Avery Perri

Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.

Mariners vs. Blue Jays Game 1 ALCS best bets: Bet on Guerrero and Santander to lead a blowout

Mariners vs. Blue Jays best bets

The Toronto Blue Jays and Seattle Mariners battle for a World Series spot, with each team trying to draw first blood in Game 1 at Rogers Centre on Sunday.

The pregame narrative: Toronto has a nice rest advantage after clinching its ALCS ticket on Wednesday, and is favoured to win the series opener behind Kevin Gausman. Seattle had to use seven pitchers in its 15-inning Game 5 win over the Detroit Tigers, and will have few options to turn to in Game 1.

Check out my Mariners vs. Blue Jays best bets for ALDS Game 1, featuring prop bets on Anthony Santander and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Mariners vs. Blue Jays best bets

Best bet: Blue Jays over 4.5 runs (+123)

This might seem like a bold play given Seattle’s elite pitching depth, but have you seen what Toronto’s done in the postseason so far?

  • 8.5 runs per game (first)
  • .338 batting average (first)
  • .601 slugging percentage (first)
  • 16.1% strikeout rate (first)

Are the Jays due for a little regression? Probably. But I don’t think it happens on Sunday.

Seattle was forced to empty the tank against Detroit in the final game of the NLDS. It deployed seven pitchers and three starters (George Kirby, Luis Castillo, and Logan Gilbert) in the win.

That means the only fully-rested starter is Miller, who has been awful this season.

Miller owns a 5.68 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP and ranks in the 25th percentile or worse in xBA, xSLG, K rate and hard-hit rate, per Baseball Savant.

MLB.com predicts Miller will start Game 1, and I think Toronto could clear this line before he exits the game.

Key stat: Toronto’s lineup is batting .333 with a .538 SLG against Miller in 39 combined at-bats.

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Other MLB postseason predictions

Guerrero to score (+100): I really can’t believe Guerrero is plus money to score.

Toronto’s $500 million man lived up to the hype against the New York Yankees in the ALDS. He posted a .529/.550/.1.059 slash line through four games, belting three home runs and scoring five runs.

Seattle will probably want to pitch around Guerrero, which is fine, because a walk will put us in a great position here.

But if the Mariners try to pitch to him, even better.

Behind Guerrero is a red-hot lineup featuring names like Nathan Lukes, Daulton Varsho and Ernie Clement swinging the bat well.

Bo Bichette also might get the start, which is intriguing.

Santander over 1.5 bases (+170): If Bichette starts, Santander may start the game on the bench. So keep an eye on that leading up to game time.

But if the power-hitting outfielder plays, I expect fireworks.

Santander had just two singles in the ALDS, but put together some quality at-bats, signifying to me that he’s seeing the ball well.

He’s seeing 4.23 pitches per at-bat this season, which is second among Jays players on the ALCS roster.

Santander has also had Miller’s number, going 4-for-10 against the righty with a home run. He has a stellar .835 xSLG in those at-bats.

Mariners vs. Blue Jays best bets as of 1:15 p.m. on 10/11/2025.

Lions vs. Chiefs SNF Week 6 SGP predictions: Back Jahmyr Gibbs and Patrick Mahomes at +310

Lions vs. Chiefs predictions

The Detroit Lions and Kansas City Chiefs meet for a primetime matchup at Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday Night Football.

The pregame narrative: Detroit has been the hottest team in football over the last four weeks and owns an NFC-best +62 point differential. But the Lions are still a slim road underdog against a Chiefs team that is off to the worst start in the Patrick Mahomes era.

Check out my +310 Lions vs. Chiefs same-game parlay predictions for Week 5 below, featuring Mahomes and Jahmyr Gibbs

Lions vs. Chiefs SGP predictions

SGP: Lions +7.5 | Gibbs 70+ rushing yards | Mahomes 275+ passing yards (+310)

Weekly prizes & bet boosts: Beat the Spread Challenge: ENTER NOW!

Lions +7.5 (-315): I backed Detroit to win this game outright, so I am naturally all over this alternate line.

