Staff Writer

Rays vs. Blue Jays picks and predictions Sept. 28: Back George Springer with AL East title on the line

The Toronto Blue Jays can clinch the AL East on Sunday in their regular-season finale against the Tampa Bay Rays.

The pregame narrative: Toronto controls its own destiny with one game to play. A win means the division and a first-round bye. The Jays can also clinch with a New York Yankees loss, but Kevin Gausman and Co. are favoured, and will want to take matters into their own hands.

Check out my Blue Jays picks vs. the Rays for Sept. 28, featuring a prop bet on George Springer.

Blue Jays picks vs. Rays

Best bet: Under 4.5 runs F5 innings (-125)

Hats off to John Schneider for ensuring Gausman got the ball today.

Toronto’s ace has been on another level since the all-star break, and he should put the team in a good position to win this game.

Gausman has a 2.49 ERA and 2.80 FIP in 12 starts since the all-star break.

In that span, he has a 26% K rate and a .186 opponent batting average.

The righty faced the Rays on Sept. 17 and held them to one run over 6.1 IP.

Gausman hasn’t gotten a ton of run support lately, though, and Toronto’s offence has mostly looked rudderless down the stretch.

The group has come alive over the last three games, but I’m skeptical it will be able to hit lefty Ian Seymour today.

Seymour began the season as a reliever and has a 2.08 ERA across six outings since his first start on Aug. 25. One of those was against the Jays on Sept. 17, where he threw 7.0 shutout innings in a 2-1 victory.

The Jays will want to play this game as a chess match, and I anticipate that’ll mean another low-scoring affair.

Key stat: Four of Gausman’s last five starts have gone under this number.

Jays prop predictions

Springer over 1.5 bases (-108): Springer is one Blue Jay I trust to come through in the clutch.

The veteran outfielder has had a career year, posting a .306/.395/.553 slash line, and can put a bow on it with a strong performance today.

Springer is slugging .628 this month and .578 at home. He actually runs reverse splits, meaning he hits righties better than lefties, but did go 1-for-3 off Seymour earlier this month.

And batting out of the leadoff spot, he’ll have the best chance of clearing this line from a volume standpoint.

Springer leads MLB in wRC+ (204) since the all-star break.

Blue Jays picks made at 9:32 a.m. ET on 09/28/2025.

Best MLB prop bets Sept. 28: Back Brady Singer, Alonso and Langeliers in regular-season finale

Sunday marks the final day of MLB’s regular season, and I’ve got three picks for the action.

Today’s MLB props narrative: It’s win-and-in for the Cincinnati Reds, who start Brady Singer against the NL-best Milwaukee Brewers. I expect Singer to clear his outs total against a team with nothing to play for.

Check out how I’m betting on them in the best MLB prop bets for Sept. 28, featuring picks on Pete Alonso and Shea Langeliers.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Singer over 16.5 outs (-107)

On the surface, this line seems light.

Singer needs to reach 5.2 IP for this wager to cash. He’s done that in eight of his last 10 starts.

The righty has pitched into the sixth inning in eight straight starts, going 7-1 against this line with a 2.49 ERA.

Of course, there are layers to this bet with a playoff spot on the line. Given the importance, Cincinnati will likely have Singer on a shorter leash.

But the Reds did use four relievers yesterday, with three of them having pitched on Friday.

Also, I’m skeptical Milwaukee will trot out its best possible lineup in this game. The Brewers have already clinched the NL’s top seed and will likely give their top dogs a rest ahead of the playoffs.

At the time of writing, the Brewers haven’t released their official lineup. But even if they all play, I think Singer can have a solid day.

Key stat: Milwaukee has lost six of its last eight games while averaging 2.12 runs. In that span, the Brewers rank 28th in wRC+ (63).

Embed: #118481

Best MLB picks

Alonso over 1.5 bases (+112): After an epic late-season collapse, the New York Mets need a win and a Reds loss to clinch their playoff spot.

It’s been an embarrassing run, but Alonso has done everything possible in September to keep New York afloat.

.295/.349/.589 slash line
Seven HR
16 RBI

The Polar Bear has cleared this line in three straight games with four XBH in that span.

He went 2-for-4 last night with a home run and a double, and should stay hot against Miami Marlins righty Edward Cabrera.

