The Cincinnati Open men’s quarterfinal kicks off on Thursday with a pair of matches.
The pregame narrative: The action begins at 3:00 p.m. ET when ATP World No. 1 Jannik Sinner battles Canadian Felix Auger-Aliassime. FAA is 2-0 against the Italian, but the last win was back in 2022, well before Sinner became the tour’s clear-cut top player.
Check out my top Cincinnati Open predictions, featuring a pick on Terence Atmane vs. Holger Rune.
Cincinnati Open predictions
Best bet: Sinner/Auger-Aliassime under 21.5 games (-130)
I’m not going to put much stock into Auger-Aliassime’s wins over Sinner from three years ago.
The Italian is a completely different player now and has been nearly unbeatable on outdoor hard courts over the past two seasons.
- Sinner is perfect 10-0 this year on outdoor hard courts, capturing the Australian Open in January.
- He’s only dropped two sets across those 10 matches, winning his last six matches in straight sets.
- He posted a 41-3 record on the surface in 2024, winning this event before demolishing the competition at the US Open to win his then-second slam.
Auger-Aliassime has made light work of his opponents so far, winning two matches in straight sets with a walkover against Arthur Rinderknech in the round of 32.
But none of his opponents were seeded, and Sinner represents a massive leap in competition.
The Canadian has lost four of his last five matches against top-five players in straight sets. Two of those losses went under this total, and while the other two were in slams (best-of-five), he dropped the first two sets in under 20 games as well.
Key stat: Sinner is on a 47-match winning streak against players outside of the top 20 on hard courts.
Atmane vs. Rune best bet
Atmane +1.5 sets (-108): Atmane just logged the upset of the tournament so far on the men’s side, knocking out 4-seed Taylor Fritz 3-6, 7-5, 6-3.
He banged home 13 aces and won 82% of points on his first serve.
That came after beating 15-seed Flavio Cobolli in the round of 64 and a straight-set win over the hard-hitting teenager Joao Fonseca the round after that.
I think the Frenchman is a live dog to win this match, given his strong run of form and Rune’s suspect path to the quarterfinals.
Rune’s first two matches ended in straight sets, but he needed a tiebreaker in each contest before logging a walkover against a banged-up Frances Tiafoe.
The Dane also bowed out in his third match in Canada after losing in the first round at Wimbledon.
Cincinnati Open predictions made at 10:47 a.m. on 08/14/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.