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Victoria Mboko US Open odds: Canadian phenom looks to build on National Bank Open victory

Canadian phenom Victoria Mboko heads to the U.S. Open in search of her first career grand slam title.

The pre-tournament narrative: Mboko shocked the tennis world with a win in her hometown of Montreal this month, beating a quartet of major winners en route to her first WTA title. The 18-year-old is tied for eighth on the odds board and enters with a career-best No. 24 ranking.

Check out our latest Victoria Mboko U.S. Open odds for the 2025 tennis major beginning on Aug. 24.

Victoria Mboko US Open odds

Mboko to win U.S. Open (+2,000)

Mboko flashed signs of greatness earlier this year, winning 22 straight matches without dropping a set en route to four ITF titles.

But I don’t think anyone expected her to dominate on the WTA Tour this quickly.

Full U.S. Open betting markets

The Canadian blitzed through the competition in the early goings in Montreal, winning four of her first five matches in straight sets. That included victories over major winners Coco Gauff (6-1, 6-4) and Sofia Kenin (6-2, 6-3).

Mboko showed her grit by erasing one-set deficits in the semifinal and final, knocking off four-time major champion Naomi Osaka to capture the National Bank Open title.

The winning moment ✨

Victoria Mboko captures her first WTA title in Montreal, defeating Osaka 2-6, 6-4, 6-1.#OBN25 pic.twitter.com/OveLB47YMZ
— wta (@WTA) August 8, 2025

And with the win comes expectations.

Mboko will be seeded in her U.S. Open debut and aims to build off her previous two slams. She reached Round 3 at the French Open and Round 2 at Wimbledon.

The 18-year-old started the season ranked No. 333 in the WTA and has since jumped 309 spots. The question is, how much higher can the phenom go?

US Open key dates

First round: Aug. 24-26
Second round: Aug. 27-28
Third round: Aug. 29-30
Round of 16: Aug. 31-Sept. 1
Quarterfinals: Sept. 2-3
Semifinals: Sept. 4 (women’s); Sept. 5 (men’s)
U.S. Open finals: Sept. 6 (women’s); Sept. 7 (men’s)

Victoria Mboko US Open odds: Canadian phenom looks to build on National Bank Open victory

Canadian phenom Victoria Mboko heads to the U.S. Open in search of her first career grand slam title.

The pre-tournament narrative: Mboko shocked the tennis world with a win in her hometown of Montreal this month, beating a quartet of major winners en route to her first WTA title. The 18-year-old is tied for eighth on the odds board and enters with a career-best No. 24 ranking.

Check out our latest Victoria Mboko US Open odds for the 2025 tennis major beginning on Aug. 24.

Victoria Mboko US Open odds

Mboko flashed signs of greatness earlier this year, winning 22 straight matches without dropping a set en route to four ITF titles.

But I don’t think anyone expected her to dominate on the WTA Tour this quickly.

Full U.S. Open betting markets

The Canadian blitzed through the competition in the early goings in Montreal, winning four of her first five matches in straight sets. That included victories over major winners Coco Gauff (6-1, 6-4) and Sofia Kenin (6-2, 6-3).

Mboko showed her grit by erasing one-set deficits in the semifinal and final, knocking off four-time major champion Naomi Osaka to capture the National Bank Open title.

The winning moment ✨

Victoria Mboko captures her first WTA title in Montreal, defeating Osaka 2-6, 6-4, 6-1.#OBN25 pic.twitter.com/OveLB47YMZ
— wta (@WTA) August 8, 2025

And with the win comes expectations.

Mboko will be seeded in her U.S. Open debut and aims to build off her previous two slams. She reached Round 3 at the French Open and Round 2 at Wimbledon.

The 18-year-old started the season ranked No. 333 in the WTA and has since jumped 309 spots. The question is, how much higher can the phenom go?

