In the 68-team, single-elimination format of March Madness, all sorts of wild and unpredictable outcomes are bound to happen. And they do.
That’s why even some of the best programs enter the tournament with odds of 30-to-1 (3.23% implied probability) or longer. You just never know how things will shake out.
Leaning into the potential for anarchy, I’ve identified three compelling March Madness long shot picks for the 2025 NCAA men’s basketball tournament.
March Madness long shot picks
For most of the season, two teams stood out well ahead of the pack: the Duke Blue Devils and the Auburn Tigers.
Both squads are still well ahead of the rest of the field on the March Madness odds leaderboard. But they’ve shown some recent vulnerabilities that are worth highlighting.
- Auburn lost back-to-back games to close out the regular season — after losing just two previous games all year.
- Duke’s freshman megastar, Cooper Flagg, sustained an ankle injury in the ACC tournament quarterfinal. He then missed the semis and the final.
A No. 1 seed has won the national championship in six of the past seven tourneys, and Duke and Auburn are locked in as top seeds this year. But I think there are some valuable options further down the board.
Best March Madness long shot
Wisconsin Badgers (+4,500)
The Badgers have some standout traits that should make them legitimate threats to go the distance in this tourney.
- Strong showing in a tough conference: The Big Ten is projected to have eight tournament teams, per ESPN’s Joe Lunardi, which is tied for the second-most in NCAA Division I. Wisconsin went 13-7 in the Big Ten and reached the conference tournament title game.
- Fundamentally sound: Wisconsin has the No. 1 free throw percentage in the country (82.8%) and ranks 19th in offensive turnover rate (14.4%), per KenPom.com.
- Has experience: Led by a trio of seniors in the starting lineup, Wisconsin ranks 45th in the nation in average D-I experience (2.59 years).
- Has a game-breaking star: Sixth-year transfer John Tonje averages a team-high 19.1 points while shooting 39.8% from deep and 91.3% from the free-throw line.
Wisconsin doesn’t have a truly ugly loss, either. The Badgers’ worst loss came against Penn State, which is ranked No. 60 of 364 by KenPom.
I’m sometimes wary of teams that shoot a ton of 3s, and Wisconsin is one of those. But the Badgers’ NCAA-best free throw shooting provides a nice offensive safety net.
It’s been almost a decade, but coach Greg Gard has shepherded two Wisconsin squads into the Sweet 16 in his tenure. I think he has the pieces to go even further this time.
Other March Madness long shots
Gonzaga Bulldogs (+4,000)
By Gonzaga’s sky-high standards, this is a down year. The Bulldogs are 25-8, at risk of matching their lowest season win total since the Kelly Olynyk era in 2010-11.
Still, Gonzaga won another West Coast Conference tournament title and enters the Big Dance with a stellar offence:
- 2nd in PPG (86.6)
- 5th in FT% (80.1)
- 5th in turnover% (13.2)
- 11th in 2PT% (57.8)
The Zags are a March Madness staple, reaching the Sweet 16 or better in nine consecutive tournaments (including two national title appearances). Mark Few knows how to rise to the high-pressure occasion in March.
Last year’s squad ran into a Zach Edey-sized buzzsaw in the Sweet 16, but four of Gonzaga’s five starters are back for vengeance.
Like Wisconsin, there aren’t really any ugly losses to speak. All eight of the Zags’ losses came by a single-digit margin against a top-90-ranked KenPom team, and three of them were in overtime.
Clemson Tigers (+7,000)
You’re going to notice a theme now. I like experienced teams that have solid roster continuity.
Clemson fits that bill, with the eighth-most average D-I experience (3.02 years) and the 89th-most minutes continuity from last year (46.3%).
Ex-Tiger PJ Hall will be missed in this year’s tourney, but there are still plenty of contributors from last season’s Elite Eight squad.
That includes all-ACC forward Ian Schieffelin, who’s averaging close to a double-double (12.8 points, 9.4 rebounds).
Clemson is a balanced team that ranks inside the top 25 in offensive and defensive efficiency. The Tigers are also the only ACC program to beat Duke this year, and they’re 15-2 since Jan. 11.
March Madness picks made at 10:00 a.m. on 03/17/25
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.