I’ve got a pair of ATP tennis bets from this weekend’s action in Asia.
The pre-match narrative: Daniil Medvedev has had a dreadful season and is worth fading against Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in the China Open round of 16. Elsewhere, Holger Rune should win comfortably against Jenson Brooksby in Tokyo.
Check out my top tennis predictions for the Sept. 28 matches at the China Open and Japan Open.
Tennis predictions: Japan Open, Sept. 28
Best bet: Davidovich to win (+110)
This line doesn’t make much sense to me.
Medvedev is having the worst season of his professional career, crashing out of the U.S. Open, French Open and Wimbledon in the opening rounds.
The Russian also just lost to ATP No. 158 Yibing Wu last week and has an awful 14-10 record on hard courts this season.
I won’t let his recent win over Cameron Norrie cloud my judgment.
Medvedev hasn’t won consecutive matches on hard court since Indian Wells in March, and Davidovich Fokina is no slouch.
The Spaniard is 21-12 on hard court this year. He reached the finals in the Citi DC Open, Mexico Open, and Delray Beach Open.
He lost all of those finals in heartbreaking fashion, mind you. But he beat players like Taylor Fritz (twice), Ben Shelton, Frances Tiafoe and Denis Shapovalov to get there.
Key stat: Davidovich Fokina is 8-2 in his last 10 hard-court matches (not counting two losses where he was forced to retire with an injury).
Japan Open best bet: Brooksby vs. Rune
Rune -3.5 games (-112): Rune is having his best-ever season on hard courts, compiling a 17-8 record with a finals appearance at Indian Wells earlier in the year.
He’s picked up a pair of decisive wins at this event, beating Hamad Medjedovic (7-6, 6-1) and Ethan Quinn (6-4, 6-2).
Rune converted over 50% of his break points in those matches and landed his first serve north of 65% of the time.
Now, he faces a low-ranking American with a mediocre 8-8 record on hard courts this season.
Brooksby is 1-4 against top-20-ranked ATP players on hard courts this season, failing to cover this spread in each loss.
I trust the Dane to get the job done.
Tennis predictions made at 12:41 p.m. on 09/27/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.