Jordan Horrobin, Author at The Boost

Blue Jays vs. Mets prop picks April 4: Fade Kevin Gausman, back Juan Soto to score

Kevin Gausman has had issues in the past against the New York Mets’ lineup, and I’m fading him in Friday’s series opener at Citi Field.

The pregame narrative: Gausman’s primary nemesis is first-year Met Juan Soto, who’s featured in my best bet for tonight. I also like the under on Gausman’s strikeouts prop.

Check out my Blue Jays picks vs. Mets for April 4.

Blue Jays picks vs. Mets

Best bet: Soto over 0.5 runs (-112)

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I was really tempted to back Soto over 1.5 bases (+130). But his bat hasn’t really gotten going yet, and his tendency to draw walks is too high.

Though I don’t like making a habit of minus-odds run props, this one is perfectly palatable.

Just look at how well Soto has fared in his past experiences against Gausman:

8-for-15 (.533)
12 walks
.741 OBP
.867 SLG

As mentioned, Soto has been quiet on offence so far, batting 5-for-27 (.238) through six games. But he also has six walks and has reached safely in every matchup.

Though Soto leads the way, he isn’t the only Met who has thrived against Gausman. As a collective lineup, New York has a .319 BA and a .542 SLG against the righty in 97 plate appearances.

I love Soto’s chances of finding a way on base. He ranked in the 100th percentile in xBA and walk rate last year, per Baseball Savant.

From the No. 2 spot in the Mets’ order, there should be at least a couple of capable bats behind him who can get to Gausman and bring Soto around.

Key stat: As a Yankee, Soto scored a run in all four matchups against Gausman last year, reaching base 14 times in those games.

Prop predictions

Gausman under 5.5 Ks (-125): Gausman’s strikeout numbers plummeted last season, and that’s something to watch for in 2025.

Last year, Gausman had an 8.1 K/9 and a 21.4 K%. In each of the previous five seasons, he’d had at least a 10.0 K/9 and 25.3 K%.

It’s early, but the Mets don’t look like a team he’ll be able to rack up strikeouts against.

NYM has the 9th-lowest K% in the majors (20.7).

Opposing starters have gone under 5.5 Ks in 4 of 6 games vs. the Mets.

Gausman had four Ks in 6.0 innings against the Orioles in his season debut. Last year, he went under 5.5 Ks in 18 of 31 starts.

Blue Jays vs. Mets picks made at 10:20 a.m. ET on 04/04/2025.

Best NBA prop bets April 4: Look for Gilgeous-Alexander, Reaves to star on Friday

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Austin Reaves both have great opportunities to score in bunches on Friday night.

The pregame narrative: I like Reaves on a back-to-back, which is a situation he’s thrived in this season. SGA has excelled against pretty much everyone, and the Houston Rockets are no exception. Elsewhere, Donovan Mitchell is a worthy fade on his points prop.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for April 4.

NBA prop bets

Best Bet: Reaves over 2.5 threes (-125)

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Reaves did his best Steph Curry impression last night, going 9-for-16 from beyond the arc in an exciting matchup against the Warriors.

I love this prop for Reaves, both because he’s shooting it well right now and because opportunities should come his way in the back-to-back setting.

Luka Doncic might take the night off after playing 37-plus minutes in six consecutive games. He’s rested in three of six back-to-backs since joining the Lakers.

LeBron James is unlikely to sit out, but his track record as a 3-point shooter is rough when playing on zero rest: 29.4 3PT%, 1.7 makes per game (9 games).

Reaves has only missed one of L.A.’s 11 back-to-backs this season. I could see him having a significant role against the New Orleans Pelicans.

Speaking of the Pelicans, they should provide a plus matchup for him. On a per-game basis, New Orleans allows the third-most made 3s (14.6) on the second-most attempts (40.0).

In his past 12 games, Reaves has cashed this bet eight times. He’s shooting 39.4 % from deep on 8.7 attempts in that span.

Key stat: Reaves is averaging 2.7 threes in 10 games on zero rest this season.

Best NBA picks

Mitchell under 25.5 points (-108): Without Victor Wembanyama manning the floor, the San Antonio Spurs are an easier team to score against.

But I think that benefit is more directly tied to big men than to guards like Mitchell.