Alonso is slugging .569 vs. RHP and is 5-for-17 against Cabrera with three HR.

Langeliers over 1.5 total bases (+110): Langeliers is about to put a bow on a monster season.

The Athletics’ catcher has put up career-highs in all three slash categories (.277/.325/.536), home runs (31), doubles (32) and bWAR (3.9).

And he’s absolutely destroyed lefties to the tune of a .367/.374/.667 slash line.

Langeliers has only been walked twice by southpaws all season, while mashing the baseball. That’s a dream for any total base bettor.

Today, he faces Kansas City Royals lefty Cole Ragans.

Langeliers is 0-for-10 against Ragans, but hasn’t seen him this year, which also happens to be one of the worst seasons of the pitcher’s career (5.02 ERA, 1.22 WHIP).

MLB prop picks made at 10:25 a.m. ET on 09/27/2025.

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Rays vs. Blue Jays picks and predictions Sept. 28: Back George Springer with AL East title on the line

The Toronto Blue Jays can clinch the AL East on Sunday in their regular-season finale against the Tampa Bay Rays.

The pregame narrative: Toronto controls its own destiny with one game to play. A win means the division and a first-round bye. The Jays can also clinch with a New York Yankees loss, but Kevin Gausman and Co. are favoured, and will want to take matters into their own hands.

Check out my Blue Jays picks vs. the Rays for Sept. 28, featuring a prop bet on George Springer.

Blue Jays picks vs. Rays

Best bet: Under 4.5 runs F5 innings (-130)

Hats off to John Schneider for ensuring Gausman got the ball today.

Toronto’s ace has been on another level since the all-star break, and he should put the team in a good position to win this game.

Gausman has a 2.49 ERA and 2.80 FIP in 12 starts since the all-star break.

In that span, he has a 26% K rate and a .186 opponent batting average.

The righty faced the Rays on Sept. 17 and held them to one run over 6.1 IP.

Gausman hasn’t gotten a ton of run support lately, though, and Toronto’s offence has mostly looked rudderless down the stretch.

The group has come alive over the last three games, but I’m skeptical it will be able to hit lefty Ian Seymour today.

Seymour began the season as a reliever and has a 2.08 ERA across six outings since his first start on Aug. 25. One of those was against the Jays on Sept. 17, where he threw 7.0 shutout innings in a 2-1 victory.

The Jays will want to play this game as a chess match, and I anticipate that’ll mean another low-scoring affair.

Key stat: Four of Gausman’s last five starts have gone under this number.

Embed: #118479

Jays prop predictions

Springer over 1.5 bases (-103): Springer is one Blue Jay I trust to come through in the clutch.

The veteran outfielder has had a career year, posting a .306/.395/.553 slash line, and can put a bow on it with a strong performance today.

Springer is slugging .628 this month and .578 at home. He actually runs reverse splits, meaning he hits righties better than lefties, but did go 1-for-3 off Seymour earlier this month.

And batting out of the leadoff spot, he’ll have the best chance of clearing this line from a volume standpoint.

Springer leads MLB in wRC+ (204) since the all-star break.

Blue Jays picks made at 9:32 a.m. ET on 09/28/2025.

Best WNBA playoff prop bets Sept. 28: Back Kelsey Mitchell, Alyssa Thomas on Sunday

Sunday’s WNBA playoff action features a pair of elimination games with trips to the Finals on the line.

The latest: The Phoenix Mercury and Las Vegas Aces are favoured to close out their respective series against the Indiana Fever and Minnesota Lynx. I’m backing Indiana’s Kelsey Mitchell and Phoenix’s Alyssa Thomas to stuff the stat sheet.

Check out the best WNBA prop bets for Sept. 28.

WNBA prop bets

Best bet: Thomas over 17.5 rebounds & assists (-132)

Thomas is having a postseason that would make the best players jealous.

The WNBA’s career triple-doubles leader is flirting with that line, averaging 17.8 points, 8.5 rebounds and 9.0 assists.

Thomas’ nightly rebounds/assists line averages out to exactly 17.5, and she came one counting stat shy in Game 3. But the forward went off for eight rebounds and 13 assists in Game 2 and should have an easier time putting up numbers if Napheesa Collier can’t suit up.

