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Thunder vs. Grizzlies SGP predictions March 5: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander should lead OKC to victory

The Oklahoma City put their stellar road record on the line Wednesday in a matchup against the Memphis Grizzlies.

The pregame narrative: OKC is 23-7 as a visitor and I expect another win for the road favourites tonight. I’m also backing Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Desmond Bane to cash in on some scoring milestones in this +270 same-game parlay.

Check out my Thunder vs. Grizzlies SGP predictions for March 5.

Thunder vs. Grizzlies predictions

Parlay: Thunder -6.5 | Gilgeous-Alexander 30+ points | Bane 20+ points (+275)

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Thunder -6.5 (-175): It’s been a nightmare of a homestand for the Grizzlies, who’ve lost three consecutive games on last-second shots.

Suddenly, the Western Conference standings look a bit different, as Memphis has slid to the No. 4 seed (down from No. 2) in recent days.

Nothing has changed at the top, though. The 50-win Thunder are 10+ games ahead of everybody.

OKC has already asserted its dominance twice this season against Memphis, winning both prior matchups by 10+ points.

As a road team this season, the Thunder’s average point differential is +10.2 points.

Memphis is 1-8-1 ATS in its past 10 games, losing four of those outright as the favourite.

Jaren Jackson Jr. is out with an ankle injury, while Ja Morant has missed back-to-back games and is questionable. The vibes are bad in Grind City right now.

SGP legs

Gilgeous-Alexander 30+ points (-195): Would I normally back someone to score 30-plus points with juice like this? Absolutely not, but Gilgeous-Alexander is having a truly special season.

32.6 PPG (leads the NBA)
30+ points in 38 of 60 games
25+ points in 53 of 60 games

The Grizzlies are considered a poor matchup for opposing point guards, as they allow the fourth-fewest points to the position, according to Betting Pros. But as far as I’m concerned, SGA is matchup-proof.

The Canadian superstar — and MVP frontrunner — has 32 and 35 points, respectively, in two games against Memphis.

SGA is the rare guard who prefers to score in the midrange and around the rim rather than beyond the arc. Without Jackson, a two-time block champ, in the paint for the Grizzlies, SGA will be further incentivized to drive the lane.

Bane 20+ points (-230): The absence of Jackson also means someone else will have to pick up the slack for Memphis in the offensive department. Why not Bane?

His reliability to cash this milestone point total has been on full display for months. Here’s what he’s accomplished since Dec. 21:

21.4 PPG
20+ points in 22 of 29 games
16+ points in 28 of 29 games

Bane has cashed this bet in four of his past five matchups against the Thunder, too — including both this season.

Though he rarely explodes past the 20-point mark, Bane is coming off a season-high 35 points. So his scoring ceiling might be higher than you think.

Picks made at 9:00 a.m. ET 03/05/2025.

Pelicans vs. Lakers SGP predictions March 4: Bet on L.A. to win, Zion Williamson to go off at +360

The Los Angeles Lakers host the New Orleans Pelicans in Tuesday’s NBA nightcap.

The pregame narrative: Los Angeles is rolling and I expect it to pick up a win against a bottom-feeding New Orleans squad tonight. Prop bets on Zion Williamson and Dorian Finney-Smith round out this +360 wager.

Check out my Pelicans vs. Lakers SGP predictions for March 4.

Pelicans vs. Lakers predictions

Parlay: Lakers moneyline | Williamson over 29.5 points and rebounds | Finney-Smith 2+ threes (+360)

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Lakers moneyline (-375): Los Angeles is on a six-game winning streak and now has sole possession of the Western Conference’s No. 2 seed.

The Lakers have beaten some credible competition during this stretch, like the Clippers (twice), Timberwolves and Nuggets.

New Orleans’ playoff hopes are long gone but, to its credit, the team has continued fighting with a 4-1 record since Feb. 23.

I can’t say those wins have been as impressive, though, as the victims were the Victor Wembanyama-less Spurs (twice), Suns and Jazz.

The Lakers are 23-7 at home this season while the Pelicans are an awful 6-25 on the road — there’s no need to overthink this leg.

SGP legs

Williamson over 29.5 points and rebounds (-112): This is a smash play in my books. Williamson is on a tear and draws a solid matchup against the Lakers. Check out his stats over the last 15 games:

25.7 PPG
7.3 RPG
62.0 FG%
30+ points/rebounds in 11 of 15

Los Angeles is missing a legit centre since trading away Anthony Davis. Williamson should feast on the glass and in the paint against an undersized lineup.

