Breakout star Andrew Vaughn headlines Sunday’s MLB prop bets.
Today’s MLB props narrative: Vaughn has been raking since joining the Milwaukee Brewers at the trade deadline and is worth backing with a platoon advantage today. Elsewhere, Brent Rooker should stay hot in a familiar matchup.
Check out my favourite MLB prop bets for Aug. 17, featuring a play on Kansas City Royals pitcher Ryan Bergert.
MLB prop bets
Best bet: Vaughn over 1.5 bases (+100)
It’s amazing what a change of scenery can do for a player.
Vaughn, the 2019 third-overall pick, never got on with the Chicago White Sox. In his four full seasons with the club, he never had an OPS north of .750 and generated a -0.7 fWAR.
So it’s almost laughable to see what he’s doing now in a 30-game sample with the Brewers:
- .330/.395/.624 splits
- 181 wRC+
- 1.6 fWAR
Is that sustainable? Probably not. But right now, the outfielder is scorching hot, and I want in.
Vaughn has done most of his damage against lefties, slashing .455/.550/.667 in 41 plate appearances since joining the Brewers.
Andrew Abbott is on the mound for the opposing Cincinnati Reds, and the southpaw is having a great year (2.41 ERA, 1.11 WHIP).
But Vaughn has the benefit of a platoon advantage while playing in the hitter-friendly confines of Great American Ballpark, and that’s good enough for me.
Key stat: Vaughn’s 279 wRC+ vs. LHPs since the all-star break is third in MLB.
Best MLB picks
Bergert over 4.5 Ks (+115): If you’re not familiar with Bergert’s game, that’s fine. Just know the rookie has a 3.14 ERA as a starter this year and is going up against the black hole of an organization Vaughn just escaped, the White Sox.
Bergert just had his best game as a prop, fanning eight twins over 5.2 innings of two-run ball.
His putaway pitch is his slider, which generates a 31.1% whiff rate. The White Sox have a 37.0% whiff against sliders, which is the third-highest in MLB.
Chicago’s lineup can’t hit most pitches well, to be fair, and has the 11th-highest K rate in MLB.
Rooker over 1.5 bases (+105): I backed Rooker to go deep in yesterday’s MLB home run picks, and he came through with a towering shot in the fifth inning.
That was his 25th homer of the season and marked the fifth time in his last nine games he’s cleared this total.
He should have every opportunity to stay hot today against Jose Soriano and the Los Angeles Angels.
Rooker is 5-for-10 with a double and a home run against the hard-throwing righty with just one strikeout.
Soriano struggles to miss bats and has a fifth-percentile hard-hit rate, so I’m liking Rooker’s chances of sending one for extra bases if he makes contact.
MLB prop picks made at 10:23 a.m. ET on 08/17/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.