Collier, the 2024 WNBA Defensive Player of the Year, suffered an ankle injury toward the end of Friday’s contest and “probably has a fracture,” according to Lynx head coach Cheryl Reeve.

That would be a massive blow to Minnesota’s chances of completing a series comeback, but it’s a boon for this wager.

Key stat: Thomas is leading the WNBA playoffs in minutes per game (36.7).

Full WNBA betting markets

Best WNBA picks

Mitchell 20+ points (-141): This bet should come close to hitting every night from a volume standpoint alone.

Mitchell has been Indiana’s top dog since Caitlin Clark played her last game on July 15, leading the Fever in these categories on a per-game basis:

MIN (31.7)
Points (21.2)
FGA (16.3)
3PA (7.0)

And she’s been consistently filling the basket in the postseason, averaging 23.0 PPG even with an ugly 41.8 FG%.

That’s because she’s taking 18.3 shots a night.

Mitchell is 4-2 against this line in the playoffs, landing on 19 points in one of the outliers.

WNBA prop picks made at 12:05 p.m. ET on 09/27/2025.

Tennis predictions for China, Japan Opens Sept. 28: Bets for Medvedev vs. Davidovich, Brooksby vs. Rune

I’ve got a pair of ATP tennis bets from this weekend’s action in Asia.

The pre-match narrative: Daniil Medvedev has had a dreadful season and is worth fading against Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in the China Open round of 16. Elsewhere, Holger Rune should win comfortably against Jenson Brooksby in Tokyo.

Check out my top tennis predictions for the Sept. 28 matches at the China Open and Japan Open.

Tennis predictions: Japan Open, Sept. 28

Best bet: Davidovich to win (+110)

This line doesn’t make much sense to me.

Medvedev is having the worst season of his professional career, crashing out of the U.S. Open, French Open and Wimbledon in the opening rounds.

The Russian also just lost to ATP No. 158 Yibing Wu last week and has an awful 14-10 record on hard courts this season.

I won’t let his recent win over Cameron Norrie cloud my judgment.

Medvedev hasn’t won consecutive matches on hard court since Indian Wells in March, and Davidovich Fokina is no slouch.

The Spaniard is 21-12 on hard court this year. He reached the finals in the Citi DC Open, Mexico Open, and Delray Beach Open.

He lost all of those finals in heartbreaking fashion, mind you. But he beat players like Taylor Fritz (twice), Ben Shelton, Frances Tiafoe and Denis Shapovalov to get there.

Key stat: Davidovich Fokina is 8-2 in his last 10 hard-court matches (not counting two losses where he was forced to retire with an injury).

Full tennis betting markets

Japan Open best bet: Brooksby vs. Rune

Rune -3.5 games (-112): Rune is having his best-ever season on hard courts, compiling a 17-8 record with a finals appearance at Indian Wells earlier in the year.

He’s picked up a pair of decisive wins at this event, beating Hamad Medjedovic (7-6, 6-1) and Ethan Quinn (6-4, 6-2).

Rune converted over 50% of his break points in those matches and landed his first serve north of 65% of the time.

Now, he faces a low-ranking American with a mediocre 8-8 record on hard courts this season.

Brooksby is 1-4 against top-20-ranked ATP players on hard courts this season, failing to cover this spread in each loss.

I trust the Dane to get the job done.

Tennis predictions made at 12:41 p.m. on 09/27/2025.

NFL Week 4 betting guide: Player prop recommendations, parlay picks and more for the 16-game slate

The last full slate of NFL football until late November pulls no punches.

Week 4 at a glance: The wall-to-wall action begins when the Pittsburgh Steelers and Minnesota Vikings battle in Dublin. Then, fans are treated to a heavyweight matchup between Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes at Arrowhead Stadium before Micah Parsons returns to Dallas on Sunday Night Football.

Check out our Week 4 NFL betting guide for staff picks and predictions on the loaded 16-game slate, which features a Monday Night Football doubleheader.

NFL betting guide

Key storylines:

Jerry Jones made headlines when he traded all-pro defensive end Micah Parsons to the Green Bay Packers ahead of the season. Now Parsons is set to return to AT&T Stadium to take on his old team in primetime. The Packers own the league’s best scoring defence and are touchdown favourites.

One of the Baltimore Ravens or Kansas City Chiefs will be at 1-3 after Sunday’s matchup. That adds another layer to this epic battle between Mahomes and Jackson. Kansas City is 4-1 in head-to-head matchups where both QBs are playing.