Here’s why:

  • The Lions are averaging 40.3 points and 394.8 yards during their four-game winning streak.
  • In that span, they rank first in offensive EPA per play and second in defensive EPA per play, per RBSDM.com.
  • The Chiefs’ run defence ranks 26th in yards per carry, 30th in rush success rate, and 31st in EPA per rush.

Detroit loves to run the football, opting to keep the ball on the ground 49.67% of the time. That’s the third-highest run rate in football.

So stylistically, this is a great matchup for the Lions.

And that’s not even to mention Kansas City’s slow start. The Chiefs are 2-3 with losses to the Jacksonville Jaguars, Philadelphia Eagles and Los Angeles Chargers.

I can’t see Dan Campbell’s squad getting blown out in primetime.

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Sunday Night Football SGP picks

Gibbs 70+ rushing yards (-134): You could make a good argument for either Gibbs or David Montgomery clearing their rushing total.

But I’ll roll with the younger back for a few reasons.

Gibbs had a tough first game against the Green Bay Packers, but so did everyone on the Lions. Since then, he’s averaging 75.3 yards at 5.01 yards per carry.

That includes a 94-yard performance against an elite Cleveland Browns run defence.

As mentioned, KC really struggles to stop the run, so I expect the tailback to get a boatload of carries.

Mahomes 275+ passing yards (-105): Ideally, Detroit is running away with this game (literally and figuratively), forcing the Chiefs into a pass-heavy game plan.

The two-time MVP is only 1-4 against this line, but I still think he’s trending toward clearing this total:

  • Mahomes has elevated his play lately, throwing for 588 yards and five touchdowns over his last two games.
  • He just threw for a season-high 318 yards against the Jaguars.
  • The QB is averaging 36.6 passing attempts per game, tied for the second-most in football.

Kareem Hunt and Isiah Pacheco have been awful on the ground this year, and I don’t expect either RB to get things going against Detroit’s run defence.

Look for Mahomes to throw the ball a ton.

Lions vs. Chiefs predictions made at 12 p.m. on 10/11/2025.

Maple Leafs vs. Red Wings picks Oct. 11: Back Toronto and Morgan Rielly on Saturday

Red Wings vs. Maple Leafs picks

The Toronto Maple Leafs and Detroit Red Wings kick off the first leg of a home-and-home during Hockey Night in Canada on Saturday.

The pregame narrative: Toronto is a road favourite against its Original Six rival after winning its season opener against the Montreal Canadiens. Detroit also played Montreal in its first game and lost handily at Little Caesars Arena.

Check out my Maple Leafs vs. Red Wings picks, featuring a prop bet on Morgan Rielly.

Maple Leafs vs. Red Wings picks

Best bet: Maple Leafs 60-minute moneyline (+100)

These teams just aren’t on the same level.

Toronto is fresh off winning the Atlantic Division by posting a league-best 52 wins. Detroit, meanwhile, missed out on the playoffs for a ninth-straight season.

All in all, there was a 22-point delta between the rivals in the standings.

The Leafs are now without Mitch Marner, which certainly hurts, but I still think they’re much better than the Red Wings — especially in net.

Anthony Stolarz looked great on Wednesday, turning aside 29 of 31 shots in the Leafs’ 5-2 win.

He was one of the best goaltenders in the league last year, ranking first in save percentage (.926) and third in GAA (2.14). Toronto is also returning its entire defence corps, so I’m confident the Leafs can keep scoring down.

On the other end is Cam Talbot, who gets the nod after John Gibson got shelled by the Canadiens in Detroit’s first game.

Talbot ranked outside of the top 25 in GAA and SV% last year, and had an .817 SV% in three games against Toronto (all losses).

Key stat: The Maple Leafs went 3-1 against the Red Wings last year, winning twice in regulation.

Maple Leafs prop prediction

Rielly to record a point (+105): There was a lot of buzz around Rielly heading into camp this year, as the veteran defenceman looks to rebound from a pretty disappointing 2024-25 season.

Team sources said Rielly was in “the best shape of his life,” and we got a pretty good indication that might be true after one game.

  • The 31-year-old scored the game-winning goal in Toronto’s opener and added an assist while firing five shots on net.
  • Rielly logged over 20 minutes of ice time and also led the Leafs in chances for (i.e shot attempts) with nine.

