Staff Writer

Best NHL prop picks Oct. 24: Back Jack Hughes, Quinton Byfield on Thursday

Jack Hughes and Quinton Byfield are my targets for today’s NHL prop picks.

The pregame narrative: Byfield has a tasty matchup against the league’s worst team, while Hughes should have plenty of opportunities to get pucks on goal against the Detroit Red Wings.

Find my NHL prop picks for Oct. 24 below.

NHL prop picks

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Best Bet: Byfield to record a point (-134)

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After a historically bad season, Macklin Celebrini was the only thing San Jose Sharks fans had to look forward to this year.

But unfortunately for them, the No. 1 overall pick is out for at least two more weeks and the team is still awful. San Jose is 0-5-2 while allowing 4.14 goals per game. Simply put, this is a squad full of AHL talent playing in an NHL arena.

The Sharks just lost 3-1 to the Anaheim Ducks and gave up four-plus goals in three straight games before that (four to the Colorado Avalanche and Chicago Blackhawks, eight to the Winnipeg Jets).

Los Angeles hasn’t looked good either but should pummel its intrastate rival.

Byfield slots in on the team’s top line with Anze Kopitar and Adrian Kempe, making him a prime target to score a point. He also plays on the team’s second power-play unit.

The 6-foot-5 winger only has a point in three of seven games so far but is coming off a solid season where he scored 20 goals and notched 55 points in 80 games.

Key stat: San Jose is allowing the third-most 5v5 chances per 60 minutes (67.72), according to Natural Stat Trick.

Quick pick

Hughes over 3.5 shots (-136): This is another play with a decent amount of juice, but I believe it’s worth the squeeze.

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Hughes started the season slow but is coming off a one-goal, two-assist performance against the Tampa Bay Lightning. I expect him to keep things rolling against the Red Wings.

The star centre has only gone over this mark in one of nine games so far but had exactly three shots in three other contests. Hughes averaged the fourth-most shots per game last season (4.42), per StatMuse, and is due for some positive regression.

Detroit is allowing the third-most shots per game (33.5).

NHL picks made at 12:46 p.m. ET 10/24/2024.

Best NBA prop bets Oct. 24: Back Nikola Jokic on glass, fade Kyle Kuzma against Celtics

Nikola Jokic headlines Thursday’s NBA prop bets.

The pregame narrative: The reigning MVP makes his season debut against an undersized Oklahoma City Thunder squad, which should be a recipe for a big rebounding night. Elsewhere, I’m fading Kyle Kuzma and backing Mike Conley.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Oct. 24.

NBA prop bets

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Best Bet: Jokic over 12.5 rebounds (+102)

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The biggest knock on OKC last year was its inability to rebound.

The Thunder ranked inside the top four for offensive rating, defensive rating, and effective field goal percentage but were 28th in rebounding rate. That came back to bite them in the playoffs and was why Sam Presti acquired Isiah Hartenstein in free agency.

But Hartenstein is out tonight, meaning 7-foot-1 Chet Holmgren is OKC’s lone big man. Holmgren is skilled but is hardly an imposing presence in the paint at 208 pounds.

Jokic is a grown man who plays grown-man basketball and I expect him to feast tonight.

The Serbian superstar averaged 12.4 rebounds per game (the second-highest mark of his career) en route to winning his third MVP in four seasons.

This is a big number but it’s one Jokic is more than capable of clearing. He went over this mark in 39 of 79 starts and should get plenty of run in what’s projected to be a close game.

Key stat: OKC gave up the fifth-most rebounds per game to centres (15.47) last season, according to Fantasy Pros.

Quick picks

Kuzma under 5.5 rebounds (+118): One team that didn’t have a rebounding problem, or any problem really, was the Boston Celtics.

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Boston had the fifth-best rebound rate en route to winning its 18th NBA title, meaning Kuzma shouldn’t get any easy boards tonight.

Kristaps Porzingis is out tonight but Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, and Al Horford can hold their own on the glass. That group just out-rebounded a New York Knicks team that led the league in rebounding rate last year.

Also, Kuzma isn’t expected to be Washington’s top rebounder. The Wizards acquired Jonas Valanciunas in the offseason and drafted 7-foot-0 power forward Alex Sarr with the No. 2 overall pick.

Conley over 1.5 threes (-107): Let’s throw Conley’s season-opening performance out of the window.

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The veteran point guard went 0-for-5 from deep against the Los Angeles Lakers with three times as many turnovers (three) as made field goals (one).

That’s ugly, but I’ll buy low on a guy who shot an incredible 44.2% from deep last year while averaging 2.4 makes per game.

Conley has a solid matchup tonight against a Sacramento Kings team that had the second-highest opponent 3-point percentage last year (38.6%).

Picks made at 10:53 a.m. on 10/24/2024.

