Avery Perri

Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.

Cincinnati Open men’s quarterfinal picks and predictions Aug. 14: Bets on Sinner vs. Auger-Aliassime, Atmane vs. Rune

Cincinnati Open predictions

The Cincinnati Open men’s quarterfinal kicks off on Thursday with a pair of matches.

The pregame narrative: The action begins at 3:00 p.m. ET when ATP World No. 1 Jannik Sinner battles Canadian Felix Auger-Aliassime. FAA is 2-0 against the Italian, but the last win was back in 2022, well before Sinner became the tour’s clear-cut top player.

Check out my top Cincinnati Open predictions, featuring a pick on Terence Atmane vs. Holger Rune.

Cincinnati Open predictions

Best bet: Sinner/Auger-Aliassime under 21.5 games (-130)

I’m not going to put much stock into Auger-Aliassime’s wins over Sinner from three years ago.

The Italian is a completely different player now and has been nearly unbeatable on outdoor hard courts over the past two seasons.

  • Sinner is perfect 10-0 this year on outdoor hard courts, capturing the Australian Open in January.
  • He’s only dropped two sets across those 10 matches, winning his last six matches in straight sets.
  • He posted a 41-3 record on the surface in 2024, winning this event before demolishing the competition at the US Open to win his then-second slam.

Auger-Aliassime has made light work of his opponents so far, winning two matches in straight sets with a walkover against Arthur Rinderknech in the round of 32.

But none of his opponents were seeded, and Sinner represents a massive leap in competition.

The Canadian has lost four of his last five matches against top-five players in straight sets. Two of those losses went under this total, and while the other two were in slams (best-of-five), he dropped the first two sets in under 20 games as well.

Key stat: Sinner is on a 47-match winning streak against players outside of the top 20 on hard courts.

Full tennis betting markets

Atmane vs. Rune best bet

Atmane +1.5 sets (-108): Atmane just logged the upset of the tournament so far on the men’s side, knocking out 4-seed Taylor Fritz 3-6, 7-5, 6-3.

He banged home 13 aces and won 82% of points on his first serve.

That came after beating 15-seed Flavio Cobolli in the round of 64 and a straight-set win over the hard-hitting teenager Joao Fonseca the round after that.

I think the Frenchman is a live dog to win this match, given his strong run of form and Rune’s suspect path to the quarterfinals.

Rune’s first two matches ended in straight sets, but he needed a tiebreaker in each contest before logging a walkover against a banged-up Frances Tiafoe.

The Dane also bowed out in his third match in Canada after losing in the first round at Wimbledon.

Cincinnati Open predictions made at 10:47 a.m. on 08/14/2025.

Cubs vs. Blue Jays best bets Aug. 14: Bet on Max Scherzer to deal in Thursday’s series finale

Blue Jays best bets

The Toronto Blue Jays and Chicago Cubs play out their rubber match at Rogers Centre on Thursday.

The pregame narrative: Fans in attendance for today’s matinee are treated to a pitcher’s duel between Max Scherzer and Matthew Boyd. Both arms are in a groove, and the odds reflect that. This matchup is a pick’em with an over/under of 8 runs.

Check out my Blue Jays best bets vs. the Cubs for Aug. 14, featuring Scherzer and Ernie Clement.

Blue Jays best bets vs. Cubs

Best bet: Scherzer over 17.5 outs (-130)

Scherzer is improving with each start and is making a case to be Toronto’s Game 1 starter in the postseason.

The 41-year-old has four quality starts — six-plus innings and three or fewer earned runs — in his last five appearances.

Most recently, he held the Los Angeles Dodgers to two runs over 6.0 innings while fanning five.

The start before that, he held the Kansas City Royals to one run. And before that, he threw 7.0 innings with 11 strikeouts against the Detroit Tigers.

Scherzer doesn’t seem to have a leash on him in terms of a pitch count, throwing into the upper 90s twice in his last three starts.

