Avery Perri

A David-versus-Goliath wild-card matchup begins on Tuesday when the reigning champion Los Angeles Dodgers host the Cincinnati Reds for Game 1.

The pregame narrative: L.A. (93-69) finished the season with 10 more wins and a run differential four times greater than Cincinnati. That’s to be expected with a payroll discrepancy of $230 million. The Dodgers are heavily favoured in Game 1 with Blake Snell pitching opposite Hunter Greene.

Check out my +335 Reds vs. Dodgers predictions, featuring slugger Freddie Freeman.

Reds vs. Dodgers predictions

Parlay: Under 9.5 | Freeman over 1.5 bases | Greene over 4.5 Ks (+335)

Under 9.5 runs (-455): Cincinnati eked its way into the postseason mainly because of a generational collapse by the New York Mets.

The Reds did manage to go 14-11 in September, but they posted a .694 team OPS that month, which was the second-worst mark among all playoff teams.

And on the season, Cincinnati ranks 24th in wRC+ (92) and ISO (.146), as well as 23rd in K rate (23.3%).

Simply put, its offence is anemic.

Snell has been on fire since returning from injury in August, posting a 2.09 ERA in his last eight starts. All but one of those games went under this alternate total, and he should cruise again.

Cincinnati has its own ace starting, and he’s been lights out in September.

• 2.64 ERA
• .152 opponent BA
• 11.2 K/9

Eight of Greene’s last 10 starts have gone under this mark. Expect a low-scoring pitchers’ duel. 

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MLB SGP legs

Greene over 4.5 Ks (-315): Greene’s sparkling 11.2 K/9 rate in September is just the tip of the iceberg.

The righty’s 99.5 mph fastball ranks in the 99th percentile for velocity, and his slider has a 46.9% whiff rate — the ninth-highest mark of any qualified pitch this season, per Baseball Savant.

Greene ranks in the 93rd percentile in K rate (31.4%) and 90th percentile for whiff rate (31.4%), and has gone over this mark in seven of his last nine starts.

One of the outliers was a three-strikeout game against L.A. on Aug. 25, but that doesn’t worry me.

Greene still has a respectable 24.8% K rate against the Dodgers lineup, clearing this mark in both previous starts against them.

Freeman over 1.5 bases (+135): This is the leg that’s doing a ton of heavy lifting, more than quadrupling the parlay’s odds from -195 to +335.

And with Freeman’s postseason pedigree, I think that’s a steal.

The Canadian slugged .519 last October, matching his career playoff mark. Everyone will remember his four World Series home runs en route to winning the MVP.

Freeman slashed .299/.374/.500 against RHPs this year and is 4-for-15 off Greene with two doubles and a home run.

Reds vs. Dodgers predictions as of 10:45 a.m. on 09/30/2025.

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The 2025 MLB postseason has arrived.

A gruelling 162-game season has weeded out the impostors and narrowed the field to 12 teams. As those clubs battle for the World Series, a revised wagering strategy is required for the next month of baseball games.

This MLB postseason betting guide will help you understand the biggest changes that come with October baseball and how best to approach player props, game totals and more.

MLB postseason betting guide

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The rules are largely the same, but the game is managed a different way when the stakes are highest. As such, the betting lines you saw throughout the dog days of summer can look completely different.

There’s better pitching, at least more elite arms being deployed. The weather is generally colder. Substitutions are common. And runs are harder to come by.

Those factors impact prices for some of the most popular betting markets, including:

• Pitcher props
• Hitter props
• Game totals

We’ll explore each area, outline key differences from the regular season and attempt to find a betting edge for the final month of play.

MLB playoff pitching

The biggest difference between playoff and regular season ball is pitching. And that impacts pitching props as well as game totals.

Let’s start by looking at the prop markets.

Starters often have a shorter leash as teams turn to their bullpens for fresh arms and to capitalize on platoon advantages, especially in close games.

• According to ESPN’s David Schoenfield, relievers have accounted for 50% of all innings pitched over the last four postseasons.

• In the 2024 postseason, reliever usage was up over 10% from the regular season and eclipsed that 50% mark. The World Series-winning Los Angeles Dodgers used their bullpen for 58% of their playoff innings.

That means most starting pitchers will be yanked early — remember Jose Berrios in 2023, Blue Jays fans?

Starting pitcher props

The big horses like Tarik Skubal and Garrett Crochet might not be affected much, but O/U prop lines can start looking really different once you get past the elite arms.

Don’t be surprised to see a starter with an outs total that typically hovered around 17.5 in the regular season (18.5 in a plus matchup) to be priced at 15.5 in the playoffs.

Less time on the mound will lead to fewer strikeout opportunities, which means K lines will look different, too.

Here are some examples of big-name pitchers who had significantly lighter lines in recent postseason games:

• Max Scherzer (2023 ALCS G7): 13.5 outs. Scherzer averaged 16.9 outs in the regular season.