Maple Leafs picks vs. Blues Oct. 24: Back Toronto to win, Matthew Knies to record a point

The Toronto Maple Leafs host Craig Berube’s old team, the St. Louis Blues, on Thursday night.

The pregame narrative: Toronto is coming off its worst game of the season, a 6-2 loss to the Columbus Blue Jackets, but I expect the team to rebound at home. Bet on the Maple Leafs to win in regulation and Matthew Knies to notch a point.

Check out our Maple Leafs picks vs. Blues for the game on Oct. 24.

Maple Leafs picks vs. Blues

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Best bet: Maple Leafs to win in regulation (-129)

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The more things change, the more they stay the same.

Toronto thrashed the Tampa Bay Lightning on Monday and followed that up by laying an egg against a much worse Columbus team. We’ve seen that story before regardless of who is behind the bench.

But I’ll cut the Leafs some slack. We’re seven games into the season and they’ve mostly played well, allowing two or fewer goals in five games. One of the outliers was on Tuesday and one was against the New York Rangers, when the Blue Shirts scored two empty-netters in a 4-1 win.

No one showed up against Columbus including Dennis Hildeby, who gave up six goals on 38 shots in his second NHL start.

I expect Toronto’s skaters to shake off that performance and am also more optimistic about the team’s situation in the net. It’s unclear whether Anthony Stolarz gets the call or Joseph Woll makes his season debut, but either way, that’s good news.

Stolarz has been fantastic this season, and Woll has been promising (when healthy).

St. Louis is 4-3-0 but is struggling to score right now, averaging just 2.2 goals across its last five games. Jordan Binnington’s 3.04 GAA and .891 SV% don’t inspire much confidence, either.

Key stat: Toronto averages the sixth-most 5v5 goals per 60 (3.43), while St. Louis sits 18th (2.39), per Natural Stat Trick.

Quick pick

Knies to record a point (+115): Knies doesn’t play on Toronto’s top power play, but he is riding shotgun with the team’s best offensive talents, Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner. That’s good enough for me.

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The 22-year-old power forward has a point in three straight games with goals in each of the last two. He’s found the stat sheet in four of his last five and is averaging a healthy 17:09 of ice time per night.

Binnington has been shaky and the Blues are allowing the seventh-most shots against per game (30.6).

I think Toronto rolls to a victory behind a strong performance from its top line.

NHL picks made at 9:36 a.m. ET on 10/24/24.

NFL Week 8 upset picks: Cowboys, Saints have value as underdogs

This week’s NFL upset picks feature two teams, the Dallas Cowboys and New Orleans Saints.

The pregame narrative: Dallas is spiralling but so are the San Francisco 49ers. Injuries to the latter’s offence have me backing the Cowboys as a road dog on Sunday Night Football.

Check out how these NFL Week 8 upset picks.

NFL Week 8 upset picks

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Best bet: Cowboys moneyline (+185)

Brandon Aiyuk is out for the year, Deebo Samuel has pneumonia, George Kittle sprained his foot, and Christian McCaffrey … well, who knows what’s going on with the reigning Offensive Player of the Year.

To put things into perspective, San Francisco’s healthiest receiver is Ricky Pearsall, a rookie who was shot in the chest two months ago.

Dallas has a laundry list of injuries on its defence — headlined by Micah Parsons — but I can’t see the Niners putting up many points.

The Kansas City Chiefs just walked into Levi’s Stadium and embarrassed their Super Bowl dance partner from last season, 28-18, with Patrick Mahomes throwing for just 154 yards and no touchdowns (two INTs).

Brock Purdy couldn’t keep up with that, and I think Dak Prescott has a bounce-back game coming out of a bye week.

San Fran’s defence is good but far from great, ranking 16th in scoring, 14th in yardage, and 13th in EPA per play.

The Cowboys got clowned at home by the Detroit Lions the last time we saw them, but they’ve still won 12 games in each of the last three seasons under Mike McCarthy.

Key stat: McCarthy-led teams are 12-5 following the bye (3-1 with Dallas).

Week 8 upset predictions

Saints moneyline (+290): This pick is disgusting. There’s no other way to frame it. After starting 2-0, the Saints have lost five straight games and are averaging 17.2 PPG during the slump.

But I see an upset brewing at SoFi Stadium.

The Los Angeles Chargers want to win games ugly under John Harbaugh and sometimes that just doesn’t work. Take their most recent Monday Night Football loss to the Arizona Cardinals, for example.

L.A. has an elite defence but can’t get anything going on offence. The Bolts have the second-fewest red zone scoring attempts per game (2.2) and the third-worst red zone conversion rate (38.46%).

That means pretty much any team can hang around.

Derek Carr has done some throwing sessions this week and his return would be a boon for the Saints. If he can’t play, this would be a tough sell with Spencer Rattler under centre.

But the Saints are 7.5-point underdogs for a reason. I’ll plug my nose and take the plunge.

Picks made at 2:49 p.m. ET on 10/22/2024.