Staff Writer

Raptors season-opening picks vs. Cavaliers Oct. 23: Fade Toronto but back Scottie Barnes

The Toronto Raptors begin their season on Wednesday against the Cleveland Cavaliers.

The pregame narrative: It could be a long season for Raptors fans. Toronto’s 30.5 win total is among the lowest in basketball and I expect Cleveland to win and cover at Scotiabank Arena. That said, Scottie Barnes should still have a solid night.

Check out our Raptors picks vs. the Cavaliers for the October 23 game in Toronto.

Raptors picks vs. Cavaliers

Go to full NBA betting markets.

Best bet: Cavaliers -5 (-110)

Embed: #97908

I gave out five pre-season NBA futures bets to make and one was the under on Toronto’s team total.

This team was awful down the stretch last season and it’s hard to imagine much will change. The Raptors had the worst net rating post-trade deadline (-11.3), ranking 24th in field goal percentage (45.7) and 27th in rebound rate (47.0)

Toronto went 7-24 in that span and lost 15 straight games at one point.

Cleveland has bonafide studs in its starting lineup and a pretty impressive bench, too. The Raps have Barnes playing alongside Immanuel Quickley and RJ Barrett but not much else to work with.

Outside of those three players and Jakob Poeltl, nobody on Toronto’s’ current roster averaged more than 10.0 PPG last season.

The last time the Raptors played the Cavaliers was two days after the trade deadline. They lost 119-95 on home court and shot 40.2% from the field and 29.0% from deep.

Key stat: Toronto was 5-18 ATS as a home underdog last season, which was the third-worst cover rate in the NBA.

Quick pick

Barnes over 27.5 points and rebounds (-127): If there’s a silver lining for Raptors fans it’s that Barnes is leading the charge.

Embed: #97905

The 2021 No. 4 overall pick is entering his fourth season and is the team’s undisputed top dog. Barnes averaged career highs in points (19.9), rebounds (8.2), and assists (6.1) last year and is expected to take another leap with Pascal Siakam and OG Anunoby long gone.

The Cavaliers struggled to defend small forwards last season, allowing the eighth-most points and fourth-most rebounds per game to that position, according to Fantasy Pros.

Barnes only cleared this line in one of three games against the Cavs but it was after the Siakam and Anunoby trades. He had a 24-point triple-double in that contest and played a team-high 35 minutes.

In the two games prior, Barnes averaged 17.5 points and 7.0 rebounds (24.5 P+R), which is just a couple of baskets away from clearing this total.

Picks made at 11:06 a.m. on 10/21/24.

MNF Week 7 TD picks: Back Ladd McConkey, Mike Evans to score

I’ve got one TD pick from each game of tonight’s Monday Night Football doubleheader.

The pregame narrative: Ladd McConkey has taken the reins as Los Angeles’ WR1 and I expect him to score against the Arizona Cardinals. Elsewhere, Mike Evans is a good bet to find the endzone when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers host the Baltimore Ravens.

Check out the best MNF Week 7 TD picks for tonight’s doubleheader.

MNF Week 7 TD picks

Go to full NFL betting markets.

Best bet: McConkey anytime TD (+160)

Jim Harbaugh has established the Chargers’ identity: Play great defence and run the ball down your throat.

The Chargers have the third-highest run rate in the NFL (52.40%) and gave J.K. Dobbins 25 carries in last week’s 23-16 win over the Denver Broncos. Dobbins is -150 to score tonight but McConkey is leaping off the board at +160.

L.A. still throws the ball plenty and McConkey is getting the lion’s share of the looks.

The rookie received a team-high eight targets last week and has 10 more total targets (32) than Quentin Johnston (22), who is next in line. Johnston is also listed as doubtful tonight with an ankle injury.

Arizona’s rush defence is awful but so is its pass defence. The Cardinals rank 23rd in defensive EPA per rush and 30th in defensive EPA per dropback, per RBSDM.com. They also allow the most red-zone scoring attempts per game (4.3).

The Chargers haven’t put up any gaudy point totals yet but they’ve also played teams like the Pittsburgh Steelers, Kansas City Chiefs, and Broncos, which are among the league’s top defences.

