Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.
The Toronto Blue Jays and New York Yankees are back in action for Game 2 of the ALDS on Sunday.
The pregame narrative: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. opened the scoring yesterday with a mammoth home run, and Toronto never looked back in a 10-1 win. Now, the Jays turn to rookie Trey Yesavage, who will try to out-duel Yankees ace Max Fried. New York has won five of Fried’s last six starts and is favoured today.
Check out my Yankees vs. Blue Jays best bets for ALDS Game 2, featuring prop bets on George Springer and Yesavage.
Getting Toronto’s leadoff man to score at plus money isn’t something you’d often see during the regular season.
But we’re in October, and I want every piece of this inflated line.
Springer was the Jays’ MVP this year, and his ridiculous second-half helped Toronto secure the No. 1 seed.
First in OPS (1.121)
First in wRC+ (210)
Second in batting average (.369)
Fourth in runs scored (53)
Springer went 0-4 in Saturday’s series opener, but still walked and scored. He has now cashed this wager in four of his last five games with six total runs.
Fried is obviously an elite talent, but Springer has had the southpaw’s number.
He is 5-for-15 against the lefty with two doubles, no strikeouts, and two walks, and his .334 xBA and .579 xSLG indicate those results were well earned.
Getting aboard seems like a certainty, and I fully trust Toronto’s lineup to drive him home.
The Jays have shelled Fried twice at Rogers Centre this year, scoring 10 runs against him in 11.1 IP. Springer scored in both of those contests.
Key stat: Fried has a career 6.35 ERA at the Rogers Centre.
Other MLB postseason predictions
Yesavage over 4.5 Ks (+105): Yesavage is making his fourth career start today, and I think he’ll have Yankees hitters in knots.
The rookie posted an otherworldly 14.5 K/9 rate in the minors this season, and has looked solid in the big leagues so far:
Sept. 15 @ TB: 5.0 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 9 Ks
Sept. 21 @ KC: 4.0 IP, 5 H, 4 ER, 2 Ks
Sept. 27 vs. TB: 5,0 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 5 Ks
Yesavage posted a 35.4% whiff rate in those outings. Dylan Cease led all qualified pitchers with a 33.4% whiff rate in the regular season.
I’ll cut him some slack for his performance against the Kansas City Royals, who had the second-lowest K rate in MLB.
New York swings freely and owned the sixth-highest K (23.5) and whiff (26.4) rates during the season.
That’s fine and dandy when the Yankees are tearing the cover off the ball, but I’m not sold on their offence through four playoff games.
Aaron Judge is the biggest reason why the team is a threat, but he’s routinely shrunken under the bright lights of the postseason.
I don’t trust him to produce, and think Yesavage should have the leash to pitch into the fifth inning or deeper if he can get through the heart of New York’s order twice.
Yankees vs. Blue Jays best bets as of 8:17 a.m. on 10/05/2025.
The Toronto Blue Jays and New York Yankees are back in action for Game 2 of the ALDS on Sunday.
The pregame narrative: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. opened the scoring yesterday with a mammoth home run, and Toronto never looked back in a 10-1 win. Now, the Jays turn to rookie Trey Yesavage, who will try to out-duel Yankees ace Max Fried. New York has won five of Fried’s last six starts and is favoured today.
Check out my Yankees vs. Blue Jays best bets for ALDS Game 2, featuring prop bets on George Springer and Yesavage.
Yankees vs. Blue Jays best bets
Best bet: Springer to score (+112)
Getting Toronto’s leadoff man to score at plus money isn’t something you’d often see during the regular season.
But we’re in October, and I want every piece of this inflated line.
Springer was the Jays’ MVP this year, and his ridiculous second-half helped Toronto secure the No. 1 seed.
First in OPS (1.121)
First in wRC+ (210)
Second in batting average (.369)
Fourth in runs scored (53)
Springer went 0-4 in Saturday’s series opener, but still walked and scored. He has now cashed this wager in four of his last five games with six total runs.
Fried is obviously an elite talent, but Springer has had the southpaw’s number.
He is 5-for-15 against the lefty with two doubles, no strikeouts, and two walks, and his .334 xBA and .579 xSLG indicate those results were well earned.
Getting aboard seems like a certainty, and I fully trust Toronto’s lineup to drive him home.
The Jays have shelled Fried twice at Rogers Centre this year, scoring 10 runs against him in 11.1 IP. Springer scored in both of those contests.
Key stat: Fried has a career 6.35 ERA at the Rogers Centre.
Yesavage over 4.5 Ks (-121): Yesavage is making his fourth career start today, and I think he’ll have Yankees hitters in knots.
