Avery Perri

The Toronto Blue Jays look to sweep the Texas Rangers at Rogers Centre on Sunday.

The pregame narrative: Toronto’s offence erupted for 14 runs yesterday, and now faces Nathan Eovaldi (1.71 ERA), who has been stellar since his activation from the IL. The Jays counter with Jose Berrios (3.74 ERA) in this pick’em matchup.

Check out my Blue Jays best bets vs. the Rangers for Aug. 17, featuring Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Blue Jays best bets vs. Rangers

Best bet: Guerrero over 1.5 bases (+105)

Eovaldi finally looked human last Monday when the Arizona Diamondbacks tagged him for eight hits and five runs in 5.0 IP.

Before that, the righty posted a 0.47 ERA in his previous six starts.

I think Guerrero will do damage on Sunday, given his current form and history against Eovaldi.

• Guerrero since ASG: .368 BA, 1.112 OPS, more XBH (19) than Ks (15)
• Guerrero vs. Eovaldi: 10-for-24 (.417 BA), two doubles, one HR

Vladdy has been walking at a sky-high clip since the Midsummer Classic, which is never a good thing for a total bases prop.

But Eovaldi is one of the best pitchers in baseball at limiting free passes — his 4.7% walk rate ranks in the 95th percentile, per Baseball Savant — meaning Guerrero should get something to hit.

And lately, we’ve seen fireworks when the $500-million man puts bat to ball.

Key stat: Guerrero is 5-1 against this line in his last six games.

• Full MLB betting markets
• MLB injury report
• MLB stats & standings

Quick picks

Eovaldi under 4.5 Ks (-121): At Eovaldi’s best, he’s an innings-eating workhorse with high strikeout upside. We’ve seen that ceiling a few times since he returned from the IL on June 27:

• July 8 vs. Angels: 6.0 IP, 6 Ks
• July 13 vs. Astros: 7.1 IP, 8 Ks
• Aug. 5 vs. Yankees: 8.0 IP, 6 Ks

But overall, Eovaldi is averaging 5.13 Ks over eight starts since returning, which is just a smidge over this line. Given that Toronto is the hardest team to retire on strikes in the majors, I feel very comfortable taking this under.

The Jays have the lowest K rate this season (17.4%) and over the last 30 days (16.2%).

Eovaldi has also gotten rocked by Toronto’s current lineup, giving up a .368 batting average over 144 combined plate appearances.

He only has an 18.1% K rate in those ABs, and is 0-3 against this line in his last starts against the Jays.

Over 8 runs (-112): I expect Toronto to get after Eovaldi, and don’t trust Berrios one bit to keep the scoring to a minimum.

Toronto’s righty has a 3.74 ERA. Pretty respectable on paper, right?

But his underlying numbers are far more concerning: 4.67 xBA (21st percentile), .259 xBA (31st percentile), 11.1% barrel rate (10th percentile).

Since the start of July, Berrios has allowed 56 baserunners in 40.0 IP. That 1.40 WHIP would rank 55th out of 58 qualified starting pitchers on a season-long basis.

In those eight starts since July 1, the over on this total is 6-1-1.

Blue Jays best bets made at 9:10 a.m. ET on 08/16/2025.

Two hard-hitting right fielders make up Saturday’s MLB home run picks.

Today’s MLB HR narrative: Juan Soto and Brent Rooker both sit inside the top-25 on MLB’s home run leaderboard, and there’s good reason to believe they can add to their totals tonight. Soto goes up against the homer-prone Bryan Woo, while Rooker has a platoon advantage at home.

Check out the best MLB home run picks and analysis for Aug. 16.

MLB home run picks

Best bet: Soto to hit a home run (+300)

The problem with backing Soto on a home run or total bases prop is that he walks a lot.

Soto’s 17.6% BB rate is the highest in MLB, which takes away plate appearances and an opportunity to belt one over the fence.

But when Soto’s discerning eye finds a pitch he likes, the result is usually going to be pretty. I mean, just look at these absurd batted ball metrics, courtesy of Baseball Savant:

And we’ve seen a lot of that lately. He has five home runs in his last eight games and is up to 30 on the season, which ranks seventh in MLB entering play on Aug. 16.

Today, Soto battles righty Bryan Woo of the Seattle Mariners, and he might be the perfect opponent for this wager.

