Category: NBA

Best NBA prop bets March 3: Back Gilgeous-Alexander, Morant and Duren on Monday night

NBA prop bets

The new NBA week kicks off with seven games and I’m dialling up three prop picks for the evening’s slate.

The pregame narrative: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has stepped up his 3-point shooting and headlines the plays. Fellow star guard Ja Morant is also featured alongside Detroit Pistons big man Jalen Duren.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for March 3.

NBA prop bets

Best bet: Gilgeous-Alexander over 1.5 threes (-122)

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Gilgeous-Alexander is projected for another big scoring night on a back-to-back against the Houston Rockets.

The Oklahoma City Thunder superstar’s points line is 31.5. He’s scored 30-plus points in well over half of his games and leads the NBA in PPG.

Assuming he can flirt with 30 again, I like him to can a couple of triples and believe there’s value on his 3-point prop.

Gilgeous-Alexander isn’t a long-range assassin but he’s been hitting deep shots with more frequency lately.

  • He’s cleared this number in 10 of his last 15 games.
  • SGA is shooting 42.7% from the perimeter over that stretch.
  • He’s 7-4 against this line on the second night of a back-to-back. 

Houston allows the fewest 3-pointers per game in the Western Conference, but that’s baked into this price. 

Gilgeous-Alexander was priced around -150 for yesterday’s game against the San Antonio Spurs, whom he drilled three 3s against.

Key stat: Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 2.4 threes per game since Feb. 1.

Best NBA picks

Duren over 24.5 pts/reb (-115): The Utah Jazz represent a plus scoring matchup for Duren, who’s coming off his best month of the season.

Duren averaged 13.6 points per game in February and cleaned up on the glass for the surging Pistons.

Detroit’s big man looks like a good bet to excel in both areas again tonight. Utah allows the sixth-most points per game to centres, per Betting Pros.

  • Duren has double-digit boards in 12 of his last 15 games.
  • He’s 9-6 vs. this line over that stretch.
  • Since Jan. 1, he’s topped this mark in 17 of 29 games.

Morant over 23.5 points (-118): Morant (shoulder) is questionable but I expect him to feast if he’s out there.

Tonight’s game against the Atlanta Hawks has an enormous total of 253.5 points. It’s by far the biggest of Monday’s slate.

The Atlanta Hawks are 27th in the NBA in points allowed per game and the Memphis Grizzlies are right behind them, ranking 25th.

These teams are No. 1 and 2 in the NBA in pace and Memphis is just outside the top five in offensive rating.

There should be a ton of scoring tonight and Atlanta has been getting torched by point guards.

Gilgeous-Alexander, Cade Cunningham (twice) and Jalen Brunson are among the PGs who have dropped 30-plus points on Atlanta over the last month and several others have cleared this line.

Morant ended February with back-to-back 25-plus-point games and hit that number in five of nine contests last month.

Picks made at 12:37 p.m. ET on 03/03/2025.

Hawks vs. Grizzlies prop picks March 3: Jaren Jackson Jr. draws plus matchup vs. Atlanta

Hawks vs. Grizzlies prop picks

The Memphis Grizzlies look to rebound on Monday night against the sputtering Atlanta Hawks.

The pregame narrative: Memphis is 2-5 in its past seven, but I think a productive game from Jaren Jackson Jr. can get the home team back on track. On Atlanta’s side, I’m fading undersized centre Onyeka Okongwu.

Check out my Hawks vs. Grizzlies prop picks for March 3.

Hawks vs. Grizzlies prop picks

Best Bet: Okongwu under 17.5 points/assists (-132)

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In late January, the Atlanta Hawks made a switch at centre, dropping Okongwu into the starting lineup and shifting 11-year veteran Clint Capela to the bench.

Early returns have been solid for Okongwu, who’s averaging 14.4 points and 3.1 assists (17.5 PA) through 19 starts while shooting 60.9% from the field.

One challenge for the 6-foot-8 Okongwu is that he’s undersized for the centre position. A team like the Grizzlies should be able to contain him.

Memphis has three rotation players who are 6-foot-10 or above, including Jackson (a two-time block champion) and the 7-foot-4 Zach Edey.