The rookie posted an otherworldly 14.5 K/9 rate in the minors this season, and has looked solid in the big leagues so far:
Sept. 15 @ TB: 5.0 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 9 Ks
Sept. 21 @ KC: 4.0 IP, 5 H, 4 ER, 2 Ks
Sept. 27 vs. TB: 5,0 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 5 Ks
Yesavage posted a 35.4% whiff rate in those outings. Dylan Cease led all qualified pitchers with a 33.4% whiff rate in the regular season.
I’ll cut him some slack for his performance against the Kansas City Royals, who had the second-lowest K rate in MLB.
New York swings freely and owned the sixth-highest K (23.5) and whiff (26.4) rates during the season.
That’s fine and dandy when the Yankees are tearing the cover off the ball, but I’m not sold on their offence through four playoff games.
Aaron Judge is the biggest reason why the team is a threat, but he’s routinely shrunken under the bright lights of the postseason.
I don’t trust him to produce, and think Yesavage should have the leash to pitch into the fifth inning or deeper if he can get through the heart of New York’s order twice.
Yankees vs. Blue Jays best bets as of 8:17 a.m. on 10/05/2025.
The stage is set for an epic ALDS battle between the Toronto Blue Jays and New York Yankees, who meet in October for the first time.
Toronto exceeded all expectations this year, clinching the AL East on the final day of the regular season with a league-best 94 wins. New York matched that total, but the Jays held the tiebreaker after dominating the regular-season series. Still, it’s Aaron Boone’s group which is favoured to win, despite starting on the road with a rest disadvantage.
Check out our Yankees vs. Blue Jays preview for the MLB postseason series beginning on Saturday, Oct. 4 at Rogers Centre.
The Yankees and Boston Red Sox went the full three games in the wild-card round, and New York was forced to burn through its top starting arms (Max Fried, Carlos Rodon, Cam Schlittler) in the process.
That means either Luis Gil or Will Warren will get the start in Game 1 against Kevin Gausman, setting the scene for the Jays to take an early lead.
It’s hard to imagine Toronto winning this series without taking two games at home, given how the pitching matchups should shake out and New York’s shortcomings at Rogers Centre.
The Jays went 6-1 against the Yankees at home this year, outscoring them 52-33 in those contests.
Bo Bichette was a big part of that success, though, and it seems unlikely he’ll rejoin Toronto during this series while rehabbing a knee injury.
Scoring by committee is nice, but let’s address the elephant in the room: The Jays will likely need a stellar offensive performance out of their $500 million man, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., to advance.
Probable starting pitcher matchups and ALDS schedule
Game 1 in Toronto: Oct. 4, 4:08 p.m. ET TBD vs. RHP Gausman (10-10, 3.38 ERA)
Gausman ended his season by giving up four runs in consecutive outings, but still posted a 2.81 ERA across 13 second-half starts. He held opponents to a .201 batting average in that span, and logged a pair of strong outings against the Yankees at home (15.0 IP, 2 ER, 13 Ks).
At the time of writing, it’s a toss-up for Game 1. Gil has gotten hit hard at Rogers Centre (career 5.40 ERA) while Warren has gotten hit hard in general (4.40 ERA this season). You would think Boone would ride with Gil, who won AL Rookie of the Year in 2024 and has a 3.32 ERA.
Game 2 in Toronto: Oct. 5, 4:08 p.m. ET LHP Fried (19-5, 2.86 ERA) vs. RHP Shane Bieber (4-2, 3.57 ERA)
All signs point to Bieber starting Game 2. He’s been a home run acquisition for the Jays since the trade deadline, posting a 3.57 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in seven starts. Bieber has held New York’s active lineup to a .154 batting average with a 32.7% K rate in 52 at-bats.
Starting Fried on Sunday guarantees New York the option of having him available for a winner-take-all Game 5. The southpaw just threw six scoreless innings against the Red Sox after posting a 1.89 ERA in September. Toronto has hit him hard at Rogers Centre this year, though (eight runs in 11.1 IP).
Game 3 in New York: Oct. 7, TBD RHP Trey Yesavage (1-0, 3.21 ERA) vs. LHP Rodon (18-9, 3.09 ERA)
Toronto’s going to need Yesavage dialled for a deep postseason run. The rookie has only made three starts, but flashed elite swing-and-miss stuff, logging 16 Ks in 14.0 IP. That came after posting an absurd 14.7 K/9 rate in the minors.
Rodon gritted his way to a quality start vs. Boston (6.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 H, 3 BB) after posting a stellar 3.09 second-half ERA. The southpaw has a 4.72 career ERA vs. Toronto, though, with New York losing four of his last five starts against the Jays.