The Spurs allow the ninth-fewest points per game to opposing point guards (24.0), according to Betting Pros.

Mitchell, who averages 24.0 PPG, finished with 25 points when he faced the Spurs last week. And that was without Evan Mobley in the lineup.

The Mobley-Jarrett Allen combo should be a force for Cleveland, and I don’t see Mitchell needing to do as much.

Mitchell has hit this under in eight of his past 11 games, averaging 22.1 PPG in that span.

Gilgeous-Alexander over 31.5 points (-117): As high as this line is, it actually sits comfortably below Gilgeous-Alexander’s scoring average for the year (32.8 PPG).

And the Rockets have proven to be a desirable matchup for the runaway MVP favourite.

Check out what he’s done in seven games against the Rockets since the start of last season:

34.9 PPG
56.8 FG%
29+ points in 7 of 7
32+ points in 5 of 7

When the Rockets last saw him, Gilgeous-Alexander put up 51 points on 18-of-30 shooting.

Houston allows the third-most points to opposing PGs — as well as the second-fewest assists.

NBA prop picks made at 9:35 a.m. ET on 04/04/2025.

March Madness Final Four parlay predictions: Bet on Florida to win, Duke’s Knueppel to score

The top four teams are the only ones left standing in March Madness.

The pregame narrative: In Saturday’s first best-on-best battle, I’m riding with the Florida Gators to topple the Auburn Tigers straight up. As for the second game, Kon Knueppel should fill the net even in a defence-first matchup.

Check out my March Madness parlay predictions for the Final Four on Saturday, April 5.

March Madness parlay predictions

Parlay: Florida ML | Knueppel over 1.5 threes (+150)

Florida ML (-163): Back in February, a shorthanded Florida team travelled to Auburn as an 11-point underdog and won, 90-81.

The Gators didn’t have second-leading scorer Alijah Martin (14.5 PPG) that day, but it didn’t matter.

Since then, Florida has rattled off 10 straight wins, which includes running the table at the SEC tournament — arguably as impressive as winning March Madness would be.

Florida and Auburn both rank in the top 10 in offensive and defensive efficiency, per KenPom.com, and they both have game-breaking stars (Walter Clayton Jr. and Johni Broome, respectively).

To me, the edge lies in the fact that the Gators earned a relatively comfortable road win against the Tigers already this year, and that it came without Martin.

Florida is 31-2 SU as a favourite. With Martin back, I expect another win for the Gators.

College basketball parlay picks

Knueppel over 1.5 threes (-182): Although I don’t expect a ton of offence in the Houston vs. Duke game, I think a pair of 3s from Knueppel is well within reach.

Knueppel has 2+ threes in 7 of 9 games since March 3.
He’s shooting 7-of-13 from beyond the arc in March Madness.

He has a 40.1 3PT% on the season.

Cooper Flagg isn’t the only NBA lottery-bound freshman in Duke’s starting lineup. And while opposing teams do their best to slow down the projected No. 1 pick, Knueppel is talented enough to take advantage.

Knueppel has cashed this bet in three straight games and is averaging 2.1 threes this year.

March Madness parlay predictions made at 4:15 p.m. ET 04/02/2025.

Best MLB prop bets April 2: Eugenio Suarez, Tarik Skubal should shine on Wednesday

Eugenio Suarez is enjoying an early-season power surge, and I’m buying in for Wednesday’s MLB prop bets.

The pregame narrative: Suarez homered for the fifth time in as many games last night, and his price to merely collect a hit has my attention. I’m also backing Tarik Skubal in an A-plus matchup.

Check out the best MLB prop bets for April 2.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Skubal over 7.5 Ks (+120)

Skubal struggled in his season debut against the absolutely loaded Los Angeles Dodgers. Hey, it happens.

He’s staring down a much better matchup on Wednesday in the pitcher-friendly confines of T-Mobile Park against the swing-happy Seattle Mariners.

Last year, Skubal led the majors in strikeouts (228) en route to earning AL Cy Young honours. And his changeup deserves a lot of the credit.

Skubal generated a 46.2% whiff rate on his changeup last year, per Baseball Savant. That was the second-highest whiff rate of any pitch in the majors.