The explosive power forward has missed a bunch of games this season but is a force when he plays, ranking in the 100th percentile for usage rate (33.6%), according to Cleaning the Glass.

Williamson is averaging 24.4 points and 6.9 rebounds in nine career games against the Lakers, clearing this mark seven times (and in two of the last three).

Finney-Smith 2+ threes (-136): No one seems happier about the Doncic acquisition than Finney-Smith, who said he’s gotten “butt-naked, wide open” 3-point looks since the trade.

The swingman is averaging 1.6 threes on 37.3% shooting since Feb. 1 and has at least one 3-pointer in 10 of 12 games.

New Orleans is tied for 24th in opponent 3-point percentage (36.7%) and gives up the most 3s per game to opposing power forwards (2.83), according to Fantasy Pros.

Picks made at 3:00 p.m. ET 03/04/2025.

Warriors vs. Knicks prop picks March 4: Look for Steph Curry to stay hot from 3-point line

In Tuesday’s marquee NBA matchup, Stephen Curry and the Golden State Warriors visit the New York Knicks.

The pregame narrative: Curry at Madison Square Garden is a show I wish I had tickets to. I expect the all-time great to cash a 3s milestone, and I’m also looking for OG Anunoby to chip in as a scorer on the Knicks’ side.

Check out my Warriors vs. Knicks prop picks for March 4.

Warriors vs. Knicks prop picks

Best Bet: Curry over 4.5 threes (-150)

Curry is on a 3-point binge right now, which makes this hefty total attainable.

Here’s what Curry’s 3-point production has looked like over the past month:

5.3 makes/game
13.5 attempts/game
39.5 3PT%
5+ threes in 8 of 12 games

Curry is averaging 4.4 threes this season, which leads the NBA. Everybody knows he wants to heave it from long range, and yet he’s still generating plenty of quality looks.

Mitchell Robinson returned to the Knicks’ lineup two games ago, and the 7-footer gives them a defensive boost around the rim. That should also entice Curry to stay active from deep.

Curry has attempted 13-plus 3s in five straight games against the Knicks, averaging 5.4 makes on 14.8 attempts in that span.

Given his track record in this matchup, along with his recent high-volume run, I expect Curry to have every opportunity to cash in tonight.

Key stat: The Knicks allow the highest opponent 3PT% in the NBA (37.6).

Quick pick

Anunoby over 15.5 points (-130): Robinson isn’t the only form of reinforcements for the Knicks. Anunoby returned about two weeks ago after a six-game absence and quickly got back to game speed.

The ex-Raptor has attempted at least 15 shots in three straight games. His points totals in those matchups are 16, 19 and 23.

With Karl-Anthony Towns (personal) listed as questionable tonight, Anunoby could be called upon for another hearty offensive workload. And this matchup is built for him.

Golden State allows the second-most points per game to opposing power forwards (24.44), per Betting Pros.

Also, the Warriors yield the seventh-highest 3PT% on corner 3s (39.9%), according to Cleaning the Glass. Anunoby ranks in the 80th percentile for attempted corner 3s.

Picks made at 11:15 a.m. ET 03/04/2025.

Best NBA prop bets March 4: Back star guards Damian Lillard and Donovan Mitchell

Damian Lillard and Donovan Mitchell headline Tuesday night’s top NBA prop picks.

The pregame narrative: The two guards should take advantage of soft competition and have big offensive nights. I also like Naz Reid to stay active on the glass.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for March 4.

NBA prop bets

Best bet: Lillard over 3.5 threes (-143)

This isn’t a great price to convert four-plus 3-pointers but Lillard finds himself in a plus matchup.

Lillard’s Milwaukee Bucks get the Atlanta Hawks, a poor defensive team playing for the second consecutive night.

Atlanta surrendered 130 points in Monday’s win and now faces a well-rested Bucks team that has been off since Saturday and won six of its last seven games.

Expect Milwaukee to run up the score and for Lillard to be providing a lot of the heavy lifting.

The Bucks point guard has feasted on Atlanta this season:

Feb. 7: 23 points, 4 threes
Dec. 14: 25 points, 5 threes
Dec. 4: 25 points, 5 threes

Lillard has taken 10-plus attempts from 3-point land in three of his last four games, cashing this bet each time he reached double digits.

