Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.
Golf’s biggest event is back this weekend as Team Europe and USA battle for the Ryder Cup at Bethpage Black.
The latest: Europe is coming off a resounding home victory, but is an underdog in an attempt to become the first squad to win a road Ryder Cup since 2012 (when it prevailed over the U.S. at Medinah). The Americans have set up the course for scoring and are bringing four rookies to Bethpage.
Check out my Ryder Cup predictions for the 2025 tournament, featuring Robert MacIntyre and Cameron Young.
Ryder Cup predictions
Best bet: Europe to win (+160)
The home team has won five consecutive Ryder Cups in dominant fashion.
There’s an inherent advantage in playing in front of one’s supporters while controlling course setup and session order — the hosts have won by at least five points in every event since 2012.
But something has to give, right?
I think Europe’s combination of experience, form, and top-end talent will reign supreme at this event.
Luke Donald is bringing back 11 of his 12 team members from Rome’s victory, swapping out Nicolai Hojgaard for his twin brother, Rasmus.
Of those returning, eight are playing in a third Ryder Cup, with experience stateside. The outliers are Sepp Straka (who will likely play just three sessions), Ludvig Aberg and MacIntyre.
Aberg and MacIntyre both shone as rookies and have steely demeanours under pressure.
The Americans won by a record 10 points when this was last held in the U.S., but their team looks much different now. Dustin Johnson, who scored five points, is gone, while Xander Schauffele and Collin Morikawa have fallen off.
Schauffele hasn’t played since mid-August and is having a career-worst year, while Morikawa has just one top-10 finish since the Masters.
And while Scottie Scheffler is the best player on earth, his 2-2-3 Ryder Cup record leaves a lot to be desired.
I anticipate Europe will flip the pressure onto the hosts quickly and thrive in an underdog role.
Key stat: Four of the top six players in strokes gained over the last three months are European.
Young top American rookie pointscorer (+200): All signs point to Young being paired with Bryson DeChambeau in foursomes.
The two play a unique Pro V1x Double Dot prototype and own complementary games (long off-the-tee, strong putters).
Assuming he plays one fourball session, too, that will put him in a great spot to beat out names like Russell Henley, J.J. Spaun and Ben Griffin.
It’s worth noting Henley is likely to play with Scheffler, which is why he’s a slight +163 favourite. But I think the DeChambeau/Young pairing has strong upside, and I want to ride the hot hand.
Young ranks second in strokes gained in this event over the last 20 rounds.
MacIntyre top GB/Ireland pointscorer (+600): This is a bit of a dart throw, considering MacIntyre has to compete with Tommy Fleetwood and Rory McIlroy.
But I think the Scotsman is a dog who is primed to rise to the occasion.
As a rookie, MacIntyre went 2-0-1, securing 2.5 points for a victorious Team Europe.
He’s a much better player now than then, winning the 2024 Canadian and Scottish Opens, and nearly taking home the U.S. Open this year.
“Big shot Bob” has risen to the occasion under pressure – hence the nickname — and Donald should be eager to get him four sessions this time around.
Ryder Cup predictions made at 10:11 a.m. on 09/24/2025.
Golf’s biggest event is back this weekend as Team Europe and USA battle for the Ryder Cup at Bethpage Black.
The latest: Europe is coming off a resounding home victory, but is an underdog in an attempt to become the first squad to win a road Ryder Cup since 2012 (when it prevailed over the U.S. at Medinah). The Americans have set up the course for scoring and are bringing four rookies to Bethpage.
Check out my Ryder Cup predictions for the 2025 tournament, featuring Robert MacIntyre and Cameron Young.
Ryder Cup predictions
Best bet: Europe to win (+160)
The home team has won five consecutive Ryder Cups in dominant fashion.
There’s an inherent advantage in playing in front of one’s supporters while controlling course setup and session order — the hosts have won by at least five points in every event since 2012.
But something has to give, right?
I think Europe’s combination of experience, form, and top-end talent will reign supreme at this event.
Luke Donald is bringing back 11 of his 12 team members from Rome’s victory, swapping out Nicolai Hojgaard for his twin brother, Rasmus.
Of those returning, eight are playing in a third Ryder Cup, with experience stateside. The outliers are Sepp Straka (who will likely play just three sessions), Ludvig Aberg and MacIntyre.
Aberg and MacIntyre both shone as rookies and have steely demeanours under pressure.
The Americans won by a record 10 points when this was last held in the U.S., but their team looks much different now. Dustin Johnson, who scored five points, is gone, while Xander Schauffele and Collin Morikawa have fallen off.
Schauffele hasn’t played since mid-August and is having a career-worst year, while Morikawa has just one top-10 finish since the Masters.
And while Scottie Scheffler is the best player on earth, his 2-2-3 Ryder Cup record leaves a lot to be desired.
I anticipate Europe will flip the pressure onto the hosts quickly and thrive in an underdog role.
Key stat: Four of the top six players in strokes gained over the last three months are European.
Golf picks
Young top American rookie pointscorer (+175): All signs point to Young being paired with Bryson DeChambeau in foursomes.
The two play a unique Pro V1x Double Dot prototype and own complementary games (long off-the-tee, strong putters).
Assuming he plays one fourball session, too, that will put him in a great spot to beat out names like Russell Henley, J.J. Spaun and Ben Griffin.