In a pair of starts against the Mariners, Skubal collected 19 whiffs on 32 swings when he threw the changeup. That’s a 59.4% whiff rate, which is frankly out of this world.

Skubal saw the Mariners in back-to-back turns through the rotation in August, and he dusted them both times.

On Aug. 7, he had nine Ks in 7.0 innings, allowing two runs on three hits.

Then on Aug. 13, he collected another nine Ks in 6.0 IP, allowing one run on three hits.

This matchup is made for Skubal to succeed, and I love the plus-money price on a very attainable Ks prop.

Since the start of last season, Seattle has the highest whiff rate on changeups thrown by lefties (38.0%).

Key stat: Skubal averaged 7.4 Ks in 31 regular season starts last year.

Best MLB picks

Suarez over 0.5 hits (-120): Suarez has five hits through five games. All of them have left the yard.

Yes, Arizona’s veteran slugger is 5-for-18 with five home runs. He took Mark Leiter deep in the eighth inning at Yankee Stadium last night.

Returning to the same homer-friendly park tonight, I think Suarez has a ton of value to cash this bet.

Suarez is 2-for-5 with a double against Yankees starter Carlos Rodon.

In his 12-year career, the right-handed Suarez has an .838 OPS against LHPs.

MLB prop picks made at 2:12 p.m. ET on 04/02/2025.

Best MLB prop bets April 2: Eugenio Suarez, Tarik Skubal should shine on Wednesday

Eugenio Suarez is enjoying an early-season power surge, and I’m buying in for Wednesday’s MLB prop bets.

The pregame narrative: Suarez homered for the fifth time in as many games last night, and his price to go over 1.5 bases has my attention. I’m also backing Jackson Holliday and Tarik Skubal.

Check out the best MLB prop bets for April 2.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Skubal over 7.5 Ks (+116)

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Skubal struggled in his season debut against the absolutely loaded Los Angeles Dodgers. Hey, it happens.

He’s staring down a much better matchup on Wednesday in the pitcher-friendly confines of T-Mobile Park against the swing-happy Seattle Mariners.

Last year, Skubal led the majors in strikeouts (228) en route to earning AL Cy Young honours. And his changeup deserves a lot of the credit.

Skubal generated a 46.2% whiff rate on his changeup last year, per Baseball Savant. That was the second-highest whiff rate of any pitch in the majors.

In a pair of starts against the Mariners, Skubal collected 19 whiffs on 32 swings when he threw the changeup. That’s a 59.4% whiff rate, which is frankly out of this world.

Skubal saw the Mariners in back-to-back turns through the rotation in August, and he dusted them both times.

On Aug. 7, he had nine Ks in 7.0 innings, allowing two runs on three hits.

Then on Aug. 13, he collected another nine Ks in 6.0 IP, allowing one run on three hits.

This matchup is made for Skubal to succeed, and I love the plus-money price on a very attainable Ks prop.

Since the start of last season, Seattle has the highest whiff rate on changeups thrown by lefties (38.0%).

Key stat: Skubal averaged 7.4 Ks in 31 regular season starts last year.

Best MLB picks

Holliday over 0.5 hits (-114): After a thoroughly disappointing debut season, is Holliday ready for a sophomore surge?

He’s off to a nice start, batting 6-for-20 (.316) with a homer. The 21-year-old has cashed this bet in five of six games.

A lefty-lefty matchup against Garrett Crochet certainly isn’t a plus, but Crochet allowed lefties to hit .247 last year. Not as daunting as you might think.

Breaking pitches, like sliders and curveballs, were Holliday’s main undoing last year. Crochet doesn’t through either of those to lefties, so hopefully the youngster can find something to hit.

Suarez over 1.5 bases (+230): Suarez has five hits through five games. All of them have left the yard.

Yes, Arizona’s veteran slugger is 5-for-18 with five home runs. He took Mark Leiter deep in the eighth inning at Yankee Stadium last night.

Returning to the same homer-friendly park tonight, I think Suarez has a ton of value to cash this bet.

Suarez is 2-for-5 with a double against Yankees starter Carlos Rodon.

In his 12-year career, the right-handed Suarez has an .838 OPS against LHPs.

MLB prop picks made at 12:52 p.m. ET on 04/02/2025.