Game 4 in New York (if necessary): Oct. 8, TBD TBD vs. RHP Cam Schlittler (4-3, 2.96 ERA)
Toronto could go Chris Bassitt, Max Scherzer or a bullpen game if we get here. We saw what the latter looked like in a high-leverage game on Sept. 25 against Boston. Louie Varland served as the opener, throwing 2.0 innings before southpaw Eric Lauer went 3.1 strong. Five other relievers chipped in on the win.
Schlittler earned his pinstripes on Thursday by suffocating the Red Sox in a do-or-die wild-card Game 3. The rookie threw eight shutout innings, with zero walks and 12 Ks. It was special. The righty got hammered in his last outing against Toronto, conceding four ERs in 1.2 IP.
Game 5 in Toronto (if necessary): Oct. 10, TBD LHP Max Fried (19-5, 2.86 ERA) vs. RHP Kevin Gausman (10-10, 3.38 ERA)
You would think a potential winner-take-all Game 5 should play into Toronto’s favour if the series gets there. Gausman would be pitching on five days of rest, while Fried would be pitching on four days’ rest for a second consecutive go.
But Fried has a sparkling 2.92 career ERA on four days’ rest and a 1.75 ERA on four days’ rest this season (13 starts).
Yankees vs. Blue Jays bullpen spotlight
Bullpens can make or break a postseason run, and both teams made it a priority to shore up on big arms at the deadline.
Toronto acquired Varland (2.97 ERA) and Seranthony Dominguez (3.00 ERA with TOR) to join an already solid group.
Ryan Borucki, Braydon Fisher and Yariel Rodriguez all sported sub-2.00 ERAs in September, and so did closer Jeff Hoffman, who has only allowed one run in his last 11.2 IP.
All in all, the Jays’ relief corps has the fifth-best ERA (4.36) and strand rate (57.1%) in high leverage situations since Aug. 1, according to FanGraphs.
New York, meanwhile, ranked 15th (5.97 ERA) and 14th (47.5 strand rate) in those categories.
The Yankees have struggled to find consistency from their relievers, with deadline acquisition David Bednar and two-time NL Reliever of the Year Devin Williams being the best of the group.
But even those two have struggled at times, with others being downright liabilities.
Blue Jays vs. Yankees preview: Jays by the numbers
George Springer (DH/OF): Toronto could very well be out of the playoff picture right now if it weren’t for Springer. At the very least, it would be gearing up to start the series in the Bronx. The veteran led the majors in wRC+ (210), OPS (1.121) and batting average (.369) in the second half.
Sprigner is also a noted postseason menace, with 19 career home runs to his name over 67 games. That would extrapolate to a 45-homer pace over a full season.
One more for the road. George Springer's 32nd home run of 2025.
Guerrero (1B): If Guerrero doesn’t go deep on Saturday, it will have been a full month since he’s last left the yard. He still ranks in the 90th percentile or better in a ton of key offensive metrics (including xBA, xSLG, hard-hit rate and K rate), but Toronto needs more pop from its No. 3 hitter.
But Jays fans who have watched him in the playoffs might be holding their breath on that front. Guerrero is 3-for-22 in the posteason with one double.
He did bat a blistering .373/.439/.569 against NYY this year, though.
Gausman (SP): I mentioned Gausman’s shaky end to the season, and think it’s worth highlighting again. He gave up 17 hits and three walks in 9.1 IP — and both outings were at home. It’s reasonable to wonder if John Schneider will have a shorter leash with the righty, given his poor postseason history (6.91 ERA over 25.2 IP).
Daulton Varsho (CF): As crazy as it sounds, Varsho could be the man who decides this series. The gold glove outfielder has huge pop and will play at a pair of ballparks favourable to LHBs. He’s belted 12 homers with an .861 OPS since returning from the IL in August.
Yankees postseason performers
Aaron Judge (RF): Judge had a quietly productive wild-card round, going 4-for-11 and scoring four runs. But he had zero extra-base hits, which, like Guerrero, has become a concerning theme. Judge is slugging just .386 in his last 25 playoff games.
A date with Gausman at Rogers Centre might be just the slump-buster he needs.
The reigning AL MVP is 17-for-48 against Gausman with three doubles and six home runs (.792 SLG). He also slugged .750 in Toronto this year.
Giancarlo Stanton (DH): Stanton was a menace in the postseason last year, but went 1-for-11 in the wild-card round. That continued the big man’s underwhelming end to the season, where he posted a .224 BA and .294 OBP in September.
Cody Bellinger (OF): Bellinger might be in for a tough series. The lefty bat is running extreme reverse splits against southpaws, slashing .353/.415/.601 this year. But Toronto has zero lefties in its starting rotation, and Bellinger’s .244/.304/.437 slash line vs. RHP is nothing to write home about.