Chicago doesn’t strike out much, but has struggled to hit right-handers since the all-star break, ranking 25th out of 30 teams in the following categories:

  • Batting average (.231)
  • Slugging percentage (.379)
  • ISO (.147)
  • wRC+ (94)

Scherzer has an 85th percentile hard-hit rate and an 86th percentile walk rate. He should be able to generate a ton of soft contact against a sputtering lineup and keep his pitch count low.

Key stat: Scherzer is 4-1 against this line in his last five starts.

Jays vs. Cubs picks

Clement 1+ RBI (+200): Rotowire projects Clement to hit seventh for the Jays today, right behind Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette and Alejandro Kirk.

Everyone in that trio has an OBP north of .330 and a wRC+ above 100 vs. LHPs. Guerrero (148) and Bichette (131) are well above league average in terms of wRC+ against southpaws.

But none of them hold a candle to what Clement is doing.

  • Toronto’s utility man is slashing .345/.376/.583 against LHPs this season.
  • His 163 wRC+ vs. LHPs ranks 16th in MLB, while his 10.7% K rate is 22nd.

Boyd has a 2.45 ERA and 1.05 WHIP this year and four scoreless appearances in his last six starts.

Those are stellar numbers, but Toronto is one of the league’s best teams against lefties, and Clement should have several opportunities at the plate with runners aboard.

This price is too good to pass up.

Blue Jays best bets made at 9:55 a.m. ET on 08/14/2025.

Cubs vs. Blue Jays best bets Aug. 14: Bet on Max Scherzer to deal in Thursday’s series finale

Blue Jays best bets

The Toronto Blue Jays and Chicago Cubs play out their rubber match at Rogers Centre on Thursday.

The pregame narrative: Fans in attendance for today’s matinee are treated to a pitcher’s duel between Max Scherzer and Matthew Boyd. Both arms are in a groove, and the odds reflect that. This matchup is a pick’em with an over/under of 8 runs.

Check out my Blue Jays best bets vs. the Cubs for Aug. 14, featuring Scherzer and Ernie Clement.

Blue Jays best bets vs. Cubs

Best bet: Scherzer over 17.5 outs (-121)

Scherzer is improving with each start and is making a case to be Toronto’s Game 1 starter in the postseason.

The 41-year-old has four quality starts — six-plus innings and three or fewer earned runs — in his last five appearances.

Most recently, he held the Los Angeles Dodgers to two runs over 6.0 innings while fanning five.

The start before that, he held the Kansas City Royals to one run. And before that, he threw 7.0 innings with 11 strikeouts against the Detroit Tigers.

Scherzer doesn’t seem to have a leash on him in terms of a pitch count, throwing into the upper 90s twice in his last three starts.

Chicago doesn’t strike out much, but has struggled to hit right-handers since the all-star break, ranking 25th out of 30 teams in the following categories:

  • Batting average (.231)
  • Slugging percentage (.379)
  • ISO (.147)
  • wRC+ (94)

Scherzer has an 85th percentile hard-hit rate and an 86th percentile walk rate. He should be able to generate a ton of soft contact against a sputtering lineup and keep his pitch count low.

Key stat: Scherzer is 4-1 against this line in his last five starts.

Embed: #117139

Jays vs. Cubs picks

Clement 1+ RBI (+240): Rotowire projects Clement to hit seventh for the Jays today, right behind Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette and Alejandro Kirk.

Everyone in that trio has an OBP north of .330 and a wRC+ above 100 vs. LHPs. Guerrero (148) and Bichette (131) are well above league average in terms of wRC+ against southpaws.

But none of them hold a candle to what Clement is doing.

  • Toronto’s utility man is slashing .345/.376/.583 against LHPs this season.
  • His 163 wRC+ vs. LHPs ranks 16th in MLB, while his 10.7% K rate is 22nd.

Boyd has a 2.45 ERA and 1.05 WHIP this year and four scoreless appearances in his last six starts.