Arizona is on the other end of the spectrum so this has “breakout game” written all over it for Justin Herbert, McConkey and Co.

Key stat: McConkey leads the Chargers in red-zone targets (four), receptions (three), and touchdowns (two).

Quick picks

Evans anytime TD (+110): All Evans does is catch balls and score touchdowns.

The future Hall of Famer has recorded 1,000+ receiving yards in each of his 10 seasons and is coming off a 13-touchdown year which led the NFL.

Evans’ 46 touchdowns over the last four years coming into 2024 ranked second behind only Davante Adams and he’s already caught five TDs through six games while Adams has just one.

The veteran is leading Tampa Bay with seven red-zone targets and gets a Ravens secondary which has disappointed through the first six weeks.

Baltimore has allowed the most passing yards per game (275.7) and the most touchdowns to WRs (10) while ranking 28th in defensive EPA per dropback.

Picks made at 9:10 a.m. ET on 10/21/2024.

MNF Week 7 TD picks: Back Ladd McConkey, Mike Evans to score

I’ve got one TD pick from each game of tonight’s Monday Night Football doubleheader.

The pregame narrative: Ladd McConkey has taken the reins as Los Angeles’ WR1 and I expect him to score against the Arizona Cardinals. Elsewhere, Mike Evans is a good bet to find the endzone when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers host the Baltimore Ravens.

Check out the best MNF Week 7 TD picks for tonight’s doubleheader.

MNF Week 7 TD picks

Go to full NFL betting markets.

Best bet: McConkey anytime TD (+195)

Embed: #97885

Jim Harbaugh has established the Chargers’ identity: Play great defence and run the ball down your throat.

The Chargers have the third-highest run rate in the NFL (52.40%) and gave J.K. Dobbins 25 carries in last week’s 23-16 win over the Denver Broncos. Dobbins is -150 to score tonight but McConkey is leaping off the board at +195.

L.A. still throws the ball plenty and McConkey is getting the lion’s share of the looks.

The rookie received a team-high eight targets last week and has 10 more total targets (32) than Quentin Johnston (22), who is next in line. Johnston is also listed as doubtful tonight with an ankle injury.

Arizona’s rush defence is awful but so is its pass defence. The Cardinals rank 23rd in defensive EPA per rush and 30th in defensive EPA per dropback, per RBSDM.com. They also allow the most red-zone scoring attempts per game (4.3).

The Chargers haven’t put up any gaudy point totals yet but they’ve also played teams like the Pittsburgh Steelers, Kansas City Chiefs, and Broncos, which are among the league’s top defences.

Arizona is on the other end of the spectrum so this has “breakout game” written all over it for Justin Herbert, McConkey and Co.

Key stat: McConkey leads the Chargers in red-zone targets (four), receptions (three), and touchdowns (two).

Quick picks

Evans anytime TD (+132): All Evans does is catch balls and score touchdowns.

Embed: #97887

The future Hall of Famer has recorded 1,000+ receiving yards in each of his 10 seasons and is coming off a 13-touchdown year which led the NFL.

Evans’ 46 touchdowns over the last four years coming into 2024 ranked second behind only Davante Adams and he’s already caught five TDs through six games while Adams has just one.

The veteran is leading Tampa Bay with seven red-zone targets and gets a Ravens secondary which has disappointed through the first six weeks.

Baltimore has allowed the most passing yards per game (275.7) and the most touchdowns to WRs (10) while ranking 28th in defensive EPA per dropback.

Picks made at 9:10 a.m. ET on 10/21/2024.

Best NFL Week 7 prop bets: Back Saquon Barkley, Xavier Legette, Brock Bowers

One running back, one tight end, and one wide receiver make up this week’s NFL prop bets.

The pregame narrative: Saquon Barkley returns to the Meadowlands for the first time since leaving the New York Giants in free agency and I expect him to show out. Elsewhere, back Brock Bowers and Xavier Legette to clear their receiving totals.

Check out the best NFL Week 7 prop bets for the upcoming games.

NFL Week 7 prop bets

Go to full NFL Week 7 betting markets.

Best bet: Barkley over 83.5 rushing (-114)

Embed: #97637

Who doesn’t love a little revenge game?