It’s Jaxson Dart time in the Meadowlands. The New York Giants are turning to their first-round pick after an 0-3 start, benching Russell Wilson in favour of the rookie. New York is a 6.5-point home underdog as of Thursday morning.

Pittsburgh and Minnesota kick off the NFL’s European International Series at 9:30 a.m. ET in Dublin. Both squads are 2-1, and the Vikings are coming off a 48-10 win behind backup QB Carson Wentz.

Only six teams remain undefeated so far… one of them is the Daniel Jones-led Indianapolis Colts. Jones ranks third in passing yards (835) and first in QBR (85.8). The Colts are the first team to punt only once in the first three games of an NFL season since at least 1940.

There were some big-name injuries in Week 3. San Francisco’s standout defensive end Nick Bosa is out for the season, as are running backs James Conner and Najee Harris.

NFL betting hub

NFL Week 4 betting notes

Mahomes is 11-5 straight up and 12-3-1 against the spread as an underdog in his career. He has only been a home underdog twice, though, and lost both games outright (including Week 2 vs. the Philadelphia Eagles this year).

The Tennessee Titans are on a truly miserable ATS run, going 3-17 in their last 20 games. First overall pick Cam Ward hasn’t stopped the bleeding and is 1-2 ATS as a starter.

The Detroit Lions are 19-5 ATS after a seven-plus point win under head coach Dan Campbell. In that same span, the Lions are 15-10 ATS as a home favourite, winning those games by an average of 11.3 points.

Bryce Young is 1-14 SU and 5-10 ATS on the road as a starter. As a coach, Mike Vrabel of the New England Patriots has a 28-11 SU record against teams under .500.

Zac Taylor is now 8-23 SU without Joe Burrow since joining the Cincinnati Bengals in 2019. The Bengals have averaged fewer than 20 points in the 15 games Burrow has missed with an injury and lost by 38 last week.

Biggest spreads: Bills (-16.5) vs. Saints; Browns vs. Lions (-10); Packers (-7) vs. Cowboys

Highest totals: Colts vs. Rams (49.5); Ravens vs. Chiefs (48.5); Saints vs. Bills (47.5)

NFL betting guide: Week 4 predictions

ATS picks: Get ATS predictions for the entire slate, headlined by Lions vs. Ravens on Monday Night Football.

Best bets: An ATS wager, a moneyline pick, and two player props (featuring Caleb Williams, Saquon Barkley) make up this week’s staff best bets.

Prop bets: Check out Jordan Horrobin’s best prop picks for Week 4, including Patrick Mahomes and rookie QB Jaxon Dart in his first NFL start.

TD picks: Did you know Bhayshul Tuten had the Jaguars’ only carry inside the five-yard line last week. Horrobin sees Tuten as a value play to score for a third consecutive week as he carves out a steady role in Jacksonville’s offence.

Week 4 upset picks: The undefeated Tampa Bay Buccaneers have won nine of their last 11 games while averaging 28.6 PPG. Avery Perri is all over backing them as a home underdog against the Eagles.

Ravens vs. Chiefs Week 4 SGP: As difficult as it is to believe, either the Ravens or Chiefs will start the year 1-3. Spencer Closs has a moneyline prediction as part of this +360 parlay.

Packers vs. Cowboys SNF picks: Green Bay only scored 10 points last week in a shocking loss in Cleveland. Is this a get-right spot for the Packers against a struggling Dallas defence?

Packers vs. Cowboys SNF SGP: Plenty of attention will be paid to Micah Parsons in his return to Big D, but Perri is highlighting three other players in his +370 parlay — including Javonte Williams and Josh Jacobs.

Packers vs. Cowboys SNF TD picks: Green Bay and Dallas meet in primetime. Who’s going to find pay dirt? Steven Psihogios is betting on a running back and a tight end to score.

Jets vs. Dolphins Week 4 MNF picks: This is a homecoming for Jets tight end Mason Taylor, a Miami native whose father (Jason) spent most of his Hall of Fame career with the Dolphins. Horrobin is backing the rookie TE on a modest receiving prop at plus money.

Jets vs. Dolphins Week 4 MNF SGP: Two AFC East rivals are desperate for their first win. Psihogios is expecting standout performances from Jaylen Waddle and Braelon Allen in a +325 SGP.