Those are stellar numbers, but Toronto is one of the league’s best teams against lefties, and Clement should have several opportunities at the plate with runners aboard.

This price is too good to pass up.

Blue Jays best bets made at 9:55 a.m. ET on 08/14/2025.

PSG vs. Tottenham UEFA Super Cup odds and best bet: Back Paris to shut out Spurs

PSG vs. Tottenham odds

PSG and Tottenham collide in the UEFA Super Cup, as the Parisians search for a fourth title in 2025.

The pre-match narrative: PSG aims to rebound from a shocking 3-0 loss to Chelsea in the FIFA Club World Cup final, and is a heavy favourite to win this match of European champions. Tottenham, with a new manager and some injury trouble, should struggle to crack the Parisians’ back line.

Check out our PSG vs. Tottenham odds and my best bet for the Aug. 13 match.

PSG vs. Tottenham odds

Click linked odds to add selection to betslip. Note: Lines have changed/market no longer available if grey.

PSG vs. Tottenham marketsBetting odds
PSG to win-205
Draw+410
Tottenham to win+525
PSG to lift the trophy-400
Tottenham to lift the trophy+300
Over 3.5 goals-132
Under 3.5 goals-106

PSG vs. Tottenham odds as of 3:40 p.m. on 08/12/2025.

Best UEFA Super Cup pick

Best bet: Tottenham under 0.5 goals (+160)

These European champions are not built the same.

PSG won the Champions League, embarrassing Inter Milan in the final to secure their first title.

Luis Enrique’s side then cruised to the FIFA Club World Cup final, conceding just one goal in six matches before eventually losing to Chelsea.

Full UEFA Super Cup betting markets

Here’s a short list of some of PSG’s most impressive fixtures during this run:

  • 4-0 win vs. Real Madrid
  • 2-0 win vs. Bayern Munich
  • 4-0 win vs. Atletico Madrid
  • 5-0 win vs. Inter Milan
  • 1-0 win vs. Arsenal

Tottenham isn’t on the level of any of those teams, and finished 17th in the Premier League table last season, just one spot out of relegation.

It managed to win the Europa League by beating Manchester United (which finished 15th in the EPL), 1-0, in the final.

Thomas Frank takes over a Tottenham group which will be without several key offensive players.

James Maddison tore his ACL in a preseason friendly, while Dejan Kulusevski, Radu Dragusin and Dominic Solanke are also on the shelf.

PSG conceded just 0.9 goals per match in the Champions League last season, the third-lowest among all teams.

With few injury problems and a strong starting XI, Enrique’s side should utilize its aggressive press tactics to overwhelm Tottenham’s depleted midfield and dominate possession.

Key stat: PSG has seven clean sheets in their last nine matches.

PSG vs. Tottenham best bet made at 3:40 p.m. on 08/12/2025.

Cincinnati Open tennis picks and predictions Aug. 13: Bets on Sinner vs. Mannarino, Auger-Aliassime vs. Bonzi in round of 16

Cincinnati Open predictions

The Cincinnati Open round of 16 begins on Wednesday, with ATP No. 1 Jannik Sinner headlining the action.

The pregame narrative: Sinner has been unstoppable since the start of Wimbledon, and is a massive favourite over unseeded Adrian Mannarino. Barring an injury, the Italian will almost certainly win this match. The bigger question is how quickly he can get it done.

Check out my top Cincinnati Open predictions for Aug. 13, also featuring a pick on Felix Auger-Aliassime vs. Benjamin Bonzi.

Cincinnati Open predictions

Best bet: Sinner/Mannarino under 18.5 games (-112)

Sinner is the best player in the world right now, and it’s not that close.

The reigning US Open, Australian Open and Wimbledon champion would be holding all four slams simultaneously had he not blown a two-set lead to Carlos Alcaraz at Rolland Garros.

