Upsets are the backbone of what makes March Madness exhilarating. We know we’ll have some — it’s just a matter of picking the right ones.
The pregame narrative: The No. 12 UC San Diego Tritons haven’t lost in two months, and I expect them to keep the good times rolling against the No. 5 Michigan Wolverines. I’m also backing the No. 12 Liberty Flames and the No. 11 Drake Bulldogs.
Check out my March Madness upset picks for the first round of the NCAA tournament.
March Madness upset picks
Best Bet: UC San Diego moneyline (+125)
Congratulations, Michigan, on a stellar run to a Big Ten tournament championship.
Your reward is a nightmarish first round matchup that requires you to travel west and face one of NCAA Division I’s hottest teams.
UC San Diego is riding the nation’s longest win streak (15 games) and should be a matchup nightmare for Michigan.
- UCSD had the best turnover margin in D-I this year, averaging a +7.3 turnover advantage per game. The Tritons forced the 8th-most turnovers while allowing the 2nd-fewest.
- Michigan committed the 23rd-most turnovers per game this season and had a -2.7 turnover disadvantage per game.
UCSD is a much smaller team than Michigan, with no rotation players taller than 6-foot-8 (while the Wolverines have two 7-footers in their starting five). But that shouldn’t rattle the Tritons’ offensive plans.
The Tritons are volume shooters from deep, attempting 49.6% of their field goals beyond the 3-point line (eighth-most in D-I).
And in its past 13 games, UCSD is shooting 40.1% from beyond the arc.
Keep in mind that Michigan is also at a situational disadvantage, having played in the last pre-tournament game on Sunday before travelling west for Thursday’s matchup in Denver.
Key stat: UC San Diego has the best ATS record in the country (25-7-0) and is 5-1 straight up as an underdog.
NCAA underdog predictions
Liberty moneyline (+235): Only two schools finished in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive eFG% — Duke and … Liberty.
Yes, the Flames benefitted from playing in Conference USA, a one-bid conference that doesn’t have any other top-100-ranked schools at KenPom.com. But that doesn’t completely explain away the Flames’ scorching shooters.
- Liberty ranks 5th in D-I in 3PT% (39.5). The Flames have five players who shoot 38.9% or better from deep on at least 2.2 attempts.
- The Flames’ offensive balance is exemplified by Taelon Peter, who leads the team in scoring (13.9 PPG) while coming off the bench. The senior D-II transfer owns a 46.0 3PT% and a 76.1 2PT%.
The No. 5 Oregon Ducks (24-9, 12-8 Big Ten) are a solid team without any glaring losses. But the Flames are a dangerous bunch on offence, and if they get hot enough, the Ducks will have problems.
Drake moneyline (+210): Drake is 18-1 since Jan. 8, and its only loss came by two points more than a month ago.
It’s great to see how well this team is gelling right now considering the roster was almost completely remade after last year’s tourney appearance.
First-year coach Ben McCollum, who led D-II Northwest Missouri State to a dynastic 11 consecutive conference titles, brought three of his best players with him to Drake.
The Bulldogs have the least D-I experience among the 68-team March Madness field (0.33 years/player), yet they absolutely dominated a decent Missouri Valley Conference.
On the flip side, the No. 6 Missouri Tigers (22-11, 10-8 SEC) had a so-so record in the vaunted SEC. Mizzou went 2-5 down the stretch.
To win as an underdog, you often need to create a disruption of some kind. Drake, which plays at the slowest adjusted tempo in D-I, has the chance to get Missouri off schedule and pull off the upset.
March Madness upset picks made at 11:50 a.m. ET on 03/17/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.