Bengals vs. Broncos Week 4 MNF picks: J.K. Dobbins has scored in all three games since joining the Broncos and is looking like the obvious RB1 with his new squad. Denver is a hefty home favourite with Jake Browning and the Bengals in town.

We’ll release more NFL predictions throughout the week. Here’s what you can expect for Week 4.

Sept. 28

Jets vs. Dolphins Week 4 MNF SGP
Bengals vs. Broncos Week 4 MNF SGP
Packers vs. Cowboys Week 4 SNF TD picks

NFL Week 4 matchups

Thursday Night Football (Sept. 25)

Seahawks vs. Cardinals (8:15 p.m. ET)

Bet on Week 4 NFL action

International Series game in Dublin (Sept. 28)

Vikings vs. Steelers (9:30 a.m. ET)

Sunday, Sept. 29: 1 p.m. ET slate

Panthers vs. Patriots | Browns vs. Lions | Chargers vs. Giants

Saints vs. Bills | Eagles vs. Buccaneers

Titans vs. Texans | Commanders vs. Falcons

Sunday, Sept. 21: 4 p.m. ET slate

Colts vs. Rams | Jaguars vs. 49ers

Ravens vs. Chiefs | Bears vs. Raiders

Sunday Night Football

Packers vs. Cowboys (8:20 p.m. ET)

Monday Night Football doubleheader (Sept. 29)

Jets vs. Dolphins (7:15 p.m. ET)

Bengals vs. Broncos (8:15 p.m. ET)

Packers vs. Cowboys SNF Week 4 SGP predictions: Back RBs Williams and Jacobs in +370 ticket

The NFL couldn’t script a better Sunday Night Football matchup than this showdown between the Dallas Cowboys and Green Bay Packers.

The pregame narrative: This was slated long before Micah Parsons joined the Packers from Dallas in a blockbuster preseason trade. But now, the All-Pro defensive end is looking for revenge against his old team. Green Bay is a touchdown favourite in this matchup and aims to move to 3-1.

Check out my +370 Packers vs. Cowboys same-game parlay predictions for Week 4 below, featuring Josh Jacobs, Javonte Williams and Jake Ferguson.

Packers vs. Cowboys SGP predictions

SGP: Packers ML | Jacobs to score | Williams 40+ rushing yards | Ferguson 40+ receiving yards (+370)

Packers moneyline (-335): I was debating backing the Cowboys at +14.5, but realized this would yield an even greater payout, with, in my mind, less risk.

Green Bay picked up a pair of dominant wins over the Detroit Lions and Washington Commanders to begin the season before suffering a fluke loss to the Cleveland Browns in Week 3.

That sunk my survivor pool, but I won’t let personal bias cloud my judgment.

The Packers’ defence ranks first in scoring, third in total yards and third in EPA per play, according to RBSDM.com. That’s the Parsons effect.

Dallas, meanwhile, has looked rudderless without its star pass-rusher, ranking 27th, 29th and 31st in the aforementioned categories.

I can’t see the Cowboys pulling off an upset, especially without star wide receiver CeeDee Lamb.

Embed: #118450

Sunday Night Football SGP picks

Jacobs to score (-215): Jacobs’ -215 odds to find the end zone tell you everything about his talent and Dallas’ incompetence.

The bruising running back has two TDs so far after putting up 16 in his debut season with the Packers last year.

Matt LaFleur loves to hammer Jacobs at the goal line. His 48 carries inside the 10-yard line since the start of last season are 10 more than the next closest player (Kyren Williams).

Dallas’ four rushing TDs allowed so far are the fourth-most in the NFL.

Top Cowboys SGP props

Williams 40+ rushing yards (-220): I don’t expect Dallas to completely abandon the run game even if it’s behind.

Williams has logged at least 10 carries in every game so far, going 3-0 against this milestone while averaging 75.6 yards per game.

His 69% snap share tells me he’ll be on the field plenty.

The Packers just let rookie Quinshon Judkins rush for 94 yards, and I’m hopeful Williams will get enough looks to reach less than half of that mark.

Ferguson 40+ receiving yards (-230): Finally, I’m looking for Ferguson to step up in Lamb’s absence.

