The Detroit Lions and Kansas City Chiefs meet for a primetime matchup at Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday Night Football.
The pregame narrative: Detroit has been the hottest team in football over the last four weeks and owns an NFC-best +62 point differential. But the Lions are still a slim road underdog against a Chiefs team that is off to the worst start in the Patrick Mahomes era.
Check out my +310 Lions vs. Chiefs same-game parlay predictions for Week 5 below, featuring Mahomes and Jahmyr Gibbs
Lions vs. Chiefs SGP predictions
SGP: Lions +7.5 | Gibbs 70+ rushing yards | Mahomes 275+ passing yards (+310)
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Lions +7.5 (-315): I backed Detroit to win this game outright, so I am naturally all over this alternate line.
Here’s why:
- The Lions are averaging 40.3 points and 394.8 yards during their four-game winning streak.
- In that span, they rank first in offensive EPA per play and second in defensive EPA per play, per RBSDM.com.
- The Chiefs’ run defence ranks 26th in yards per carry, 30th in rush success rate, and 31st in EPA per rush.
Detroit loves to run the football, opting to keep the ball on the ground 49.67% of the time. That’s the third-highest run rate in football.
So stylistically, this is a great matchup for the Lions.
And that’s not even to mention Kansas City’s slow start. The Chiefs are 2-3 with losses to the Jacksonville Jaguars, Philadelphia Eagles and Los Angeles Chargers.
I can’t see Dan Campbell’s squad getting blown out in primetime.
Sunday Night Football SGP picks
Gibbs 70+ rushing yards (-134): You could make a good argument for either Gibbs or David Montgomery clearing their rushing total.
But I’ll roll with the younger back for a few reasons.
Gibbs had a tough first game against the Green Bay Packers, but so did everyone on the Lions. Since then, he’s averaging 75.3 yards at 5.01 yards per carry.
That includes a 94-yard performance against an elite Cleveland Browns run defence.
As mentioned, KC really struggles to stop the run, so I expect the tailback to get a boatload of carries.
Mahomes 275+ passing yards (-105): Ideally, Detroit is running away with this game (literally and figuratively), forcing the Chiefs into a pass-heavy game plan.
The two-time MVP is only 1-4 against this line, but I still think he’s trending toward clearing this total:
- Mahomes has elevated his play lately, throwing for 588 yards and five touchdowns over his last two games.
- He just threw for a season-high 318 yards against the Jaguars.
- The QB is averaging 36.6 passing attempts per game, tied for the second-most in football.
Kareem Hunt and Isiah Pacheco have been awful on the ground this year, and I don’t expect either RB to get things going against Detroit’s run defence.
Look for Mahomes to throw the ball a ton.
Lions vs. Chiefs predictions made at 12 p.m. on 10/11/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.