I can forgive him for losing to the Spaniard — and clear-cut World No. 2 — on his native surface.

Mannarino has a pair of seeded victories over Tommy Paul and Tomas Machac to his name at this event. That’s nice, but I expect Sinner to pick him apart on Wednesday.

The 37-year-old Mannarino had to get through qualifiers to reach the main draw, meaning he’s played five matches in the past week, totalling over seven hours of court time.

Sinner, by contrast, has played two matches which lasted a total of 2 hours and 52 minutes.

Mannarino has a deadly kick serve as a lefty, which would pose problems for many players. But Sinner’s athleticism and reach are second to none, and he should be able to break his opponent’s serve frequently.

Key stat: Mannarino has lost 13 straight sets to ATP top-10 ranked players, most recently getting swept 6-2, 6-3 by Ben Shelton in the National Bank Open.

Full tennis betting markets

Auger-Aliassime vs. Bonzi best bet

Bonzi +3 games (-112): Bonzi is having a great start to this tournament, ousting No. 8 seed Lorenzo Musetti and No. 25 seed Stefanos Tsitsipas.

He’s now 4-1 in his last five matches against ATP top-50-ranked players, with additional wins over Matteo Arnaldi and Daniil Medvedev.

Bonzi also was playing World No. 4 Taylor Fritz tough in April at the Madrid Masters, but was forced to retire ahead of a deciding third set due to injury.

So you can see why I’m keen on backing the Frenchman as an underdog against a sputtering Auger-Aliassime.

FAA has lost three of his last six matches, and has historically been a poor outdoor hardcourt player (58.93 win percentage).

Cincinnati Open predictions made at 1:03 p.m. on 08/12/2025.

Cincinnati Open tennis picks and predictions Aug. 13: Bets on Sinner vs. Mannarino, Auger-Aliassime vs. Bonzi in round of 16

Cincinnati Open predictions

The Cincinnati Open round of 16 begins on Wednesday, with ATP No. 1 Jannik Sinner headlining the action.

The pregame narrative: Sinner has been unstoppable since the start of Wimbledon, and is a massive favourite over unseeded Adrian Mannarino. Barring an injury, the Italian will almost certainly win this match. The bigger question is how quickly he can get it done.

Check out my top Cincinnati Open predictions for Aug. 13, also featuring a pick on Felix Auger-Aliassime vs. Benjamin Bonzi.

Cincinnati Open predictions

Best bet: Sinner/Mannarino under 18.5 games (-103)

Sinner is the best player in the world right now, and it’s not that close.

The reigning US Open, Australian Open and Wimbledon champion would be holding all four slams simultaneously had he not blown a two-set lead to Carlos Alcaraz at Rolland Garros.

I can forgive him for losing to the Spaniard — and clear-cut World No. 2 — on his native surface.

Mannarino has a pair of seeded victories over Tommy Paul and Tomas Machac to his name at this event. That’s nice, but I expect Sinner to pick him apart on Wednesday.

The 37-year-old Mannarino had to get through qualifiers to reach the main draw, meaning he’s played five matches in the past week, totalling over seven hours of court time.

Sinner, by contrast, has played two matches which lasted a total of 2 hours and 52 minutes.

Mannarino has a deadly kick serve as a lefty, which would pose problems for many players. But Sinner’s athleticism and reach are second to none, and he should be able to break his opponent’s serve frequently.

Key stat: Mannarino has lost 13 straight sets to ATP top-10 ranked players, most recently getting swept 6-2, 6-3 by Ben Shelton in the National Bank Open.

Full tennis betting markets

Auger-Aliassime vs. Bonzi best bet

Bonzi +2.5 games (+107): Bonzi is having a great start to this tournament, ousting No. 8 seed Lorenzo Musetti and No. 25 seed Stefanos Tsitsipas.

He’s now 4-1 in his last five matches against ATP top-50-ranked players, with additional wins over Matteo Arnaldi and Daniil Medvedev.