US Open key dates

First round: Aug. 24-26
Second round: Aug. 27-28
Third round: Aug. 29-30
Round of 16: Aug. 31-Sept. 1
Quarterfinals: Sept. 2-3
Semifinals: Sept. 4 (women’s); Sept. 5 (men’s)
U.S. Open finals: Sept. 6 (women’s); Sept. 7 (men’s)

Top European soccer picks and predictions: Best bets for Serie A opener, Week 2 of EPL and La Liga

The European soccer schedule is in full swing, with matches from the Premier League, Serie A and La Liga making their way into this weekend’s predictions.

The pregame narrative: Bournemouth put up a strong effort against Liverpool in its season opener and should build off that with a home win against Wolverhampton. Elsewhere, I expect two European powerhouses — Barcelona and Inter Milan — to dominate the competition.

Check out this weekend’s best European soccer predictions for games beginning on Saturday, Aug. 23, 2025.

Soccer predictions

Matchup: Bournemouth vs. Wolves (Aug. 23, 10 a.m. ET)

Best bet: Bournemouth to win (-125)

Bournemouth is coming off its best-ever Premier League finish, landing ninth in the 2024-25 table with a 15-11-12 record.

The Cherries sold a trio of promising young defenders over the summer, but also spent north of $100 million on replacements.

They should still be a solid side, and we saw some promise last Friday, when Bournemouth was on the brink of stealing points from the defending champions at Anfield.

Full EPL betting markets

Federico Chiesa eventually broke a 2-2 draw in the 88th minute for Liverpool, but I can’t ignore that effort.

Back at home, I love Bournemouth’s chances of beating an awful Wolverhampton side.

The Wolves finished 16th in the table last year and got shelled, 4-0, by Manchester City at home to open the season.

Vítor Pereira’s side will likely be fighting a relegation battle this year, and I expect it to struggle, again, on the road.

Key stat: Wolverhampton went 6-3-10 on the road last year, losing 4-2 to Bournemouth at home.

La Liga best bet

Matchup: Barcelona vs. Levante (Aug. 23, 3:30 p.m. ET)

Barcelona over 2.5 goals (-130): This is a mismatch of epic proportions, and I expect the score to reflect that.

Barcelona is coming off a renaissance season, winning a domestic Treble (La Liga, Copa del Rey, Supercopa de Espana) and beating its arch-rivals Real Madrid in all four El Clasicos.

Hansi Flick’s side led La Liga in these categories last season, according to FotMob:

Goals per game (2.7)
Possession (69.1%)
xG (92.4)
SOT per match (6.6)

The loaded offence — led by Robert Lewandowski, Lamine Yamal and Raphinha — shouldn’t have a problem dissecting the back line of the freshly promoted Levante.

Bet on La Liga soccer

Serie A prediction

Matchup: Inter Milan vs. Torino (Aug. 25, 2:45 p.m. ET)

Torino under 0.5 goals (+105): I’m expecting Inter Milan to shut out Torino in Serie A’s opening weekend.

The Nerazzurri had a heartbreaking 2024-25 season, finishing one point behind Napoli for the Scudetto and losing badly to PSG in the Champions League final.

However, Inter is still a great team, built on a strong defence.

Last season, it had the third-most clean sheets (16) while allowing the second-fewest goals per game (0.9) and holding the highest possession (59.8%).

Inter has five clean sheet victories in its last six matches against Torino.

Bet on the new Serie A season

Soccer predictions made at 4:05 p.m. on 08/22/25.

Top European soccer picks and predictions: Best bets for Serie A opener, Week 2 of EPL and La Liga

The European soccer schedule is in full swing, with matches from the Premier League, Serie A and La Liga making their way into this weekend’s predictions.

The pregame narrative: Bournemouth put up a strong effort against Liverpool in its season opener and should build off that with a home win against Wolverhampton. Elsewhere, I expect two European powerhouses — Barcelona and Inter Milan — to dominate the competition.

Check out this weekend’s best European soccer predictions for games beginning on Saturday, Aug. 23, 2025.

Soccer predictions

Matchup: Bournemouth vs. Wolves (Aug. 23, 10 a.m. ET)

Best bet: Bournemouth to win (-130)

Bournemouth is coming off its best-ever Premier League finish, landing ninth in the 2024-25 table with a 15-11-12 record.

