Jose Berrios looks to bounce back from an ugly Opening Day start when he and the Toronto Blue Jays host the Washington Nationals on Tuesday night.
The pregame narrative: I have three plus-money prop predictions for tonight, including a fade of Berrios. On Washington’s side, I’m targeting Trevor Williams and Nate Lowe.
Check out my Nationals vs. Blue Jays prop picks for April 1.
Nationals vs. Blue Jays prop picks
Best bet: Berrios under 4.5 Ks (+145)
In the first few weeks of the season, it’s easy to rush to overreactions — good and bad.
So maybe it seems like the expected thing for me to fade Berrios after his atrocious outing (six runs on nine hits in 5.0 innings) on March 27.
But take a look at Berrios’ three full seasons with the Blue Jays, and you’ll notice he’s an exceptionally durable pitcher who lacks elite strikeout stuff (MLB percentile rankings in parentheses):
| Season | K% | Whiff % |
| 2022 | 19.8% (28th) | 21.3% (15th) |
| 2023 | 23.5% (50th) | 25.5% (46th) |
| 2024 | 19.5% (22nd) | 21.1% (13th) |
Last season, according to Baseball Savant, Berrios finished in the bottom-25th percentile in xERA, xBA, whiff rate, K rate and hard-hit rate.
One poor start in 2025 isn’t a trend. But coming off a rough season, it certainly doesn’t inspire confidence.
The tricky thing about betting unders with Berrios is that he has a long leash. In 2024, he tossed at least 6.0 IP in 23 of 32 starts.
But the Nationals are one of the least strikeout-friendly squads in the majors, so I’m still willing to take the plunge. Since the start of last season, the Nats have the seventh-lowest K rate in MLB (20.7%).
Washington’s lineup only struck out four times in 6.0 IP against Bowden Francis on Monday. Even if Berrios pushes for the sixth inning, I think this under is attainable.
Key stat: Berrios only has six Ks in 45 plate appearances against the active Nationals lineup (13.3 K%). Washington hitters are 12-for-42 (.286) against him, with two homers and a double.
Prop predictions
Williams over 3.5 Ks (+132): Williams was excellent in a small sample last year, posting a 2.03 ERA and a roughly-league-average K rate (22.7%) in 13 starts.
He missed more than three months with a muscle strain but finished strong in two September outings: six hits, one run and 12 Ks in 10.0 innings.
Spring training stats don’t mean a ton, but I like that Williams fared well. He built up to 5.0 IP in back-to-back starts by the end of spring and finished with 19 Ks in 18.1 innings.
One more small-sample argument for you: Williams has posted seven strikeouts against the current Jays lineup in just 16 plate appearances (43.8 K%).
Lowe over 1.5 bases (+165): Through the first week-ish of the season, Lowe has been an all-or-nothing type of masher.
- 6-for-16 (.375)
- .813 SLG
- 8 Ks
Five of his eight balls in play clocked in at 104-plus mph, but half of his at-bats ended in a strikeout.
I’m not terribly concerned about his strikeout issues against Berrios, and I like that they have some familiarity already.
Lowe, formerly of the Texas Rangers, is 4-for-6 off Berrios.
Nationals vs. Blue Jays prop picks made at 11:00 a.m. ET on 04/01/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.