By the tale of the tape, Okongwu gives up about 70 pounds and six inches to Edey. That might be the greatest size disparity among starting NBA centres right now.

When the Hawks last faced the Grizzlies, Okongwu missed the game with a knee injury. Memphis neutralized Capela, holding him to just eight points and zero assists.

In fairness, Okongwu is more athletic than Capela and will probably have a better game than that. But I still think the under is the correct side of this points/assists line.

Okongwu has finished under 17.5 PA in 11 of his 19 games as a starter.

Key stat: Memphis allows the fourth-fewest assists per game to opposing centres (3.72), per Betting Pros.

Quick pick

Jackson over 23.5 points (-122): Jackson’s first matchup against the Hawks this season didn’t go well. He got into foul trouble and finished with just 13 points in 25 minutes.

I expect tonight to be different. Why?

  • The Hawks allow the fourth-most points per game to opposing power forwards (24.16).
  • Jackson attempts 51% of his shots from the midrange, which ranks in the 98th percentile in the NBA, per Cleaning the Glass. Atlanta allows the fifth-highest FG% on midrange shots (45.1%).

Stylistically, this is a matchup that has Jackson’s name written all over it.

He’s also coming off a season-high 42 points and has been stellar over a 16-game stretch:

  • 24.5 PPG
  • 51.5 FG%
  • 43.7 3PT%
  • 75.2 FT%

Picks made at 11:05 a.m. ET 03/03/2025.

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Kings vs. Mavericks same-game parlay predictions March 3: Bet on DeRozan, Thompson in +330 SGP

Kings vs. Mavericks predictions

The Dallas Mavericks host the Sacramento Kings on Monday night with each team missing bodies.

The pregame narrative: Nearly all of Dallas’ big men are sidelined while Domantas Sabonis is out for Sacramento. I expect DeMar DeRozan to have a solid game on the glass and Klay Thompson to go off from beyond the arc.

Check out my Kings vs. Mavericks same-game parlay predictions for March 3.

Kings vs. Mavericks predictions

Parlay: DeRozan 4+ rebounds | Thompson 4+ threes | Under 244.5 points (+325)

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DeRozan 4+ rebounds (-167): Fading Dallas’ rebounding abilities has been a theme lately, which isn’t exactly rocket science considering Anthony Davis, Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively are all out.

Typically, my attention would be on targeting the opposing centre — Jonas Valanciunas draws in for Sabonis on Monday — but I’m more confident in DeRozan reaching this attainable milestone.

  • DeRozan is averaging 3.9 rebounds per game this year.
  • He’s hit this mark in 8 of his last 9 games.
  • Dallas allows the 10th-most rebounds per game to opposing power forwards, according to Fantasy Pros.

DeRozan has a prime opportunity to outperform his baseline with all of the injuries in the frontcourt tonight.

NBA SGP picks

Thompson 4+ threes (+105): Thompson has turned back the clock since the all-star break, averaging 4.0 threes per night while shooting 50.0% from beyond the arc.

He’s cleared this total in four of those five games but the success really began when the calendar turned.

  • Thompson is averaging 3.3 threes on 7.7 attempts since Jan. 1 (42.7 3PT%).
  • He’s hit 3+ threes in 17 of 25 games and 4+ threes in 13 of 25 games.

The Kings are tied for the worst 3-point defence (37.6%) in basketball and Thompson shot 5-for-10 from deep against them in just 28 minutes on Feb. 10.

Under 244.5 points (-500): To round out this parlay I’m taking the under on a max-teased game total, lengthening the ticket’s odds from +225 to +330.

The under is 6-4 in the last two meetings between these teams with eight of 10 games falling under this number. The two outliers both required overtime and would have fallen under 235 points otherwise.

The Mavericks have slowed their game down significantly with their injuries, ranking 20th in pace since Feb. 1. The Kings rank 19th in the same span.

The under on this total is 8-2 in the Kings’ last 10 games and 7-3 in the Mavericks’ last 10.

Picks made at 10:15 a.m. ET 03/03/2025.