Woo has a stellar 0.95 WHIP, thanks to his 4.5% BB rate (96th percentile), but he gives up 1.4 HR/9, which ranks 43rd out of 58 qualified pitchers.

Soto has taken Woo deep before, and is slugging .555 vs. RHPs this year.

Key stat: Soto’s 16.06 at-bats-to-HR ratio ranks ninth among all active players.

• Full MLB betting markets
• MLB injury report
• MLB stats & standings

Best HR predictions

Rooker to hit a home run (+255): Rooker does serious damage against southpaws and at home, so tonight is shaping up to be a perfect storm for the slugger.

• vs. LHP: .330/.427/.590 slash line
• at home: .284/.370.493 slash line

Sutter Health Park, the Athletics’ temporary home venue, gives up 8% more home runs to righties than league average, according to Baseball Savant’s Park Factors.

But it gets even better. The wind is projected to blow out to left-centre at over 10 mph, which should help Rooker — and other righty bats — turn a wallscraper into a homer.

Tyler Anderson is on the bump for the Los Angeles Angels — Rooker has already taken him deep twice, with a .857 SLG in 14 at-bats.

MLB home run picks made at 12:49 p.m. ET on 08/16/2025.

Three hitters make up Saturday’s MLB prop bets.

Today’s MLB props narrative: Shea Langeliers has been raking since he was moved to the Athletics’ leadoff spot, and has solid value to stay hot. Elsewhere, I’m banking on Ketel Marte recording multiple hits at plus money at Coors Field.

Check out my favourite MLB prop bets for Aug. 16, featuring a prediction on Trevor Story.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Langeliers over 1.5 bases (-115)

It’s not often you see a catcher hit leadoff, but Langeliers and the Athletics have made it work over the past two weeks.

• .375 batting average
• .917 slugging percentage
• Five XBH, five Ks

Langeliers hasn’t walked yet as the leadoff man and sits in the 30th percentile for walk rate on the season. That’s not ideal for the A’s but is perfect for a total bases prop.

Tonight, the Athletics host the Los Angeles Angels and southpaw Tyler Anderson.

Anderson has a 6.31 ERA — and an even worse 7.94 FIP — across his last five starts and now has to throw in the ultra-hitter-friendly Sutter Health Park.

The Athletics’ temporary home venue is the second-best offensive environment this year behind Coors Field, per Baseball Savant’s park factors.

Key stat: Langeliers is slashing .378/.382/.649 against LHP this season.

• Full MLB betting markets
• MLB injury report
• MLB stats & standings

Best MLB picks

Marte over 1.5 hits (+155): I was debating backing Marte over 1.5 bases, but the -143 price was a bit too steep for my liking, especially given how Langeliers’ prop was priced.

So I’ll take a bigger swing at him to record multiple hits against a poor pitcher at altitude.

• Marte is batting .349 in his last 16 games with eight multi-hit outings (50.0% hit rate).

• Colorado’s pitcher, righty Chase Dollander, is ceding a .331 opponent BA at Coors Stadium this year.

• The switch-hitting Marte is batting .320 against RHP this year.

My only worry with this wager is Dollander’s sky-high walk rate, which could limit Marte’s opportunities at the plate. But this game has an 11.5 total, and the Diamondbacks could easily cruise to a blowout victory, meaning their star shortstop would get five-plus PAs.

Story over 1.5 bases (-112): Story has proven to be a streaky hitter, but right now he’s red hot, slashing .345/.415/.586 over his last 15 games.

In that span, he is 9-6 against this line. Last night, he went 2-for-4 with a walk-off single agianst the Miami Marlins.

Today, his Boston Red Sox go for the series win against Cal Quantrill.

Quantrill (5.09 ERA) has struggled this season, especially against RHHs like Story. He’s given up a .335/.376/.597 slash line to righty bats, good for a near-1.000 OPS.

And Story already has the southpaw’s number, going 5-for-14 against Quantrill with a double and a home run.

MLB prop picks made at 10:09 a.m. ET on 08/16/2025.

Thursday’s MLB nightcap between the Arizona Diamondbacks and Colorado Rockies has shootout potential.

The pregame narrative: Two struggling pitchers — Eduardo Rodriguez (ARI) and Bradley Blalock (COL) — are throwing at mile-high Coors Field. Offence should be a given, as tonight’s game boasts a monster 12.5 game total.

