The Toronto Maple Leafs host Craig Berube’s old team, the St. Louis Blues, on Thursday night.
The pregame narrative: Toronto is coming off its worst game of the season, a 6-2 loss to the Columbus Blue Jackets, but I expect the team to rebound at home. Bet on the Maple Leafs to win in regulation and Matthew Knies to notch a point.
Check out our Maple Leafs picks vs. Blues for the game on Oct. 24.
Maple Leafs picks vs. Blues
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Best bet: Maple Leafs to win in regulation (-129)
The more things change, the more they stay the same.
Toronto thrashed the Tampa Bay Lightning on Monday and followed that up by laying an egg against a much worse Columbus team. We’ve seen that story before regardless of who is behind the bench.
But I’ll cut the Leafs some slack. We’re seven games into the season and they’ve mostly played well, allowing two or fewer goals in five games. One of the outliers was on Tuesday and one was against the New York Rangers, when the Blue Shirts scored two empty-netters in a 4-1 win.
No one showed up against Columbus including Dennis Hildeby, who gave up six goals on 38 shots in his second NHL start.
I expect Toronto’s skaters to shake off that performance and am also more optimistic about the team’s situation in the net. It’s unclear whether Anthony Stolarz gets the call or Joseph Woll makes his season debut, but either way, that’s good news.
Stolarz has been fantastic this season, and Woll has been promising (when healthy).
St. Louis is 4-3-0 but is struggling to score right now, averaging just 2.2 goals across its last five games. Jordan Binnington’s 3.04 GAA and .891 SV% don’t inspire much confidence, either.
Key stat: Toronto averages the sixth-most 5v5 goals per 60 (3.43), while St. Louis sits 18th (2.39), per Natural Stat Trick.
Quick pick
Knies to record a point (+115): Knies doesn’t play on Toronto’s top power play, but he is riding shotgun with the team’s best offensive talents, Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner. That’s good enough for me.
The 22-year-old power forward has a point in three straight games with goals in each of the last two. He’s found the stat sheet in four of his last five and is averaging a healthy 17:09 of ice time per night.
Binnington has been shaky and the Blues are allowing the seventh-most shots against per game (30.6).
I think Toronto rolls to a victory behind a strong performance from its top line.
NHL picks made at 9:36 a.m. ET on 10/24/24.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.