Pistons vs. Jazz same-game parlay predictions March 3: Expect Cunningham, Detroit to cruise in Utah

Pistons vs. Jazz predictions

The red-hot Detroit Pistons embark on a Western Conference road trip on Monday night with a matchup against the Utah Jazz.

The pregame narrative: Utah has been among the NBA’s worst teams all year, while Detroit has been one of the best in recent weeks. My +380 SGP includes an alt spread in the Pistons’ favour, as well as prop picks on Cade Cunningham and Walker Kessler.

Check out my Pistons vs. Jazz same-game parlay predictions for March 3.

Pistons vs. Jazz predictions

Parlay: Pistons -7.5 | Cunningham 25+ points | Kessler 12+ rebounds (+380)

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Pistons -7.5 (-157): It’s remarkable seeing the difference a year can make.

This time last season, Detroit was 9-51, serving as the butt of most NBA-related jokes. Even Kyle Kuzma was clowning them.

But now, the Pistons look like a surefire playoff team. And they have nine wins in just their past 12 games.

  • In that 12-game span, Detroit has the third-best net rating in the NBA (+11.0) with a 9-3 ATS record.
  • Over the same timeframe, Utah is 4-8 with the 25th-ranked net rating (-6.2).

Detroit is 7-2 ATS as a road favourite this year and has covered a -7.5 spread in eight of its past 10 games overall.

I’m happy backing the team that’s flying high and has a rest advantage (the Jazz played at home last night).

SGP legs

Cunningham 25+ points (-152): The primary culprit for the Jazz’s wheels falling off is their utter absenteeism on defence.

Over its past 15 games, Utah has allowed the second-most points (122.3/game) and the second-most 3s (15.9/game) while forcing the second-fewest turnovers (11.1/game).

Cunningham’s main weakness on offence is that he’s turnover-prone. But that shouldn’t matter as much against the Jazz.

  • Detroit’s all-star point guard has averaged 27.2 PPG over his past 18 and cashed this bet 11 times.
  • He has 25+ points in all five career matchups vs. Utah, including a 33-point performance back in December.

Utah allows the third most PPG to opposing point guards (25.52), per Betting Pros.

Kessler 12+ rebounds (-182): This is too much juice to bet as a straight wager, but it vaults our SGP from +160 to +380. Based on how active Kessler is on the glass, that seems like value to me.

The 7-footer is averaging 12.2 rebounds this season, which ranks fifth among all NBA players.

And he’s been doing his best work since the third week of January:

  • 14.1 RPG
  • 12+ rebounds in 11 of 14 games
  • 13+ rebounds in 4 straight

Detroit has the league’s fourth-highest rebounding rate (51.7%), but that didn’t stop Kessler from hauling in 12 rebounds during their matchup on Dec. 19.

Picks made at 9:20 a.m. ET 03/03/2025.

Clippers vs. Lakers prop picks March 2: Why Luka Doncic, James Harden are worth backing

Clippers vs. Lakers prop picks

The NBA’s Sunday night twin bill features an all-L.A. showdown between the Clippers and Lakers.

The pregame narrative: These teams met two nights ago at Crypto.com Arena, and now they’re running it back at the same venue. Look for Luka Doncic, James Harden and Ivica Zubac all to make their mark on this game.

Check out my Clippers vs. Lakers prop picks for March 2.

Clippers vs. Lakers prop picks

Best bet: Zubac over 12.5 rebounds (-118)

Two nights after Zubac grabbed 16 rebounds against the Lakers, he’s got plus-money odds to go over 12.5. Sign me up for that.

  • The Lakers allow the seventh-most rebounds to opposing centres (15.6/game), per Betting Pros.
  • LAL ranks 20th in rebounding rate (49.3%).
  • Zubac has 64 rebounds in his past four matchups against the Lakers, clearing this prop three times.

Remember, Anthony Davis isn’t a Laker anymore. For as talented as Luka Doncic is, he doesn’t make up the difference for L.A. on the glass.

The Lakers are also expected to miss Rui Hachimura (5.2 RPG) and Austin Reaves (4.2), which cuts down on the volume of capable rebounders Zubac will have to deal with.

