Sean Payton returns to his old stomping grounds when the New Orleans Saints host the Denver Broncos on Thursday Night Football.
The pregame narrative: That’s the biggest storyline in an underwhelming primetime game. A pair of rookies in Bo Nix and Spencer Rattler are under centre and I’ve got plays on each of them in addition to a teased-up spread pick and an Alvin Kamara prop.
Check out my Broncos vs. Saints same-game parlay predictions for Week 7 below.
Broncos vs. Saints same-game parlay predictions
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Parlay: Broncos +5.5 + Rattler under 199.5 passing yards + Kamara over 59.5 rushing yards + Nix over 19.5 rushing yards (+425)
Broncos +5.5 (-305): I like the Broncos to win and cover tonight but will tease them to a 5.5-point underdog just to be safe.
New Orleans has looked horrible since an electric 2-0 start where it scored a combined 91 points against the Carolina Panthers and Dallas Cowboys. Well, it turns out those teams aren’t good. The Saints have lost four straight since and are averaging just 19.0 points per game.
Derek Carr is injured and Rattler is an unproven product I can’t trust. The rookie had an eventful debut but only completed 22-of-40 passes (55.0%) with one touchdown and two interceptions.
Denver has the fourth-best scoring and total defence and Vance Joseph should dial up enough pressure to make him uncomfortable.
Nix isn’t elite by any means but he’s taken care of the football since starting the season with four interceptions in his first two games. The Oregon product has seven total touchdowns to one turnover in his last four outings and Denver is 3-1.
Other parlay picks
Rattler under 199.5 passing yards (-195): Rattler cleared this mark comfortably against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers but I can’t see it happening again.
The Saints asked him to throw the ball 40 times which is a ridiculous amount of volume. Sure, Patrick Surtain II is out which will make Rattler’s life a little bit easier — but so is Chris Olave, and that evens things out in my book.
Denver isn’t likely to put up a huge number so Klint Kubiak’s gameplan should revolve heavily around Kamara and the rushing attack.
Rattler was also sacked five times by the Buccaneers and the Broncos have the second-most sacks (22) in the NFL. When the rookie does throw it will probably be rushed and below the sticks.
Kamara over 59.5 rushing yards (-182): Backing Kamara is a complimentary play to fading Rattler.
New Orleans’ star running back fallen below this line in back-to-back contests but he didn’t get much volume in the last two games, toting the ball just 24 combined times.
The Saints were chasing in those games and lost both contests by two scores. Kamara blew by this line in the four games prior, averaging 90.5 rushing yards on 20 carries per game.
Those were all either blowouts in New Orleans’ favour or games which were decided by a field goal. I think Denver wins but don’t expect it to light up the scoreboard.
Nix over 19.5 rushing yards (-195): Our Jordan Horrobin is backing Nix to clear his 24.5 rushing total and I’m hoping aboard — on a teased-down line
The rookie quarterback has cleared this total in four of six games while averaging 30.0 rushing yards a contest. He was Denver’s leading rusher last week, turning six carries into 61 yards.
I’m sure Payton wants more out of Javonte Williams and Jaleel McLaughlin, who are both averaging south of 4.0 yards per carry, but Nix’s legs are a proven
Picks made at 11:30 a.m. on 10/17/24.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.