Trent Grisham (OF): Grisham is a below-average fielder who isn’t bringing anything to the plate at the moment. He went 2-for-12 in the wild-card series with five Ks and just one walk. The lefty bat is slugging .506 against righties this year, but batted just .222 in 36 PAs against Toronto.
Yankees vs. Blue Jays preview: Betting trends
Toronto has the 3rd-best run line record in MLB (91-71, 56.2%).
Overs are 87-69-6 in Blue Jays games (2nd in MLB).
Unders are 16-8-2 in Yankees playoff games since 2022.
The Jays went 54-27 at home (2nd in MLB).
The Yankees went 52-32 at home (eighth in MLB). That includes a 4-2 record against Toronto.
The average total in Yankees vs. Blue Jays games this year was 9.92 runs.
Jeff Hoffman is 5-for-5 in save opportunities since Aug. 27.
ALDS predictions
Blue Jays vs. Yankees predictions via Avery Perri, Chris Toman and Spencer Closs.
•Blue Jays to win ALDS (+135)
Perri: Toronto’s playoff history must play a factor in its underdog status. The club is winless in six games in the Guerrero and Bichette era.
Nonetheless, I believe the Jays are a much better team.
Toronto’s offence since the all-star break: First in the AL in OPS, batting average and wRC+.
Its defence ranks fifth in DRS, while New York sits 14th. Errors cost the Yankees big time when they played at Rogers Centre earlier this year.
The Blue Jays’ pen is better in higher-leverage spots, and their starting rotation has more rest.
Fried is the Yankees’ best starting arm, but his 6.35 career ERA in Toronto is alarming.
If Bichette were in the lineup, I’d wager on a sweep. Still, I trust Toronto to finish the job without him.
•Series over 4.5 games (+165)
Toman: There’s great value on this number, as far as I’m concerned.
Toronto was the better team in the regular season, has home-field advantage and a sizable starting pitching edge in Game 1.
I expect the Blue Jays, who ranked No. 1 in MLB in batting average and on-base percentage, to begin the ALDS with a victory before the edge might tip in New York’s favour.
The Yankees will be able to go Fried, Rodon and Schlittler for Games 2-4, which, in a vacuum, I like more than Bieber, Yesavage and TBD for Toronto.
New York hit more home runs than any club this season, ranked No. 1 in wRC+ and has the best hitter on the planet in Judge.
But do I see New York winning all three of those games? No.
Toronto, on the other hand, is a fundamentally sound team with versatility and plays great defence. But I’m not confident the Jays will have their way with New York and either sweep or take three of four.
So I love getting this big plus-money payout on the series going the distance.
Blue Jays vs. Yankees preview: Long shot prediction
•Springer to lead series in homers (+900)
Closs: Springer is coming off the best regular season of his career.
Take a look at his numbers and where they stack up in MLB.
.959 OPS (3rd)
166 WRC+ (3rd)
.560 SLG (5th)
For context, his OPS and WRC+ were higher than Cal Raleigh, who clubbed 60 homers.
Springer was truly among the elite hitters in baseball, but he’s not being priced as such.
Aaron Judge trumped Springer in all three of those stats, and he’s the rightful favourite to lead the series. But +300 for Judge is a far steeper price to pay than +900 for Springer.
This is also the playoffs where the lights shine the brightest. Unlike most, Springer is a proven playoff performer. He’s top 10 all-time in postseason home runs (19) from his time with the Houston Astros.
Finally, the Jays have the advantage of deploying their starters how they want, while the Yankees aren’t able to start with the best foot forward.
That should give Toronto hitters the slight edge, and Springer’s the best of the bunch.
A must-see title rematch between Magomed Ankalaev and Alex Pereira headlines Saturday’s stacked UFC 320 card.
The pre-fight narrative: Ankalaev snatched the light heavyweight crown from Pereira in March, handing the Brazilian his first loss in the weight class, and is favoured to win Round 2. Before that, Merab Dvalishvili defends his bantamweight title against Cory Sandhagen.
Check out the odds, fight card and my UFC 320 predictions for the Oct. 4 fight in Las Vegas.
UFC 320 predictions
Best bet: Dvalishvili to win, Ankalaev/Pereira over 2.5 rounds (-120)
I’m looking to get in on the main and co-main events with this parlay.
Let’s start with Dvalishvili, who has torn apart the bantamweight division during his 13-fight winning streak.
It hasn’t been the flashiest run — only two of those came via finish — but it sure has been effective.
The Georgian is known for his elite ground game, but is also a strong standup fighter. Dvalishvili stands at 5-foot-6, five inches shorter than Sandhagen, but is almost equal in reach.