Barkley stated that he has “no hate” toward his former team this week but in the summer, the running back thought New York’s contract negotiations were “a little disrespectful” and “kind of like a slap in the face.”

Is he upset or is it water under the bridge? Who’s to say … what I do know is that the Eagles should use Barkley early and often on Sunday.

The two-time Pro Bowler had his worst offensive output of the year coming out of the bye, totalling just 47 rushing yards on 18 carries (2.6 YPC).

But he still got the lion’s share of carries and was remarkably efficient in the four games prior, clearing this mark in each contest while averaging 108.6 yards at 5.95 YPC.

The Giants have a much better rush defence than pass defence and I think Philly can jump out to an early lead with A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith back in the mix. That game script would work in Barkley’s favour, though he should still get looks even in a tight game.

Outside of a 33-16 blowout loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers where the Eagles had to abandon the run, Barkley has received at least 17 rush attempts per game.

Key stat: Barkley ranks third in rushing yards per game (96.4)

Quick picks

Bowers over 59.5 receiving yards (-114): “Look at me, I’m the captain now:” Bowers, probably.

Embed: #97644

Davante Adams is now a New York Jet and Jakobi Meyers is trending towards missing another game. Bowers has logged at least 79% of snaps since Adams went down with a hamstring “injury” and has 22 targets in the last two games.

The rookie blew by this total in both contests, logging 97 yards against the Denver Broncos and 71 yards against the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Denver and Pittsburgh boast elite secondaries and the same can’t be said about the Los Angeles Rams.

L.A. has allowed the third-most receiving yards per game to tight ends (59.0) and ranks 31st in defensive EPA per dropback, per RBSDM.com.

Legette over 40.5 receiving yards (-117): Things are ugly in Carolina but let’s forget about that for a moment.

Embed: #97647

The Panthers take on a Washington Commanders team which is off to a 4-2 start despite its atrocious secondary. Washington ranks 28th in defensive EPA per dropback and has allowed the sixth-most receiving yards per game to WRs (169.6).

Legette is 2-4 against this line but hauled in 6-of-10 targets for 66 yards against the Cincinnati Bengals, whose pass defence is just a smidge better than Washington’s.

Diontae Johnson leads the team in targets (55) but didn’t practice Wednesday or Thursday due to an ankle injury. Legette should be the No. 1 option on Sunday.

Picks made at 12:57 p.m. ET on 10/17/2024.

Broncos vs. Saints Week 7 same-game parlay predictions: Back Kamara, Nix on TNF at +425

Sean Payton returns to his old stomping grounds when the New Orleans Saints host the Denver Broncos on Thursday Night Football.

The pregame narrative: That’s the biggest storyline in an underwhelming primetime game. A pair of rookies in Bo Nix and Spencer Rattler are under centre and I’ve got plays on each of them in addition to a teased-up spread pick and an Alvin Kamara prop.

Check out my Broncos vs. Saints same-game parlay predictions for Week 7 below.

Broncos vs. Saints same-game parlay predictions

Full NFL betting markets: Click here

Parlay: Broncos +5.5 + Rattler under 199.5 passing yards + Kamara over 59.5 rushing yards + Nix over 19.5 rushing yards (+425)

Broncos +5.5 (-305): I like the Broncos to win and cover tonight but will tease them to a 5.5-point underdog just to be safe.

Embed: #97625

New Orleans has looked horrible since an electric 2-0 start where it scored a combined 91 points against the Carolina Panthers and Dallas Cowboys. Well, it turns out those teams aren’t good. The Saints have lost four straight since and are averaging just 19.0 points per game.

Derek Carr is injured and Rattler is an unproven product I can’t trust. The rookie had an eventful debut but only completed 22-of-40 passes (55.0%) with one touchdown and two interceptions.

Denver has the fourth-best scoring and total defence and Vance Joseph should dial up enough pressure to make him uncomfortable.

Nix isn’t elite by any means but he’s taken care of the football since starting the season with four interceptions in his first two games. The Oregon product has seven total touchdowns to one turnover in his last four outings and Denver is 3-1.

Other parlay picks

Rattler under 199.5 passing yards (-195): Rattler cleared this mark comfortably against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers but I can’t see it happening again.