The Cherries sold a trio of promising young defenders over the summer, but also spent north of $100 million on replacements.

They should still be a solid side, and we saw some promise last Friday, when Bournemouth was on the brink of stealing points from the defending champions at Anfield.

Full EPL betting markets

Federico Chiesa eventually broke a 2-2 draw in the 88th minute for Liverpool, but I can’t ignore that effort.

Back at home, I love Bournemouth’s chances of beating an awful Wolverhampton side.

The Wolves finished 16th in the table last year and got shelled, 4-0, by Manchester City at home to open the season.

Vítor Pereira’s side will likely be fighting a relegation battle this year, and I expect it to struggle, again, on the road.

Key stat: Wolverhampton went 6-3-10 on the road last year, losing 4-2 to Bournemouth at home.

La Liga best bet

Matchup: Barcelona vs. Levante (Aug. 23, 3:30 p.m. ET)

Barcelona over 2.5 goals (-130): This is a mismatch of epic proportions, and I expect the score to reflect that.

Barcelona is coming off a renaissance season, winning a domestic Treble (La Liga, Copa del Rey, Supercopa de Espana) and beating its arch-rivals Real Madrid in all four El Clasicos.

Hansi Flick’s side led La Liga in these categories last season, according to FotMob:

Goals per game (2.7)
Possession (69.1%)
xG (92.4)
SOT per match (6.6)

The loaded offence — led by Robert Lewandowski, Lamine Yamal and Raphinha — shouldn’t have a problem dissecting the back line of the freshly promoted Levante.

Bet on La Liga soccer

Serie A prediction

Matchup: Inter Milan vs. Torino (Aug. 25, 2:45 p.m. ET)

Torino under 0.5 goals (+100): I’m expecting Inter Milan to shut out Torino in Serie A’s opening weekend.

The Nerazzurri had a heartbreaking 2024-25 season, finishing one point behind Napoli for the Scudetto and losing badly to PSG in the Champions League final.

However, Inter is still a great team, built on a strong defence.

Last season, it had the third-most clean sheets (16) while allowing the second-fewest goals per game (0.9) and holding the highest possession (59.8%).

Inter has five clean sheet victories in its last six matches against Torino.

Bet on the new Serie A season

Soccer predictions made at 1:30 p.m. on 08/20/25.

MLB home run picks Aug. 20: Back Giancarlo Stanton and Willy Adames on Wednesday

The red-hot Giancarlo Stanton headlines Wednesday’s best MLB home run picks.

Today’s MLB HR narrative: Stanton mashed his 13th and 14th homers of the season last night, and now boasts a near-1.000 slugging percentage in August. The New York Yankee has a tough matchup against Tampa Bay’s Drew Rasmussen, but I still think he can come out on top.

Check out the best MLB home run picks and analysis for Aug. 20, featuring a pick on Willy Adames.

MLB home run picks

Best bet: Stanton to hit a home run (+320)

Stanton has improved month over month after a long IL stint to start the season and is going nuclear to close out August:

June: .243/.333/.270, 0 HRs
July: .284/.346/.635, 8 HRs
August: .417/.512/.944, 6 HRs

The towering DH still strikes out a ton and walks a lot, which isn’t ideal for a play like this. But when he puts bat to ball, the results are undeniable.

Stanton doesn’t have enough PAs to qualify, but his .542 xSLG, 19.8% barrel rate, and 56.3% hard-hit rate would all rank in the 90th percentile or higher, per Baseball Savant.

Now, he’s tasked with cracking Rasmussen, who owns a 2.60 ERA and 0.98 WHIP.

I don’t think a homer from Stanton is such a crazy ask, given Rasmussen’s questionable underlying metrics and the hitter-friendly environment of this game.

Rasmussen’s 3.44 xERA is much higher than his standard number.

His whiff rate, average exit velocity and hard-hit rate all rank in the bottom-25th percentile.

George M. Steinbrenner Field, the Yankees’ spring training facility and Rays’ temporary home, is ceding 33% more HRs to right-handed hitters than average, per Baseball Savant’s park factors.