Bonzi also was playing World No. 4 Taylor Fritz tough in April at the Madrid Masters, but was forced to retire ahead of a deciding third set due to injury.

So you can see why I’m keen on backing the Frenchman as an underdog against a sputtering Auger-Aliassime.

FAA has lost three of his last six matches, and has historically been a poor outdoor hardcourt player (58.93 win percentage).

Cincinnati Open predictions made at 1:03 p.m. on 08/12/2025.

MLB home run picks Aug. 12: Bet on Athletics rookie Nick Kurtz to go deep vs. Rays

MLB home run picks

Athletics rookie sensation Nick Kurtz headlines Tuesday’s MLB home run picks.

Today’s MLB HR narrative: Kurtz hasn’t gone deep since his four-homer game last month, but has a great matchup against Tampa Bay Rays starter Shane Baz. Elsewhere, I’m looking for Josh Naylor to do damage at Camden Yards.

Check out the best MLB home run picks and analysis for Aug. 12.

MLB home run picks

Best bet: Kurtz to hit a home run (+265)

Kurtz is barreling toward AL Rookie of the Year honours, despite his recent power outage.

In the 14 games since hitting four home runs against the Houston Astros, Kurtz is slugging just .340. But he has a .300 batting average in that same span, and there’s plenty working in his favour tonight:

  • Sutter Health Park, the Athletics’ temporary home venue in Sacramento, allows 14% more home runs to LHHs than league average, according to Baseball Savant’s Park factors.
  • Kurtz is slashing .350/.437/.723 vs. RHPs this year, and 19 of his 23 HRs have come against righties.
  • Baz is one of the most homer-prone arms in MLB. His 1.5 HR/9 rate ranks 50th among 60 qualified pitchers.

Tampa’s righty has gotten touched up lately, owning an unsightly 6.27 ERA since the beginning of July with seven home runs in as many starts.

Baz held Kurtz hitless when he threw against the Athletics on July 1, but I’m optimistic the rookie will build on those at-bats and find a way to punish the righty this time around.

Key stat: Kurtz’s 213 wRC+ vs. RHPs is the best in MLB.

Best HR predictions

Naylor to hit a home run (+375): Naylor is getting into quite the groove with his new ballclub, slashing .346/.433/.808 with three home runs in August.

The Seattle Mariners wanted a lefty power bat, and the Canadian is delivering.

Tonight, Naylor gets to play in one of MLB’s most hitter-friendly venues for lefty bats.

Camden Yards is allowing 28% more home runs to LHHs than average over the last three years. That’s tied for first with Great American Ball Park.

Baltimore’s Dean Kremer doesn’t walk many batters and has a low K rate, which gives me confidence that the ball will be put in play.

And Naylor has done that a lot against the right-handed Kremer, going 6-for-9 with a home run.

MLB home run picks made at 10:56 a.m. ET on 08/12/2025.

MLB home run picks Aug. 12: Bet on Athletics rookie Nick Kurtz to go deep vs. Rays

MLB home run picks

Athletics rookie sensation Nick Kurtz headlines Tuesday’s MLB home run picks.

Today’s MLB HR narrative: Kurtz hasn’t gone deep since his four-homer game last month, but has a great matchup against Tampa Bay Rays starter Shane Baz. Elsewhere, I’m looking for Josh Naylor to do damage at Camden Yards.

Check out the best MLB home run picks and analysis for Aug. 12.

MLB home run picks

Best bet: Kurtz to hit a home run (+350)

Kurtz is barreling toward AL Rookie of the Year honours, despite his recent power outage.

In the 14 games since hitting four home runs against the Houston Astros, Kurtz is slugging just .340. But he has a .300 batting average in that same span, and there’s plenty working in his favour tonight:

  • Sutter Health Park, the Athletics’ temporary home venue in Sacramento, allows 14% more home runs to LHHs than league average, according to Baseball Savant’s Park factors.
  • Kurtz is slashing .350/.437/.723 vs. RHPs this year, and 19 of his 23 HRs have come against righties.
  • Baz is one of the most homer-prone arms in MLB. His 1.5 HR/9 rate ranks 50th among 60 qualified pitchers.

