Iga Swiatek can add another trophy to her cabinet at the Cincinnati Open on Monday when she takes on Jasmine Paolini.
The pre-match narrative: Swiatek, the freshly minted Wimbledon champion, is a heavy favourite in today’s matchup. The Polish superstar is 5-0 against her Italian adversary and has yet to drop a set in Cincinnati.
Check out my top Swiatek vs. Paolini prediction and the odds for the Cincinnati Open women’s final on Aug. 18.
Swiatek vs. Paolini prediction
Best bet: Swiatek under 12.5 games won (-141)
This, in my opinion, is the safest way to back Swiatek to win convincingly.
- Dating back to the start of Wimbledon, the WTA World No. 3 is 13-1 with 12 straight-set victories.
- Swiatek only reached a tiebreak in three of those matches, meaning she is 9-5 against this line since the start of her run at the All England Club.
- She has covered a -5.5 game line in 10 of those matches, too, but failed to do so in each of her last three.
Paolini is a fine player, but has never been elite on hard courts, boasting a medicore 58.59% career win rate. Swiatek, conversely, has dominated with a 79.18% win rate, going 28-7 this year.
And the head-to-head matchups between these players are too lopsided to ignore.
Swiatek is a perfect 5-0, winning four of those matches in straight sets. She most recently demolished Paolini, 6-1, 6-3, in the Bad Homburg Open semifinal, breaking the Italian five times while winning 66% of the points.
Key stat: Swiatek is 4-1 against this line vs. Paolini.
Swiatek vs. Paolini prediction made at 9:53 a.m. on 08/18/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.