He should neutralize the Americans’ brawling tendencies before landing one of many takedowns.
Sandhagen was bullied by Umar Nurmagomedov when they battled in 2024, getting taken down five times and losing handily.
Dvalishvili also faced Nurmagomedov and dominated him, so I really don’t think this will be close.
Now we can turn to the main event.
Ankalaev picked up a gritty, five-round win over Pereira when they last fought. He went 0-for-12 on takedowns and turned the tide of the fight after the first few rounds with strong striking instead.
I think the Dagestani will have more success wrestling in this matchup, after insisting he was gassed in the first meeting because of fasting during Ramadan.
If that holds true, a methodical ground game would bleed time off the clock.
Pereira is a KO machine and will certainly look to land a big combo early, but Ankalaev is a sneakily strong striker and has never been put out in his career.
Key stat: Six of Ankalaev’s last nine fights have gone the distance.
Magomedov to win (+200): The main card opens with a matchup between Magomedov and Pyfer, which I think should be priced much closer to a pick’em.
These two have wildly contrasting fight styles, with Magomedov leaning heavily on kickboxing and his ground game, landing 2.65 takedowns per fight with a spotless 100% takedown defence.
On the other side, Pyfer is a brawler with knockout power, throwing 3.74 sig. strikes per minute.
Magomedov will want to keep his distance from Pyfer’s combinations, relying on his strong leg kick while eying the chance for a takedown.
Both fighters stand at 6-foot-2, with Magomedov having a slight reach advantage and leg reach.
The Russian has won three straight fights, with two coming via decision, quieting some concerns about his cardio. As long as Magomedov can sustain Pyfer’s early onslaught, I like his chances of turning this into a slog and winning on points.
One wide receiver, one tight end and one running back make up these NFL Week 5 prop bets.
The pregame narrative: Ladd McConkey’s slow start has led to a very attainable receiving total against the Washington Commanders. I expect the Los Angeles Chargers wideout to ball out, and also expect Detroit’s Sam LaPorta to have an outsized role against the Cincinnati Bengals.
Check out my top Week 5 NFL prop bets, featuring a pick on New York Jets running back Breece Hall.
Best bet: McConkey over 58.5 receiving yards (-118)
Backing McConkey might seem risky on a surface level.
The sophomore has 16 catches on 27 targets for 174 yards through four games, ranking third in each of those categories behind Quentin Johnston and Keenan Allen.
But McConkey still leads the Chargers in route participation (88.7%) and has a great matchup.
Washington’s defence has allowed the ninth-most receiving yards per game to wide receivers (154.75) and ranks 28th in EPA per pass.
McConkey plays primarily out of the slot, meaning he’ll avoid lockdown corner Marshon Lattimore, who has played 88% of snaps as the right cornerback so far, per FantasyPoints.com.
McConkey has gone under this mark in three straight games, but he cleared it in 10 of 12 games prior.
This is a supremely talented player, and I think the market has overreacted to a slow start.
Key stat: McConkey is averaging 72.4 receiving yards per game in his career.
Best NFL picks
LaPorta over 39.5 receiving yards (-118): There’s so much star power in Detroit that anyone could pop on a week-to-week basis. That said, this seems like a smash spot for LaPorta.
Cincinnati’s defence is horrendous and has been abused by tight ends.
The Bengals have allowed the fourth-most catches (40) and ninth-most yards (244) to the position group so far.
LaPorta hasn’t done anything special through four games. He’s averaging 44.3 receiving yards per game while going 1-3 against this line, landing on 39 yards in his last outing.
He also closed the 2024 season by clearing this line in six straight. Expect an above-average performance.
Hall over 26.5 receiving yards (-113): I’m backing Justin Fields to throw two touchdowns at +190, and in a perfect world, one of those will come on a wheel route to Hall.
The dynamic tailback is always active in the passing game, logging the fourth-most receptions among RBs last year (57).
This year, he’s averaging 27.0 receiving yards.
Hall and the Jets take on a Dallas Cowboys defence that has allowed the third-most receiving yards per game to RBs (57.0).
Each of the four starting RBs to face Dallas has cleared this line.
One wide receiver, one tight end and one running back make up these NFL Week 5 prop bets.
The pregame narrative: Ladd McConkey’s slow start has led to a very attainable receiving total against the Washington Commanders. I expect the Los Angeles Chargers wideout to ball out, and also expect Detroit’s Sam LaPorta to have an outsized role against the Cincinnati Bengals.
Check out my top Week 5 NFL prop bets, featuring a pick on New York Jets running back Breece Hall.
NFL prop bets: Week 5
Best bet: McConkey over 55.5 receiving yards (-112)
Backing McConkey might seem risky on a surface level.