Key stat: Stanton is slugging .643 against RHP this year and .613 on the road.

Best HR predictions

Adames to hit a home run (+265): It’s hard to get behind anyone on the Giants right now, but Adames checks a lot of the boxes I’m looking for.

Opponent: Lefty JP Sears is pitching for the San Diego Padres. His 1.8 HR/9 rate would be the second-highest in MLB if he had enough innings to qualify.

Platoon advantage: The right-hitting Adames is slugging .525 vs. LHP since the all-star break with two home runs.

Location: Petco Park has been the fifth-most homer-friendly venue for RHHs over the last three seasons.

Sears gives up a ton of hard contact and doesn’t issue many free passes. Adames is slumping big time this month, but still has some pop in his bat and the ability to capitalize on a bad pitch.

MLB home run picks made at 11:03 a.m. ET on 08/20/2025.

MLB home run picks Aug. 20: Back Giancarlo Stanton and Willy Adames on Wednesday

The red-hot Giancarlo Stanton headlines Wednesday’s best MLB home run picks.

Today’s MLB HR narrative: Stanton mashed his 13th and 14th homers of the season last night, and now boasts a near-1.000 slugging percentage in August. The New York Yankee has a tough matchup against Tampa Bay’s Drew Rasmussen, but I still think he can come out on top.

Check out the best MLB home run picks and analysis for Aug. 20, featuring a pick on Willy Adames.

MLB home run picks

Best bet: Stanton to hit a home run (+375)

Stanton has improved month over month after a long IL stint to start the season and is going nuclear to close out August:

June: .243/.333/.270, 0 HRs
July: .284/.346/.635, 8 HRs
August: .417/.512/.944, 6 HRs

The towering DH still strikes out a ton and walks a lot, which isn’t ideal for a play like this. But when he puts bat to ball, the results are undeniable.

Stanton doesn’t have enough PAs to qualify, but his .542 xSLG, 19.8% barrel rate, and 56.3% hard-hit rate would all rank in the 90th percentile or higher, per Baseball Savant.

Now, he’s tasked with cracking Rasmussen, who owns a 2.60 ERA and 0.98 WHIP.

I don’t think a homer from Stanton is such a crazy ask, given Rasmussen’s questionable underlying metrics and the hitter-friendly environment of this game.

Rasmussen’s 3.44 xERA is much higher than his standard number.

His whiff rate, average exit velocity and hard-hit rate all rank in the bottom-25th percentile.

George M. Steinbrenner Field, the Yankees’ spring training facility and Rays’ temporary home, is ceding 33% more HRs to right-handed hitters than average, per Baseball Savant’s park factors.

Key stat: Stanton is slugging .643 against RHP this year and .613 on the road.

Best HR predictions

Adames to hit a home run (+375): It’s hard to get behind anyone on the Giants right now, but Adames checks a lot of the boxes I’m looking for.

Opponent: Lefty JP Sears is pitching for the San Diego Padres. His 1.8 HR/9 rate would be the second-highest in MLB if he had enough innings to qualify.

Platoon advantage: The right-hitting Adames is slugging .525 vs. LHP since the all-star break with two home runs.

Location: Petco Park has been the fifth-most homer-friendly venue for RHHs over the last three seasons.

Sears gives up a ton of hard contact and doesn’t issue many free passes. Adames is slumping big time this month, but still has some pop in his bat and the ability to capitalize on a bad pitch.

MLB home run picks made at 11:03 a.m. ET on 08/20/2025.

Blue Jays vs. Pirates best bets Aug. 20: Back George Springer in Wednesday’s series finale

The Toronto Blue Jays and Pittsburgh Pirates meet for a Wednesday matinee at PNC Park.

The pregame narrative: Toronto is favoured to win this rubber match behind Chris Bassitt, even though the righty has awful road numbers. Pittsburgh counters with Johan Oviedo, who’s making his second big league start since recovering from 2023 Tommy John surgery.

Check out my Blue Jays best bets vs. the Pirates for Aug. 20, featuring George Springer.