With Marner leaving, Rielly is back on the top power-play. Playing with Auston Matthews, William Nylander, and Co. on that unit puts him in a good spot to nab a point.

Detroit allowed the 12th-most chances per game (59.94) last season.

Maple Leafs vs. Red Wings picks made at 9:45 a.m. ET 10/11/2025.

Maple Leafs vs. Red Wings picks Oct. 11: Back Toronto and Morgan Rielly on Saturday

Red Wings vs. Maple Leafs picks

The Toronto Maple Leafs and Detroit Red Wings kick off the first leg of a home-and-home during Hockey Night in Canada on Saturday.

The pregame narrative: Toronto is a road favourite against its Original Six rival after winning its season opener against the Montreal Canadiens. Detroit also played Montreal in its first game and lost handily at Little Caesars Arena.

Check out my Maple Leafs vs. Red Wings picks, featuring a prop bet on Morgan Rielly.

Maple Leafs vs. Red Wings picks

Best bet: Maple Leafs 60-minute moneyline (+110)

These teams just aren’t on the same level.

Toronto is fresh off winning the Atlantic Division by posting a league-best 52 wins. Detroit, meanwhile, missed out on the playoffs for a ninth-straight season.

All in all, there was a 22-point delta between the rivals in the standings.

The Leafs are now without Mitch Marner, which certainly hurts, but I still think they’re much better than the Red Wings — especially in net.

Anthony Stolarz looked great on Wednesday, turning aside 29 of 31 shots in the Leafs’ 5-2 win.

He was one of the best goaltenders in the league last year, ranking first in save percentage (.926) and third in GAA (2.14). Toronto is also returning its entire defence corps, so I’m confident the Leafs can keep scoring down.

On the other end is Cam Talbot, who gets the nod after John Gibson got shelled by the Canadiens in Detroit’s first game.

Talbot ranked outside of the top 25 in GAA and SV% last year, and had an .817 SV% in three games against Toronto (all losses).

Key stat: The Maple Leafs went 3-1 against the Red Wings last year, winning twice in regulation.

Embed: #119119

Maple Leafs prop prediction

Rielly over 1.5 shots on goal (+110): There was a lot of buzz around Rielly heading into camp this year, as the veteran defenceman looks to rebound from a pretty disappointing 2024-25 season.

Team sources said Rielly was in “the best shape of his life,” and we got a pretty good indication that might be true after one game.

  • The 31-year-old scored the game-winning goal in Toronto’s opener and added an assist while firing five shots on net.
  • Rielly logged over 20 minutes of ice time and also led the Leafs in chances for (i.e shot attempts) with nine.

He should blow past this line if he has anywhere near that type of shot volume tonight.

Detroit allowed the 12th-most chances per game (59.94) last season.

Maple Leafs vs. Red Wings picks made at 9:45 a.m. ET 10/11/2025.

Best NFL Week 6 prop bets: Bet on Davante Adams, Ladd McConkey and Christian McCaffrey

NFL prop bets

A trio of big names headline these NFL Week 6 prop bets.

The pregame narrative: Davante Adams and Ladd McConkey have been the No. 2 options on their respective teams so far. But that’s led to a pair of manageable lines I want to exploit. Elsewhere, I expect Christian McCaffrey to be active as a pass catcher against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Check out my top Week 6 NFL prop bets.

NFL prop bets: Week 6

Best bet: Adams over 63.5 receiving yards (-118)

The Baltimore Ravens’ defence is in a tailspin, and a bad result on Sunday could very well cost coordinator Zach Orr his job.

That’s no exaggeration. Just look at how the unit has performed so far:

  • 32nd in points per game (35.4)
  • 31st in yards per game (408.8)
  • 30th in EPA per play (+0.186)
  • 29th in EPA per dropback (+0.244)

Enter the Los Angeles Rams, who have a rest advantage after playing on Thursday Night Football.

You could make a good argument for any player to smash their receiving or rushing total, but I think Adams stands out for a few reasons.

According to Rotowire, the veteran ranks in the 90th percentile or higher in air yards per game (109.6), team target rate (25.4%) and targets per route (27.1%) among all WRs.

Puka Nacua is the top dog, but there’s plenty of love to go around.