It’s worth noting Henley is likely to play with Scheffler, which is why he’s a slight +162 favourite. But I think the DeChambeau/Young pairing has strong upside, and I want to ride the hot hand.
Young ranks second in strokes gained in this event over the last 20 rounds.
MacIntyre top GB/Ireland pointscorer (+700): This is a bit of a dart throw, considering MacIntyre has to compete with Tommy Fleetwood and Rory McIlroy.
But I think the Scotsman is a dog who is primed to rise to the occasion.
As a rookie, MacIntyre went 2-0-1, securing 2.5 points for a victorious Team Europe.
He’s a much better player now than then, winning the 2024 Canadian and Scottish Opens, and nearly taking home the U.S. Open this year.
“Big shot Bob” has risen to the occasion under pressure – hence the nickname — and Donald should be eager to get him four sessions this time around.
Ryder Cup predictions made at 10:11 a.m. on 09/24/2025.
The Toronto Blue Jays are now in a dog fight to win the AL East with four games to play.
The latest: Toronto became the first AL team to lock up a postseason spot on Sunday. But after a pair of losses to the Boston Red Sox this week, combined with a pair of wins by the New York Yankees, the Jays’ divisional lead has vanished.
Check out our Blue Jays AL East odds as of Sept. 25, 2025.
Blue Jays AL East odds
Note: Updated odds that reflect Wednesday’s results are unavailable as of Thursday morning.
I’m sure Jays fans would prefer a less stressful end to the season, but this is what it’s all about, right?
Toronto has already well exceeded its preseason win projection and remains in a strong spot to lock up the division despite its recent 1-6 speed bump.
The Jays hold head-to-head tiebreakers over both the Yankees and Red Sox.
FanGraphs gives Toronto a 54.1% chance of winning the AL East entering play on Sept. 25.
With four games to play, Toronto still controls its own destiny for the AL East crown.
Toronto’s final stretch includes one game against both the Boston Red Sox and three against the Tampa Bay Rays, with the former still technically having a chance to win the division (0.1% chance, per FanGraphs).
The Jays are 7-5 against Boston this year and are slated to start Louis Varland in Thursday’s series finale.
New York, meanwhile, has one more game against the dreadful Chicago White Sox, followed by three games against the Baltimore Orioles.
The Yankees recently took three of four from the O’s at Camden Yards (Sept. 18-21), and the White Sox have an AL-worst 58 wins.
Toronto is still in pole position, but its margin of error is gone now.
The two-year wait is almost over. And our Ryder Cup betting guide is here to prepare you with everything you need to know about one of sport’s most exciting events.
For the 45th edition of the biannual tournament, New York’s notorious Bethpage Black will host what most expect will be another event full of drama, emotion, and legacy-defining opportunities.
Luke Donald once again captains the European side. Crossing the Atlantic with him are 11 of the 12 players from Europe’s successful 2023 squad in Rome. Should Donald’s men deliver again this week, they would become the first side to win a road Ryder Cup since 2012, when Europe prevailed at Medinah outside Chicago.
Conversely, the Americans, led by captain Keegan Bradley, will field a squad featuring four rookies. Team USA is banking on recent trends and the expected raucous N.Y. galleries to be on their side. It’s also worth noting that the U.S. won by a record 10-point margin the last time the event was held on their home soil (2021 at Whistling Straits).
Will we see a European upset? Or another home American rout?
Whether you’re a golf nut, a “catch the back-nine on Sunday” fan, or a Ryder Cup rookie, the event is appointment viewing with unique and exciting betting options unlike your typical golf tournament.
TeamEurope: There’s only one change to the roster from two years ago. And it stayed within the family at that, as Dane Nicolai Hojgaard replaces his twin brother, Rasmus.
TeamU.S.A.: Bradley was playing well enough this year to have selected himself to the team as a playing captain. But after a long and heavily scrutinized process, he left himself off the team to focus on his captaincy.
His four rookies include J.J. Spaun, Russell Henley, Ben Griffin, and Cam Young. The latter two were debatable choices as captain’s picks.
Here’s a look at the two sides’ rosters along with their career Ryder Cup records.
Ryder Cup Betting Guide: Match Play
This isn’t your typical PGA Tour event. Golfers aren’t playing 72 holes over four days. And the lowest score to par won’t determine who wins.
The Ryder Cup is match play. In this case, 28 pressure-packed matches over three days and five sessions.
So, how does matchplay work?
Each hole is its own contest. Whoever takes fewer strokes ‘wins’ the hole. Same scores on a hole are ‘halves,’ and the match score is kept by determining how many holes “up” or “down” someone is based on the number of holes they’ve won. Matches end when a player or team is ahead by more holes than remain (i.e up three holes with only 17 and 18 to play).
Each of the 28 Ryder Cup matches is worth one point. Halved (tied) matches after 18 are worth 0.5 apiece.
As current cup holders, Europe only needs 14 points to retain the trophy, while Team USA must earn 14.5 to take it from them.
Ryder Cup format and session schedule
The event is played over three days, with five total sessions:
Friday morning: Four foursomes matches
Friday afternoon: Four fourball matches
Saturday morning: Four foursomes matches
Saturday afternoon: Four fourball matches
Sunday: 12 singles matches
The host team determines the order of the first four sessions. And when you look at the numbers, it seems like a no-brainer that the Americans would roll with foursomes first.
