September’s NFL action concludes in Denver when the Broncos host the Cincinnati Bengals on Monday Night Football.
The pregame narrative: Denver’s defence is elite, and Cincinnati remains without Joe Burrow, who is sidelined long-term with a foot injury. The Broncos are 7.5-point favourites at home, and seem poised to return to .500.
Check out my Bengals vs. Broncos same-game parlay predictions for Week 4, featuring Bo Nix and Tee Higgins.
Bengals vs. Broncos SGP predictions
SGP: Broncos -4.5 | Nix over 1.5 passing touchdowns | Higgins 40+ receiving yards (+295)
Broncos -4.5 (-225): Denver is a much better team than its 1-2 record indicates, and I believe it’ll roll on Monday Night Football.
The Broncos have one-score losses to the Chargers in Los Angeles and the Colts in Indianapolis.
Those are two respectable teams, and really, Denver got hosed in that defeat against Indy thanks to a questionable late call.
The squad’s defence is among the best in football, ranking first in EPA per play last season and seventh through Week 3, per RBSDM.com.
Jake Browning will be tasked with beating that unit, and I don’t trust the career backup to perform after a horrible outing against the Minnesota Vikings last week.
Zac Taylor is now 8-23 SU without Joe Burrow, and the Bengals have averaged fewer than 20 points in the 15 games he’s missed with an injury.
Monday Night Football SGP picks
Nix over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-106): Even if Burrow stayed healthy, it’s hard to believe Cincinnati would be going anywhere with this defence.
The Bengals gave up the seventh-most points per game last year (25.5). They’ve allowed 75 combined points to Trevor Lawrence and Carson Wentz in the last two weeks. Both cleared this mark:
- Lawrence: 24-of-42, 271 yards, two TDs
- Wentz: 14-of-20, 173 yards, three TDs
Nix is 5-2 against this line in his last seven regular-season games. That includes a matchup against Cincinnati last year, where he threw three touchdown passes.
Higgins 40+ receiving yards (-195): The matchup to watch is all-pro wide receiver Ja’Maar Chase versus reigning DPOY Patrick Surtain.
I have a feeling it will lean Surtain’s way, and I want no part of Chase’s receiving total.
That said, Higgins should be the beneficiary if Cincinnati’s WR1 is clamped up. The 6-foot-4 wideout was nonexistent last week, but caught 3-of-8 targets for 56 yards before that.
All in all, Higgins is 5-2 against this milestone in his last seven games with Browning under centre.
Bengals vs. Broncos predictions made at 2:05 p.m. on 09/27/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.