Volume should be there again tonight. The all-star has attempted 27 shots from beyond the arc in his last two games against the Hawks.

Key stat: Atlanta is 28th in opponent 3-point percentage.

Best NBA picks

Reid over 9.5 rebounds (-118): Don’t be fooled by Reid’s average of 6.1 rebounds per game.

The 25-year-old has cleared this line in five straight games and in seven of his last eight.

Since Feb. 1, when he entered the starting rotation, he’s averaging 9.5 rebounds over 14 games, getting 35.8 minutes a night.

Rudy Gobert remains out for the Minnesota Timberwolves, who get the Philadelphia 76ers on a back-to-back. Gobert’s absence will keep Reid locked in the starting five.

Julius Randle returned Sunday after missing a month but is questionable tonight. There could be a lot of rebounds available to Reid versus the 76ers, who will once again miss Joel Embiid’s presence at the rim.

Philadelphia, which has the lowest rebounding rate in the NBA, was eaten alive on the glass in last night’s loss to the Portland Trail Blazers.

Mitchell over 25.5 points (-118) The Cleveland Cavaliers shooting guard is coming off a 41-point game and steps into a juicy matchup against the Chicago Bulls.

Chicago surrenders 120.4 points per game, trailing only the Washington Wizards for the most in the NBA.

The Bulls allowed 144 points the last time they played the Cavaliers and Mitchell has dismantled Chicago in both meetings this season.

Nov. 15: 37 points, 7 threes
Nov. 13: 36 points, 7 threes

Cleveland’s leading scorer has topped this line in four of five contests since the NBA All-Star Game.

He saw reduced minutes in a 40-point win in the outlier.

Mitchell is cooking ahead of tonight’s showdown vs. the Bulls, who allow the fifth-most points to shooting guards (per Betting Pros).

Picks made at 11:14 a.m. ET on 03/04/2025.

Best NBA prop bets March 4: Back star guards Damian Lillard and Donovan Mitchell

Damian Lillard and Donovan Mitchell headline Tuesday night’s top NBA prop picks.

The pregame narrative: The two guards should take advantage of soft competition and have big offensive nights. I also like Naz Reid to stay active on the glass.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for March 4.

NBA prop bets

Best bet: Lillard over 3.5 threes (-139)

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This isn’t a great price to convert four-plus 3-pointers but Lillard finds himself in a plus matchup.

Lillard’s Milwaukee Bucks get the Atlanta Hawks, a poor defensive team playing for the second consecutive night.

Atlanta surrendered 130 points in Monday’s win and now faces a well-rested Bucks team that has been off since Saturday and won six of its last seven games.

Expect Milwaukee to run up the score and for Lillard to be providing a lot of the heavy lifting.

The Bucks point guard has feasted on Atlanta this season:

Feb. 7: 23 points, 4 threes
Dec. 14: 25 points, 5 threes
Dec. 4: 25 points, 5 threes

Lillard has taken 10-plus attempts from 3-point land in three of his last four games, cashing this bet each time he reached double digits.

Volume should be there again tonight. The all-star has attempted 27 shots from beyond the arc in his last two games against the Hawks.

Key stat: Atlanta is 28th in opponent 3-point percentage.

Best NBA picks

Reid over 9.5 rebounds (+108): Don’t be fooled by Reid’s average of 6.1 rebounds per game.

The 25-year-old has cleared this line in five straight games and in seven of his last eight.

Since Feb. 1, when he entered the starting rotation, he’s averaging 9.5 rebounds over 14 games, getting 35.8 minutes a night.

Rudy Gobert remains out for the Minnesota Timberwolves, who get the Philadelphia 76ers on a back-to-back. Gobert’s absence will keep Reid locked in the starting five.

Julius Randle returned Sunday after missing a month but is questionable tonight. There could be a lot of rebounds available to Reid versus the 76ers, who will once again miss Joel Embiid’s presence at the rim.

Philadelphia, which has the lowest rebounding rate in the NBA, was eaten alive on the glass in last night’s loss to the Portland Trail Blazers.

Mitchell over 26.5 points (-106): The Cleveland Cavaliers shooting guard is coming off a 41-point game and steps into a juicy matchup against the Chicago Bulls.

Chicago surrenders 120.4 points per game, trailing only the Washington Wizards for the most in the NBA.

The Bulls allowed 144 points the last time they played the Cavaliers and Mitchell has dismantled Chicago in both meetings this season.