The U.S. owns a 9-3-1 record in Ryder Cups in which foursomes have led off play on both Friday and Saturday.
In foursomes play, teams of two play the same ball and alternate shots. One team member tees off on odd-numbered holes and the other on even-numbered holes. Notable USA foursomes records: Morikawa (2-1-0), Scheffler (0-2-0), DeChambeau (0-2-0) Notable Europe foursomes records: Rose (7-2-1), McIlroy (7-5-1), Fleetwood (4-0-0)
Fourball sessions will follow the foursomes on both Friday and Saturday afternoon. The difference here is the two players on each side play their own ball. The lowest score among the four golfers wins the hole. Notable USA fourball records: Morikawa (2-1-0), Cantlay (1-0-1) Notable Europe fourball records: McIlroy (5-6-2), Hovland (0-2-2)
Sunday’s singles feature 12 one-on-one matches, with the two captains submitting their lineups the night before via a blind draw. Notable USA singles records (win-loss-tie): Thomas (3-0-0) Notable Europe singles records: McIlroy (4-2-1), Fitzpatrick (0-3-0)
This table, provided by DataGolf’s Letzig’s Latest newsletter, shows us the percentage of points earned by both teams since 1983:
Fourball: The Europeans have dominated four-ball and are the only team with a winning record in any of the three formats on the road.
More fourball: While the Europeans have won over half of all fourball matches on American soil since ‘83, the U.S. side went 5-3 in the format at the 2021 Ryder Cup at Whistling Straits.
Foursomes: Europe dominated foursomes two years ago in Rome, going 7-1. Two years before that, in Wisconsin, the USA went 6-2.
Newbies: European rookies have struggled on the road, picking up just 42.3% of possible points. That number goes north of 50% for second-timers, though. Perhaps that’s why Donald is bringing back all but one of his players from two years ago.
More newbies: American rookies, meanwhile, have risen to the occasion at home Ryder Cups, picking up a whopping 56.3% of points. With four rookies on the 2025 roster, Bradley is banking on that trend continuing.
Ryder Cup Betting Guide: Unique Markets
Betting-wise, just like a regular PGA Tour event, you can wager on the event winner (USA or Europe). But the similarities end there.
On top of backing individual match winners, you can also bet on unique markets such as day winners, top points getters (U.S.A., Europe, overall), player point over/unders, and more!
Let’s use Day 1 as an example. The U.S. is -110 to win, Europe is a +150 underdog, and a tie is +500. If the Americans were to win 4.5 of the possible eight points after Day 1 (Friday), their side of the wager would cash.
Scheffler is +450 to be the top overall points scorer, with McIlroy behind him at +800. The Northern Irishman went 4-1-0 in 2023, pacing the tournament with four points.
If you believe Team USA will win by margin, you can back them on a -2.5 tournament handicap at +125.
The Americans have won each of the last two home Ryder Cups by at least six points.
Ryder Cup Betting Guide: Course Setup
Bethpage Black has hosted three majors since the turn of the century. Each time it’s been a stern test.
At the 2002 U.S. Open, winner Tiger Woods was the only player to break par. And when Brooks Kopeka won the PGA Championship there 17 years later, he was one of just six players in the red.
But fans expecting carnage this week should temper their expectations.
Former Ryder Cup player and 2014 European captain Paul McGinley gave the lowdown on how Team U.S.A. will set up the course in an interview with Adam Schupak of Golf Week:
“The rough is not as it would be in a U.S. PGA or a U.S. Open … it’s what we expected. It’s right out of the American playbook of what they do when they play at home … (not too thick) rough, greens quite fast, and trying to encourage a fast pace of low scoring.”
Here are some “must-knows” about The Black Course and what separates it from your typical Ryder Cup venue (statistics provided by Aon and DataGolf).
Length: Bethpage played at a beastly 7,459 yards during the 2019 PGA Championship, and is 107 yards shorter this time around.
It featured the fourth-most approach shots of 200+ yards from any course on the PGA Tour in 2019.
Rough: Bethpage’s notoriously thick rough will be cut down, but that doesn’t mean this will be a pure bomb and gauge setup.
Missing the fairway carried nearly a half stroke (+0.44) penalty per shot in 2019.
Distance and accuracy will be paramount off the tee, with length being slightly favoured.
Green speed: McGinley anticipates Bethpage’s greens will run at a 13 on the Stimpmeter, much higher than the PGA Tour average of 11.
Knee-shaking homestretch: Historically, 91% of Ryder Cup matches are decided on holes 15-18. Bethpage’s closing stretch will provide a stern test. From the 2019 PGA:
Two of the last four holes (15, 17) rank in the 95th percentile or higher in putting difficulty.
Players made bogey or worse on the par-4 15th hole 40% of the time.
Players hit the 16th and 17th greens in regulation under 50% of the time.
The top 10 finishers at the 2019 PGA Championship picked up 79% of their strokes gained from tee-to-green. In a match play setting, avoiding a big miss OTT and creating bridie chances are key.
Who fits the bill? Scheffler has gained an average of 2.78 shots per round from T2G over the last year. The gap between him and Jon Rahm (the second-ranked player) is the same as the gap between Rahm and Hatton (24th-ranked).