The sophomore has 16 catches on 27 targets for 174 yards through four games, ranking third in each of those categories behind Quentin Johnston and Keenan Allen.
But McConkey still leads the Chargers in route participation (88.7%) and has a great matchup.
Washington’s defence has allowed the ninth-most receiving yards per game to wide receivers (154.75) and ranks 28th in EPA per pass.
McConkey plays primarily out of the slot, meaning he’ll avoid lockdown corner Marshon Lattimore, who has played 88% of snaps as the right cornerback so far, per FantasyPoints.com.
McConkey has gone under this mark in three straight games, but he cleared it in 11 of 12 games prior.
This is a supremely talented player, and I think the market has overreacted to a slow start.
Key stat: McConkey is averaging 72.4 receiving yards per game in his career.
LaPorta over 38.5 receiving yards (-115): There’s so much star power in Detroit that anyone could pop on a week-to-week basis. That said, this seems like a smash spot for LaPorta.
Cincinnati’s defence is horrendous and has been abused by tight ends.
The Bengals have allowed the fourth-most catches (40) and ninth-most yards (244) to the position group so far.
LaPorta hasn’t done anything special through four games. He’s averaging 44.3 receiving yards per game while going 1-3 against this line, landing on 39 yards in his last outing.
He also closed the 2024 season by clearing this line in six straight. Expect an above-average performance.
Hall over 23.5 receiving yards (-113): I’m backing Justin Fields to throw two touchdowns at +138, and in a perfect world, one of those will come on a wheel route to Hall.
The dynamic tailback is always active in the passing game, logging the fourth-most receptions among RBs last year (57).
This year, he’s averaging 27.0 receiving yards and has gone 3-1 against this line.
Hall and the Jets take on a Dallas Cowboys defence that has allowed the third-most receiving yards per game to RBs (57.0).
Each of the four starting RBs to face Dallas has cleared this line.
The pregame narrative: McBride and the Arizona Cardinals are expected to blow out the bottom-feeding Tennessee Titans at home. I’m backing him to find the end zone at plus money.
Check out my top Week 5 NFL TD picks, featuring Miami Dolphins RB Ollie Gordon II.
Alvin Kamara and Trey McBride headline this week’s NFL TD picks.
The pregame narrative: Kamara and the winless New Orleans Saints are favoured at home against the New York Giants. McBride and the Arizona Cardinals, meanwhile, are expected to blow out the bottom-feeding Tennessee Titans. I’m backing both to find the end zone at plus money.
Check out my top Week 5 NFL TD picks, featuring Miami Dolphins RB Ollie Gordon II.
NFL TD picks: Week 5
Best bet: Kamara to score (+100)
You might think the problem with this wager is getting Kamara close to the end zone. After all, New Orleans is winless while averaging the fifth-fewest points per game (16.5).
But in reality, the Saints can move the ball just fine — they just have a terrible red zone offence.
11th in red zone trips per game (3.5)
22nd in red zone TD percentage (50.0%)
That’s still not ideal, but it tells me Kamara will get some chances against a bad Giants defence.
New York is allowing the fourth-most rushing yards per game (153.0) while sitting last in EPA per rush and rush success rate, per RBSDM.com
Kellen Moore would be wise to lean on the team’s run game once they get into scoring position.
And Kamara is still the bell cow of this offence, logging 68% of all RB carries. He outpaces second-string Kendre Miller in red zone carries and touches within the 10 and five-yard line, too.
Key stat: The Giants have allowed 1.5 rushing TDs per game (third-most in the NFL).
McBride anytime TD (+180): Marvin Harrison Jr. had his mini breakout game during Thursday Night Football in Week 4, but McBride is still the needle mover on Arizona’s offence.
The third-year TE leads the team in snaps (236), targets (35), receptions (24), and receiving yards (234).
That’s only materialized in a single touchdown, which should change against a truly awful team.
The Titans are 0-4, are giving up 30 points per game, and were just out-possessed by almost 40 minutes by the Houston Texans in a 26-0 loss.
Gordon II anytime TD (+265): I love the value here on Gordon to find the end zone.
The rookie is cutting into DeVon Achane’s role as a lead back, equalling the number of red zone carries (six apiece) over the last two weeks.
In that span, he has two carries inside the five-yard line, while Achane has zero.
But this is more about Miami’s opponent, the Carolina Panthers.
Carolina was the worst team against the run last year, and hasn’t improved through a month this season.
The Panthers rank 24th in EPA per rush and are giving up 1.3 rushing TDs per game (fifth-most in the NFL).
A must-see title rematch between Magomed Ankalaev and Alex Pereira headlines Saturday’s stacked UFC 320 card.