• Nathan Eovaldi (2023 ALCS G2): 14.5 outs line. Eovaldi averaged 17.3 outs in the regular season.

• Gerrit Cole (2024 WS G1): 4.5 strikeout line. Cole entered with a 10.36 career K/9 rate.

Some teams, of course, use their bullpens more than others.

From the 2025 trade deadline onward, the Padres (212.1 IP) and Brewers (210.0) ranked third and seventh, respectively, in bullpen innings pitched.

The Phillies (158.2 IP), Guardians (169.1), and Yankees (176.1) ranked 30th, 29th and 28th.

Betting tip: Be aware of a team’s bullpen usage and who’s likely available or not. Know who the next day’s starting pitcher is to try to understand their expected workload. And don’t assume a light line immediately makes the over a slam-dunk play (Scherzer and Cole both went under their lines in the examples above).

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MLB postseason betting guide: Playoff scoring

Most teams opt for a four-man starting rotation in October, meaning the best arms are available on a nightly basis.

And that means lower scoring.

A hypothetical matchup between Skubal and Crochet might yield an over/under of just 5.5 runs — much different than a random game between two No. 5 arms in mid-June.

Take a look at the difference in runs per game over the last five seasons (excluding the shortened 2020 year):

• Teams scored an average of 4.53 runs per game over the last five full regular seasons.

• In the playoffs, that average dropped to 4.06. That’s a reduction of 10.37%.

But that doesn’t mean blindly taking the under is a smart play. Overs have been slightly more profitable since the wild-card expansion in 2022 (118-114-16).

Since 2022, the Dodgers (15-6-2; 71.4%) have the highest overs rate, while the Yankees (8-13-2; 38.1%) have the highest unders rate.

The top five teams in runs per game all made the postseason this year, too, which is worth keeping in mind.

Team	Runs per game
Yankees	5.24
Dodgers	5.09
Brewers	4.98
Blue Jays	4.93
Cubs	4.90

Playoff game totals: Stadiums & weather

You know what else keeps the scoring low? Weather.

It’s not called the Fall Classic for nothing. Summer is over, the leaves have begun to change, and temperatures have dropped.

Most games will be played outdoors, and the ball doesn’t fly as far on a crisp October evening.

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Here’s a list of each playoff team’s stadium, average October weather (high/low in °C) and park factor, provided by Baseball Savant.

Team & Stadium	Park Factor	Weather
Red Sox (Fenway Park)	104 (2nd)	18° / 11°
Tigers (Comerica Park)	104 (4th)	15° / 7°
Dodgers (Dodger Stadium)	104 (5th)	26° / 16°
Blue Jays (Rogers Centre)	103 (6th)	Domed
Phillies (Citizens Bank Park)	103 (8th)	20° / 11°
Yankees (Yankee Stadium)	99 (15th)	18° / 10°
Reds (Great American Ball Park)	99 (17th)	20° / 7°
Cubs (Wrigley Field)	98 (20th)	17° / 10°
Brewers (American Family Field)	98 (21st)	Domed
Guardians (Progressive Field)	95 (27th)	18° / 10°
Padres (Petco Park)	94 (28th)	24° / 16°
Mariners (T-Mobile Park)	91 (30th)	15° / 10°

Blue Jays fans may be treated to fireworks at Rogers Centre this October with a temperature-controlled dome in what’s a good hitting environment.

On the other hand, Mariners games in Seattle should have very low totals, given the park, weather, and the team’s elite pitching staff.

Betting tip: Checking the weather forecast, including expected wind speeds and direction, should without question be part of your betting prep. This can help you make informed decisions on several betting markets, including home run props.

MLB postseason betting guide: Hitting props

Bullpens can ruin teams in the regular season, but most playoff squads are stacked with elite relief arms.

Combine that with strong starting pitching and colder temperatures, and hitting becomes quite difficult.

Managers will pull plenty of strings (and players) to get the best possible matchups throughout the game.

Certain batters will be lifted if there’s an unfavourable matchup, or if a team is looking to forgo offence for defence when holding a lead.

This means batting props, like pitching props, will generally not have the same regular-season prices. We’ll look at two popular hitting props below: runs scored and total bases.

• A over on a 1.5 total bases prop that’s generally +100 might be in the +130 to +150 range. That’s a significant difference in payout potential.

• Don’t be surprised to see leadoff hitters who often have odds to score with an implied probability greater than 50% to be available at plus or even money.

Again, this all comes back to good pitching, which leads to lower game totals.

Here are some lines from recent postseason games:

• Gleyber Torres (2024 ALDS G4): +105 to score. Torres was the Yankees’ leadoff hitter.

• Francisco Lindor (2024 WC G1): +135 over 1.5 bases. Lindor was seventh in the regular season with 334 total bases.

MLB postseason betting guide: Player prop strategy

Here are a couple of things to look at and ways to approach hitting props.

• Try to find batters with a favourable history against the starting pitcher in a good hitter’s park.