Edge (U.S.A): Eight of the top 12 players in SG: T2G over the last 12 months are American.
Short game
Players only got up-and-down 48.8% of the time at Bethpage in 2019. That was the lowest rate of any event on the PGA Tour that season.
Who fits the bill? Henley has one of the best short games on tour, ranking top 10 in scrambling and strokes gained around the greens. On the European side, Rahm has the best SG: ARG numbers over the past 12 months.
Edge (U.S.A): However you slice it, the Americans have the higher ceiling in this department with more players in the top eight for SG: ARG over the last six months, and three months.
Guts
A big intangible at the Ryder Cup is pressure. Thousands of loud New Yorkers will be giving the visitors everything they can handle during this event. But the Americans will feel that pressure tenfold if they fall into an early hole.
Who fits the bill: “Big Shot Bob” MacIntyre didn’t earn that moniker for nothing. The Scotsman has come up clutch time and time again and went 2-0-1 as a rookie in 2023. On the other side, I’ll point to Spaun, who was nails in winning the U.S. Open earlier this year (snatching it from MacIntyre).
Edge (Europe): This European squad embraced the underdog mentality last time around and quickly put the Americans behind the 8-ball. Team unity is important, and Donald’s squad has that in spades.
Recent form
Last, but certainly not least, is recent form. Everyone in this tournament is a world-class player, but who is peaking at the right moment?
Who fits the bill? Scheffler is always in form, but Fleetwood hasn’t been far off lately. The Englishman just won his first PGA Tour event and is playing the best golf of his life. McIlroy is also rolling, picking up a win at the Irish Open after a heroic final-round 66.
Edge(Europe): There are too many question marks for Team USA. Schauffele hasn’t played since the BMW Championship and is having a career-worst season. Morikawa has just one top-20 finish since the Masters. Those two major winners could flip the result of this event.
On Thursday evening, pairings will be officially announced for the first session Friday morning. After that, captains will name their pairings for subsequent sessions late morning (for fourballs) and Saturday night (for singles).
Some potential pairings to watch for:
Hovland & Aberg: The Scandinavians played three matches together in 2023, going 2-0-1. They won both foursomes matches, including a 9 & 7 trouncing of Scheffler and Brooks Koepka, the largest margin of victory in Ryder Cup history.
Rahm & Hatton: Europe’s two LIV Ryder Cuppers played both foursomes sessions together in Rome, and were paired together with Hojgaard at the BMW Championship two weeks ago.
Fleetwood & McIlroy: This red-hot duo are undefeated as a Ryder Cup pair, going 2-0-0 in 2023, and both play a TaylorMade TP5 ball.
DeChambeau & Young: Speaking of golf balls, this duo plays a unique Titleist Pro V1x Double Dot prototype and are extremely long hitters. They could overwhelm opponents off the tee.
Scheffler & Henley: This duo played three sessions in the President’s Cup last year (2-0-1), and were paired at the Procore Championship.
Cantlay & Schauffele: These two are best buds and have played as a foursomes pairing in each of the last two Ryder Cups.
Francisco Lindor, Carlos Correa, and Blake Snell headline Wednesday’s MLB prop bets.
Today’s MLB props narrative: The New York Mets and Houston Astros are fighting for their postseason lives, and I expect Lindor and Correa to deliver at the plate for their respective teams. Elsewhere, Snell has solid value to mow down an Arizona Diamondbacks team one game out of a wild-card spot.
Check out how I’m betting on them in the best MLB prop bets for Sept. 24.
New York’s precipitous fall has been shocking, but the squad is getting hot at the right time.
The Mets have won five of their last eight, after losing eight straight, and now control their destiny as the NL’s final wild-card team.
Lindor has been at the forefront of their resurgence and played hero last night, going 2-for-4 with a home run and three RBI in a 9-7 victory over the Chicago Cubs.
Lindor is slashing .341/.432/.591 during his 11-game hitting streak.
In that span, he has scored 14 runs and is 9-2 against this line.
The Mets’ offence has a good chance to stay hot tonight against Chicago’s Matthew Boyd. The southpaw has an ugly 6.54 ERA and 1.52 WHIP over his last six starts.
Lindor has dominated Boyd and will have ample chances to get aboard as the leadoff man on the road.
Key stat: Lindor is 13-for-36 against Boyd with two doubles and a home run.
Best MLB picks
Correa over 1.5 total bases (+115): Houston has lost four straight and is in serious danger of missing the postseason altogether.
Someone will have to step up with Yordan Alvarez and Jermey Pena sidelined, and I think Correa is that man.
The Astros take on Luis Severino and the Athletics in Sacramento, which is a good matchup for several reasons.
Severino has a 6.51 ERA and a .297 opponent batting average at home this year.
Sutter Health Park has been the second-most offensively-friendly environment this year, according to Baseball Savant’s park factors.
Correa is 6-for-19 off Severino with three doubles and a home run.
The veteran shortstop is hitless in his last two outings, but was 3-1 against this line in the four games before that.
Snell over 6.5 strikeouts (+110): This seems like a generous line to back Snell on, who is on a rampage and has a propensity to work deep into ballgames.
The Los Angeles Dodgers southpaw has five quality starts (6.0+ innings pitched, three or fewer earned runs) in his last six appearances.