Speaking of capable rebounders, Zubac is among the very best in the NBA.

His 12.6 RPG average ranks fourth among all players, ahead of Giannis Antetokounmpo, Victor Wembanyama, and even AD.

The ex-Laker is enjoying a career year, and I expect him to continue making it hurt for his former team.

Key stat: Zubac has averaged 14.3 rebounds in his past six matchups against the Lakers (since April 2023).

Quick pick

Harden over 8.5 assists (-150): There’s more juice on this prop than I’d prefer, but it’s still in a playable range under the circumstances.

Harden has gone over 8.5 assists in eight straight games against the Lakers, including in all three matchups this season.

I expect him to be a particularly active passer tonight with Norman Powell (knee) probable to return after a five-game absence.

In his past 25 games alongside Powell, Harden has averaged 8.8 assists and cashed this bet 15 times.

Doncic over 29.5 points (-110): Doncic has put up some dreadful shooting numbers for the Lakers, and you’d probably expect that to be a reason to fade him. Actually, I’m looking at it the opposite way.

Doncic is shooting just 37.3% from the field and 24.1% from beyond the arc in his first seven games for L.A. But his shot volume is robust, and that’s not going to change.

  • Over his past four games, Doncic has averaged 20.3 field goal attempts. He also has 7+ attempted 3s in all seven games as a Laker.
  • With his shooting woes, Doncic has resorted to drawing more foul calls. He’s attempted 8+ free throws in four straight games.

Despite an underwhelming 40.9 FG% on Friday, Doncic finished with 31 points against the Clippers.

If shots start to fall at a more typical clip, he’ll be around this number routinely — especially with Reaves out.

Picks made at 2:20 p.m. ET 03/02/2025.

Clippers vs. Lakers prop picks March 2: Why Luka Doncic, James Harden are worth backing

Clippers vs. Lakers prop picks

The NBA’s Sunday night twin bill features an all-L.A. showdown between the Clippers and Lakers.

The pregame narrative: These teams met two nights ago at Crypto.com Arena, and now they’re running it back at the same venue. Look for Luka Doncic, James Harden and Ivica Zubac all to make their mark on this game.

Check out my Clippers vs. Lakers prop picks for March 2.

Clippers vs. Lakers prop picks

Best bet: Zubac over 12.5 rebounds (+104)

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Two nights after Zubac grabbed 16 rebounds against the Lakers, he’s got plus-money odds to go over 12.5. Sign me up for that.

  • The Lakers allow the seventh-most rebounds to opposing centres (15.6/game), per Betting Pros.
  • LAL ranks 20th in rebounding rate (49.3%).
  • Zubac has 64 rebounds in his past four matchups against the Lakers, clearing this prop three times.

Remember, Anthony Davis isn’t a Laker anymore. For as talented as Luka Doncic is, he doesn’t make up the difference for L.A. on the glass.

The Lakers are also expected to miss Rui Hachimura (5.2 RPG) and Austin Reaves (4.2), which cuts down on the volume of capable rebounders Zubac will have to deal with.

Speaking of capable rebounders, Zubac is among the very best in the NBA.

His 12.6 RPG average ranks fourth among all players, ahead of Giannis Antetokounmpo, Victor Wembanyama, and even AD.

The ex-Laker is enjoying a career year, and I expect him to continue making it hurt for his former team.

Key stat: Zubac has averaged 14.3 rebounds in his past six matchups against the Lakers (since April 2023).

Quick pick

Harden over 8.5 assists (-136): There’s more juice on this prop than I’d prefer, but it’s still in a playable range under the circumstances.

Harden has gone over 8.5 assists in eight straight games against the Lakers, including in all three matchups this season.

I expect him to be a particularly active passer tonight with Norman Powell (knee) probable to return after a five-game absence.

In his past 25 games alongside Powell, Harden has averaged 8.8 assists and cashed this bet 15 times.

Doncic over 27.5 points (-127): Doncic has put up some dreadful shooting numbers for the Lakers, and you’d probably expect that to be a reason to fade him. Actually, I’m looking at it the opposite way.