Blue Jays best bets vs. Pirates

Best bet: Over 8.5 runs (-112)

On a good day, Toronto’s offence is capable of clearing this number on its own.

The Jays lead MLB in batting average (.299), slugging percentage (.501), K rate (17.1%) and wRC+ (141) since the all-star break, and rank second in runs per game (5.94).

Unsurprisingly, taking the over during this stretch has been quite profitable.

Toronto is 19-12 on overs since the ASG.

That includes a 5-0 overs record when Bassitt is pitching.

Plenty of offence has become the norm, and I don’t expect Oviedo to quiet Toronto’s bats.

The righty has a career 4.36 ERA and was lifted after one inning in his return to MLB on Aug. 4, giving up two runs while walking three on 43 pitches.

And while Pittsburgh’s lineup is far from imposing, it should chip in on this effort.

Bassitt has gotten hit hard on the road, posting an unsightly 6.39 ERA across 11 starts.

Opponents are batting .298 against him, and his K rate plummets when he’s away from Rogers Centre (9.6 K/9 at home, 7.0 on the road).

Key stat: Overs are 12-8-1 in games where Toronto is a road favourite. That’s the second-best mark in MLB, per Team Rankings.

Quick picks

Springer over 1.5 bases (-106): Toronto’s leadoff man has picked up where he left off since returning from a 16-game injury absence, going 5-for-16 with two home runs.

The veteran outfielder was having a monster July before getting injured — .371/.451/.640 slash line, seven home runs — and should have plenty of opportunities to get after Oviedo today.

Oviedo relies heavily on a two-pitch mix, throwing a four-seam fastball and slider.

Springer has destroyed four-seamers from righties all season, batting .278 with a .556 SLG against that offering. And his expected numbers (.302 xBA, .676 xSLG) suggest there’s plenty of room for improvement.

On the whole, his numbers against RHP (.313/.397/.530) are much better than his numbers against LHP (.228/.345/.467).

Blue Jays best bets made at 9:02 a.m. ET on 08/20/2025.

Blue Jays vs. Pirates best bets Aug. 20: Back George Springer in Wednesday’s series finale

The Toronto Blue Jays and Pittsburgh Pirates meet for a Wednesday matinee at PNC Park.

The pregame narrative: Toronto is favoured to win this rubber match behind Chris Bassitt, even though the righty has awful road numbers. Pittsburgh counters with Johan Oviedo, who’s making his second big league start since recovering from 2023 Tommy John surgery.

Check out my Blue Jays best bets vs. the Pirates for Aug. 20, featuring Oviedo and George Springer.

Blue Jays best bets vs. Pirates

Best bet: Over 8.5 runs (-112)

On a good day, Toronto’s offence is capable of clearing this number on its own.

The Jays lead MLB in batting average (.299), slugging percentage (.501), K rate (17.1%) and wRC+ (141) since the all-star break, and rank second in runs per game (5.94).

Unsurprisingly, taking the over during this stretch has been quite profitable.

Toronto is 19-12 on overs since the ASG.

That includes a 5-0 overs record when Bassitt is pitching.

Plenty of offence has become the norm, and I don’t expect Oviedo to quiet Toronto’s bats.

The righty has a career 4.36 ERA and was lifted after one inning in his return to MLB on Aug. 4, giving up two runs while walking three on 43 pitches.

And while Pittsburgh’s lineup is far from imposing, it should chip in on this effort.

Bassitt has gotten hit hard on the road, posting an unsightly 6.39 ERA across 11 starts.

Opponents are batting .298 against him, and his K rate plummets when he’s away from Rogers Centre (9.6 K/9 at home, 7.0 on the road).

Key stat: Overs are 12-8-1 in games where Toronto is a road favourite. That’s the second-best mark in MLB, per Team Rankings.

Quick picks

Oviedo under 3.5 Ks (-129): This is a small number for a starter, but Oviedo has never been a big swing-and-miss arm and now gets the toughest matchup in baseball.

The righty has a career 7.9 K/9 rate, and has never crested the 50th percentile for K rate (per Baseball Savant).