In that span, he owns a 2.48 ERA and is 3-3 against this line.
Snell’s last two starts were gems, though, as he fanned a combined 23 batters in 13.0 shutout innings.
Arizona is a hard team to retire on strikes, but not for Snell. He has a 28.4% K rate against its lineup in 102 combined plate appearances, and struck out eight Diamondbacks in 5.1 innings on August 29.
MLB prop picks made at 11:40 a.m. ET on 09/24/2025.
Today’s MLB props narrative: The New York Mets and Houston Astros are fighting for their postseason lives, and I expect Lindor and Correa to deliver at the plate for their respective teams. Elsewhere, Snell has solid value to mow down an Arizona Diamondbacks team one game out of a wild-card spot.
Check out how I’m betting on them in the best MLB prop bets for Sept. 24.
MLB prop bets
Best bet: Lindor to score (+117)
New York’s precipitous fall has been shocking, but the squad is getting hot at the right time.
The Mets have won five of their last eight, after losing eight straight, and now control their destiny as the NL’s final wild-card team.
Lindor has been at the forefront of their resurgence and played hero last night, going 2-for-4 with a home run and three RBI in a 9-7 victory over the Chicago Cubs.
Lindor is slashing .341/.432/.591 during his 11-game hitting streak.
In that span, he has scored 14 runs and is 9-2 against this line.
The Mets’ offence has a good chance to stay hot tonight against Chicago’s Matthew Boyd. The southpaw has an ugly 6.54 ERA and 1.52 WHIP over his last six starts.
Lindor has dominated Boyd and will have ample chances to get aboard as the leadoff man on the road.
Key stat: Lindor is 13-for-36 against Boyd with two doubles and a home run.
Correa over 1.5 total bases (+100): Houston has lost four straight and is in serious danger of missing the postseason altogether.
Someone will have to step up with Yordan Alvarez and Jermey Pena sidelined, and I think Correa is that man.
The Astros take on Luis Severino and the Athletics in Sacramento, which is a good matchup for several reasons.
Severino has a 6.51 ERA and a .297 opponent batting average at home this year.
Sutter Health Park has been the second-most offensively-friendly environment this year, according to Baseball Savant’s park factors.
Correa is 6-for-19 off Severino with three doubles and a home run.
The veteran shortstop is hitless in his last two outings, but was 3-1 against this line in the four games before that.
Snell over 6.5 strikeouts (+114): This seems like a generous line to back Snell on, who is on a rampage and has a propensity to work deep into ballgames.
The Los Angeles Dodgers southpaw has five quality starts (6.0+ innings pitched, three or fewer earned runs) in his last six appearances.
In that span, he owns a 2.48 ERA and is 3-3 against this line.
Snell’s last two starts were gems, though, as he fanned a combined 23 batters in 13.0 shutout innings.
Arizona is a hard team to retire on strikes, but not for Snell. He has a 28.4% K rate against its lineup in 102 combined plate appearances, and struck out eight Diamondbacks in 5.1 innings on August 29.
MLB prop picks made at 11:40 a.m. ET on 09/24/2025.
The undefeated Tampa Bay Buccaneers headline this week’s upset picks.
The pregame narrative: Baker Mayfield and Co. are rolling, but they sit as 3-point home underdogs against the Philadelphia Eagles as of Monday afternoon. The Eagles narrowly escaped as home favourites last week and have lost back-to-back games against the Bucs.
Check out my top Week 4 NFL upset picks, featuring a pick on the Tennessee Titans against the Houston Texans.
It’s time to put some respect on the Buccaneers’ name.
Tampa Bay is 9-2 since its Week 11 bye last season, with the losses coming by a combined six points. In that span, the squad is averaging a blistering 28.6 PPG.
You could argue that the Bucs haven’t beaten a quality opponent yet this season, with wins over the Atlanta Falcons, Houston Texans, and New York Jets (combined 1-8 record).
And maybe that’s true, but I want to focus on the positives.
Mayfield has been stellar: The veteran signal-caller is averaging 243.6 yards of offence per game with six passing touchdowns and no interceptions.
Elite run defence: Led by Vita Vea, Tampa Bay allows the fifth-fewest yards per rush and ranks first in defensive EPA per rush (-0.353), per RBSDM.com.
Philadelphia loves to pound the rock, topping the league in run play percentage (54.10%), so it will be interesting to see which side wins out in the trenches.
The Eagles have barely scraped by this season, needing a last-second blocked field goal to down the Los Angeles Rams at home in Week 3.
Key stat: Tampa Bay is 6-1 in its last seven games against Philadelphia, beating the Eagles 33-16 in Week 4 last year.
NFL underdog predictions
Titans moneyline (+275): Houston, we have a problem.
Was C.J. Stroud’s rookie season a complete fraud? It’s starting to look that way. The third-year quarterback has been horrible so far, ranking 20th or worse in several major statistical categories:
64.0% completion percentage (20th)
199.7 passing yards/game (25th)
40.0 QBR (26th)
He’s also taken the sixth-most sacks (seven), and Houston’s offensive line ranks 24th in pass block win rate (56%).
The Titans are also bad, mind you, which is why they’re touchdown underdogs against a winless team.