March Madness Final Four odds, schedule and betting notes: Houston, Auburn are underdogs in powerhouse battles

Only the biggest names remain at the Final Four of the 2025 men’s NCAA tournament. It’s an almost unprecedented extent of heavyweight power.

The latest: All four No. 1 seeds are alive at the Final Four for just the second time in 45 years. The previous all-chalk iteration was 2008. Neither matchup is a pick’em, though, with the Duke Blue Devils and Florida Gators favoured to advance.

Check out the latest Final Four odds for the March Madness semifinal games on Saturday, April 5.

Final Four odds

Final Four odds as of 11:10 a.m. ET on 04/02/25.

Matchup: Florida Gators vs. Auburn Tigers
Date: Saturday, April 5: 6:09 p.m. ET

Team	ML	Spread	Total
Florida	-163	-2.5 (-112)	Over 159.5 (-110)
Auburn	+135	+2.5 (-106)	Under 159.5 (-110)

Matchup: Houston Cougars vs. Duke Blue Devils
Date: Saturday, April 5: 8:49 p.m. ET

Team	ML	Spread	Total
Houston	+210	+5 (-110)	Over 136 (-110)
Duke	-264	-5 (-110)	Under 136 (-110)

Final Four betting insights

Florida was an underdog when it previously faced Auburn, and that turned into a 90-81 road win for the Gators. Five Florida players finished in double figures in that Feb. 8 matchup.

Florida is 7-3 ATS in March and has the best overall ATS record of the remaining teams (27-11).

Auburn is 3-1 ATS during March Madness and has won three of its four games by 12+ points. The Tigers have already faced all three of their Final Four contemporaries: Florida (90-81 L), Duke (84-78 L), and Houston (74-69 W).

Also, unders are 5-1 in the Tigers’ past six games.

Houston surely has vengeance on the mind after losing to Duke, 54-51, in last year’s Sweet 16. Aside from losing Jamal Shead to the NBA, this Cougars squad is largely the same as last year (eighth in minutes continuity, per KenPom.com).

Houston is on a 17-game win streak, and its opponent scored fewer than 70 points in 16 of those games.

Duke has been dominant so far, as many expected. The Blue Devils have three wins of 20+ points, as well as a seven-point win over Arizona in which they never trailed after the first six minutes.

Cooper Flagg is doing his part, but he’s not alone. Kon Knueppel has back-to-back 20-point games, while Tyrese Proctor has scored at least 15 points in three of four matchups.

Nationals vs. Blue Jays prop picks April 2: Bet on Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to power up in matinee

With a sweep in play, the Toronto Blue Jays host the Washington Nationals for a Wednesday afternoon matchup.

The pregame narrative: It’ll be a bullpen game for the Jays, and I think Nats leadoff CJ Abrams will find a way to score. But my best bet is on Vladimir Guerrero Jr., whose plus-money bases prop is quite enticing.

Check out my Nationals vs. Blue Jays prop picks for April 2.

Nationals vs. Blue Jays prop picks

Best bet: Guerrero over 1.5 bases (+110)

With the Jays off to a 4-2 start, you might think Guerrero would be mashing the baseball all over the yard. That hasn’t really been the case.

Well, he is still hitting lasers — including an unsustainable 70.6% hard-hit rate that is nearly double MLB’s average — but he hasn’t squared up a lot of pitches yet. That will come.

It would take a serious slump for me to steer clear of a plus-money bases prop on Vlad Jr. There’s just too much to like.

Guerrero has 2+ bases in 38 of 69 games since last year’s all-star break.

He finished the 2024 season in the 98th percentile for xSLG (.567) and the 100th percentile for xBA (.321), per Baseball Savant.

Against Nationals starter Mackenzie Gore, Guerrero is 3-for-5 with a home run.

Guerrero is a serious threat against any pitcher, so today’s lefty-righty matchup isn’t an added bonus. But he did post a career-best .956 OPS against lefties last season.

Though Guerrero can blitz a fastball with the best of them, he might also be able to feast on one of Gore’s changeups.

In 2024, Vlad Jr. slugged .533 off changeups from left-handed pitchers.

Key stat: Guerrero went 2-for-2 with a home run when he last faced Gore (May 5, 2024).