Doncic is shooting just 37.3% from the field and 24.1% from beyond the arc in his first seven games for L.A. But his shot volume is robust, and that’s not going to change.

  • Over his past four games, Doncic has averaged 20.3 field goal attempts. He also has 7+ attempted 3s in all seven games as a Laker.
  • With his shooting woes, Doncic has resorted to drawing more foul calls. He’s attempted 8+ free throws in four straight games.

Despite an underwhelming 40.9 FG% on Friday, Doncic finished with 31 points against the Clippers.

If shots start to fall at a more typical clip, he’ll be clearing this number routinely — especially with Reaves out.

Picks made at 1:00 p.m. ET 03/02/2025.

Timberwolves vs. Suns same-game parlay predictions March 2: Bet on Minnesota, Reid in +360 SGP

Timberwolves vs. Suns predictions

The Minnesota Timberwolves and Phoenix Suns collide in a match with significant playoff implications on Sunday.

The pregame narrative: Phoenix’s playoff hopes are dwindling, and I’m backing Minnesota with a handful of points against the struggling Suns. Additionally, I’m taking the over on a teased-up game total and Naz Reid’s points prop.

Check out my Timberwolves vs. Suns same-game parlay predictions for March 2.

Timberwolves vs. Suns predictions

Parlay: Timberwolves +4.5 + Over 233.5 points + Reid over 19.5 points (+360)

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Timberwolves +4.5 (-155): A recent blowout victory from Phoenix isn’t going to make me buy in.

The Suns crushed the New Orleans Pelicans, 125-108, on Friday. But beating up on the Pelicans isn’t necessarily a sign of good things to come.

Looking at the bigger picture, the Suns have really been struggling:

  • The Suns have lost 7 of their past 9 games.
  • Phoenix failed to cover this spread in 8 of its past 9.
  • Phoenix has the worst ATS record in the NBA this season (21-38-1).

Minnesota is 4-6 in its past 10 — including losses in back-to-back contests — but has covered this number in 15 of its last 19 outings.

Injuries are a concern for the Timberwolves with Julius Randle and Rudy Gobert out and Anthony Edwards questionable, but I expect Minny to be competitive in a meaningful matchup.

SGP legs

Over 233.5 points (+106): It’s hard to take the under in a Suns game.

Phoenix ranks a respectable 14th in points per game (114.0) but has been atrocious on the defensive side of the ball.

  • 27th in defensive rating (116.3)
  • 22nd in opponent PPG (115.9)
  • 127.7 PPG allowed in its past 3 games

The Timberwolves have also been surrendering plenty of points lately. They’ve given up 118.7 points per game across their last three due in part to some key injuries.

These two squads have met twice this season and the over on this total cashed both times.

Reid over 19.5 points (-118): Thirdly, I’m going to pick one of Minnesota’s hottest scorers to fill the net.

Injuries to Randle and Gobert have provided Reid with increased opportunities and he hasn’t disappointed. Bettors can be assured that the playing time will be there as he’s averaging 36.8 minutes in his past 12 games.

Reid has totalled 20-plus points in six of his last seven games, with the outlier being an uncharacteristic three-point performance against the Los Angeles Lakers.

The matchup is right for the big man, too. The Suns are allowing the fourth-most points per game to opposing centres (24.93, according to Fantasy Pros.

Picks made at 12:22 p.m. ET on 03/02/2025.

Raptors vs. Magic same-game parlay predictions March 2: Bet on Scottie Barnes in a +325 SGP

Raptors vs. Magic predictions

The Toronto Raptors face the Orlando Magic on Sunday for the first of two matchups in three days in Central Florida.

The pregame narrative: Scottie Barnes has put up strong numbers in both games against Orlando so far this season, and I’m counting on that to continue. In addition to a Barnes prop and an alt total, I’m backing Wendell Carter Jr. in a +325 SGP.

Check out my Raptors vs. Magic same-game parlay predictions for March 2.

Raptors vs. Magic predictions

Parlay: Under 213.5 points | Barnes 30+ PRA | Carter 8+ rebounds (+325)

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Under 213.5 points (-167): Unders are generally a good call when betting on Orlando games, and Toronto seems like a worthy dance partner in that regard.