Key stat: The Ravens are allowing the ninth-most receiving yards per game to WRs (159), per Football Reference.

Best NFL picks

McConkey over 55.5 receiving yards (-118): McConkey is having a very slow start to the season after a great rookie campaign.

  • 2024: 5.1 catches and 71.8 yards per game
  • 2025: 4.2 catches and 42.6 yards per game

The emergence of Quentin Johnston as a reliable target and the acquisition of Keenan Allen have really cut into his production.

But McConkey still leads the squad in route participation, and Johnston (hamstring) was limited at practice on Wednesday.

Also, Omarion Hampton is on injured reserve, which should mean a more pass-heavy attack for Jim Harbaugh’s group.

Add in the fact that McConkey is going up against a Miami Dolphins defence ranking 30th in EPA per dropback, and I think we have a recipe for a breakout game.

Christian McCaffrey over 6.5 receptions (-106): This type of line is typically reserved for star wide receivers, but you could argue CMC is position-agnostic.

He has the second-most receptions (39) and sixth-most receiving yards (387) among all players in the NFL.

McCaffrey is 3-2 against this line, landing on exactly six receptions in both outlying games.

I don’t think the San Francisco 49ers will be able to run the ball well against Tampa Bay’s defence (No. 1 in EPA per rush).

That just means Kyle Shanahan will have to find other ways to get the ball into the hands of his best playmaker.

NFL prop bets made at 2:30 p.m. ET on 10/09/2025.

Brewers vs. Cubs Game 4 NLDS SGP predictions: Bet on Milwaukee to advance in +525 wager

Brewers vs. Cubs predictions

The Milwaukee Brewers have another chance to close out the Chicago Cubs and clinch their NLCS spot on Thursday.

The pregame narrative: Chicago staved off elimination yesterday with a 4-3 win and is a slim underdog today. The Cubs turn to lefty Matthew Boyd, who got shelled in Game 1 of this series on Saturday. Milwaukee counters with its own ace, Freddy Peralta.

Check out my Brewers vs. Cubs predictions for Oct. 9, featuring prop bets on Andrew Vaughn and Kyle Tucker.

Brewers vs. Cubs predictions

Parlay: Brewers moneyline | Vaughn over 1.5 bases | Tucker over 0.5 hits (+525)

Brewers moneyline (-122): We saw this pitching matchup unfold on Saturday, and the results were ugly. on Chicago’s side

Boyd gave up four hits and six runs (two earned) in 0.2 IP, and the Brewers went on to win 9-3. Peralta was much better, throwing 5.2 innings of two-run ball and striking out nine.

Can we expect a bounce-back effort out of Chicago’s southpaw at home? I doubt it.

Boyd has been shaky from Aug. 1 onward, sporting a 4.89 ERA over 12 starts with a miserable 18.5% K rate. The Cubs lost seven of those games.

Chicago’s active lineup has never been able to figure out Peralta. In 228 combined plate appearances, the group is hitting .161 and slugging .327 with a 29.8 K%.

I expect the MLB-best Brewers to move on.

Embed: #119004

MLB SGP legs

Vaughn over 1.5 bases (+148): I backed Vaughn to go over 1.5 bases against a lefty (Shota Imanaga) in Game 2, and he delivered with a towering three-run blast.

It seems like a no-brainer to go back to him tonight at these odds.

  • The first baseman closed the year on a tear, putting forth a .368/.433/.509 slash line in September.
  • He’s batting .403 with a 1.064 OPS against LHPs since joining the Brewers.

Vaughn is only 3-for-12 against Boyd, but each of those hits went for extra bases (two doubles, one home run).

There’s also a projected 10 mph breeze blowing out to left field at Wrigley tonight, where Vaughn has pulled all but two of his 14 home runs this year.

Tucker over 0.5 hits (-175): Tucker is having a miserable postseason, and, if my projection holds true, will likely be playing his final game as a Cub.

But that’s neither here nor there — I expect the upcoming free agent to record a hit.

Tucker went 2-for-3 yesterday, raising his playoff batting average to .250. The lefty bat has a platoon advantage against Peralta tonight and has played him well over a solid sample.

He’s 5-for-13 against Peralta with just one strikeout and an 11.9% whiff rate.

