A long, cold winter is over. Toronto Blue Jays baseball is back with Thursday’s Opening Day matchup against the Baltimore Orioles.
The pregame narrative: For the second consecutive year, Jose Berrios and Zach Eflin will duke it out in the season opener. I’m backing the Jays on the five-inning moneyline and looking for Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to do damage.
Check out the best Blue Jays picks vs. the Orioles for Opening Day on March 27.
Blue Jays picks vs. Orioles
Best Bet: Guerrero over 1.5 bases (+105)
At a plus-money price, Guerrero’s bases prop was always worth a look last season — especially in the second half.
Check out Vladdy’s post-all-star production in 2024:
- .376 BA
- 1.127 OPS
- 2+ bases in 37 of 63 games
That late-season push didn’t lead to a $500-plus-million extension in the offseason, but it served as a reminder of how elite Guerrero is with a bat in his hands.
In 2024, Guerrero posted the highest xBA in the majors (.321), per Baseball Savant, and ranked in the 98th percentile in xSLG (.567) and average exit velocity (93.8 mph).
On Opening Day, he’s in a great matchup to mash against Eflin.
- Guerrero is 7-for-19 (.368) with two HRs and one double against Eflin.
- Eflin had a 98th-percentile walk rate in 2024 (3.5%), which is a plus for bases props because walks don’t count toward the total.
- At home last season, Guerrero batted .335 with a .970 OPS in 79 games.
Expect Vladdy to put on a show for the Rogers Centre crowd.
Key stat: Guerrero went over 1.5 bases in all four games against Eflin last year (three times while Eflin was with the Rays, and once while he was with the Orioles).
Quick pick
Blue Jays tie no bet – first five innings (-110): Whether he was on the Rays or the O’s last year, Eflin got knocked around pretty good by Toronto’s lineup.
In four starts, he allowed 15 runs (5.79 ERA) and a .313/.327/.515 opponent slash line. Woof.
Toronto went 3-1-0 on the F5 moneyline in those games.
Berrios went 0-1-1 on the F5 moneyline against the O’s last year (remember, Eflin was still on the Rays when they faced each other), but with just two total F5 runs from the Toronto lineup.
Given that Berrios has a 2.96 ERA in eight starts against Baltimore since 2022, I think it’s fair to expect he’ll hold up his end of the bargain. Especially with the Orioles’ top hitter, Gunnar Henderson, sidelined with an injury.
Blue Jays picks made at 1:20 p.m. on 03/26/25.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.