tweaks could make him an elite swing-and-miss arm.
A long, cold winter is over. Toronto Blue Jays baseball is back with Thursday’s Opening Day matchup against the Baltimore Orioles.
The pregame narrative: For the second consecutive year, Jose Berrios and Zach Eflin will duke it out in the season opener. I’m backing the Jays on the five-inning moneyline and looking for Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to do damage.
Check out the best Blue Jays picks vs. the Orioles for Opening Day on March 27.
At a plus-money price, Guerrero’s bases prop was always worth a look last season — especially in the second half.
Check out Vladdy’s post-all-star production in 2024:
.376 BA
1.127 OPS
2+ bases in 37 of 63 games
That late-season push didn’t lead to a $500-plus-million extension in the offseason, but it served as a reminder of how elite Guerrero is with a bat in his hands.
In 2024, Guerrero posted the highest xBA in the majors (.321), per Baseball Savant, and ranked in the 98th percentile in xSLG (.567) and average exit velocity (93.8 mph).
On Opening Day, he’s in a great matchup to mash against Eflin.
Guerrero is 7-for-19 (.368) with two HRs and one double against Eflin.
Eflin had a 98th-percentile walk rate in 2024 (3.5%), which is a plus for bases props because walks don’t count toward the total.
At home last season, Guerrero batted .335 with a .970 OPS in 79 games.
Expect Vladdy to put on a show for the Rogers Centre crowd.
Key stat: Guerrero went over 1.5 bases in all four games against Eflin last year (three times while Eflin was with the Rays, and once while he was with the Orioles).
Quick pick
Blue Jays tie no bet – first five innings (-110): Whether he was on the Rays or the O’s last year, Eflin got knocked around pretty good by Toronto’s lineup.
In four starts, he allowed 15 runs (5.79 ERA) and a .313/.327/.515 opponent slash line. Woof.
Toronto went 3-1-0 on the F5 moneyline in those games.
Berrios went 0-1-1 on the F5 moneyline against the O’s last year (remember, Eflin was still on the Rays when they faced each other), but with just two total F5 runs from the Toronto lineup.
Given that Berrios has a 2.96 ERA in eight starts against Baltimore since 2022, I think it’s fair to expect he’ll hold up his end of the bargain. Especially with the Orioles’ top hitter, Gunnar Henderson, sidelined with an injury.
The No. 1 Florida Gators and No. 4 Maryland Terrapins will square off Thursday night in Sweet 16 action at Chase Center.
The pregame narrative: Both teams are a long way from home as they try to keep their title hopes alive. I’m backing Derik Queen and Maryland to at least keep things close, but Florida’s Walter Clayton Jr. should still make his mark.
Check out my Maryland vs. Florida SGP predictions for their Sweet 16 matchup on March 27.
Maryland +9.5 (-190): Each of Maryland’s past four losses came on a game-winning shot in the dying seconds. The Terps finally returned the favour on Sunday, downing 12-seed Colorado State with a shot at the buzzer.
Maryland has been blowout-proof all season long. And that’s saying something in the deeply talented Big Ten conference.
All eight of Maryland’s losses came by six or fewer points.
The Terps are 4-2 ATS as underdogs this season, per Team Rankings.
Florida is 0-2 ATS so far in March Madness, and it almost lost outright as a 9-point favourite over the weekend against UConn.
The Gators are an elite squad, but they’re a pedestrian 13-10 against a -9.5 spread since the start of conference play.
As long as Maryland’s 15th-ranked perimeter defence (30.2 3PT% allowed) holds up against Clayton, this game should be close.
NCAA SGP legs
Queen over 15.5 points (-195): Queen should be brimming with confidence right now after draining the buzzer-beater that sent Maryland to the Sweet 16.
The Baltimore native is well on his way to the NBA lottery after earning first-team all-Big Ten honours as a freshman.
Queen is averaging 16.2 PPG and playing his best basketball over his past 12 games:
18.6 PPG
16+ points in 8 of 12
10+ points in 12 of 12
78.4 FT% on 7.3 attempts
Florida ranks fifth in NCAA Division I opponent 3PT% (29.5), and Maryland doesn’t tend to heave a bunch of 3s anyway.