Brewers vs. Cubs predictions as of 2:45 p.m. on 10/09/2025.

Best NFL Week 6 prop bets: Bet on Davante Adams, Ladd McConkey and Christian McCaffrey

NFL prop bets

A trio of big names headline these NFL Week 6 prop bets.

The pregame narrative: Davante Adams and Ladd McConkey have been the No. 2 options on their respective teams so far. But that’s led to a pair of manageable lines I want to exploit. Elsewhere, I expect Christian McCaffrey to be active as a pass catcher against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Check out my top Week 6 NFL prop bets.

NFL prop bets: Week 6

Best bet: Adams over 63.5 receiving yards (-115)

Weekly prizes & bet boosts: Beat the Spread Challenge: ENTER NOW!

The Baltimore Ravens’ defence is in a tailspin, and a bad result on Sunday could very well cost coordinator Zach Orr his job.

That’s no exaggeration. Just look at how the unit has performed so far:

  • 32nd in points per game (35.4)
  • 31st in yards per game (408.8)
  • 30th in EPA per play (+0.186)
  • 29th in EPA per dropback (+0.244)

Enter the Los Angeles Rams, who have a rest advantage after playing on Thursday Night Football.

You could make a good argument for any player to smash their receiving or rushing total, but I think Adams stands out for a few reasons.

According to Rotowire, the veteran ranks in the 90th percentile or higher in air yards per game (109.6), team target rate (25.4%) and targets per route (27.1%) among all WRs.

Puka Nacua is the top dog, but there’s plenty of love to go around.

Key stat: The Ravens are allowing the ninth-most receiving yards per game to WRs (159), per Football Reference.

Embed: #118995

Best NFL picks

McConkey over 52.5 receiving yards (-117): McConkey is having a very slow start to the season after a great rookie campaign.

  • 2024: 5.1 catches and 71.8 yards per game
  • 2025: 4.2 catches and 42.6 yards per game

The emergence of Quentin Johnston as a reliable target and the acquisition of Keenan Allen have really cut into his production.

But McConkey still leads the squad in route participation, and Johnston (hamstring) was limited at practice on Wednesday.

Also, Omarion Hampton is on injured reserve, which should mean a more pass-heavy attack for Jim Harbaugh’s group.

Add in the fact that McConkey is going up against a Miami Dolphins defence ranking 30th in EPA per dropback, and I think we have a recipe for a breakout game.

Christian McCaffrey over 6.5 receptions (+100): This type of line is typically reserved for star wide receivers, but you could argue CMC is position-agnostic.

He has the second-most receptions (39) and sixth-most receiving yards (387) among all players in the NFL.

McCaffrey is 3-2 against this line, landing on exactly six receptions in both outlying games.

I don’t think the San Francisco 49ers will be able to run the ball well against Tampa Bay’s defence (No. 1 in EPA per rush).

That just means Kyle Shanahan will have to find other ways to get the ball into the hands of his best playmaker.

NFL prop bets made at 2:30 p.m. ET on 10/09/2025.

Eagles vs. Giants TNF Week 6 SGP predictions: Bet on Saquon Barkley and Jalen Hurts at +460

Eagles vs. Giants predictions

The Philadelphia Eagles and New York Giants kick off NFL Week 6 with a divisional matchup on Thursday Night Football.

The pregame narrative: Philadelphia suffered its first loss since 2024 last week, but is still a 7.5-point favourite on the road in primetime. The Giants are 1-1 with rookie Jaxson Dart under centre, who has looked solid but is missing two of his top receiving targets (Malik Nabers, Darius Slayton).

Check out my Eagles vs. Giants same-game parlay predictions for Week 6, featuring Jalen Hurts and Saquon Barkley.

Eagles vs. Giants SGP predictions

SGP: Giants +14.5 | Hurts anytime TD | Barkley over 15.5 receiving yards (+460)

Weekly prizes & bet boosts: Beat the Spread Challenge. ENTER NOW!

Giants +14.5 (-286): The Eagles had their 10-game winning streak snapped last week, and now head to New York on short rest to face a divisional rival.

Philadelphia will be itching to get back in the win column, but I’m fairly confident the new-look Giants can cover this heavily-teased spread.

