The Toronto Blue Jays have another crack at eliminating the New York Yankees from the ALDS when they face off in the Bronx on Wednesday.
The pregame narrative: Did the series just flip on Aaron Judge’s bat, or can Toronto push through the adversity to clinch an ALCS spot? The odds suggest we’ll see a winner-take-all Game 5 on Friday. Toronto is an underdog tonight as it turns to its bullpen against New York’s Cam Schlittler, who is fresh off a heroic wild-card effort.
Check out my Blue Jays vs. Yankees picks for Game 4 in the Bronx, featuring prop recommendations on Schlittler, Judge, and Daulton Varsho.
Blue Jays vs. Yankees picks
Best bet: Jays F5 innings tie no bet (+125)
It’s time to see what Toronto is made of after blowing a 6-1 early lead yesterday.
John Schneider used six bullpen arms in the loss, but each of them will be ready to go today. Louis Varland, who gave up the collosoal game-tying HR to Judge, will start.
I can’t blame Varland for that piece of world-class hitting (more on Judge later), and expect him to shove. The fireballing righty had given up just one run in nine prior appearances while striking out 12.
But this pick is more about Toronto’s offence and Schlittler.
The Jays’ bats have been red-hot to start this series, scoring a combined 14 runs in the first five innings. Overall, it averaged the eighth-most F5 runs in MLB this season.
Schlittler is fresh off throwing eight scoreless innings against the Red Sox with 12 Ks. But is that because he’s really good, or because Boston is really mediocre? Probably a bit of both.
All I know is that Toronto has roughed him up twice this year:
- Sept. 5: 1.2 IP, 5 H, 2 BB, 4 R
- July 22: 5.0 IP, 7 H, 3 BB, 2 R
In those two outings, the Jays hit a combined .435 off him with as many walks as strikeouts (four).
The righty has command issues, and Toronto is one of the best teams in the majors at making opponents work deep into counts.
I think the Jays can take an early lead in Game 4.
Key stat: Toronto is 6-1-1 against this line in its last eight games.
MLB postseason predictions
Judge over 1.5 bases (-117): Judge took a 100 mph fastball on the hands and belted it off the foul pole last night. It was one of the most clutch hits you’ll ever see.
In the postseason, he’s batting an otherworldly .500/.577/.727 and is 5-1 against this line.
A lot of those hits came in low-leverage situations, but Judge showed up in the bright lights yesterday, and I have to believe he’ll keep things rolling.
Back the AL’s total base leader to stay hot.
Schlittler under 4.5 Ks (+105): Fading Schlittler might seem scary. After all, the rookie has cleared this mark in almost every start of his young MLB career, going 12-3 against this line.
But two of the outliers came against the Blue Jays, and I think Toronto gives him more trouble tonight.
- Schlittler has a 14.3% K rate against the Jays and a 27.6% K rate overall.
- Toronto has the lowest K rate in the majors, and held two strong swing-and-miss arms — Max Fried and Carlos Rodon — well below this number.
- Those southpaws combined for three Ks in 5.1 IP while giving up 13 runs.
New York would love to get another eight-inning gem from Schlittler, but I just don’t see that happening. Aaron Boone will be ready to use his bullpen at the first sign of real stress after how well it performed last night.
Blue Jays best bet
Varsho over 0.5 hits (-122): Bettors won’t have to worry about Varsho being yanked for a platoon advantage later in the game, because the centre fielder’s gold glove is his greatest asset.
But let’s talk about his hitting for a second.
Varsho is 7-for-12 this series and is now batting .419 over his last eight games. In that span, he is 7-1 against this line.
The stocky outfielder is seeing the ball well right now and recorded a hit against Schlittler on Sept. 5.
Blue Jays vs. Yankees picks made at 8:45 a.m. on 10/08/2025.