Queen has the talent to be a bully in the paint, and his free-throw shooting is an asset he can fall back on.
Clayton over 3.5 assists (-121): Clayton has taken matters into his own hands a lot so far in March Madness.
As a result, he has only three total assists compared to 25 shot attempts (and 46 points) through two games.
But against Maryland, a far better defensive squad than Norfolk State or UConn, I expect Clayton will need to lean on his teammates a bit more.
Clayton leads Florida in assists per game (4.2).
He has 4+ assists in 19 of 35 games.
Three of his teammates average 11+ PPG, so there will be other viable scoring options on the floor.
Maryland ranks 100th in opponent assist rate, per KenPom.com, so this isn’t exactly a plus matchup. But that shouldn’t matter.
There are nine SEC teams in the top 100 in opponent assist rate, so Clayton has seen plenty of tough matchups. And yet he still averaged 4.7 APG in conference play (SEC tournament included).
Maryland vs. Florida predictions made at 1:05 p.m. on 03/26/25
There are four Sweet 16 games on Thursday’s March Madness slate, and I have prop bets from three of them.
The pregame narrative: Grant Nelson (Alabama) was healthy and productive in the second round, and I expect him to have a solid performance on the glass. I’m also backing Caleb Love (Arizona) and fading D.J. Wagner (Arkansas).
Check out the best March Madness prop bets for March 27.
There’s a lot of juice on this prop, and taking Nelson to record 8+ rebounds (+110) isn’t out of the question.
But if you’d rather go with a safer route, this is the lane to take.
Nelson averages 7.5 rebounds per game.
He has 7+ rebounds in 24 of 35 games this season.
Nelson grabbed eight rebounds in Sunday’s matchup against Saint Mary’s in his return to the starting lineup.
After injuring his knee 10 minutes into an SEC tournament game on March 15, Nelson played just seven minutes off the bench for the Alabama Crimson Tide in their March Madness opener.
Seeing him return to a standard workload (28 minutes) was nice. The ensuing three days off should be a boon for his rebounding opportunities on Thursday.
BYU is a solid rebounding team, ranking 32nd in NCAA Division I defensive rebounding rate (76.0%) and 71st in offensive rebounding rate (31.9%).
But the 6-foot-11 Nelson will be the tallest player on the floor Thursday, and he’s excelled against tougher rebounding matchups in the past. Saint Mary’s, for example, is in the top 10 in rebounding rate on both sides of the ball.
Key stat: Since last year, Nelson has gone over 6.5 rebounds in four of his past five March Madness games.
Best March Madness picks
Wagner under 3.5 assists (-125): Wagner has gone over 3.5 assists in five straight games … so what’s up with the fade?
First and foremost, Boogie Fland’s usage could be on the rise.
After missing the final two months of the season due to injury, Fland played 20-plus minutes off the bench in the Arkansas Razorbacks’ first two NCAA tourney games.
I assume he’ll be more ramped up now. Pre-injury, he averaged 34.1 minutes and a team-high 5.7 assists.
Notably, Wagner went under 3.5 assists in 13 of 18 regular season games with a healthy Fland.
Also, this matchup isn’t a good one for facilitators anyway.
The Texas Tech Red Raiders allow the 24th-fewest assists per game.
TTU ranks 52nd in defensive assist rate (46.6%), per KenPom.com.
Love over 17.5 points (-112): Does Love have another signature March moment in him?
The fifth-year guard took over at the end of his Arizona Wildcats’ victory on Sunday, canning five 3s and racking up 29 points.
Now he faces a Duke squad that is the tallest in D-I by average height and allows the third-lowest 2-point percentage (43.1%).
Love should be encouraged to fire from long range.
Love is averaging 19.3 PPG in his past 10 games.
It’s in the relatively distant past now, but Love is remembered by many for his 28-point performance against Duke in the 2022 Final Four (as a member of North Carolina).
March Madness prop bets made at 11:10 a.m. ET on 03/26/2025.
There are four Sweet 16 games on Thursday’s March Madness slate, and I have prop bets from three of them.