The fourth-year tight end has received sky-high usage over the last two games:

Week 2 vs. NYG: 9 catches, 12 targets, 78 yards

Week 3 vs. CHI: 13 catches, 14 targets, 82 yards

He was targeted on 48.3% of routes run last week, and 32.7% on the season. For context, Ja’Maar Chase was targeted on 23.6% of routes run last season.

Dak Prescott should be looking Ferguson’s way early and often on Sunday.

Packers vs. Cowboys predictions made at 2:05 p.m. on 09/27/2025.

Tennis predictions for China, Japan Opens Sept. 28: Bets for Medvedev vs. Davidovich, Brooksby vs. Rune

I’ve got a pair of ATP tennis bets from this weekend’s action in Asia.

The pre-match narrative: Daniil Medvedev has had a dreadful season and is worth fading against Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in the China Open round of 16. Elsewhere, Holger Rune should win comfortably against Jenson Brooksby in Tokyo.

Check out my top tennis predictions for the Sept. 28 matches at the China Open and Japan Open.

Tennis predictions: Japan Open, Sept. 28

Best bet: Davidovich to win (+115)

This line doesn’t make much sense to me.

Medvedev is having the worst season of his professional career, crashing out of the U.S. Open, French Open and Wimbledon in the opening rounds.

The Russian also just lost to ATP No. 158 Yibing Wu last week and has an awful 14-10 record on hard courts this season.

I won’t let his recent win over Cameron Norrie cloud my judgment.

Medvedev hasn’t won consecutive matches on hard court since Indian Wells in March, and Davidovich Fokina is no slouch.

The Spaniard is 21-12 on hard court this year. He reached the finals in the Citi DC Open, Mexico Open, and Delray Beach Open.

He lost all of those finals in heartbreaking fashion, mind you. But he beat players like Taylor Fritz (twice), Ben Shelton, Frances Tiafoe and Denis Shapovalov to get there.

Key stat: Davidovich Fokina is 8-2 in his last 10 hard-court matches (not counting two losses where he was forced to retire with an injury).

Full tennis betting markets

Japan Open best bet: Brooksby vs. Rune

Rune -3.5 games (-103): Rune is having his best-ever season on hard courts, compiling a 17-8 record with a finals appearance at Indian Wells earlier in the year.

He’s picked up a pair of decisive wins at this event, beating Hamad Medjedovic (7-6, 6-1) and Ethan Quinn (6-4, 6-2).

Rune converted over 50% of his break points in those matches and landed his first serve north of 65% of the time.

Now, he faces a low-ranking American with a mediocre 8-8 record on hard courts this season.

Brooksby is 1-4 against top-20-ranked ATP players on hard courts this season, failing to cover this spread in each loss.

I trust the Dane to get the job done.

Tennis predictions made at 12:41 p.m. on 09/27/2025.

Best MLB prop bets Sept. 27: Back Ketel Marte, Nick Kurtz to do damage on Saturday

The AL Rookie of the Year in waiting, Nick Kurtz, headlines Saturday’s MLB prop bets.

Today’s MLB props narrative: Kurtz has destroyed right-handed pitching all season, and he faces a struggling one at the hitter-friendly Sutter Health Park. I’m betting on him to hit for power in this plus matchup.

Check out how I’m betting on them in the best MLB prop bets for Sept. 27, featuring Ketel Marte and Eury Perez.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Kurtz over 1.5 total bases (-118)

Kurtz has two games remaining to put a bow on his historic rookie campaign.

So far, the 22-year-old has belted 35 home runs and ranks third in MLB in OPS (1.001). The only players ahead of him? Shohei Ohtani and Aaron Judge.

The vast majority of that damage has been inflicted against RHPs.

.338/.340/.719 slash line
27 of 35 HRs
22 of 26 doubles

Kurtz was held hitless last night, but went 3-for-5 with a pair of home runs on Thursday.

He should have a good chance of rebounding against Kansas City Royals righty, Michael Wacha.

Wacha has a 7.88 ERA across his last five starts, ceding 34 hits in 24.0 IP. He’s only walked five batters in that span with a 16% K rate, which is right in line with his season-long profile (14th-percentile K rate, 83rd-percentile BB rate).

Kurtz should get something to hit at Sutter Health Park, the second-best offensive environment in MLB, per Baseball Savant’s park factors data.