Embed: #97626

The Saints asked him to throw the ball 40 times which is a ridiculous amount of volume. Sure, Patrick Surtain II is out which will make Rattler’s life a little bit easier — but so is Chris Olave, and that evens things out in my book.

Denver isn’t likely to put up a huge number so Klint Kubiak’s gameplan should revolve heavily around Kamara and the rushing attack.

Rattler was also sacked five times by the Buccaneers and the Broncos have the second-most sacks (22) in the NFL. When the rookie does throw it will probably be rushed and below the sticks.

Kamara over 59.5 rushing yards (-182): Backing Kamara is a complimentary play to fading Rattler.

Embed: #97627

New Orleans’ star running back fallen below this line in back-to-back contests but he didn’t get much volume in the last two games, toting the ball just 24 combined times.

The Saints were chasing in those games and lost both contests by two scores. Kamara blew by this line in the four games prior, averaging 90.5 rushing yards on 20 carries per game.

Those were all either blowouts in New Orleans’ favour or games which were decided by a field goal. I think Denver wins but don’t expect it to light up the scoreboard.

Nix over 19.5 rushing yards (-195): Our Jordan Horrobin is backing Nix to clear his 24.5 rushing total and I’m hoping aboard — on a teased-down line

Embed: #97628

The rookie quarterback has cleared this total in four of six games while averaging 30.0 rushing yards a contest. He was Denver’s leading rusher last week, turning six carries into 61 yards.

I’m sure Payton wants more out of Javonte Williams and Jaleel McLaughlin, who are both averaging south of 4.0 yards per carry, but Nix’s legs are a proven

Picks made at 11:30 a.m. on 10/17/24.

Dodgers vs. Mets Game 4 same-game parlay predictions: Back New York behind Quintana at +240

The Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Mets meet for a pivotal Game 4 in the NLCS.

The pregame narrative: Los Angeles’ bats erupted for another blowout win but expect New York to respond down 2-1. Back the Mets on a teased-up run line behind Jose Quintana’s pitching and take Kiké Hernandez to record a hit.

Check out my Dodgers vs. Mets predictions for Game 4 of the NLCS on Oct. 17.

Dodgers vs. Mets SGP predictions

Full MLB postseason betting markets: Click here

Parlay: Mets +2.5 + Quintana over 2.5 strikeouts + Hernandez over 0.5 hits (+240)

Mets +2.5 (-265): Talk about Déjà vu.

Embed: #97605

The Mets got smoked in the NLCS opener and found themselves on the wrong side of another beatdown as the series shifted to New York. This time, the Dodgers picked up an 8-0 win behind three home runs and elite pitching.

Can New York respond with another win as it did in Game 2? I’m not entirely sure, but I do like its chances of covering this number.

Quintana has been nothing short of spectacular lately, boasting a 0.66 ERA across his last seven starts.

He hasn’t given up an earned run in the playoffs and was nails in a winner-take-all Game 3 of the wild-card (6.0 IP, 4 H, 0 R). This isn’t technically a “must-win,” but it’s pretty damn close.

Los Angeles counters with Yoshinobu Yamamoto who is coming off his best start as a Dodger. The Japanese rookie threw 5.0 scoreless innings in Game 5 of the NLDS.

But the Mets got after Yamamoto in their only meeting with him this year, logging seven hits and four runs in 6.0 IP. They’ve also covered this number in seven of Quintana’s last eight starts.

SGP legs

Quintana over 2.5 strikeouts (-375): If Quintana can’t pitch deep into this game the +2.5 run line will likely be in serious jeopardy. But if he can, as I suspect, this should be manageable.

Embed: #97613

The lefty logged six Ks against the Philadelphia Phillies in the NLDS and five Ks against the Milwaukee Brewers in the wild-card. He’s gone over this mark in seven straight games dating back to August 31.

Los Angeles had the third-lowest strikeout rate against left-handed pitching this year and Quintana isn’t an elite swing-and-miss arm (19th percentile K rate, per Baseball Savant).

That said, he’s gone over this teased-down mark in five straight starts versus L.A.

Hernandez over 0.5 hits (-130): Hernandez did it again.

Embed: #97607

The Dodgers’ utility man went 2-for-5 last night with a two-run home run. That raised his postseason batting average to .333 and he’s now hitting .385 over his last 20 playoff games.

