Alvin Kamara and Trey McBride headline this week’s NFL TD picks.
The pregame narrative: Kamara and the winless New Orleans Saints are favoured at home against the New York Giants. McBride and the Arizona Cardinals, meanwhile, are expected to blow out the bottom-feeding Tennessee Titans. I’m backing both to find the end zone at plus money.
Check out my top Week 5 NFL TD picks, featuring Miami Dolphins RB Ollie Gordon II.
NFL TD picks: Week 5
Best bet: Kamara to score (+100)
You might think the problem with this wager is getting Kamara close to the end zone. After all, New Orleans is winless while averaging the fifth-fewest points per game (16.5).
But in reality, the Saints can move the ball just fine — they just have a terrible red zone offence.
- 11th in red zone trips per game (3.5)
- 22nd in red zone TD percentage (50.0%)
That’s still not ideal, but it tells me Kamara will get some chances against a bad Giants defence.
New York is allowing the fourth-most rushing yards per game (153.0) while sitting last in EPA per rush and rush success rate, per RBSDM.com
Kellen Moore would be wise to lean on the team’s run game once they get into scoring position.
And Kamara is still the bell cow of this offence, logging 68% of all RB carries. He outpaces second-string Kendre Miller in red zone carries and touches within the 10 and five-yard line, too.
Key stat: The Giants have allowed 1.5 rushing TDs per game (third-most in the NFL).
Best NFL touchdown bets
McBride anytime TD (+180): Marvin Harrison Jr. had his mini breakout game during Thursday Night Football in Week 4, but McBride is still the needle mover on Arizona’s offence.
The third-year TE leads the team in snaps (236), targets (35), receptions (24), and receiving yards (234).
That’s only materialized in a single touchdown, which should change against a truly awful team.
The Titans are 0-4, are giving up 30 points per game, and were just out-possessed by almost 40 minutes by the Houston Texans in a 26-0 loss.
Gordon II anytime TD (+265): I love the value here on Gordon to find the end zone.
The rookie is cutting into DeVon Achane’s role as a lead back, equalling the number of red zone carries (six apiece) over the last two weeks.
In that span, he has two carries inside the five-yard line, while Achane has zero.
But this is more about Miami’s opponent, the Carolina Panthers.
Carolina was the worst team against the run last year, and hasn’t improved through a month this season.
The Panthers rank 24th in EPA per rush and are giving up 1.3 rushing TDs per game (fifth-most in the NFL).
NFL TD picks made at 10:45 a.m. ET on 10/03/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.