The pregame narrative: Grant Nelson (Alabama) was healthy and productive in the second round, and I expect him to have a solid performance on the glass. I’m also backing Caleb Love (Arizona) and fading D.J. Wagner (Arkansas).
Check out the best March Madness prop bets for March 27.
There’s a lot of juice on this prop, and taking Nelson to record 8+ rebounds (+110) isn’t out of the question.
But if you’d rather go with a safer route, this is the lane to take.
Nelson averages 7.5 rebounds per game.
He has 7+ rebounds in 24 of 35 games this season.
Nelson grabbed eight rebounds in Sunday’s matchup against Saint Mary’s in his return to the starting lineup.
After injuring his knee 10 minutes into an SEC tournament game on March 15, Nelson played just seven minutes off the bench for the Alabama Crimson Tide in their March Madness opener.
Seeing him return to a standard workload (28 minutes) was nice. The ensuing three days off should be a boon for his rebounding opportunities on Thursday.
BYU is a solid rebounding team, ranking 32nd in NCAA Division I defensive rebounding rate (76.0%) and 71st in offensive rebounding rate (31.9%).
But the 6-foot-11 Nelson will be the tallest player on the floor Thursday, and he’s excelled against tougher rebounding matchups in the past. Saint Mary’s, for example, is in the top 10 in rebounding rate on both sides of the ball.
Key stat: Since last year, Nelson has gone over 6.5 rebounds in four of his past five March Madness games.
Best March Madness picks
Wagner under 3.5 assists (-124): Wagner has gone over 3.5 assists in five straight games … so what’s up with the fade?
First and foremost, Boogie Fland’s usage could be on the rise.
After missing the final two months of the season due to injury, Fland played 20-plus minutes off the bench in the Arkansas Razorbacks’ first two NCAA tourney games.
I assume he’ll be more ramped up now. Pre-injury, he averaged 34.1 minutes and a team-high 5.7 assists.
Notably, Wagner went under 3.5 assists in 13 of 18 regular season games with a healthy Fland.
Also, this matchup isn’t a good one for facilitators anyway.
The Texas Tech Red Raiders allow the 24th-fewest assists per game.
TTU ranks 52nd in defensive assist rate (46.6%), per KenPom.com.
Love over 17.5 points (-103): Does Love have another signature March moment in him?
The fifth-year guard took over at the end of his Arizona Wildcats’ victory on Sunday, canning five 3s and racking up 29 points.
Now he faces a Duke squad that is the tallest in D-I by average height and allows the third-lowest 2-point percentage (43.1%).
Love should be encouraged to fire from long range.
Love is averaging 19.3 PPG in his past 10 games.
It’s in the relatively distant past now, but Love is remembered by many for his 28-point performance against Duke in the 2022 Final Four (as a member of North Carolina).
March Madness prop bets made at 9:40 a.m. ET on 03/26/2025.
In the absence of a couple of stars, the Memphis Grizzlies face the Utah Jazz on Tuesday night.
The pregame narrative: Both teams are missing a notable scorer, which is part of the reason I’m taking a teased-up under tonight. But I still expect Santi Aldama and Isaiah Collier to chip in offensively for their respective squads.
Check out my Grizzlies vs. Jazz SGP predictions for March 25.
Under 245.5 points (-205): The Grizzlies won’t have Ja Morant tonight, and his absence takes a huge bite out of this team’s talented offence.
Memphis has gone under this total in three of four games since Morant was sidelined with a hamstring injury.
Unders are 7-3 in the Jazz and Grizzlies’ past 10 games, respectively.
Unders are 2-0 in previous matchups between these teams. The average total in those games was 232.5 points.
Utah’s leading scorer, Lauri Markkanen (19.0 PPG), is also out.
Markkanen has only played four of Utah’s 16 games since Feb. 24. In that span, the team ranks 28th in offensive rating (107.1).
NBA SGP legs
Aldama 2+ threes(-175): Aldama has missed most of this month with a calf injury, but he’s turned in a pair of nice performances beyond the arc recently.
March 19: 2-for-4
March 21: 3-for-8
Morant’s absence should mean more 3-point opportunities for shooters like Aldama, Desmond Bane and Jaren Jackson Jr. And this is a great matchup to raise the floor on shot volume.