The pre-fight narrative: Ankalaev snatched the light heavyweight crown from Pereira in March, handing the Brazilian his first loss in the weight class, and is favoured to win Round 2. Before that, Merab Dvalishvili defends his bantamweight title against Cory Sandhagen.
Check out the odds, fight card and my UFC 320 predictions for the Oct. 4 fight in Las Vegas.
UFC 320 predictions
Best bet: Dvalishvili to win, Ankalaev/Pereira over 2.5 rounds (+104)
I’m looking to get in on the main and co-main events with this plus-money parlay.
Let’s start with Dvalishvili, who has torn apart the bantamweight division during his 13-fight winning streak.
It hasn’t been the flashiest run — only two of those came via finish — but it sure has been effective.
The Georgian is known for his elite ground game, but is also a strong standup fighter. Dvalishvili stands at 5-foot-6, five inches shorter than Sandhagen, but is almost equal in reach.
He should neutralize the Americans’ brawling tendencies before landing one of many takedowns.
Sandhagen was bullied by Umar Nurmagomedov when they battled in 2024, getting taken down five times and losing handily.
Dvalishvili also faced Nurmagomedov and dominated him, so I really don’t think this will be close.
Now we can turn to the main event.
Ankalaev picked up a gritty, five-round win over Pereira when they last fought. He went 0-for-12 on takedowns and turned the tide of the fight after the first few rounds with strong striking instead.
I think the Dagestani will have more success wrestling in this matchup, after insisting he was gassed in the first meeting because of fasting during Ramadan.
If that holds true, a methodical ground game would bleed time off the clock.
Pereira is a KO machine and will certainly look to land a big combo early, but Ankalaev is a sneakily strong striker and has never been put out in his career.
Key stat: Six of Ankalaev’s last nine fights have gone the distance.
Magomedov to win (+205): The main card opens with a matchup between Magomedov and Pyfer, which I think should be priced much closer to a pick’em.
These two have wildly contrasting fight styles, with Magomedov leaning heavily on kickboxing and his ground game, landing 2.65 takedowns per fight with a spotless 100% takedown defence.
On the other side, Pyfer is a brawler with knockout power, throwing 3.74 sig. strikes per minute.
Magomedov will want to keep his distance from Pyfer’s combinations, relying on his strong leg kick while eying the chance for a takedown.
Both fighters stand at 6-foot-2, with Magomedov having a slight reach advantage and leg reach.
The Russian has won three straight fights, with two coming via decision, quieting some concerns about his cardio. As long as Magomedov can sustain Pyfer’s early onslaught, I like his chances of turning this into a slog and winning on points.
The NFL calendar has flipped to October, meaning we’ll have four teams on bye this week.
The Week 5 narrative: Chicago, Atlanta, Green Bay and Pittsburgh are resting up, but there are still some good matchups. Ten of the 14 games on tap are projected to finish within a touchdown, including a battle between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Seattle Seahawks, where our staff is leaning heavily toward the road side.
Check out our staff’s Week 5 NFL ATS picks for predictions on every game.
NFL ATS picks: Week 5
NorthStar Bets’ Avery Perri, Jordan Horrobin, Spencer Closs, Chris Toman and Steven Psihogios offer up their Week 4 NFL ATS picks for all 16 games.
NFL odds as of 10 a.m. ET on Thursday, Oct. 2, 2025.
NorthStar Bets line: Rams -8.5 Horrobin says: Los Angeles opened as a 3-point favourite, but injuries to Brock Purdy, Ricky Pearsall and Jauan Jennings shifted the line drastically. I think the pendulum has swung too far, and I’ll back a San Francisco squad that ranks in the top seven in scoring and total defence. Dating back to 2019, Kyle Shanahan’s 49ers have covered this number in 13 straight games against the Rams.
NorthStar Bets line: Vikings -3.5 Closs says: In last week’s international game, Minnesota lost by three to Pittsburgh and allowed backup RB Kenneth Gainwell to post a career high 99 yards and two touchdowns. The Browns will start rookie QB Dillon Gabriel, but should run their offence through Quinshon Judkins. The first-round pick leads first-year rushers in yards per game (79.0). He looks like a future bell cow on offence, and should carve up the Vikings’ defence.
NorthStar Bets line: Cowboys -2.5 Perri says: Dallas fought tooth and nail to earn a tie as a touchdown underdog against the Packers in Week 4, and I think its offence should explode in the Meadowlands. New York is 0-4, losing by an average of 7.5 points so far. Its defence is among the worst in football, ceding the fourth-most points while ranking 28th in EPA per play.