  • Nick Sirianni’s squad hasn’t blown out anyone yet, with four one-score wins and a +16 point differential.
  • Philly’s offence ranks 30th in total yards and 17th in EPA per play, per RBSDM.com. It will be without Pro Bowl guard Landon Dickerson (ankle)>

The Giants aren’t a good team, but have some new life under centre with Dart.

He led the squad to an impressive win over the Los Angeles Chargers, and had the Giants up 14-3 in his second start against the New Orleans Saints before things went sideways.

Banking two-plus touchdowns in a divisional matchup seems safe to me.

Embed: #118967

Thursday Night Football SGP picks

Hurts anytime TD (-124): Backing Hurts to score really boosts this parlay’s value up, thanks to some negative correlation.

I think New York will hang tough, but definitely don’t expect the Eagles to be shut out.

Thanks to the unstoppable tush push, Hurts has become the biggest goal-line threat in football. That will be harder to execute without Dickerson, but not impossible.

Hurts has already turned 12 red-zone carries into four touchdowns through five games.

And last year, two of his 19 touchdowns across the regular season and playoffs came in his lone game against the Giants.

Barkley over 15.5 receiving yards (-109): This seems like a pretty light line for Barkley, who admittedly has had spotty usage in the passing game this year.

The former Giant is 3-2 against this line, but 47 of his 58 receiving yards last week came on a single play.

Still, I think Philly will want to get the ball into his hands early and often on Thursday.

The Giants rank top 10 in pass rush win rate and run stop win rate, per ESPN. That should, in theory, mean Philly will execute plenty of quick passes.

Eagles vs. Giants predictions made at 11:00 a.m. on 10/05/2025.

Blue Jays vs. Yankees Game 4 ALDS picks: Bet on Judge and Varsho, fade Schlittler in the Bronx

Blue Jays vs. Yankees picks

The Toronto Blue Jays have another crack at eliminating the New York Yankees from the ALDS when they face off in the Bronx on Wednesday.

The pregame narrative: Did the series just flip on Aaron Judge’s bat, or can Toronto push through the adversity to clinch an ALCS spot? The odds suggest we’ll see a winner-take-all Game 5 on Friday. Toronto is an underdog tonight as it turns to its bullpen against New York’s Cam Schlittler, who is fresh off a heroic wild-card effort.

Check out my Blue Jays vs. Yankees picks for Game 4 in the Bronx, featuring prop recommendations on Schlittler, Judge, and Daulton Varsho.

Blue Jays vs. Yankees picks

Best bet: Jays F5 +0.5 (-106)

It’s time to see what Toronto is made of after blowing a 6-1 early lead yesterday.

John Schneider used six bullpen arms in the loss, but each of them will be ready to go today. Louis Varland, who gave up the collosoal game-tying HR to Judge, will start.

I can’t blame Varland for that piece of world-class hitting (more on Judge later), and expect him to shove. The fireballing righty had given up just one run in nine prior appearances while striking out 12.

But this pick is more about Toronto’s offence and Schlittler.

The Jays’ bats have been red-hot to start this series, scoring a combined 14 runs in the first five innings. Overall, it averaged the eighth-most F5 runs in MLB this season.

Schlittler is fresh off throwing eight scoreless innings against the Red Sox with 12 Ks. But is that because he’s really good, or because Boston is really mediocre? Probably a bit of both.

All I know is that Toronto has roughed him up twice this year:

  • Sept. 5: 1.2 IP, 5 H, 2 BB, 4 R
  • July 22: 5.0 IP, 7 H, 3 BB, 2 R

In those two outings, the Jays hit a combined .435 off him with as many walks as strikeouts (four).

The righty has command issues, and Toronto is one of the best teams in the majors at making opponents work deep into counts.

I think the Jays can take an early lead in Game 4.

Key stat: Toronto is 7-1 against this line in its last eight games.

MLB postseason predictions

Judge over 1.5 bases (-108): Judge took a 100 mph fastball on the hands and belted it off the foul pole last night. It was one of the most clutch hits you’ll ever see.

In the postseason, he’s batting an otherworldly .500/.577/.727 and is 5-1 against this line.

