The Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Mets meet for a pivotal Game 4 in the NLCS.
The pregame narrative: Los Angeles’ bats erupted for another blowout win but expect New York to respond down 2-1. Back the Mets on a teased-up run line behind Jose Quintana’s pitching and take Kiké Hernandez to record a hit.
Check out my Dodgers vs. Mets predictions for Game 4 of the NLCS on Oct. 17.
Dodgers vs. Mets SGP predictions
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Parlay: Mets +2.5 + Quintana over 2.5 strikeouts + Hernandez over 0.5 hits (+240)
Mets +2.5 (-265): Talk about Déjà vu.
The Mets got smoked in the NLCS opener and found themselves on the wrong side of another beatdown as the series shifted to New York. This time, the Dodgers picked up an 8-0 win behind three home runs and elite pitching.
Can New York respond with another win as it did in Game 2? I’m not entirely sure, but I do like its chances of covering this number.
Quintana has been nothing short of spectacular lately, boasting a 0.66 ERA across his last seven starts.
He hasn’t given up an earned run in the playoffs and was nails in a winner-take-all Game 3 of the wild-card (6.0 IP, 4 H, 0 R). This isn’t technically a “must-win,” but it’s pretty damn close.
Los Angeles counters with Yoshinobu Yamamoto who is coming off his best start as a Dodger. The Japanese rookie threw 5.0 scoreless innings in Game 5 of the NLDS.
But the Mets got after Yamamoto in their only meeting with him this year, logging seven hits and four runs in 6.0 IP. They’ve also covered this number in seven of Quintana’s last eight starts.
SGP legs
Quintana over 2.5 strikeouts (-375): If Quintana can’t pitch deep into this game the +2.5 run line will likely be in serious jeopardy. But if he can, as I suspect, this should be manageable.
The lefty logged six Ks against the Philadelphia Phillies in the NLDS and five Ks against the Milwaukee Brewers in the wild-card. He’s gone over this mark in seven straight games dating back to August 31.
Los Angeles had the third-lowest strikeout rate against left-handed pitching this year and Quintana isn’t an elite swing-and-miss arm (19th percentile K rate, per Baseball Savant).
That said, he’s gone over this teased-down mark in five straight starts versus L.A.
Hernandez over 0.5 hits (-130): Hernandez did it again.
The Dodgers’ utility man went 2-for-5 last night with a two-run home run. That raised his postseason batting average to .333 and he’s now hitting .385 over his last 20 playoff games.
The shocking thing is Hernandez is a below-average regular-season player. He has a career 92 OPS+ (100 is league-average) and owned a 0.7 fWAR this year, which ranked 454th among all MLB players.
But he’s dynamite in the playoffs and I’ll happily back him at this price.
Picks made at 9:45 a.m. on 10/17/24.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.