NorthStar Bets line: Eagles -4 Toman says: Denver hasn’t done enough for me against a much softer schedule than what Philadelphia has seen. The Eagles matchups have been anything but soft — Cowboys, Rams, Chiefs, Bucs — and they’ve come away undefeated, winning by four-plus points three times. While the Broncos’ defence has been strong, they’ve been able to prop up those numbers against two doormats (Titans, Browns). Now they get a 4-0 Eagles team averaging 27.0 points per game, seventh in the NFL.
NorthStar Bets line: Texans -1 Horrobin says: The Texans beat up on a terrible Tennessee squad at home, but they’ve scored just 19 points across two road games so far. Sure, Baltimore is 1-3, but its gauntlet schedule included matchups against the Bills (road), Lions and Chiefs (road). Lamar Jackson’s absence is an obvious concern, but Cooper Rush started eight NFL games last year … and the Ravens still have Derrick Henry.
NorthStar Bets line: Colts -6.5 Horrobin says: One touchdown-sized blunder from Adonai Mitchell was the difference between the Colts and the Rams last week, and I don’t think that affects Indy’s ability to beat up on lesser opponents at home. Las Vegas is a lesser opponent, entering on a three-game losing streak (SU and ATS). Ashton Jeanty looked great last week, but he’s still not on Jonathan Taylor’s level.
NorthStar Bets line: Dolphins -1 Toman says: Miami finally got a win, but at the expense of a major loss. Tyreek Hill is done for the year, creating a huge hole for the Dolphins’ passing game, which has been abysmal behind Tua Tagovailoa. Their defence has been shredded, too. Much of the same can be said about the Panthers. But Carolina is home after three of four weeks on the road, giving me confidence in a bounce back after getting dismantled by the Patriots (who beat Miami in Week 2) last Sunday.
NorthStar Bets line: Saints -2 Closs says: The Giants are coming off a huge upset over the Chargers in Jaxon Dart’s first start at QB. He provides stability to a defence that has allowed 22 or fewer points in three of four games. The Saints have scored 21 or fewer points in every game so far and concede the third most points per game (30.3). There’s little upside to the offence, and the defence is Swiss cheese. I’ll happily back the Giants as the underdog.
Buccaneers vs. Seahawks (Sunday, Oct. 5: 4:05 p.m. ET)
NorthStar Bets line: Seahawks -3.5 Closs says: The Buccaneers had a lot go wrong last week against the Eagles. They had a blocked punt returned for a score and were down 24-6 at halftime. Tampa almost came back but fell short in the end, 31-25. They are still 3-1 and 2-0 on the road. Seattle is also 3-1, but I believe its offence is a tier below Tampa Bay’s. I love the underdog value here.
Titans vs. Cardinals (Sunday, Oct. 5: 4:05 p.m. ET)
NorthStar Bets line: Cardinals -7.5 Horrobin says: The Titans had 175 yards and zero points last week, and now they’re back on the road with a rest disadvantage. Woof. After a pair of divisional losses by a combined four points, the Cardinals should be hungry to author a statement win in the desert. Tennessee is in the bottom five in scoring on both sides of the ball.
NorthStar Bets line: Lions -10.5 Perri says: The Bengals quit on Monday Night Football, and have been outscored 75-13 in Jake Browning’s two starts. Dan Campbell’s group will be frothing at the mouth to play a team this directionless with a rest advantage. Detroit is averaging 41.3 PPG in its last three games and should cruise past the 30-point threshold again.
Commanders vs. Chargers (Sunday, Oct. 5: 4:25 p.m. ET)
NorthStar Bets line: Chargers -3 Perri says: Los Angeles’ star left tackle Joe Alt is doubtful to play on Sunday, which doesn’t bode well against Washington’s defence. The Commanders rank 13th in pass rush win rate and third in run stop win rate, per ESP.com. Jayden Daniels is back under centre, and I think he can lead Washington to a win as a road underdog.
NorthStar Bets line: Bills -8 Closs says: Drake Maye has been incredible as a sophomore. So far, he has 988 passing yards, seven TDs and two INTs, with a 109.4 passer rating. Stats very similar to MVP favourite Josh Allen’s. Buffalo is 4-0 but 0-2 ATS in the past two games. The Bills had trouble putting away the Dolphins and Cardinals, and the 3-1 Patriots appear to be a much better team to this point. New England is 2-2 against Buffalo over the past two seasons.
NorthStar Bets line: Chiefs -3.5 Perri says: Kansas City is coming off a huge 37-20 win over Baltimore, but I think this matchup bodes well stylistically for Jacksonville. The Jaguars have revitalized their run game, and the Chiefs’ defence has been awful against the run, ranking 28th in yards per attempt (4.9) and 31st in EPA per rush. Jacksonville is 3-1 ATS and should keep this close at home.
