I’ve got one TD pick from each game of tonight’s Monday Night Football doubleheader.
The pregame narrative: Ladd McConkey has taken the reins as Los Angeles’ WR1 and I expect him to score against the Arizona Cardinals. Elsewhere, Mike Evans is a good bet to find the endzone when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers host the Baltimore Ravens.
Check out the best MNF Week 7 TD picks for tonight’s doubleheader.
MNF Week 7 TD picks
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Best bet: McConkey anytime TD (+160)
Jim Harbaugh has established the Chargers’ identity: Play great defence and run the ball down your throat.
The Chargers have the third-highest run rate in the NFL (52.40%) and gave J.K. Dobbins 25 carries in last week’s 23-16 win over the Denver Broncos. Dobbins is -150 to score tonight but McConkey is leaping off the board at +160.
L.A. still throws the ball plenty and McConkey is getting the lion’s share of the looks.
The rookie received a team-high eight targets last week and has 10 more total targets (32) than Quentin Johnston (22), who is next in line. Johnston is also listed as doubtful tonight with an ankle injury.
Arizona’s rush defence is awful but so is its pass defence. The Cardinals rank 23rd in defensive EPA per rush and 30th in defensive EPA per dropback, per RBSDM.com. They also allow the most red-zone scoring attempts per game (4.3).
The Chargers haven’t put up any gaudy point totals yet but they’ve also played teams like the Pittsburgh Steelers, Kansas City Chiefs, and Broncos, which are among the league’s top defences.
Arizona is on the other end of the spectrum so this has “breakout game” written all over it for Justin Herbert, McConkey and Co.
Key stat: McConkey leads the Chargers in red-zone targets (four), receptions (three), and touchdowns (two).
Quick picks
Evans anytime TD (+110): All Evans does is catch balls and score touchdowns.
The future Hall of Famer has recorded 1,000+ receiving yards in each of his 10 seasons and is coming off a 13-touchdown year which led the NFL.
Evans’ 46 touchdowns over the last four years coming into 2024 ranked second behind only Davante Adams and he’s already caught five TDs through six games while Adams has just one.
The veteran is leading Tampa Bay with seven red-zone targets and gets a Ravens secondary which has disappointed through the first six weeks.
Baltimore has allowed the most passing yards per game (275.7) and the most touchdowns to WRs (10) while ranking 28th in defensive EPA per dropback.
Picks made at 9:10 a.m. ET on 10/21/2024.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.