Despite some awful results in recent road matchups, the Los Angeles Clippers are hefty favourites tonight against the New Orleans Pelicans at Smoothie King Center.
The pregame narrative: I like New Orleans to cover an outsized spread as home underdogs — even though I’m fading Trey Murphy from deep. To round out this +285 parlay, bet on Ivica Zubac to have a busy night as a rebounder.
Check out my Clippers vs. Pelicans SGP predictions for March 11.
Clippers vs. Pelicans predictions
Parlay: Pelicans +10.5 | Zubac 12+ rebounds | Murphy under 3.5 threes (+285)
Pelicans +10.5 (-225): New Orleans has the NBA’s third-worst ATS record this season (26-38-1), but I’d still rather be on this side of the spread tonight.
That’s because the Clippers have been an utter ATS nightmare when trying to cover on the road.
- L.A. is on a 10-game ATS losing streak as a road team.
- The Clippers are just 12-20 ATS on the road this season.
- The Clippers are 5-27 against a -10.5 road spread.
These teams met in New Orleans back on Dec. 30, and the Clippers scraped by with a three-point win as 4.5-point favourites. I just can’t back L.A. on a spread this sizable.
NBA SGP legs
Zubac 12+ rebounds (-240): In the aforementioned December matchup, Zubac feasted on the glass. He had 16 of the Clippers’ 40 rebounds, and was six boards clear of anyone on the Pelicans.
New Orleans allows the most rebounds per game to opposing centres (17.49), per Betting Pros, making this a cream-of-the-crop matchup for Zubac.
The Pelicans also allow the second-most rebounds overall (46.6/game) and own the third-lowest rebounding rate (48.1%).
Given that Zubac averages 12.5 rebounds, this milestone should be well within range.
Murphy under 3.5 threes (-175): Murphy is putting up plenty of 3s these days, but his efficiency has been dreadful.
Check out Murphy’s 3-point numbers over his past 15 games:
- 30.8 3PT%
- 2.5 makes
- 8.0 attempts
- Under 3.5 threes in 12 of 15
This has been the worst of Murphy’s four seasons in terms of 3-point percentage (36.1%), and I don’t expect him to over-index against the Clippers.
L.A. allows the ninth-lowest 3PT% (35.1) and the 12th-fewest total 3s per game (13.2).
Clippers vs. Pelicans predictions made at 11:00 a.m. ET on 03/11/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.