Prop prediction

Abrams over 0.5 runs (-118): Abrams and the Nationals will see lefty reliever Easton Lucas as today’s opener for likely a couple of innings. After that, it’s anyone’s guess who will be on the rubber.

I’d like to see Abrams jump on Lucas early, even in a lefty-lefty matchup.

Lucas wasn’t good last season, allowing 15 runs in 11.2 innings (10.80 ERA) across three clubs.

Abrams has an .815 OPS against LHPs since the start of 2024.

Washington has already seen seven of Toronto’s nine relief arms, so there will be some familiarity once Lucas exits. That helps.

It also helps to know that Abrams has been the Nats’ best player this series.

The leadoff man is 4-for-8 with three extra-base hits and has scored in both games.

Nationals vs. Blue Jays prop picks made at 10:20 a.m. ET on 04/02/2025.

Nationals vs. Blue Jays prop picks April 2: Bet on Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to power up in matinee

With a sweep in play, the Toronto Blue Jays host the Washington Nationals for a Wednesday afternoon matchup.

The pregame narrative: It’ll be a bullpen game for the Jays, and I think Nats leadoff CJ Abrams will find a way to score. But my best bet is on Vladimir Guerrero Jr., whose plus-money bases prop is quite enticing.

Check out my Nationals vs. Blue Jays prop picks for April 2.

Nationals vs. Blue Jays prop picks

Best bet: Guerrero over 1.5 bases (+123)

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With the Jays off to a 4-2 start, you might think Guerrero would be mashing the baseball all over the yard. That hasn’t really been the case.

Well, he is still hitting lasers — including an unsustainable 70.6% hard-hit rate that is nearly double MLB’s average — but he hasn’t squared up a lot of pitches yet. That will come.

It would take a serious slump for me to steer clear of a plus-money bases prop on Vlad Jr. There’s just too much to like.

Guerrero has 2+ bases in 38 of 69 games since last year’s all-star break.

He finished the 2024 season in the 98th percentile for xSLG (.567) and the 100th percentile for xBA (.321), per Baseball Savant.

Against Nationals starter Mackenzie Gore, Guerrero is 3-for-5 with a home run.

Guerrero is a serious threat against any pitcher, so today’s lefty-righty matchup isn’t an added bonus. But he did post a career-best .956 OPS against lefties last season.

Though Guerrero can blitz a fastball with the best of them, he might also be able to feast on one of Gore’s changeups.

In 2024, Vlad Jr. slugged .533 off changeups from left-handed pitchers.

Key stat: Guerrero went 2-for-2 with a home run when he last faced Gore (May 5, 2024).

Prop prediction

Abrams over 0.5 runs (+102): Abrams and the Nationals will see lefty reliever Easton Lucas as today’s opener for likely a couple of innings. After that, it’s anyone’s guess who will be on the rubber.

I’d like to see Abrams jump on Lucas early, even in a lefty-lefty matchup.

Lucas wasn’t good last season, allowing 15 runs in 11.2 innings (10.80 ERA) across three clubs.

Abrams has an .815 OPS against LHPs since the start of 2024.

Washington has already seen seven of Toronto’s nine relief arms, so there will be some familiarity once Lucas exits. That helps.

It also helps to know that Abrams has been the Nats’ best player this series.

The leadoff man is 4-for-8 with three extra-base hits and has scored in both games.

Nationals vs. Blue Jays prop picks made at 10:20 a.m. ET on 04/02/2025.

Braves vs. Dodgers prop picks April 1: Fade Chris Sale against dominant, unbeaten L.A.

The winless Atlanta Braves turn to their ace, Chris Sale, as they look to take down the unbeaten Los Angeles Dodgers on Tuesday night.

The pregame narrative: Sale wields one of the sharpest arsenals in MLB, but I’m fading him tonight at plus money. I also like Mookie Betts to cross the plate for a fourth consecutive game.

Check out my Braves vs. Dodgers prop picks for April 1.

Braves vs. Dodgers prop picks

Best bet: Betts over 0.5 runs (+110)

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A stomach virus put Betts on the shelf to start the year, but he’s taken plenty of healthy hacks since returning.

In three games, here’s what the seven-time Silver Slugger has accomplished:

5-for-13 (.385)
5 runs
1+ runs in 3 of 3 games

Betts bats in the No. 2 spot of a laughably loaded Dodgers lineup, with stars like Freddie Freeman, Teoscar Hernandez and Will Smith behind him.