Check out my Diamondbacks vs. Rockies predictions, including props on Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Warming Bernabel.

Diamondbacks vs. Rockies predictions

Parlay: Over 9.5 runs | Gurriel over 0.5 RBI | Bernabel over 0.5 hits (+320)

Over 9.5 runs (-315): I was debating teasing this total up to 14.5 runs and taking the under, simply given the number, but was worried it wouldn’t hit.

After all, six straight Rockies home games have gone over 12.5 runs, with an average of 18.5 runs scored in those contests – no, that’s not a typo.

So I feel like this total should be a breeze, given the pitchers on the mound.

Rodriguez has a 5.68 ERA this year. He just gave up five earned runs to the Rockies in Arizona five days ago in a game which finished over this total.

Blalock, meanwhile, has an 11.76 ERA in four home starts, while surrendering a .387 opponent batting average.

• Full MLB betting markets
• MLB injury report
• MLB stats & standings

MLB SGP legs

Gurriel over 0.5 RBI (-125): Gurriel is batting cleanup for the D-backs ahead of Geraldo Perdomo, Ketel Marte and Corbin Carroll.

Take a look at what those three have done in August:

• Perdomo: .378/.491/.600 slash line
• Marte: .364/.451/.636 slash line
• Carroll: .250/.321/.604 slash line

You don’t often see RBI props at minus odds, but it makes sense here.

Gurriell is hitless in his last three games, but should have every opportunity to get off the schneid, and can even cash this with a fielder’s choice or sack fly.

Bernabel over 1.5 bases (+105): Finally, I’m looking for an underrated rookie to hit for power.

Bernabel is slashing .294 with an .848 OPS in 17 games with the Rockies, and has raked in a small six-game sample at home.

• .346 batting average
• .615 slugging percentage
• Four XBH

The shortstop also makes a ton of contact, striking out in just 13.0% of at-bats while walking in 1.4% of at-bats.

Rodriguez has given up 24 earned runs and eight home runs in 31 IP since the start of July.

Diamondbacks vs. Rockies predictions made at 2:30 p.m. ET on 08/14/2025.

Looking to get started? Sign up here.

The red-hot Pete Alonso headlines Thursday’s MLB home run picks.

Today’s MLB HR narrative: Alonso has six home runs this month and now faces a struggling righty at home. That’s more than enough to grab my attention. Elsewhere, Ketel Marte has a great shot to hit his third straight home run.

Check out the best MLB home run picks and analysis for Aug. 14.

MLB home run picks

Best bet: Alonso to hit a home run (+290)

Alsono is firing on all cylinders in August, slashing .386/.408/.886 with six home runs in 11 games.

That’s a good place to start, and his matchup against Atlanta’s Bryce Elder makes this pick even more enticing.

• Alonso is slugging .556 against righties this year, with 20 of his 28 home runs coming against RHPs.

• Elder has a 6.12 ERA this season and ranks in the 40th percentile or worse for K rate, hard-hit rate, barrel rate and average exit velocity.

• Alsonso is 3-for-8 against Elder with a home run and a 1.162 xSLG.

The Braves’ righty leans heavily on a two-pitch mix, throwing a sinker 42% of the time and a slider 37% of the time.

Alsono is slugging .663 against sinkers and .554 against sliders from RHPs, according to Baseball Savant.

Key stat: Alonso’s 14.13 at-bats-to-HR ratio ranks fifth among all active players.

• Full MLB betting markets
• MLB injury report
• MLB stats & standings

Best HR predictions

Marte to hit a home run (+310): Like Alonso, Marte is wielding a white-hot bat in August, slashing .364/.451/.636 and is 6-for-9 in his last two games with a pair of home runs.

The switch-hitting second baseman can produce from both sides of the plate, but does his best job batting from the left against righties:

• .321 batting average
• .604 slugging percentage
• 17 of his 23 home runs

Now at mile-high altitude, against a righty with a 7.89 ERA, Marte should be able to blast one into the seats of Coors Stadium.

Bradley Blalock has given up three home runs in his last two games and got hit hard by the Diamondbacks in Arizona just five days ago: 4.2 IP, 7 H, 5 ER.

Marte went 2-for-3 with a double in that contest.

MLB home run picks made at 1:00 p.m. ET on 08/14/2025.