Avery Perri

The Seattle Mariners and New York Mets settle their rubber match on Sunday Night Baseball.

The pregame narrative: New York is in a tailspin this month, going 3-11 without a series win. The Mets won yesterday, but are home underdogs in primetime with Clay Holmes pitching opposite Seattle’s George Kirby.

Check out my Mariners vs. Mets prop bets, featuring prop bets on Juan Soto and Eugenio Suarez.

Mariners vs. Mets prop bets

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Best Bet: Soto to score (-112)

This is a smash play in my books, even if Soto is having a “down year” by his standards.

His .383 on-base percentage is the lowest mark of his career, but that amazingly still ranks eighth in MLB. Turns out having a league-best 17.4% walk rate will do that.

On any given day, Soto is likely to find the basepaths and have an opportunity to score.

The first-year Met went 1-for-3 yesterday and didn’t score, snapping a streak of eight consecutive games with a run. I like him to get back on the saddle against Kirby.

• Soto has a .405 OBP against righties this year, launching 24 of his 30 homers against RHPs.

• Kirby is allowing a .309 OBP to LHHs, much higher than his .240 OBP mark against RHHs.

• Soto is 3-for-3 off Kirby in his career.

The only worry here is trusting the Mets behind him to produce against a pitcher who has logged four straight quality starts.

But Brandon Nimmo, Pete Alonso and Jeff McNeil are a combined 4-for-10 off the righty, and I could also see Soto driving himself home with a bomb.

Key stat: Soto’s 87 runs rank third in MLB.

Best MLB picks

Suarez under 0.5 hits (+155): Suarez has been a mess this month, batting .135 over 14 games and going hitless in half of them.

He does have a knock in four straight, but that doesn’t faze me. Suarez’s 40.3% K rate this month is astronomical, and his season-long .226 xBA ranks in the 10th percentile.

The third baseman is an all-or-nothing bat with a ton of power, but things can get really ugly when he’s not seeing the ball well.

Holmes is far from an elite arm, but he has a respectable 3.71 ERA and keeps the ball out of the air at an elite rate (56.9% ground ball rate, 95th percentile).

The righty also has a 9.6% walk rate, which would help us out if he gives Suarez a free pass.

Mariners vs. Mets prop bets made at 12:31 p.m. ET on 08/17/2025.

Breakout star Andrew Vaughn headlines Sunday’s MLB prop bets.

Today’s MLB props narrative: Vaughn has been raking since joining the Milwaukee Brewers at the trade deadline and is worth backing with a platoon advantage today. Elsewhere, Brent Rooker should stay hot in a familiar matchup.

Check out my favourite MLB prop bets for Aug. 17, featuring a play on Kansas City Royals pitcher Ryan Bergert.

MLB prop bets

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Best bet: Vaughn over 1.5 bases (+100)

It’s amazing what a change of scenery can do for a player.

Vaughn, the 2019 third-overall pick, never got on with the Chicago White Sox. In his four full seasons with the club, he never had an OPS north of .750 and generated a -0.7 fWAR.

So it’s almost laughable to see what he’s doing now in a 30-game sample with the Brewers:

• .330/.395/.624 splits
• 181 wRC+
• 1.6 fWAR

Is that sustainable? Probably not. But right now, the outfielder is scorching hot, and I want in.

Vaughn has done most of his damage against lefties, slashing .455/.550/.667 in 41 plate appearances since joining the Brewers.

Andrew Abbott is on the mound for the opposing Cincinnati Reds, and the southpaw is having a great year (2.41 ERA, 1.11 WHIP).

But Vaughn has the benefit of a platoon advantage while playing in the hitter-friendly confines of Great American Ballpark, and that’s good enough for me.

Key stat: Vaughn’s 279 wRC+ vs. LHPs since the all-star break is third in MLB.

Best MLB picks

Bergert over 4.5 Ks (+115): If you’re not familiar with Bergert’s game, that’s fine. Just know the rookie has a 3.14 ERA as a starter this year and is going up against the black hole of an organization Vaughn just escaped, the White Sox.