Toronto has the lowest K rate in MLB on the season, since the all-star break, and against RHP.

Oviedo did rack up a 15-to-3 K/BB rate over two minor league starts this month, but I won’t put much stock into that.

The 27-year-old relies heavily on a two-pitch mix, throwing a four-seam fastball and slider. Toronto has the eighth-lowest whiff rate vs. four-seamers, and the lowest vs. sliders against RHP.

Springer over 1.5 bases (-120): Toronto’s leadoff man has picked up where he left off since returning from a 16-game injury absence, going 5-for-16 with two home runs.

The veteran outfielder was having a monster July before getting injured — .371/.451/.640 slash line, seven home runs — and should have plenty of opportunities to get after Oviedo today.

Springer has destroyed four-seamers from righties all season, batting .278 with a .556 SLG against that offering. And his expected numbers (.302 xBA, .676 xSLG) suggest there’s plenty of room for improvement.

On the whole, his numbers against RHP (.313/.397/.530) are much better than his numbers against LHP (.228/.345/.467).

Blue Jays best bets made at 9:02 a.m. ET on 08/20/2025.

2025 Tour Championship predictions: Best bets and matchup picks at East Lake Golf Club

The top 30 PGA Tour players vie for the FedEx Cup at the Tour Championship this week.

The latest: Scottie Scheffler is fresh off his fifth win of the season — and 14th since the start of 2023. He’s a heavy favourite to win this limited-field finale and put a bow on a historic campaign. I’m keying in on three players, including Viktor Hovland, a former winner at East Lake, in these picks.

Check out my Tour Championship predictions for the 2025 tournament beginning on Aug. 21.

Tour Championship predictions

Best bet: Viktor Hovland over Justin Thomas (-120)

Hovland and Thomas have each thrived at this venue, but I’m quite bullish on the former to separate from the pack this week.

The Norwegian has been the second-best iron player in the world over the last three months by strokes gained: approach, and he ranked second in that category at the BMW Championship last week.

Read: Tour Championship odds, betting preview & outright picks

That propelled him to a T7 finish, 13 shots clear of Thomas, who finished T33.

Elite ball striking will serve Hovland well at any venue, and I’m confident we’ll get that this week. But what really excites me is how the rest of his game is rounding out:

Hovland has gained strokes putting in four straight starts.

He’s also been an above-average driver in his last four starts.

The PGA Tour has made it clear that East Lake will feature more difficult pins and have thicker rough this year. Hitting fairways will be key to setting up approach shots into the new hole locations.

Thomas has struggled mightily in that regard lately and is the least accurate driver in this field over the last three months (-10.4% below baseline).

Key stat: Hovland won this event in 2023 and beat Thomas last year with a 12th-place finish.

More golf picks

Keegan Bradley over Corey Conners (-132): Conners has become a mainstay at this event, reaching the Tour Championship in four of the last five seasons.

Unfortunately for the Canadian, East Lake hasn’t treated him so kindly.

He has yet to crack the top 20 in a 30-man field and is gaining just 0.23 strokes per round. That is -1.19 below his expectation, the lowest mark of anyone in the field.

Conners is also in ugly form stateside, finishing in the bottom half of both FedEx Cup playoff events while losing a ton of strokes putting.

Bradley has a lot to play for this week, given that a strong finish would justify a self-pick for the Ryder Cup.

The American captain finished T17 last week and is typically an accurate driver with a great short game.

Full Tour Championship betting markets

Brian Harman top left-hander (+210): Harman will have to beat out two other lefties to win this wager, Akshay Bhatia and Robert MacIntyre.

So I’m loving these odds, given the way East Lake should fit his game.

Harman is one of the most accurate drivers on tour, which will help him stay out of trouble and avoid costly penalties.

The 2023 Open Championship winner has proven to be a big game hunter and enters this event in strong form, gaining an average of 1.76 strokes per round in his last five tournaments.

In that span, he is positive in all four major strokes gained categories and has three top-20 finishes.

Tour Championship predictions made at 2:33 p.m. on 08/19/2025.