Nov. 15: 37 points, 7 threes
Nov. 13: 36 points, 7 threes

Cleveland’s leading scorer has topped this line in three of five contests since the NBA All-Star Game.

He landed on 26 points in one of the games where he fell short and saw reduced minutes in a 40-point win in the other.

Mitchell is cooking ahead of tonight’s showdown vs. the Bulls, who allow the fifth-most points to shooting guards (per Betting Pros).

Picks made at 11:14 a.m. ET on 03/04/2025.

Clippers vs. Suns SGP predictions March 4: Bet on Phoenix and Devin Booker in +310 parlay

A long, disappointing road trip finally comes to an end for the Los Angeles Clippers, who face the Phoenix Suns in the desert on Tuesday night.

The pregame narrative: The Suns have struggled quite a bit recently, too, but I still like the home team with a few extra points. This +310 SGP also includes prop bets on Kawhi Leonard and Devin Booker.

Check out my Clippers vs. Suns SGP for March 4.

Clippers vs. Suns predictions

Parlay: Suns +5.5 | Leonard 2+ threes | Booker 3+ threes (+310)

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Suns +5.5 (-167): Phoenix and L.A. are both down in the dumps right now, and I’m not interested in backing either of them to win outright.

But this is a palatable price to back the home team, especially considering how nightmarish the Clippers’ extended road trip has been.

LAC is 2-5 SU and 0-7 ATS in its past seven games (all on the road).

The Clippers haven’t played at home since Feb. 12.

Norman Powell, who missed the final five games in February, re-injured himself last time out and will miss Tuesday’s game.

Phoenix is 3-0 against L.A. this season, and a season sweep is definitely in play. But the Suns are just 2-8 in their past 10 games, so I’d rather bank some points than make an outright prediction.

SGP legs

Leonard 2+ threes (-265): The Suns are a plus matchup for opposing 3-point shooters, and with Powell back on the sidelines, I expect Leonard to take advantage.

Over its past 15 games, Phoenix has allowed the second-most 3s per game (15.3) on the fourth-most attempts (41.7).

Leonard is a career 39.1% shooter from deep — and he’s right on his career average this season — so efficiency isn’t the issue.

His 3-point shot volume has been a bit sporadic in the past, but it’s sitting in a nice spot over his past five games:

3.0 makes
6.8 attempts
44.1 3PT%
2+ threes in 5 of 5 games

Powell missed four of those games. I don’t view that as a coincidence.

Booker 3+ threes (-106): Although this is easily the riskiest leg of the SGP, Booker has cashed this milestone with impressive regularity in recent weeks.

Dating back to Jan. 22, Booker has 3+ threes in 11 of 18 games.

He has attempted 7+ threes in 14 of those matchups, which is a solid floor in terms of shot volume.

Bradley Beal is questionable for tonight, and if he’s absent, Booker should have even more 3-point opportunities. But either way, I know this is a matchup he can thrive in.

Booker has cashed this milestone in four straight matchups against the Clippers, shooting 19-for-36 from deep in that span.

Picks made at 10:40 a.m. ET 03/04/2025.

Raptors vs. Magic SGP predictions March 4: Back Paolo Banchero and Cole Anthony at +350

For the second time in three days, the Toronto Raptors take on the Magic in Orlando.

The pregame narrative: Toronto won a rock fight, 104-102, on Sunday and I expect another low-scoring affair in Round II. Prop bets on Paolo Banchero and Cole Anthony round out this +350 wager.

Check out my Raptors vs. Magic SGP predictions for March 4.

Raptors vs. Magic predictions

Parlay: Under 215 points | Banchero 25+ points | Anthony 1+ threes (+350)

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Under 215 points (-215): Orlando is one of the most unders-friendly teams in the NBA, cashing the wager at a 62.9% rate (second to only the Charlotte Hornets).

There are a few reasons for that, which I’ll lay out here:

Orlando plays at the second-slowest pace (possessions per 48 minutes) in the league.
It also has the second-best defensive rating and the third-worst offensive rating.
The squad attempts the eighth-fewest 3s per game (35.3).

Toronto is also a good team to target on unders. It ranks 29th in 3-point attempts (32.8/game) and makes (11.4/game) — the only team making fewer 3s on a nightly basis is Orlando (10.8).

This game will be contested inside the arc and at a slow pace, meaning fans won’t see a track meet at Kia Center.

