We’re one week away from the first round of March Madness, but there’s plenty of conference tournament action to cover first.
The pregame narrative: On Thursday night, I expect the Clemson Tigers and Villanova Wildcats to cover alt spreads in their respective tournament matchups. Elsewhere, there’s one particular SEC showdown that has major shootout potential.
Check out my NCAA basketball predictions for March 13.
NCAA basketball predictions
Full college basketball betting markets
Parlay: Villanova +9.5 | Clemson -4.5 | Oklahoma/Kentucky o158.5 points (+300)
Villanova +9.5 (-167): Villanova is playing for its postseason life and needs at least another win or two to have a shot at cracking the March Madness field.
I’m not sure that’ll happen, but I do expect the Wildcats to play with the hunger and verve that put them on the cusp of contention.
Since Feb. 5, Villanova is 7-3 SU and ATS, with wins over No. 6 St. John’s, No. 25 Marquette and Xavier.
The Wildcats did lose to the UConn Huskies in that span, but only by a seven-point margin. Villanova has covered a +10.5 spread in 27 of 32 games this season.
KenPom.com and BartTorvik.com are both projecting a two-point win for UConn tonight.
Other parlay predictions
Clemson -4.5 (-175): I’m high on the Tigers heading into March Madness, and I recently picked them to win the ACC tournament.
Why? After making the Elite Eight last year, Clemson brought back a ton of talent. The program has a 46.3% minutes continuity, which ranks 90th out of 364 schools.
Also, the Tigers are 14-1 (12-3 ATS) since Jan. 11, and their only loss came in triple overtime. In that span, they beat No. 1 Duke — the only ACC school to do so — and covered this spread in 13 of 14 victories.
Now the team faces the SMU Mustangs, who Clemson beat by 10 points on Feb. 22. The Tigers led the Mustangs for the entire second half.
Since its loss to Clemson, SMU is just 1-4-1 ATS.
Oklahoma/Kentucky over 158.5 points (-163): The Oklahoma Sooners and Kentucky Wildcats combined for 165 points in their lone matchup this season, and KenPom projects another 165-point total tonight. That’s part of the reason I like this teased-down over.
Another reason is that both teams should be willing to play this game at a blistering pace. Kentucky and Oklahoma rank 42nd and 66th in average offensive possession length.
- The Wildcats have cleared this total in 6 of 7 games since Feb. 15
- The average total in the Sooners’ past six games is 166.7 points.
Oklahoma ranks ninth in NCAA Division I in free throw percentage (79.3%) while ranking 39th in free throw attempts (22.2/game).
Kentucky has five players averaging 10-plus points and ranks third in the country in scoring (85.8 PPG).
Picks made at 2:05 p.m. ET 03/13/2025
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.