Utah allows the most 3-point makes (14.7/game) and attempts (41.6/game) in the NBA.
In 19 games without Morant this year, Aldama has cashed this bet 12 times while averaging 2.1 threes.
Collier 6+ assists (-245): A lot has gone wrong for the Jazz this year, but Collier has been a bright spot — at least as a passer.
Let’s not lose sleep over the guard’s 41.5% field goal percentage right now. The positive headliner for the ex-USC guard is that he leads all NBA rookies in assists per game (6.2).
Collier wasn’t a starter from Day 1, but he’s been in that role for close to three months now.
In 39 games as a starter, Collier has averaged 7.9 assists.
He has 6+ assists in 35 of his past 40 games.
Memphis allows the 10th-most assists per game, and Collier finished with six dishes in 28 minutes when he faced the Grizzlies two weeks ago.
Grizzlies vs. Jazz predictions made at 3:30 p.m. ET 03/25/2025.
March Madness returns to action on Thursday and Friday, and I’ve got a trio of best bets from the Sweet 16 games.
The pregame narrative: Facing arguably the toughest defensive matchup possible, I like the No. 4 Purdue Boilermakers to break through on offence and clear their modest team total. I’m also backing a pair of underdogs to cover their spreads (No. 3 Kentucky Wildcats, No. 4 Maryland Terrapins)
Check out my March Madness best bets for NCAA college basketball action on March 27-28.
The Boilermakers play very slowly, and so do their opponents, the 1-seed Houston Cougars. Pacing is the primary concern for this wager.
But I see a pathway to Purdue having an efficient offensive night on Friday — inside and out.
In the paint, Purdue has a size mismatch with Trey Kaufman-Renn (6-foot-9) and Caleb Furst (6-foot-10). The tallest players on Houston’s roster are 6-foot-8.
On the outside, the Boilermakers rank ninth in NCAA Division I in 3-point percentage (38.5%). They have four players shooting north of 38.0 3PT% on multiple attempts per game.
Purdue has only gone under 62.5 points twice in 35 games this year. For a team that ranks seventh in offensive efficiency, per KenPom.com, why on earth is this line so low?
Well, it’s because Houston ranks No. 1 in scoring defence (58.4 PPG) and No. 1 in defensive efficiency.
But the Cougars have allowed three of five postseason opponents to clear this point total, and I expect the Boilermakers to keep that rolling.
It also helps that this is practically a home game for Purdue despite Houston being the higher seed.
The game will take place at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. That’s an hour south of Purdue’s campus by car … and two hours north of Houston’s campus by plane.
Ket stat: Purdue averaged 77.7 PPG this year (79th in D-I).
NCAA college basketball picks
Kentucky +4.5 (-130): It’s difficult to beat a team three times in one season, and it’s rare to even get the opportunity. But that’s what Kentucky will try to do on Friday night.
The Wildcats beat the Tennessee Volunteers, 78-73, in late January on the road. They followed that up with a 75-64 win at home on Feb. 11.
Kentucky is 8-4 ATS as an underdog this year, so even if the season sweep falls short, I think Mark Pope’s squad will hang around.
Tennessee shoots a lot of 3-pointers (43.3% of its total field goal attempts, which is 79th in D-I), and that’s what Kentucky is best at defending. The Wildcats hold opponents to a 30.6 3PT%, which is 24th in the country.
Maryland +7 (-110): If you have any friends who are Maryland fans, tell them to get their blood pressure checked. It’s been that kind of season for the Terps.
All eight of their losses have come by six or fewer points.
Each of their past four losses came on a game-winning shot in the final seconds.
Maryland is coming off a buzzer-beater win of its own in the second round (vs. No. 12 Colorado State).
Florida is 0-2 ATS to open the tournament, and it suffered a genuine scare over the weekend against No. 8 UConn (trailing inside the final four minutes before gutting out a 77-75 win).
Maryland has the best interior player in this game (all-Big Ten honouree Derik Queen), as well as a perimeter defence (15th in 3PT%) capable of slowing down Walter Clayton Jr.
I expect Florida to win, but likely in heart-racing fashion.
March Madness best bets made at 1:15 p.m. ET 03/25/2025