The under is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings between the Magic and Raptors, cashing in five straight.

SGP legs

Banchero 25+ points (-108): Someone is going to have to score in this matchup, and my bet’s on Banchero.

The power forward fell just shy of this total on Sunday, scoring 23 points with just nine field goal attempts. He went 12-for-15 from the charity stripe and played 39:08 in the loss.

That was a weird game. I don’t expect Banchero to go to the line as often but he should be taking way more than nine shots in the rematch.

Banchero averaged 28.3 points and 21.3 field goal attempts in his previous seven games, clearing this line four times while landing on 24 points once.

Toronto allows the 13th-most PPG to opposing power forwards, according to Fantasy Pros.

Anthony 1+ threes (-335): I mentioned how little each team shoots the deep ball, but this isn’t asking for much. It also brings this wager’s odds up from +205 to +350.

Anthony has cleared this line in 18 of his last 20 games and is shooting a respectable 37.1% from beyond the arc since Jan. 1.

The point guard has played 14 games against the Raptors in his career, cashing this bet 13 times while shooting 41.8% from deep.

Picks made at 10:00 a.m. ET 03/04/2025.

Warriors vs. Knicks prop picks March 4: Look for Steph Curry to stay hot from 3-point line

In Tuesday’s marquee NBA matchup, Stephen Curry and the Golden State Warriors visit the New York Knicks.

The pregame narrative: Curry at Madison Square Garden is a show I wish I had tickets to. I expect the all-time great to cash a 3s milestone, and I’m also looking for OG Anunoby to chip in as a scorer on the Knicks’ side.

Check out my Warriors vs. Knicks prop picks for March 4.

Warriors vs. Knicks prop picks

Best Bet: Curry 5+ threes (-130)

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Curry is on a 3-point binge right now, which makes this hefty total attainable.

Here’s what Curry’s 3-point production has looked like over the past month:

5.3 makes/game
13.5 attempts/game
39.5 3PT%
5+ threes in 8 of 12 games

Curry is averaging 4.4 threes this season, which leads the NBA. Everybody knows he wants to heave it from long range, and yet he’s still generating plenty of quality looks.

Mitchell Robinson returned to the Knicks’ lineup two games ago, and the 7-footer gives them a defensive boost around the rim. That should also entice Curry to stay active from deep.

Curry has attempted 13-plus 3s in five straight games against the Knicks, averaging 5.4 makes on 14.8 attempts in that span.

Given his track record in this matchup, along with his recent high-volume run, I expect Curry to have every opportunity to cash in tonight.

Key stat: The Knicks allow the highest opponent 3PT% in the NBA (37.6).

Quick pick

Anunoby over 16.5 points (-122): Robinson isn’t the only form of reinforcements for the Knicks. Anunoby returned about two weeks ago after a six-game absence and quickly got back to game speed.

The ex-Raptor has attempted at least 15 shots in three straight games. His points totals in those matchups are 16, 19 and 23.

With Karl-Anthony Towns (personal) listed as questionable tonight, Anunoby could be called upon for another hearty offensive workload. And this matchup is built for him.

Golden State allows the second-most points per game to opposing power forwards (24.44), per Betting Pros.

Also, the Warriors yield the seventh-highest 3PT% on corner 3s (39.9%), according to Cleaning the Glass. Anunoby ranks in the 80th percentile for attempted corner 3s.

Picks made at 9:15 a.m. ET 03/04/2025.

Hawks vs. Grizzlies prop picks March 3: Jaren Jackson Jr. draws plus matchup vs. Atlanta

The Memphis Grizzlies look to rebound on Monday night against the sputtering Atlanta Hawks.

The pregame narrative: Memphis is 2-5 in its past seven, but I think a productive game from Jaren Jackson Jr. can get the home team back on track. On Atlanta’s side, I’m fading undersized centre Onyeka Okongwu.

Check out my Hawks vs. Grizzlies prop picks for March 3.

Hawks vs. Grizzlies prop picks

Best Bet: Okongwu under 18.5 points/assists (-130)

In late January, the Atlanta Hawks made a switch at centre, dropping Okongwu into the starting lineup and shifting 11-year veteran Clint Capela to the bench.

Early returns have been solid for Okongwu, who’s averaging 14.4 points and 3.1 assists (17.5 PA) through 19 starts while shooting 60.9% from the field.

One challenge for the 6-foot-8 Okongwu is that he’s undersized for the centre position. A team like the Grizzlies should be able to contain him.

