Nikola Jokic headlines Thursday’s NBA prop bets.
The pregame narrative: The reigning MVP makes his season debut against an undersized Oklahoma City Thunder squad, which should be a recipe for a big rebounding night. Elsewhere, I’m fading Kyle Kuzma and backing Mike Conley.
Check out the best NBA prop bets for Oct. 24.
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Best Bet: Jokic over 12.5 rebounds (+102)
The biggest knock on OKC last year was its inability to rebound.
The Thunder ranked inside the top four for offensive rating, defensive rating, and effective field goal percentage but were 28th in rebounding rate. That came back to bite them in the playoffs and was why Sam Presti acquired Isiah Hartenstein in free agency.
But Hartenstein is out tonight, meaning 7-foot-1 Chet Holmgren is OKC’s lone big man. Holmgren is skilled but is hardly an imposing presence in the paint at 208 pounds.
Jokic is a grown man who plays grown-man basketball and I expect him to feast tonight.
The Serbian superstar averaged 12.4 rebounds per game (the second-highest mark of his career) en route to winning his third MVP in four seasons.
This is a big number but it’s one Jokic is more than capable of clearing. He went over this mark in 39 of 79 starts and should get plenty of run in what’s projected to be a close game.
Key stat: OKC gave up the fifth-most rebounds per game to centres (15.47) last season, according to Fantasy Pros.
Quick picks
Kuzma under 5.5 rebounds (+118): One team that didn’t have a rebounding problem, or any problem really, was the Boston Celtics.
Boston had the fifth-best rebound rate en route to winning its 18th NBA title, meaning Kuzma shouldn’t get any easy boards tonight.
Kristaps Porzingis is out tonight but Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, and Al Horford can hold their own on the glass. That group just out-rebounded a New York Knicks team that led the league in rebounding rate last year.
Also, Kuzma isn’t expected to be Washington’s top rebounder. The Wizards acquired Jonas Valanciunas in the offseason and drafted 7-foot-0 power forward Alex Sarr with the No. 2 overall pick.
Conley over 1.5 threes (-107): Let’s throw Conley’s season-opening performance out of the window.
The veteran point guard went 0-for-5 from deep against the Los Angeles Lakers with three times as many turnovers (three) as made field goals (one).
That’s ugly, but I’ll buy low on a guy who shot an incredible 44.2% from deep last year while averaging 2.4 makes per game.
Conley has a solid matchup tonight against a Sacramento Kings team that had the second-highest opponent 3-point percentage last year (38.6%).
Picks made at 10:53 a.m. on 10/24/2024.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.