A lot of those hits came in low-leverage situations, but Judge showed up in the bright lights yesterday, and I have to believe he’ll keep things rolling.

Back the AL’s total base leader to stay hot.

Schlittler under 4.5 Ks (+105): Fading Schlittler might seem scary. After all, the rookie has cleared this mark in almost every start of his young MLB career, going 12-3 against this line.

But two of the outliers came against the Blue Jays, and I think Toronto gives him more trouble tonight.

  • Schlittler has a 14.3% K rate against the Jays and a 27.6% K rate overall.
  • Toronto has the lowest K rate in the majors, and held two strong swing-and-miss arms — Max Fried and Carlos Rodon — well below this number.
  • Those southpaws combined for three Ks in 5.1 IP while giving up 13 runs.

New York would love to get another eight-inning gem from Schlittler, but I just don’t see that happening. Aaron Boone will be ready to use his bullpen at the first sign of real stress after how well it performed last night.

Blue Jays best bet

Varsho over 0.5 hits (-130): Bettors won’t have to worry about Varsho being yanked for a platoon advantage later in the game, because the centre fielder’s gold glove is his greatest asset.

But let’s talk about his hitting for a second.

Varsho is 7-for-12 this series and is now batting .419 over his last eight games. In that span, he is 7-1 against this line.

The stocky outfielder is seeing the ball well right now and recorded a hit against Schlittler on Sept. 5.

Blue Jays vs. Yankees picks made at 8:45 a.m. on 10/08/2025.

Dodgers vs. Phillies Game 3 NLDS SGP predictions: Back Mookie Betts, Alec Bohm in +320 wager

Phillies vs. Dodgers predictions

The Los Angeles Dodgers can punch their NLCS ticket on Wednesday when they host the Philadelphia Phillies in Game 3 of the divisional series.

The pregame narrative: After picking up a pair of wins in Philadelphia, the Dodgers are favoured to complete the sweep tonight behind Yoshinobu Yamamoto. The Phillies turn to long-time stud Aaron Nola in this do-or-die matchup.

Check out my Dodgers vs. Phillies predictions for Oct. 8, featuring prop bets on Mookie Betts and Alec Bohm.

Dodgers vs. Phillies predictions

Parlay: Phillies +3.5 | Bohm to record a hit | Betts over 1.5 bases (+320)

Phillies +3.5 (-480): I don’t expect the 96-win Phillies to roll over tonight.

Philadelphia went 44-37 on the run line this year as visitors, with a +0.4 average margin of victory. It has covered this huge number in seven of eight games against L.A., including both this series.

Yamamoto is an elite arm who will likely keep scoring down, but I think Philly can hold serve.

Nola hasn’t had a great season by any means, but has held this Dodgers lineup to a collective .220 batting average over a 262 plate appearance sample size.

And it’s expected Ranger Suarez (3.20 ERA, 1.22 WHIP) will be available out of the pen if things get dicey.

Embed: #118957

MLB SGP legs

Bohm to record a hit (-175): Bohm is a solid candidate to get after Yamamoto.

The third baseman is just 1-for-6 in this series, but is coming off a scorching September where he slashed .345/.371/.534.

He is an elite contact hitter, ranking in the 80th percentile or higher in xBA (.284), whiff rate (14.6%) and K rate (16.3%). Pair that with a 20th percentile walk rate (5.3%) and you’ve got a great recipe for success.

Bohm is 0-for-3 against Yamamoto but has never struck out, and never whiffed on a pitch.

That gives me confidence he’ll put the ball in play and come through with a hit.

Betts over 1.5 bases (+108): Adding Betts to clear this total more than triples the SGPs value from -125 to +320. That’s all due to the negative correlation between him performing and Philly covering +3.5.

I already explained why I think Philadelphia can comfortably cover that number, and will let Betts’ stats speak for themselves:

  • In the playoffs: .389/.421/.556, three XBH
  • In September: .299/.343/.557, 12 XBH
  • vs. Nola: 9-for-23 (.391), one double, two HR

Betts is red-hot, facing a pitcher he’s dominated before, and has protection batting behind Shohei Ohtani. I love the value here.

Dodgers vs. Phillies predictions as of 10:30 a.m. on 10/08/2025.