Memphis has three rotation players who are 6-foot-10 or above, including Jackson (a two-time block champion) and the 7-foot-4 Zach Edey.

By the tale of the tape, Okongwu gives up about 70 pounds and six inches to Edey. That might be the greatest size disparity among starting NBA centres right now.

When the Hawks last faced the Grizzlies, Okongwu missed the game with a knee injury. Memphis neutralized Capela, holding him to just eight points and zero assists.

In fairness, Okongwu is more athletic than Capela and will probably have a better game than that. But I still think the under is the correct side of this points/assists line.

Okongwu has finished under 17.5 PA in 11 of his 19 games as a starter.

Key stat: Memphis allows the fourth-fewest assists per game to opposing centres (3.72), per Betting Pros.

Quick pick

Jackson over 23.5 points (-125): Jackson’s first matchup against the Hawks this season didn’t go well. He got into foul trouble and finished with just 13 points in 25 minutes.

I expect tonight to be different. Why?

The Hawks allow the fourth-most points per game to opposing power forwards (24.16).

Jackson attempts 51% of his shots from the midrange, which ranks in the 98th percentile in the NBA, per Cleaning the Glass. Atlanta allows the fifth-highest FG% on midrange shots (45.1%).

Stylistically, this is a matchup that has Jackson’s name written all over it.

He’s also coming off a season-high 42 points and has been stellar over a 16-game stretch:

24.5 PPG
51.5 FG%
43.7 3PT%
75.2 FT%

Picks made at 1:55 p.m. ET 03/03/2025.

Best NBA prop bets March 3: Back Gilgeous-Alexander, Morant and Duren on Monday night

The new NBA week kicks off with seven games and I’m dialling up three prop picks for the evening’s slate.

The pregame narrative: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has stepped up his 3-point shooting and headlines the plays. Fellow star guard Ja Morant is also featured alongside Detroit Pistons big man Jalen Duren.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for March 3.

NBA prop bets

Best bet: Gilgeous-Alexander over 1.5 threes (-138)

Gilgeous-Alexander is projected for another big scoring night on a back-to-back against the Houston Rockets.

The Oklahoma City Thunder superstar’s points line is 31.5. He’s scored 30-plus points in well over half of his games and leads the NBA in PPG.

Assuming he can flirt with 30 again, I like him to can a couple of triples and believe there’s value on his 3-point prop.

Gilgeous-Alexander isn’t a long-range assassin but he’s been hitting deep shots with more frequency lately.

He’s cleared this number in 10 of his last 15 games.

SGA is shooting 42.7% from the perimeter over that stretch.

He’s 7-4 against this line on the second night of a back-to-back.

Houston allows the fewest 3-pointers per game in the Western Conference, but that’s baked into this price.

Gilgeous-Alexander was priced around -150 for yesterday’s game against the San Antonio Spurs, whom he drilled three 3s against.

Key stat: Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 2.4 threes per game since Feb. 1.

Best NBA picks

Duren over 24.5 pts/reb (-125): The Utah Jazz represent a plus scoring matchup for Duren, who’s coming off his best month of the season.

Duren averaged 13.6 points per game in February and cleaned up on the glass for the surging Pistons.

Detroit’s big man looks like a good bet to excel in both areas again tonight. Utah allows the sixth-most points per game to centres, per Betting Pros.

Duren has double-digit boards in 12 of his last 15 games.

He’s 9-6 vs. this line over that stretch.

Since Jan. 1, he’s topped this mark in 17 of 29 games.

Morant over 23.5 points (-125): Morant (shoulder) is questionable but I expect him to feast if he’s out there.

Tonight’s game against the Atlanta Hawks has an enormous total of 253.5 points. It’s by far the biggest of Monday’s slate.

The Atlanta Hawks are 27th in the NBA in points allowed per game and the Memphis Grizzlies are right behind them, ranking 25th.

These teams are No. 1 and 2 in the NBA in pace and Memphis is just outside the top five in offensive rating.

There should be a ton of scoring tonight and Atlanta has been getting torched by point guards.

Gilgeous-Alexander, Cade Cunningham (twice) and Jalen Brunson are among the PGs who have dropped 30-plus points on Atlanta over the last month and several others have cleared this line.

Morant ended February with back-to-back 25-plus-point games and hit that number in five of nine contests last month.

Picks made at 12:37 p.m. ET on 03/03/2025.