Two hard-hitting right fielders make up Saturday’s MLB home run picks.
Today’s MLB HR narrative: Juan Soto and Brent Rooker both sit inside the top-25 on MLB’s home run leaderboard, and there’s good reason to believe they can add to their totals tonight. Soto goes up against the homer-prone Bryan Woo, while Rooker has a platoon advantage at home.
Check out the best MLB home run picks and analysis for Aug. 16.
MLB home run picks
Best bet: Soto to hit a home run (+285)
The problem with backing Soto on a home run or total bases prop is that he walks a lot.
Soto’s 17.6% BB rate is the highest in MLB, which takes away plate appearances and an opportunity to belt one over the fence.
But when Soto’s discerning eye finds a pitch he likes, the result is usually going to be pretty. I mean, just look at these absurd batted ball metrics, courtesy of Baseball Savant:
And we’ve seen a lot of that lately. He has five home runs in his last eight games and is up to 30 on the season, which ranks seventh in MLB entering play on Aug. 16.
Today, Soto battles righty Bryan Woo of the Seattle Mariners, and he might be the perfect opponent for this wager.
Woo has a stellar 0.95 WHIP, thanks to his 4.5% BB rate (96th percentile), but he gives up 1.4 HR/9, which ranks 43rd out of 58 qualified pitchers.
Soto has taken Woo deep before, and is slugging .555 vs. RHPs this year.
Key stat: Soto’s 16.06 at-bats-to-HR ratio ranks ninth among all active players.
Best HR predictions
Rooker to hit a home run (+240): Rooker does serious damage against southpaws and at home, so tonight is shaping up to be a perfect storm for the slugger.
- vs. LHP: .330/.427/.590 slash line
- at home: .284/.370.493 slash line
Sutter Health Park, the Athletics’ temporary home venue, gives up 8% more home runs to righties than league average, according to Baseball Savant’s Park Factors.
But it gets even better. The wind is projected to blow out to left-centre at over 10 mph, which should help Rooker — and other righty bats — turn a wallscraper into a homer.
Tyler Anderson is on the bump for the Los Angeles Angels — Rooker has already taken him deep twice, with a .857 SLG in 14 at-bats.
MLB home run picks made at 12:49 p.m. ET on 08/16/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.