The shocking thing is Hernandez is a below-average regular-season player. He has a career 92 OPS+ (100 is league-average) and owned a 0.7 fWAR this year, which ranked 454th among all MLB players.

But he’s dynamite in the playoffs and I’ll happily back him at this price.

Picks made at 9:45 a.m. on 10/17/24.

NFL Week 7 parlay picks: Back the 49ers to beat Chiefs in +315 wager

One moneyline pick and two alternate spreads make up this week’s NFL parlay.

The pregame narrative: The San Francisco 49ers host the Kansas City Chiefs in a Super Bowl rematch and I say the Niners get revenge. Elsewhere, I’m teasing the Cleveland Browns and Las Vegas Raiders up to 10.5-point underdogs.

Check out my Week 7 parlay picks for the NFL season.

NFL Week 7 parlay picks

Go to full NFL Week 7 betting markets.

Parlay: 49ers moneyline + Raiders +10.5 + Browns +10.5 (+315)

49ers moneyline (-117): The Niners were oh-so-close to dethroning the Chiefs last year … but they didn’t, and now Kansas City has its sights set on a three-peat.

Embed: #97542

Will Patrick Mahomes and Co. get another ring? I won’t look that far down the line but I’m content fading them on Sunday.

San Francisco flexed its offensive muscles last week, scoring 36 points against the Seattle Seahawks on the road.

Kyle Shanahan is still missing Christian McCaffrey but the rest of the unit is healthy. That should be enough to beat a Chiefs team without Rahsee Rice, Isiah Pacheco and Hollywood Brown.

Kansas City is undefeated but looks far from perfect. JuJu Smith-Schuster and Kareem Hunt were elite players back in 2019 but I don’t trust them to lead the Chiefs against a solid 49ers defence.

I understand I’m betting against Andy Reid off a bye and Patrick Mahomes as an underdog. Those are two trends most sports bettors will swear by. But San Fran had an extended rest of its own, having not played since Thursday Night Football.

Other parlay picks

Raiders +10.5 (-190): The Raiders and Browns both traded away their top receiver — Davante Adams and Amari Cooper, respectively — but I like each team to cover as sizeable underdogs.

Embed: #97544

Let’s start with the Raiders. They’re going up against a Los Angeles Rams team which is 1-4 and has failed to cover this number in 11 straight games dating back to last season.

Aaron Donald is gone and the defence has certainly felt it. L.A. has allowed the fifth-most yards and fourth-most points per game.

This is technically a road game but I expect Raider Nation to take over SoFi Stadium. Covering 10.5 points shouldn’t be difficult.

Browns +10.5 (-220): Now we head to Cleveland, where the Browns insist on starting Deshaun Watson despite every data point suggesting otherwise.

Embed: #97543

Watson has been the worst quarterback in the league by several metrics, including RBSDM.com’s EPA per play. But the Browns get Nick Chubb back and I think he’ll play a pivotal role in cutting up a Bengals defence which can’t stop the run.

Cincinnati is 2-4 and has failed to cover this number in both of its wins.

Joe Burrow is also 1-5 against the Browns in his career with an 86.4 passer rating. At home, Cleveland should keep this divisional matchup close.

NFL picks made at 2:25 p.m. on 10/16/24.

Best NHL prop picks Oct. 16: Back Elias Lindholm, Charlie McAvoy against Avalanche

Two Boston Bruins headline these NHL prop picks.

The pregame narrative: Boston heads west to take on a Colorado Avalanche team that can’t buy a save. I’m backing Elias Lindholm and Charlie McAvoy to find the stat sheet alongside the Utah Hockey Club’s Barrett Hayton.

Find these NHL prop picks for Oct. 16 below.

NHL prop picks

Go to full NHL betting markets.

Best Bet: Lindholm over 0.5 points (-137)

Embed: #97516

We’re only three games into the season but alarm bells are ringing in Denver.

The Avalanche are 0-3-0 with 20 goals allowed in those contests. They’ve given up at least six goals in every game and have the worst team save percentage (.785) by a wide margin.