But I can’t get behind the Texans in any capacity right now, and think this is a solid spot to back the 2025 No. 1 overall pick, Cam Ward, who is searching for his first win.
NFL upset picks made at 2:47 p.m. ET on 09/22/2025.
The undefeated Tampa Bay Buccaneers headline this week’s upset picks.
The pregame narrative: Baker Mayfield and Co. are rolling, but they sit as 3-point home underdogs against the Philadelphia Eagles as of Monday afternoon. The Eagles narrowly escaped as home favourites last week and have lost back-to-back games against the Bucs.
Check out my top Week 4 NFL upset picks, featuring a pick on the Tennessee Titans against the Houston Texans.
NFL upset picks: Week 4
Best bet: Buccaneers moneyline (+128)
It’s time to put some respect on the Buccaneers’ name.
Tampa Bay is 9-2 since its Week 11 bye last season, with the losses coming by a combined six points. In that span, the squad is averaging a blistering 28.6 PPG.
You could argue that the Bucs haven’t beaten a quality opponent yet this season, with wins over the Atlanta Falcons, Houston Texans, and New York Jets (combined 1-8 record).
And maybe that’s true, but I want to focus on the positives.
Mayfield has been stellar: The veteran signal-caller is averaging 243.6 yards of offence per game with six passing touchdowns and no interceptions.
Elite run defence: Led by Vita Vea, Tampa Bay allows the fifth-fewest yards per rush and ranks first in defensive EPA per rush (-0.353), per RBSDM.com.
Philadelphia loves to pound the rock, topping the league in run play percentage (54.10%), so it will be interesting to see which side wins out in the trenches.
The Eagles have barely scraped by this season, needing a last-second blocked field goal to down the Los Angeles Rams at home in Week 3.
Key stat: Tampa Bay is 6-1 in its last seven games against Philadelphia, beating the Eagles 33-16 in Week 4 last year.
Titans moneyline (+290): Houston, we have a problem.
Was C.J. Stroud’s rookie season a complete fraud? It’s starting to look that way. The third-year quarterback has been horrible so far, ranking 20th or worse in several major statistical categories:
64.0% completion percentage (20th)
199.7 passing yards/game (25th)
40.0 QBR (26th)
He’s also taken the sixth-most sacks (seven), and Houston’s offensive line ranks 24th in pass block win rate (56%).
The Titans are also bad, mind you, which is why they’re touchdown underdogs against a winless team.
But I can’t get behind the Texans in any capacity right now, and think this is a solid spot to back the 2025 No. 1 overall pick, Cam Ward, who is searching for his first win.
NFL upset picks made at 2:47 p.m. ET on 09/22/2025.
The two-year wait is almost over. And our Ryder Cup betting guide is here to prepare you with everything you need to know about one of sport’s most exciting events.
For the 45th edition of the biannual tournament, New York’s notorious Bethpage Black will host what most expect will be another event full of drama, emotion, and legacy-defining opportunities.
Luke Donald once again captains the European side. Crossing the Atlantic with him are 11 of the 12 players from Europe’s successful 2023 squad in Rome. Should Donald’s men deliver again this week, they would become the first side to win a road Ryder Cup since 2012, when Europe prevailed at Medinah outside Chicago.
Conversely, the Americans, led by captain Keegan Bradley, will field a squad featuring four rookies. Team USA is banking on recent trends and the expected raucous N.Y. galleries to be on their side. It’s also worth noting that the U.S. won by a record 10-point margin the last time the event was held on their home soil (2021 at Whistling Straits).
Will we see a European upset? Or another home American rout?
Whether you’re a golf nut, a “catch the back-nine on Sunday” fan, or a Ryder Cup rookie, the event is appointment viewing with unique and exciting betting options unlike your typical golf tournament.
TeamEurope: There’s only one change to the roster from two years ago. And it stayed within the family at that, as Dane Nicolai Hojgaard replaces his twin brother, Rasmus.
TeamU.S.A.: Bradley was playing well enough this year to have selected himself to the team as a playing captain. But after a long and heavily scrutinized process, he left himself off the team to focus on his captaincy.
His four rookies include J.J. Spaun, Russell Henley, Ben Griffin, and Cam Young. The latter two were debatable choices as captain’s picks.
Here’s a look at the two sides’ rosters along with their career Ryder Cup records.
Ryder Cup Betting Guide: Match Play
This isn’t your typical PGA Tour event. Golfers aren’t playing 72 holes over four days. And the lowest score to par won’t determine who wins.
The Ryder Cup is match play. In this case, 28 pressure-packed matches over three days and five sessions.
So, how does matchplay work?
Each hole is its own contest. Whoever takes fewer strokes ‘wins’ the hole. Same scores on a hole are ‘halves,’ and the match score is kept by determining how many holes “up” or “down” someone is based on the number of holes they’ve won. Matches end when a player or team is ahead by more holes than remain (i.e up three holes with only 17 and 18 to play).
Each of the 28 Ryder Cup matches is worth one point. Halved (tied) matches after 18 are worth 0.5 apiece.
As current cup holders, Europe only needs 14 points to retain the trophy, while Team USA must earn 14.5 to take it from them.