That trio has combined to bat 15-for-49 (.306) with eight extra-base hits so far.

Freeman may not play tonight after tweaking his ankle and missing Monday’s matchup. But even if he’s unavailable again, L.A. has no shortage of RBI opportunists.

Also, Betts has a solid history in prior meetings with Sale: 4-for-12 (.333) with a pair of doubles.

Sale was hittable in his season debut, allowing three runs on six hits and a walk in 5.0 innings.

Key stat: Betts has a .305/.404/.576 slash line against lefties since the 2023 season.

Prop predictions

Sale under 17.5 outs (+108): The Braves (0-5) are surely hungry for their first win, and I’m sure Sale will try to do what he can to make that happen. But fading his outs total looks like a value play to me.

Though he only went under this total in 10 of 29 starts last year, Sale hit this under in back-to-back outings to start 2024. And he went under in his debut this season.

The Dodgers led MLB in team OPS last year (.781), and they’re off to another stellar start. Through six games, L.A. is averaging 6.0 runs while posting an .834 OPS.

All six starters who’ve faced the Dodgers this season have gone under 17.5 outs.

Sale is a superb pitcher who landed on exactly 18 outs in his lone start against L.A. last season.

But given how rested the Braves’ bullpen is — four pitchers enter with at least two days off — I don’t see a need to push Sale if things get even a bit messy.

Braves vs. Dodgers prop picks made at 1:10 p.m. ET on 04/01/2025.

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Nationals vs. Blue Jays prop picks April 1: Fade Jose Berrios, ride with Nathaniel Lowe

Jose Berrios looks to bounce back from an ugly Opening Day start when he and the Toronto Blue Jays host the Washington Nationals on Tuesday night.

The pregame narrative: I have two MLB prop predictions for tonight, including a fade of Berrios. On Washington’s side, I’m targeting Nate Lowe at even money.

Check out my Nationals vs. Blue Jays prop picks for April 1.

Nationals vs. Blue Jays prop picks

Best bet: Berrios under 5.5 Ks (-154)

In the first few weeks of the season, it’s easy to rush to overreactions — good and bad.

So maybe it seems like the expected thing for me to fade Berrios after his atrocious outing (six runs on nine hits in 5.0 innings) on March 27.

But take a look at Berrios’ three full seasons with the Blue Jays, and you’ll notice he’s an exceptionally durable pitcher who lacks elite strikeout stuff (MLB percentile rankings in parentheses):

Season	K%	Whiff %
2022	19.8% (28th)	21.3% (15th)
2023	23.5% (50th)	25.5% (46th)
2024	19.5% (22nd)	21.1% (13th)

Last season, according to Baseball Savant, Berrios finished in the bottom-25th percentile in xERA, xBA, whiff rate, K rate and hard-hit rate.

One poor start in 2025 isn’t a trend. But coming off a rough season, it certainly doesn’t inspire confidence.

The tricky thing about betting unders with Berrios is that he has a long leash. In 2024, he tossed at least 6.0 IP in 23 of 32 starts.

But the Nationals are one of the least strikeout-friendly squads in the majors, so I’m still willing to take the plunge. Since the start of last season, the Nats have the seventh-lowest K rate in MLB (20.7%).

Washington’s lineup only struck out four times in 6.0 IP against Bowden Francis on Monday. Even if Berrios pushes for the sixth inning, I think this under is attainable.

Key stat: Berrios only has six Ks in 45 plate appearances against the active Nationals lineup (13.3 K%). Washington hitters are 12-for-42 (.286) against him, with two homers and a double.

Prop prediction

Lowe over 1.5 hits/runs/RBI (+100): Through the first week-ish of the season, Lowe has been an all-or-nothing type of masher.

6-for-16 (.375)
.813 SLG
8 Ks

Five of his eight balls in play clocked in at 104-plus mph, but half of his at-bats ended in a strikeout.

I’m not terribly concerned about his strikeout issues against Berrios, and I like that they have some familiarity already.

Lowe, formerly of the Texas Rangers, is 4-for-6 off Berrios.

Nationals vs. Blue Jays prop picks made at 11:40 a.m. ET on 04/01/2025.