The Toronto Blue Jays look to sweep the Texas Rangers at Rogers Centre on Sunday.
The pregame narrative: Toronto’s offence erupted for 14 runs yesterday, and now faces Nathan Eovaldi (1.71 ERA), who has been stellar since his activation from the IL. The Jays counter with Jose Berrios (3.74 ERA) in this pick’em matchup.
Check out my Blue Jays best bets vs. the Rangers for Aug. 17, featuring Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Blue Jays best bets vs. Rangers
Best bet: Guerrero over 1.5 bases (+105)
Eovaldi finally looked human last Monday when the Arizona Diamondbacks tagged him for eight hits and five runs in 5.0 IP.
Before that, the righty posted a 0.47 ERA in his previous six starts.
I think Guerrero will do damage on Sunday, given his current form and history against Eovaldi.
- Guerrero since ASG: .368 BA, 1.112 OPS, more XBH (19) than Ks (15)
- Guerrero vs. Eovaldi: 10-for-24 (.417 BA), two doubles, one HR
Vladdy has been walking at a sky-high clip since the Midsummer Classic, which is never a good thing for a total bases prop.
But Eovaldi is one of the best pitchers in baseball at limiting free passes — his 4.7% walk rate ranks in the 95th percentile, per Baseball Savant — meaning Guerrero should get something to hit.
And lately, we’ve seen fireworks when the $500-million man puts bat to ball.
Key stat: Guerrero is 5-1 against this line in his last six games.
Quick picks
Eovaldi under 4.5 Ks (-121): At Eovaldi’s best, he’s an innings-eating workhorse with high strikeout upside. We’ve seen that ceiling a few times since he returned from the IL on June 27:
- July 8 vs. Angels: 6.0 IP, 6 Ks
- July 13 vs. Astros: 7.1 IP, 8 Ks
- Aug. 5 vs. Yankees: 8.0 IP, 6 Ks
But overall, Eovaldi is averaging 5.13 Ks over eight starts since returning, which is just a smidge over this line. Given that Toronto is the hardest team to retire on strikes in the majors, I feel very comfortable taking this under.
The Jays have the lowest K rate this season (17.4%) and over the last 30 days (16.2%).
Eovaldi has also gotten rocked by Toronto’s current lineup, giving up a .368 batting average over 144 combined plate appearances.
He only has an 18.1% K rate in those ABs, and is 0-3 against this line in his last starts against the Jays.
Over 8 runs (-112): I expect Toronto to get after Eovaldi, and don’t trust Berrios one bit to keep the scoring to a minimum.
Toronto’s righty has a 3.74 ERA. Pretty respectable on paper, right?
But his underlying numbers are far more concerning: 4.67 xBA (21st percentile), .259 xBA (31st percentile), 11.1% barrel rate (10th percentile).
Since the start of July, Berrios has allowed 56 baserunners in 40.0 IP. That 1.40 WHIP would rank 55th out of 58 qualified starting pitchers on a season-long basis.
In those eight starts since July 1, the over on this total is 6-1-1.
Blue Jays best bets made at 9:10 a.m. ET on 08/16/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.