I’ve got three touchdown picks from Week 4’s Monday Night Football doubleheader.
The pregame narrative: Justin Fields returns under centre for the New York Jets, who are searching for their first win of the year against the also-winless Miami Dolphins. I expect Fields to score, and am also taking a +325 swing on a second-stringer on Miami.
Check out my top anytime touchdown scorer picks for Sept. 29, featuring a best bet on Denver Broncos RB, J.K. Dobbins.
Anytime touchdown scorer picks
Best bet: Dobbins to score a TD (-134)
This seems like a no-brainer to me.
Dobbins has battled through injuries his entire career, but is settling in nicely as Denver’s bell cow through three games.
He’s rumbled for 222 yards (74.0 per game) and has found the end zone in every game.
The veteran is the only RB on the Broncos’ roster to have received a carry inside the red zone so far. He’s turned eight attempts into 48 yards and three TDs.
Now, Dobbins gets to face a Cincinnati Bengals team that couldn’t stop a nosebleed.
Cincy’s defence is allowing 30.3 PPG and ranks 27th in EPA per rush, according to RBSDM.com.
I don’t typically like to play TD scorers at odds like this, but Dobbins has been effective as the team’s lead RB and deserves a look.
Ket Stat: Dobbins has scored 12 TDs in his last 16 regular-season games.
Jets vs. Dolphins TD picks
Fields to score a TD (+210): Fields flashed his ceiling in a Week 1 matchup against the Pittsburgh Steelers, completing 16-of-22 passes for 218 yards and a score, while rushing for two touchdowns on the ground.
He was knocked out of the following game against the Buffalo Bills, but still turned five carries into 49 yards in that matchup.
Miami has struggled to keep opposing QBs in check so far, ceding a pair of rushing TDs to Daniel Jones in Week 1 and another to Drake Maye in Week 2.
Somehow, Josh Allen didn’t find the end zone against the Phins, but that doesn’t matter to me.
Fields is an elite runner and is facing a team ceding an ugly 32.2 PPG.
Ollie Gordon II to score a TD (+325): De’Von Achane is the man in Miami, but Gordon appears to be easing his way into a timeshare as RB2.
The rookie saw a noticeable uptick in production in his third NFL game in Week 3.
- Nine carries
- 38 yards
- 1 touchdown
That’s a great sign, but head coach Mike McDaniel’s comments about Gordon is what really caught my eye:
“I think he’s proven to his teammates that he understands what the responsibility is as an NFL player as a rookie … each week and every practice he gets more ownership of the entirety of the offence, so I’ve been happy with where he’s been at because he’s focused on getting better.”
Achane will still see the lion’s share of looks, but I think there will be enough red zone opportunities to go around.
New York’s defence ranks 29th in PPG (30.1), 27th in red zone scoring attempts allowed per game (4.0), and 26th in rushing yards allowed per game (133.0).
Anytime touchdown scorer picks made at 10:32 a.m. ET on 09/29/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.