Tampa’s righty has gotten touched up lately, owning an unsightly 6.27 ERA since the beginning of July with seven home runs in as many starts.

Baz held Kurtz hitless when he threw against the Athletics on July 1, but I’m optimistic the rookie will build on those at-bats and find a way to punish the righty this time around.

Key stat: Kurtz’s 213 wRC+ vs. RHPs is the best in MLB.

Best HR predictions

Naylor to hit a home run (+410): Naylor is getting into quite the groove with his new ballclub, slashing .346/.433/.808 with three home runs in August.

The Seattle Mariners wanted a lefty power bat, and the Canadian is delivering.

Tonight, Naylor gets to play in one of MLB’s most hitter-friendly venues for lefty bats.

Camden Yards is allowing 28% more home runs to LHHs than average over the last three years. That’s tied for first with Great American Ball Park.

Baltimore’s Dean Kremer doesn’t walk many batters and has a low K rate, which gives me confidence that the ball will be put in play.

And Naylor has done that a lot against the right-handed Kremer, going 6-for-9 with a home run.

MLB home run picks made at 10:56 a.m. ET on 08/12/2025.

Cubs vs. Blue Jays best bets Aug. 12: Back Bichette, Tucker in high-scoring series opener

Blue Jays best bets

The Toronto Blue Jays and Chicago Cubs open up a three-game set at Rogers Centre on Tuesday.

The pregame narrative: Toronto and Chicago lead their respective divisions largely thanks to owning elite offences. Tonight’s matchup should feature more fireworks with a pair of volatile arms — Jose Berrios (TOR) and Ben Brown (CHI) — on the mound.

Check out my Blue Jays best bets vs. the Cubs for Aug. 12, featuring prop bets on Bo Bichette and Kyle Tucker.

Blue Jays best bets vs. Cubs

Best bet: Bichette over 1.5 bases (-106)

There’s a lot to like about this wager.

  • Bichette has been rolling since the all-star break, slashing .356/.393/.574 through 23 games.
  • In that span, he is 14-9 against this line with more extra-base hits (14) than strikeouts (11).
  • Bichette has a 4% walk rate since the ASG, and Brown ranks in the 76th percentile for walk rate (6.6%) on the season. That bodes well for a bases prop.

Brown is a 6-foot-6 righty with a two-pitch mix. He throws a four-seam fastball 57% of the time and a curveball 38% of the time — Bichette has had success against those offerings from RHPs:

  • Vs. 4-seam fastballs: .273 BA (.290 xBA), .409 SLG (.462 xSLG)
  • Vs. curveballs: .444 BA (.402 xBA), .556 SLG (.673 xSLG)

The Cubs starter has a high K rate, but struggles to limit hard contact (eighth percentile barrel rate, 11th percentile hard-hit rate), which has led to a bloated 6.04 ERA.

I love Bichette’s chances of taking him for a ride tonight.

Key stat: Bichette is averaging 2.2 total bases at home since the all-star break.

Jays vs. Cubs picks

Tucker to score (-108): Rotowire projects Tucker will bat second for Chicago on the road, which is a nice spot for run production.

The first-year Cub is in a bit of a rut right now, scoring just two runs in August. But he logged 14 runs in July with a .380 on-base percentage, and has stellar splits against RHPs this year.

  • .272 BA
  • .391 OBP
  • .478 SLG

Berrios has a 5.71 ERA in his last seven starts and ranks in the bottom third percentile for xERA, xBA, whiff rate and barrel rate.

Tucker is 5-for-15 against Berrios with a walk and a HBP. He also has a .652 xSLG in those at-bats, so I wouldn’t be surprised if he scores himself with the long ball.

