The undefeated Tampa Bay Buccaneers headline this week’s upset picks.
The pregame narrative: Baker Mayfield and Co. are rolling, but they sit as 3-point home underdogs against the Philadelphia Eagles as of Monday afternoon. The Eagles narrowly escaped as home favourites last week and have lost back-to-back games against the Bucs.
Check out my top Week 4 NFL upset picks, featuring a pick on the Tennessee Titans against the Houston Texans.
NFL upset picks: Week 4
Best bet: Buccaneers moneyline (+135)
It’s time to put some respect on the Buccaneers’ name.
Tampa Bay is 9-2 since its Week 11 bye last season, with the losses coming by a combined six points. In that span, the squad is averaging a blistering 28.6 PPG.
You could argue that the Bucs haven’t beaten a quality opponent yet this season, with wins over the Atlanta Falcons, Houston Texans, and New York Jets (combined 1-8 record).
And maybe that’s true, but I want to focus on the positives.
- Mayfield has been stellar: The veteran signal-caller is averaging 243.6 yards of offence per game with six passing touchdowns and no interceptions.
- Elite run defence: Led by Vita Vea, Tampa Bay allows the fifth-fewest yards per rush and ranks first in defensive EPA per rush (-0.353), per RBSDM.com.
Philadelphia loves to pound the rock, topping the league in run play percentage (54.10%), so it will be interesting to see which side wins out in the trenches.
The Eagles have barely scraped by this season, needing a last-second blocked field goal to down the Los Angeles Rams at home in Week 3.
Key stat: Tampa Bay is 6-1 in its last seven games against Philadelphia, beating the Eagles 33-16 in Week 4 last year.
NFL underdog predictions
Titans moneyline (+275): Houston, we have a problem.
Was C.J. Stroud’s rookie season a complete fraud? It’s starting to look that way. The third-year quarterback has been horrible so far, ranking 20th or worse in several major statistical categories:
- 64.0% completion percentage (20th)
- 199.7 passing yards/game (25th)
- 40.0 QBR (26th)
He’s also taken the sixth-most sacks (seven), and Houston’s offensive line ranks 24th in pass block win rate (56%).
The Titans are also bad, mind you, which is why they’re touchdown underdogs against a winless team.
But I can’t get behind the Texans in any capacity right now, and think this is a solid spot to back the 2025 No. 1 overall pick, Cam Ward, who is searching for his first win.
NFL upset picks made at 2:47 p.m. ET on 09/22/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.