PGA Tour Championship odds and 2025 betting preview: Top favourites, best bets to win FedEx Cup playoffs

Scottie Scheffler headlines a 30-man field at the revamped Tour Championship with a massive $40 million purse on the line.

The latest: Starting strokes, be gone. For the first time since 2019, every player will begin at even par at East Lake Golf Club. The lowest scoring player after four rounds will hoist the FedEx Cup, making Scheffler’s title defence a little tougher.

Check out our Tour Championship betting preview and best bets to win the FedEx Cup playoffs. The PGA golf tournament starts Aug. 21 at East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta.

Tour Championship odds

Full Tour Championship betting markets

East Lake has hosted the Tour Championship since 1998 and plays as a 7,226 par-70. The PGA Tour has committed to a tougher, more strategic setup at East Lake this year, with new pin locations and thicker rough to heighten competition and drama.

Scheffler (+163) secured his fifth win of the season last week after erasing a four-shot final round deficit to win by two at the BMW Championship. The No. 1-ranked player has now reached a +3.3 skill index on DataGolf, inching closer to prime Tiger Woods at +3.88.

Scheffler won this event last year at 30-under, but was actually beaten out by two players — Collin Morikawa and Sahith Theegala — on the 72-hole aggregate scoring.

There are four additional prior champions in the field: Rory McIlroy (x3), Viktor Hovland, Patrick Cantlay, and Xander Schauffele.

2025 Tour Championship predictions

Best bet: McIlroy winner without Scheffler (+450)

I want no part of betting against Scheffler right now, and thankfully, I can avoid him entirely with the “winner without” market.

McIlroy is flying under the radar heading into this tournament, despite going winless since the Masters.

He has five straight top-20 finishes, gaining strokes off-the-tee on approach and putting in four consecutive events.

McIlroy has also won this event three times, most recently in 2022 after starting at -4, six shots back of Scheffler.

On a level playing field, I could see him contesting for an outright win at +800. But then again, why run the risk of betting against the best player since Tiger?

Key stat: McIlroy’s +2.66 average strokes gained at East Lake Golf Club is the second-best in the field, behind Justin Thomas.

PGA Tour best bets

Full Tour Championship betting markets

Sepp Straka winner without Scheffler (+2,000) & top-10 finish (+150): Straka missed last week’s event due to a personal matter, but still qualified for the Tour Championship thanks to picking up a pair of wins earlier this season (American Express, Truist Championship).

He also finished T3 at the Memorial Tournament and T5 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, two of the most difficult venues on the PGA Tour.

At his best, Straka is an elite ball striker who hits a ton of fairways. That will be the recipe for success this week, and I’m happy to take a flier on him at +2,000.

Asking him to finish inside the top 33% of this field seems like a steal, given his high floor. Straka made the top-20 in 13 of his 17 non-major starts this year.

Tour Championship picks made at 3:30 p.m. on 08/18/2025.

Tour Championship FAQ

What is the change in format from 2024?
From 2019-2024, the Tour Championship used a starting-strokes system. Players began the tournament with staggered scores based on their FedEx Cup standings (−10 for the leader, −8 for second, and so on). Now, all 30 players will start at even par in a 72-hole stroke play event.

How is the $40 million purse divided?
The winner of the Tour Championship will receive $10 million, with second place taking home $5 million. Every player is guaranteed at least $355,000.

Was there a reward for leading the season in FedEx Cup points?
Yes, Scheffler was No. 1 in points entering the FedEx Cup playoffs and earned a $10 million bonus. He earned another $5 million bonus for leading in points entering the Tour Championship.

When does the Tour Championship start?
The event begins on Thursday, Aug. 18, at 11:20 a.m. ET. Players will be grouped in pairings of two, heading off every 10 minutes.

How many Canadians qualified for the Tour Championship?
Corey Conners (+4,000) and Nick Taylor (+10,000) are the two Canadians in the 30-man field. Taylor Pendrith narrowly missed the cutoff after finishing 33rd on the FedEx Cup points list. Conners is making his fourth start while Taylor is making his second, but neither has finished inside the top 20 before.