The event is played over three days, with five total sessions:
Friday morning: Four foursomes matches
Friday afternoon: Four fourball matches
Saturday morning: Four foursomes matches
Saturday afternoon: Four fourball matches
Sunday: 12 singles matches
The host team determines the order of the first four sessions. And when you look at the numbers, it seems like a no-brainer that the Americans would roll with foursomes first.
The U.S. owns a 9-3-1 record in Ryder Cups in which foursomes have led off play on both Friday and Saturday.
In foursomes play, teams of two play the same ball and alternate shots. One team member tees off on odd-numbered holes and the other on even-numbered holes. Notable USA foursomes records: Morikawa (2-1-0), Scheffler (0-2-0), DeChambeau (0-2-0) Notable Europe foursomes records: Rose (7-2-1), McIlroy (7-5-1), Fleetwood (4-0-0)
Fourball sessions will follow the foursomes on both Friday and Saturday afternoon. The difference here is the two players on each side play their own ball. The lowest score among the four golfers wins the hole. Notable USA fourball records: Morikawa (2-1-0), Cantlay (1-0-1) Notable Europe fourball records: McIlroy (5-6-2), Hovland (0-2-2)
Sunday’s singles feature 12 one-on-one matches, with the two captains submitting their lineups the night before via a blind draw. Notable USA singles records (win-loss-tie): Thomas (3-0-0) Notable Europe singles records: McIlroy (4-2-1), Fitzpatrick (0-3-0)
This table, provided by DataGolf’s Letzig’s Latest newsletter, shows us the percentage of points earned by both teams since 1983:
Fourball: The Europeans have dominated four-ball and are the only team with a winning record in any of the three formats on the road.
More fourball: While the Europeans have won over half of all fourball matches on American soil since ‘83, the U.S. side went 5-3 in the format at the 2021 Ryder Cup at Whistling Straits.
Foursomes: Europe dominated foursomes two years ago in Rome, going 7-1. Two years before that, in Wisconsin, the USA went 6-2.
Newbies: European rookies have struggled on the road, picking up just 42.3% of possible points. That number goes north of 50% for second-timers, though. Perhaps that’s why Donald is bringing back all but one of his players from two years ago.
More newbies: American rookies, meanwhile, have risen to the occasion at home Ryder Cups, picking up a whopping 56.3% of points. With four rookies on the 2025 roster, Bradley is banking on that trend continuing.
Ryder Cup Betting Guide: Unique Markets
Betting-wise, just like a regular PGA Tour event, you can wager on the event winner (USA or Europe). But the similarities end there.
On top of backing individual match winners, you can also bet on unique markets such as day winners, top points getters (U.S.A., Europe, overall), player point over/unders, and more!
Let’s use Day 1 as an example. The U.S. is -106 to win, Europe is a +150 underdog, and a tie is +500. If the Americans were to win 4.5 of the possible eight points after Day 1 (Friday), their side of the wager would cash.
Scheffler is +550 to be the top overall points scorer, with McIlroy behind him at +1,000. The Northern Irishman went 4-1-0 in 2023, pacing the tournament with four points.
If you believe Team USA will win by margin, you can back them on a -2.5 tournament handicap at +130.
The Americans have won each of the last two home Ryder Cups by at least six points.
Bethpage Black has hosted three majors since the turn of the century. Each time it’s been a stern test.
At the 2002 U.S. Open, winner Tiger Woods was the only player to break par. And when Brooks Kopeka won the PGA Championship there 17 years later, he was one of just six players in the red.
But fans expecting carnage this week should temper their expectations.
Former Ryder Cup player and 2014 European captain Paul McGinley gave the lowdown on how Team U.S.A. will set up the course in an interview with Adam Schupak of Golf Week:
“The rough is not as it would be in a U.S. PGA or a U.S. Open … it’s what we expected. It’s right out of the American playbook of what they do when they play at home … (not too thick) rough, greens quite fast, and trying to encourage a fast pace of low scoring.”
Here are some “must-knows” about The Black Course and what separates it from your typical Ryder Cup venue (statistics provided by Aon and DataGolf).
Length: Bethpage played at a beastly 7,459 yards during the 2019 PGA Championship, and is 107 yards shorter this time around.
It featured the fourth-most approach shots of 200+ yards from any course on the PGA Tour in 2019.
Rough: Bethpage’s notoriously thick rough will be cut down, but that doesn’t mean this will be a pure bomb and gauge setup.
Missing the fairway carried nearly a half stroke (+0.44) penalty per shot in 2019.
Distance and accuracy will be paramount off the tee, with length being slightly favoured.
Green speed: McGinley anticipates Bethpage’s greens will run at a 13 on the Stimpmeter, much higher than the PGA Tour average of 11.
Knee-shaking homestretch: Historically, 91% of Ryder Cup matches are decided on holes 15-18. Bethpage’s closing stretch will provide a stern test. From the 2019 PGA:
Two of the last four holes (15, 17) rank in the 95th percentile or higher in putting difficulty.
Players made bogey or worse on the par-4 15th hole 40% of the time.
Players hit the 16th and 17th greens in regulation under 50% of the time.
The top 10 finishers at the 2019 PGA Championship picked up 79% of their strokes gained from tee-to-green. In a match play setting, avoiding a big miss OTT and creating bridie chances are key.
Who fits the bill? Scheffler has gained an average of 2.78 shots per round from T2G over the last year. The gap between him and Jon Rahm (the second-ranked player) is the same as the gap between Rahm and Hatton (24th-ranked).