Over 9 runs (-110): Toronto leads MLB in batting average (.313), slugging percentage (.520) and wRC+ (149) since the all-star break.

The problem? It has a 4.77 ERA, which sits 25th.

Unsurprisingly, the Jays have been good to clear the game total in that stretch, with overs going 15-6-2.

Even if you exclude a three-game series against the Colorado Rockies when Toronto averaged 15 runs per game — clearing this total on its own each time — the Jays are 5-3-2 against this number in their last 10.

Brown and Berrios haven’t been at their best lately, and Chicago ranks second in runs per game this season. All signs point to a barn burner.

Blue Jays best bets made at 9:33 a.m. ET on 08/12/2025.

Cubs vs. Blue Jays best bets Aug. 12: Back Bichette, Tucker in high-scoring series opener

Blue Jays best bets

The Toronto Blue Jays and Chicago Cubs open up a three-game set at Rogers Centre on Tuesday.

The pregame narrative: Toronto and Chicago lead their respective divisions largely thanks to owning elite offences. Tonight’s matchup should feature more fireworks with a pair of volatile arms — Jose Berrios (TOR) and Ben Brown (CHI) — on the mound.

Check out my Blue Jays best bets vs. the Cubs for Aug. 12, featuring prop bets on Bo Bichette and Kyle Tucker.

Blue Jays best bets vs. Cubs

Best bet: Bichette over 1.5 bases (+102)

There’s a lot to like about this wager.

  • Bichette has been rolling since the all-star break, slashing .356/.393/.574 through 23 games.
  • In that span, he is 14-9 against this line with more extra-base hits (14) than strikeouts (11).
  • Bichette has a 4% walk rate since the ASG, and Brown ranks in the 76th percentile for walk rate (6.6%) on the season. That bodes well for a bases prop.

Brown is a 6-foot-6 righty with a two-pitch mix. He throws a four-seam fastball 57% of the time and a curveball 38% of the time — Bichette has had success against those offerings from RHPs:

  • Vs. 4-seam fastballs: .273 BA (.290 xBA), .409 SLG (.462 xSLG)
  • Vs. curveballs: .444 BA (.402 xBA), .556 SLG (.673 xSLG)

The Cubs starter has a high K rate, but struggles to limit hard contact (eighth percentile barrel rate, 11th percentile hard-hit rate), which has led to a bloated 6.04 ERA.

I love Bichette’s chances of taking him for a ride tonight.

Key stat: Bichette is averaging 2.2 total bases at home since the all-star break.

Jays vs. Cubs picks

Tucker to score (+104): Rotowire projects Tucker will bat second for Chicago on the road, which is a nice spot for run production.

The first-year Cub is in a bit of a rut right now, scoring just two runs in August. But he logged 14 runs in July with a .380 on-base percentage, and has stellar splits against RHPs this year.

  • .272 BA
  • .391 OBP
  • .478 SLG

Berrios has a 5.71 ERA in his last seven starts and ranks in the bottom third percentile for xERA, xBA, whiff rate and barrel rate.

Tucker is 5-for-15 against Berrios with a walk and a HBP. He also has a .652 xSLG in those at-bats, so I wouldn’t be surprised if he scores himself with the long ball.

Over 9 runs (-113): Toronto leads MLB in batting average (.313), slugging percentage (.520) and wRC+ (149) since the all-star break.

The problem? It has a 4.77 ERA, which sits 25th.

Unsurprisingly, the Jays have been good to clear the game total in that stretch, with overs going 15-6-2.

Even if you exclude a three-game series against the Colorado Rockies when Toronto averaged 15 runs per game — clearing this total on its own each time — the Jays are 5-3-2 against this number in their last 10.

Brown and Berrios haven’t been at their best lately, and Chicago ranks second in runs per game this season. All signs point to a barn burner.

Blue Jays best bets made at 9:33 a.m. ET on 08/12/2025.