Athletics rookie sensation Nick Kurtz headlines Tuesday’s MLB home run picks.
Today’s MLB HR narrative: Kurtz hasn’t gone deep since his four-homer game last month, but has a great matchup against Tampa Bay Rays starter Shane Baz. Elsewhere, I’m looking for Josh Naylor to do damage at Camden Yards.
Check out the best MLB home run picks and analysis for Aug. 12.
MLB home run picks
Best bet: Kurtz to hit a home run (+350)
Kurtz is barreling toward AL Rookie of the Year honours, despite his recent power outage.
In the 14 games since hitting four home runs against the Houston Astros, Kurtz is slugging just .340. But he has a .300 batting average in that same span, and there’s plenty working in his favour tonight:
- Sutter Health Park, the Athletics’ temporary home venue in Sacramento, allows 14% more home runs to LHHs than league average, according to Baseball Savant’s Park factors.
- Kurtz is slashing .350/.437/.723 vs. RHPs this year, and 19 of his 23 HRs have come against righties.
- Baz is one of the most homer-prone arms in MLB. His 1.5 HR/9 rate ranks 50th among 60 qualified pitchers.
Tampa’s righty has gotten touched up lately, owning an unsightly 6.27 ERA since the beginning of July with seven home runs in as many starts.
Baz held Kurtz hitless when he threw against the Athletics on July 1, but I’m optimistic the rookie will build on those at-bats and find a way to punish the righty this time around.
Key stat: Kurtz’s 213 wRC+ vs. RHPs is the best in MLB.
Best HR predictions
Naylor to hit a home run (+410): Naylor is getting into quite the groove with his new ballclub, slashing .346/.433/.808 with three home runs in August.
The Seattle Mariners wanted a lefty power bat, and the Canadian is delivering.
Tonight, Naylor gets to play in one of MLB’s most hitter-friendly venues for lefty bats.
Camden Yards is allowing 28% more home runs to LHHs than average over the last three years. That’s tied for first with Great American Ball Park.
Baltimore’s Dean Kremer doesn’t walk many batters and has a low K rate, which gives me confidence that the ball will be put in play.
And Naylor has done that a lot against the right-handed Kremer, going 6-for-9 with a home run.
MLB home run picks made at 10:56 a.m. ET on 08/12/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.