Edge (U.S.A): Eight of the top 12 players in SG: T2G over the last 12 months are American.
Short game
Players only got up-and-down 48.8% of the time at Bethpage in 2019. That was the lowest rate of any event on the PGA Tour that season.
Who fits the bill? Henley has one of the best short games on tour, ranking top 10 in scrambling and strokes gained around the greens. On the European side, Rahm has the best SG: ARG numbers over the past 12 months.
Edge (U.S.A): However you slice it, the Americans have the higher ceiling in this department with more players in the top eight for SG: ARG over the last six months, and three months.
Guts
A big intangible at the Ryder Cup is pressure. Thousands of loud New Yorkers will be giving the visitors everything they can handle during this event. But the Americans will feel that pressure tenfold if they fall into an early hole.
Who fits the bill: “Big Shot Bob” MacIntyre didn’t earn that moniker for nothing. The Scotsman has come up clutch time and time again and went 2-0-1 as a rookie in 2023. On the other side, I’ll point to Spaun, who was nails in winning the U.S. Open earlier this year (snatching it from MacIntyre).
Edge (Europe): This European squad embraced the underdog mentality last time around and quickly put the Americans behind the 8-ball. Team unity is important, and Donald’s squad has that in spades.
Recent form
Last, but certainly not least, is recent form. Everyone in this tournament is a world-class player, but who is peaking at the right moment?
Who fits the bill? Scheffler is always in form, but Fleetwood hasn’t been far off lately. The Englishman just won his first PGA Tour event and is playing the best golf of his life. McIlroy is also rolling, picking up a win at the Irish Open after a heroic final-round 66.
Edge(Europe): There are too many question marks for Team USA. Schauffele hasn’t played since the BMW Championship and is having a career-worst season. Morikawa has just one top-20 finish since the Masters. Those two major winners could flip the result of this event.
On Thursday evening, pairings will be officially announced for the first session Friday morning. After that, captains will name their pairings for subsequent sessions late morning (for fourballs) and Saturday night (for singles).
Some potential pairings to watch for:
Hovland & Aberg: The Scandinavians played three matches together in 2023, going 2-0-1. They won both foursomes matches, including a 9 & 7 trouncing of Scheffler and Brooks Koepka, the largest margin of victory in Ryder Cup history.
Rahm & Hatton: Europe’s two LIV Ryder Cuppers played both foursomes sessions together in Rome, and were paired together with Hojgaard at the BMW Championship two weeks ago.
Fleetwood & McIlroy: This red-hot duo are undefeated as a Ryder Cup pair, going 2-0-0 in 2023, and both play a TaylorMade TP5 ball.
DeChambeau & Young: Speaking of golf balls, this duo plays a unique Titleist Pro V1x Double Dot prototype and are extremely long hitters. They could overwhelm opponents off the tee.
Scheffler & Henley: This duo played three sessions in the President’s Cup last year (2-0-1), and were paired at the Procore Championship.
Cantlay & Schauffele: These two are best buds and have played as a foursomes pairing in each of the last two Ryder Cups.
Tonight’s matchup between the Detroit Lions and Baltimore Ravens features a sky-high game total, making it a perfect target for TD wagers.
The pregame narrative: Detroit and Baltimore owned the Nos. 1 and 3 scoring offences last year, and they’re averaging a combined 66.5 points this year. The Ravens are 5-point favourites at the time of writing, and this 53-point projected total is the highest of any matchup in Week 3.
Check out our top Lions vs. Ravens SNF TD picks on David Montgomery and Zay Flowers.
Montgomery is the No. 2 option in his timeshare with Jahmyr Gibbs, logging a sub-40% snap count in both games so far.
But the powerful running back has led the charge near the goal line, which is what’s important for this wager.
Take a look at how the Lions have distributed their touches within the 20, 10 and 5-yard line:
Inside 20: Montgomery (7), Gibbs (9)
Inside 10: Montgomery (4), Gibbs (2)
Inside 5: Montgomery (3), Gibbs (0)
Detroit has logged a league-best 5.5 red zone scoring attempts per game so far, with seven trips to the red zone at home in Week 2.
Baltimore’s pass defence has been suspect so far, and I expect Jared Goff and Co. to move the ball down the field before turning to the rush attack at the goal line.
Key stat: Montgomery scored in 11 of 16 regular-season games last year.
Monday Night Football TD picks
Flowers to score a TD (+100): Flowers has been a beast through two games so far, catching 14 of 20 targets for 218 yards and a score.
He hasn’t received a red zone target yet, but Baltimore has only opted to throw the ball five times inside the 20-yard line through two games.
That’s bound to change at some point.
Flowers has been Lamar Jackson’s favourite target so far, logging 50.9% of the team’s air yards, while being targeted on 37.7% of all routes run (both rank in the 90th-plus percentile for WRs, per Rotowire).
The Lions have some injuries on defence, with Marcus Davenport out, and Jack Campbell and Kerby Joseph both listed as questionable.
Baltimore should have its fair share of scoring opportunities, and once it’s in the red zone, I believe Flowers will get a few great looks.
Lions vs. Ravens TD picks made at 10:12 a.m. ET on 09/22/2025.