Bergert just had his best game as a prop, fanning eight twins over 5.2 innings of two-run ball.

His putaway pitch is his slider, which generates a 31.1% whiff rate. The White Sox have a 37.0% whiff against sliders, which is the third-highest in MLB.

Chicago’s lineup can’t hit most pitches well, to be fair, and has the 11th-highest K rate in MLB.

Rooker over 1.5 bases (+105): I backed Rooker to go deep in yesterday’s MLB home run picks, and he came through with a towering shot in the fifth inning.

That was his 25th homer of the season and marked the fifth time in his last nine games he’s cleared this total.

He should have every opportunity to stay hot today against Jose Soriano and the Los Angeles Angels.

Rooker is 5-for-10 with a double and a home run against the hard-throwing righty with just one strikeout.

Soriano struggles to miss bats and has a fifth-percentile hard-hit rate, so I’m liking Rooker’s chances of sending one for extra bases if he makes contact.

MLB prop picks made at 10:23 a.m. ET on 08/17/2025.

The Toronto Blue Jays look to sweep the Texas Rangers at Rogers Centre on Sunday.

The pregame narrative: Toronto’s offence erupted for 14 runs yesterday, and now faces Nathan Eovaldi (1.71 ERA), who has been stellar since his activation from the IL. The Jays counter with Jose Berrios (3.74 ERA) in this pick’em matchup.

Check out my Blue Jays best bets vs. the Rangers for Aug. 17, featuring Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Blue Jays best bets vs. Rangers

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Best bet: Guerrero over 1.5 bases (+125)

Eovaldi finally looked human last Monday when the Arizona Diamondbacks tagged him for eight hits and five runs in 5.0 IP.

Before that, the righty posted a 0.47 ERA in his previous six starts.

I think Guerrero will do damage on Sunday, given his current form and history against Eovaldi.

• Guerrero since ASG: .368 BA, 1.112 OPS, more XBH (19) than Ks (15)
• Guerrero vs. Eovaldi: 10-for-24 (.417 BA), two doubles, one HR

Vladdy has been walking at a sky-high clip since the Midsummer Classic, which is never a good thing for a total bases prop.

But Eovaldi is one of the best pitchers in baseball at limiting free passes — his 4.7% walk rate ranks in the 95th percentile, per Baseball Savant — meaning Guerrero should get something to hit.

And lately, we’ve seen fireworks when the $500-million man puts bat to ball.

Key stat: Guerrero is 5-1 against this line in his last six games.

Quick picks

Eovaldi under 4.5 Ks (-120): At Eovaldi’s best, he’s an innings-eating workhorse with high strikeout upside. We’ve seen that ceiling a few times since he returned from the IL on June 27:

• July 8 vs. Angels: 6.0 IP, 6 Ks
• July 13 vs. Astros: 7.1 IP, 8 Ks
• Aug. 5 vs. Yankees: 8.0 IP, 6 Ks

But overall, Eovaldi is averaging 5.13 Ks over eight starts since returning, which is just a smidge over this line. Given that Toronto is the hardest team to retire on strikes in the majors, I feel very comfortable taking this under.

The Jays have the lowest K rate this season (17.4%) and over the last 30 days (16.2%).

Eovaldi has also gotten rocked by Toronto’s current lineup, giving up a .368 batting average over 144 combined plate appearances.

He only has an 18.1% K rate in those ABs, and is 0-3 against this line in his last starts against the Jays.

Over 8 runs (+100): I expect Toronto to get after Eovaldi, and don’t trust Berrios one bit to keep the scoring to a minimum.

Toronto’s righty has a 3.74 ERA. Pretty respectable on paper, right?

But his underlying numbers are far more concerning: 4.67 xBA (21st percentile), .259 xBA (31st percentile), 11.1% barrel rate (10th percentile).

Since the start of July, Berrios has allowed 56 baserunners in 40.0 IP. That 1.40 WHIP would rank 55th out of 58 qualified starting pitchers on a season-long basis.

In those eight starts since July 1, the over on this total is 6-1-1.

Blue Jays best bets made at 8:40 a.m. ET on 08/16/2025.