• Look for hitters who might not play the whole game. They could be priced at -120 to record a hit (a number you’d never see in the regular season).

• On the flip side of the hit market, fades can be profitable, too, if you can find a batter with A) a poor history against a pitcher, and B) a chance of being lifted for a platoon advantage later in the game.

Anthony Volpe is a perfect example of the potential value that can be found on the hits market.

The shortstop is -117 to record a hit and -112 to go hitless in Tuesday’s wild-card game against the Boston Red Sox.

Volpe is slashing .253/.316/.416 against LHP, and faces an elite southpaw in Crochet.

His .195/.254/.382 slash line against righties is unsightly, and his -5 fielding run value indicates he won’t be left in for defensive reasons.

Betting on the Blue Jays

The Blue Jays are a perfect example of a team that loves to exploit its righty-lefty or lefty-righty matchups.

While there’s no fear of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. or George Springer being lifted mid-game, the same can’t be said for every player in the lineup.

• Players like Ernie Clement and Addison Barger both run severe splits and have routinely gotten pulled from ballgames after the advantage is gone.

• Barger hit below the Mendoza line in September, and could be worth fading if he’s battling a tough righty.

• Anthony Santander is another Blue Jay to monitor. Toronto likely wants his power bat in the lineup, but to slot Springer at DH. That means Santander could see the bulk of his postseason action as an outfielder. In an effort to prioritize defence later in the game, Santander is a prime substitution candidate.

Betting tip: Familiarize yourself with a team’s lineup and tendencies before placing prop bets. Substitutions are going to happen, creating potential value if you have an understanding of how a manager may look to exploit a game.

The bright lights

Aaron Judge and Bryce Harper are two of MLB’s biggest names, and they’ve performed on opposite ends of the scale under the bright lights.

Here’s a quick look at some notable trends ahead of the playoffs:

• Judge (NYY): The best hitter in baseball has struggled mightily in the postseason recently, with a .643 OPS since 2021. He slashed .184/.344/.408 last season, going under 1.5 bases in 10 of 14 games.

• Harper (PHI): Harper logged an OPS north of 1.050 in every postseason with the Phillies, scoring 29 runs in 34 games.

• Guerrero (TOR): Toronto’s $500-million man is batting .136 with one extra-base hit in six playoff games. He only has one strikeout in his last 17 postseason plate appearances, though.

• Skubal (DET): Skubal averaged 19.0 outs across three playoff starts last year and 18.58 outs in the regular season. He allowed zero runs before the fifth inning in those games.

• Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD): Tatis has a 1.500 OPS in his last 15 postseason games. He’s batting .423 with more than double the amount of extra-base hits (seven) than walks (three), making him a prime total bases target.

• Ranger Suarez (PHI): The Phillies southpaw is having a strong year, averaging 18.36 outs per performance. He also has a 1.43 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in his last 10 playoff appearances (eight starts) — but in those eight starts, he’s 1-7 against a 15.5 outs line.

• Luis Arraez Jr. (SD): Arraez has a .205 batting average across his last two postseasons with zero walks and zero extra-base hits. He struggles against left-handed pitching and has a -5 fielding run value, making him a prime candidate to be removed after a platoon advantage.

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MLB postseason betting guide FAQ

How many teams make the postseason?
Twelve teams make MLB’s postseason: Three division winners in each league plus three wild cards. The top two seeds in each league get a bye to the division series.

What is MLB’s playoff format?
The postseason begins with a best-of-three wild-card series, and the higher seed hosts all the games. Winners face the top two seeds in the division series, a best-of-five, 2-2-1 format. The League Championship Series and the World Series are best-of-seven, with the higher seed hosting four games.

When do the MLB playoffs start?
The wild-card round begins on Sept. 30 with the ALDS and NLDS kicking off on Oct. 4.

When does the World Series begin?
The World Series is slated to begin on Oct. 24 with a possible Game 7 on Nov. 1.

Who are the favourites?
At the time of writing, the reigning champion Dodgers and Phillies are tied as favourites. The Blue Jays are +1,000 to win the World Series.

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Which teams are the top seeds?
The Blue Jays are the AL’s top seed, and the Mariners also received a first-round bye. In the NL, the Brewers have the top seed and the Phillies are No. 2.

When and who do the Blue Jays play?
The Blue Jays begin their postseason at home on Oct. 4. They will play the winner of the wild-card series between the Yankees and Red Sox, setting up an AL East battle.

What is Toronto’s playoff history?
Most recently, the Blue Jays made the playoffs in 2020, 2022 and 2023. They didn’t win a single game in any of those years. Toronto made the ALCS in both 2015 and 2016 and has two franchise World Series victories (1992, 1993).

Who won the 2024 World Series?
The Dodgers won last year’s World Series, beating the Yankees 4-1. Canadian slugger Freddie Freeman took home MVP honours after hitting four home runs and recording 12 RBI.