Key stat: Kurtz leads MLB in wRC+ against RHPs (212).

Best MLB picks

Marte over 1.5 total bases (+120): The Arizona Diamondbacks’ current three-game losing streak ended their postseason chances, but Marte was solid in those outings.

5-for-13
2 doubles, 1 HR
3-0 vs. this prop

And dating back to Sept. 16, he’s posted a .350/.381/.625 slash line with eight extra-base hits and just one walk.

That’s what I like to see when targeting a bases prop. Tonight, he’ll go up against San Diego’s Michael King, which isn’t an easy assignment.

But King is making just his fourth start since returning from the injured list and will likely be on a pitch count after throwing no more than 70 pitches since May.

Marte is also 2-for-6 against King.

Perez under 14.5 outs (+115): There’s a world where the New York Mets are eliminated from the postseason tonight (with a loss, plus a Cincinnati Reds win).

I don’t see that happening, though.

Perez is on the bump for the opposing Miami Marlins, and he’s gotten shelled by New York.

The Mets are batting .471 off him in 23 combined plate appearances. He lasted just 0.2 innings agianst them on Aug. 29, giving up five earned runs with zero strikeouts.

The start after that, Perez coughed up seven ER in 4.0 IP against the Washington Nationals.

The righty has gone under this mark in four of his last seven outings.

MLB prop picks made at 10:25 a.m. ET on 09/27/2025.

Best MLB prop bets Sept. 27: Back Ketel Marte, Nick Kurtz to do damage on Saturday

The AL Rookie of the Year in waiting, Nick Kurtz, headlines Saturday’s MLB prop bets.

Today’s MLB props narrative: Kurtz has destroyed right-handed pitching all season, and he faces a struggling one at the hitter-friendly Sutter Health Park. I’m betting on him to hit for power in this plus matchup.

Check out how I’m betting on them in the best MLB prop bets for Sept. 27, featuring Ketel Marte and Eury Perez.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Kurtz over 1.5 total bases (-113)

Kurtz has two games remaining to put a bow on his historic rookie campaign.

So far, the 22-year-old has belted 35 home runs and ranks third in MLB in OPS (1.001). The only players ahead of him? Shohei Ohtani and Aaron Judge.

The vast majority of that damage has been inflicted against RHPs.

.338/.340/.719 slash line
27 of 35 HRs
22 of 26 doubles

Kurtz was held hitless last night, but went 3-for-5 with a pair of home runs on Thursday.

He should have a good chance of rebounding against Kansas City Royals righty, Michael Wacha.

Wacha has a 7.88 ERA across his last five starts, ceding 34 hits in 24.0 IP. He’s only walked five batters in that span with a 16% K rate, which is right in line with his season-long profile (14th-percentile K rate, 83rd-percentile BB rate).

Kurtz should get something to hit at Sutter Health Park, the second-best offensive environment in MLB, per Baseball Savant’s park factors data.

Key stat: Kurtz leads MLB in wRC+ against RHPs (212).

Best MLB picks

Marte over 1.5 total bases (+116): The Arizona Diamondbacks’ current three-game losing streak ended their postseason chances, but Marte was solid in those outings.

5-for-13
2 doubles, 1 HR
3-0 vs. this prop

And dating back to Sept. 16, he’s posted a .350/.381/.625 slash line with eight extra-base hits and just one walk.

That’s what I like to see when targeting a bases prop. Tonight, he’ll go up against San Diego’s Michael King, which isn’t an easy assignment.

But King is making just his fourth start since returning from the injured list and will likely be on a pitch count after throwing no more than 70 pitches since May.

Marte is also 2-for-6 against King.

Perez under 14.5 outs (+125): There’s a world where the New York Mets are eliminated from the postseason tonight (with a loss, plus a Cincinnati Reds win).

I don’t see that happening, though.

Perez is on the bump for the opposing Miami Marlins, and he’s gotten shelled by New York.

The Mets are batting .471 off him in 23 combined plate appearances. He lasted just 0.2 innings agianst them on Aug. 29, giving up five earned runs with zero strikeouts.

The start after that, Perez coughed up seven ER in 4.0 IP against the Washington Nationals.

The righty has gone under this mark in four of his last seven outings.

MLB prop picks made at 10:25 a.m. ET on 09/27/2025.