  • Unders are 38-23 (62.3%) in Magic games this year, per Team Rankings. That includes a 20-11 unders record at home.
  • As for the Raptors, unders are 16-12 (57.1%) when they’re on the road — compared to just 13-19 at home.
  • In Toronto’s past seven road matchups, the average total was just 208.7 points. This under cashed in five of those games.

Dating back to March 2024, unders are 4-0 in the past four matchups between Toronto and Orlando. Both previous meetings this year finished below 205 points.

SGP legs

Barnes 30+ points/rebounds/assists (-150): Orlando is a tough matchup for any stat-stuffers on the other side, but Barnes is well worth a look at this number.

For starters, he cleared this mark in both prior games against the Magic this season:

  • Jan. 3: 32 PRA in 37 minutes
  • Jan. 21: 36 PRA in 34 minutes

Both of those games were in Toronto, mind you, but it’s still encouraging to see success against one of the NBA’s elite defensive squads.

In his past 30 games against any opponent, Barnes has averaged 20.4 points, 7.6 rebounds and 5.7 assists (33.7 PRA).

He’s cashed this milestone in 23 of those 30 games.

Carter 8+ rebounds (-205): Carter was recently re-inserted into the Magic’s starting lineup, and that makes quite a difference for his rebounding potential.

  • As a starter (31 games), Carter is averaging 8.5 rebounds in 27.3 minutes.
  • As a reserve (17 games), he’s averaging 5.6 rebounds in 21.8 minutes.

Jakob Poeltl has been on a minutes restriction in two games since returning from injury. If that continues, Carter will have an even greater opportunity to feast on the glass.

Carter has cashed this prop in both games against the Raptors this year, including once when he grabbed nine rebounds in just 18 minutes off the bench.

In his past six games, he’s averaged 11.0 rebounds and hit this milestone five times.

Picks made at 11:10 a.m. ET 03/02/2025.

Best NBA prop bets March 2: Bet overs on McCollum, Giddey and Adebayo

NBA prop bets

I’m backing three players to fill the net in Sunday’s NBA prop bets.

The pregame narrative: CJ McCollum draws an excellent matchup that he’s taken advantage of in the past, while Bam Adebayo is shooting at a matchup-proof clip right now. Elsewhere, Josh Giddey is on a bona fide heater as a scorer and passer.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for March 2.

NBA prop bets

Best bet: McCollum over 18.5 points (-118)

The Utah Jazz allow the most 3-point attempts per game (40.8), and McCollum has already taken full advantage this season.

In back-to-back home games against the Jazz in January, McCollum shot a combined 11-of-24 from deep. He scored 26 and 45 points, respectively, in those games.

I strongly considered taking McCollum over 2.5 threes (-141) as the best bet, but the price on his points prop was more compelling.

Besides, if McCollum is hitting the over on one of these props he’s likely cashing both.

Of his 26 games this year with three-plus 3s, McCollum scored 20-plus points 22 times. He finished with exactly 19 points in each of the four outliers.

This season, McCollum has scored 20-plus points in 24 of 45 games (53.3%). Utah, which allows the most attempted 3s and the fourth-most points per game (119.3), serves as a stellar matchup for him to cash in again.

Utah also allows the third-most points to opposing point guards (25.62/game), per Betting Pros.

Key stat: McCollum is averaging 30.8 PPG over his past five matchups against Utah, cashing this bet every time.

Best NBA picks

Adebayo over 19.5 points (-130): Shortly after Jimmy Butler played his final game for the Miami Heat, Adebayo started to pick up the offensive slack.

Since Jan. 27, Adebayo has averaged 21.5 points in 13 games. And the production has been steady.

  • 18+ points in 12 of 13
  • 20+ points in 8 of 13

With a career-low 48.2% field goal rate this season, it’s been a down year for Miami’s centre as a scorer. But he’s posted a 54.7 FG% since Butler left, so maybe we’re starting the old Adebayo return.