It’s unclear if Alexandar Georgiev or Justus Annunen will start but neither are playing at an NHL level. Georgiev had an awful .897 SV% last year and has given up 13 goals on 62 shots (.790) so far. Annunen played most of the last two seasons in the AHL and was pulled in his only start this year.

Now, the Avs have to deal with a Bruins team which can score plenty.

Boston is averaging 3.75 goals per game this season and has David Pastrnak — one of the league’s top scorers — leading the first line and power play.

Lindholm centres Pastrnak’s line and PP1 and holds -137 odds to register a point, while Pastrnak is at a heavily-juiced -275.

Key stat: Lindholm has two goals and five points in four games.

Quick picks

McAvoy over 0.5 points (-103): McAvoy is one of the league’s top defenceman but isn’t a scorer like his opponent, Cale Makar.

Embed: #97517

Still, McAvoy gets on the stat sheet enough where I think this is a solid value. Since the start of the 2022-23 season, McAvoy has 102 points in 145 regular season games (0.70 per game).

He’s registered a point in two of four games so far and leads all Bruins in ice time while ranking fourth in shots (10).

Hayton over 0.5 points (-115): The Hockey Club started their inagural season with three straight wins, scoring five-plus goals in each game. Hayton, Utah’s top-line centre, found the stat sheet in each win.

Embed: #97520

Utah was blanked 3-0 by the New Jersey Devils its last time out but has a nice chance of rebounding on the road against the Anaheim Ducks.

Anaheim allowed the third-most goals and sixth-most shots last season and I don’t expect it to be much better this time around.

Lukas Dostal did log a shutout in his only start this year but that was against the bottom-feeding San Jose Sharks. Utah figures to be a much more competitive team and Hayton gets plenty of ice time and features on the first power play unit.

Picks made at 12:50 p.m. ET on 10/16/2024.

Looking to get started? Sign up here.

Maple Leafs best bet vs. Kings Oct. 16: Bet on Toronto to win in regulation

The Toronto Maple Leafs welcome the Los Angeles Kings to Scotiabank Arena tonight.

The pregame narrative: Toronto hasn’t played since Saturday while Los Angeles is in the middle of a seven-game road trip to open the season. This has the recipe for a blowout and I like the Leafs to win in regulation.

Check out our Kings vs. Maple Leafs best bet for the game on Oct. 16.

Maple Leafs best bet vs. Kings

Go to full NHL betting markets.

Best bet: Maple Leafs to win in regulation (-118)

Can I ask what Los Angeles did to upset the schedule makers this year?

The Kings started their season in Buffalo last Thursday and won’t be back at Crypto.com Arena until Oct. 24. They take on the Leafs tonight and fly to Montreal for a match with the Canadiens tomorrow.

Starting with that many games on the road is a mental grind and L.A.’s last game was sloppy. The Kings lost an 8-7 overtime barn-burner to the Ottawa Senators on Monday where they allowed 41 shots on goal.

Darcy Kuemper started that game — and both games prior — and he’s expected again this evening. His 3.59 GAA and .889 SV% rank 35th and 31st, respectively, among all NHL goaltenders.

And it’s not like last year’s numbers were much better in 33 starts with the Washington Capitals (3.31 GAA, .890 SV%).

Toronto turns to Anthony Stolarz, who owns a 1.54 GAA and .940 SV% through two starts.

The Leafs have won back-to-back games by two-plus goals without Matthews scoring and are 0-for-9 on the power play. This feels like a game where Toronto runs roughshod.

Key stat: The Los Angeles Kings have allowed the fourth-most chances per 60 minutes (68.8), per Natural Stat Trick.

Picks made at 10:34 a.m. on 10/16/24

Maple Leafs picks vs. Kings Oct. 16: Bet on Toronto to win, Matthews to score

The Toronto Maple Leafs welcome the Los Angeles Kings to Scotiabank Arena tonight.

The pregame narrative: Toronto hasn’t played since Saturday while Los Angeles is in the middle of a seven-game road trip to open the season. This has the recipe for a blowout and I expect Auston Matthews to net his first of the year.

Check out our Kings vs. Maple Leafs picks for the game on Oct. 16.

Maple Leafs picks vs. Kings

Go to full NHL betting markets.

Best bet: Maple Leafs to win in regulation (-106)

Embed: #97500