The New York Knicks, who Adebayo faces tonight, have allowed the 20th-most PPG to centres over their past 30 games (21.07).

Though the matchup isn’t a plus for Adebayo, it’s not daunting enough to deter me from making this pick.

Giddey over 26.5 points/assists (-120): What has gotten into Giddey lately? I’m not sure, but I’m buying in tonight.

Giddey has been going off lately, posting some truly outsized numbers over his past five games:

  • 23.2 PPG
  • 8.8 APG
  • 30+ pts/ast in 5 of 5 games

He’s only averaging 19.7 PA on the season, and he’s been a starter the whole way through.

But with Zach LaVine gone, and both Ayo Dosumnu and Nikola Vucevic missing time recently, there’s been more opportunity for Giddey to shine.

Dosunmu and Vucevic are both out again on Sunday.

Fast-paced teams are helpful for overs, and that’s what we have when the Chicago Bulls face the Indiana Pacers. Both teams rank in the top six in possessions per game.

Picks made at 9:50 a.m. ET on 03/02/2025.

Best NBA prop bets March 2: Bet overs on McCollum, Giddey and Adebayo

NBA prop bets

I’m backing three players to fill the net in Sunday’s NBA prop bets.

The pregame narrative: CJ McCollum draws an excellent matchup that he’s taken advantage of in the past, while Bam Adebayo is shooting at a matchup-proof clip right now. Elsewhere, Josh Giddey is on a bona fide heater as a scorer and passer.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for March 2.

NBA prop bets

Best bet: McCollum over 19.5 points (-104)

Embed: #110594

The Utah Jazz allow the most 3-point attempts per game (40.8), and McCollum has already taken full advantage this season.

In back-to-back home games against the Jazz in January, McCollum shot a combined 11-of-24 from deep. He scored 26 and 45 points, respectively, in those games.

I strongly considered taking McCollum over 2.5 threes (-141) as the best bet, but the price on his points prop was more compelling.

Besides, if McCollum is hitting the over on one of these props he’s likely cashing both.

Of his 26 games this year with three-plus 3s, McCollum scored 20-plus points 22 times. He finished with exactly 19 points in each of the four outliers.

This season, McCollum has scored 20-plus points in 24 of 45 games (53.3%). Utah, which allows the most attempted 3s and the fourth-most points per game (119.3), serves as a stellar matchup for him to cash in again.

Utah also allows the third-most points to opposing point guards (25.62/game), per Betting Pros.

Key stat: McCollum is averaging 30.8 PPG over his past five matchups against Utah, cashing this bet every time.

Best NBA picks

Adebayo 20+ points (-105): Shortly after Jimmy Butler played his final game for the Miami Heat, Adebayo started to pick up the offensive slack.

Since Jan. 27, Adebayo has averaged 21.5 points in 13 games. And the production has been steady.

  • 18+ points in 12 of 13
  • 20+ points in 8 of 13

With a career-low 48.2% field goal rate this season, it’s been a down year for Miami’s centre as a scorer. But he’s posted a 54.7 FG% since Butler left, so maybe we’re starting the old Adebayo return.

The New York Knicks, who Adebayo faces tonight, have allowed the 20th-most PPG to centres over their past 30 games (21.07).

Though the matchup isn’t a plus for Adebayo, it’s not daunting enough to deter me from making this pick.

Giddey over 26.5 points/assists (-107): What has gotten into Giddey lately? I’m not sure, but I’m buying in tonight.

Giddey has been going off lately, posting some truly outsized numbers over his past five games:

  • 23.2 PPG
  • 8.8 APG
  • 30+ pts/ast in 5 of 5 games

He’s only averaging 19.7 PA on the season, and he’s been a starter the whole way through.

But with Zach LaVine gone, and both Ayo Dosumnu and Nikola Vucevic missing time recently, there’s been more opportunity for Giddey to shine.

Dosunmu and Vucevic are both out again on Sunday.

Fast-paced teams are helpful for overs, and that’s what we have when the Chicago Bulls face the Indiana Pacers. Both teams rank in the top six in possessions per game.

Picks made at 9:20 a.m. ET on 03/02/2025.